The academic year, for undergrad programs at least, is divided into the Fall trimester, Winter trimester, Spring half-trimester and Summer half-trimester. While the registrar's office refers to these periods as "semesters" and "half-semesters," in length, they are trimesters. This is why Michigan's winter break is atypically short compared to other universities and why the school year for those not taking Spring or Summer classes ends in April, as opposed to May. If you compare Michigan's academic calendar to say MSU's, you'll see the difference.
I applied in 1999 for Fall 2000 admission to LS&A with a 3.6 GPA and a 30 on the ACT, so my stats seem similar to your son's.
My freshman year, I came across an online article from The Michigan Review titled something like, "Can You Get Into Michigan?" The article included a questionnaire that was supposedly identical to the scoring rubric used by admissions at that time. I completed the form, and when my score was computed, I was one point over the cutoff for admission. What put me over the top was an additional few points for attending a superior high school (apparently admissions maintains a list of such high schools). I went to, arguably, the most rigorous college prep in a small southern state (which isn't saying much considering it's the south, but I digress), so I assumed it would receive the bonus.
The point is: in 1999 my admission was essentially a toss-up. Given that M’s admission standards have increased since then, I would definitely say your son’s shot of acceptance is at best 50%, a tossup. That said, he certainly has a shot.
Also, you shouldn’t dismiss out-of-state public universities based on cost. Many good schools give academic scholarships to students with credentials similar to your son’s. I was offered sizable scholarships at both the University of Wisconsin and the University of Maryland. I would strongly encourage your son to consider Wisconsin, Illinois and Penn State. They are all fine schools, and their academic reputations are far better than MSU’s.
As of a few years ago, there was a random sofa at the end of an obscure hall on an upper floor in Lorch. After 5 PM, it was an amazingly comfortable, quiet and secluded place to power through 100-200 pages of reading with zero distractions.
If it's still there, I highly recommend it.
Favorite drink of A Clockwork Orange author Anthony Burgess.
Mix in a pint glass one shot each of gin, whiskey, rum, port and brandy. Fill the rest of the way with stout, then top with a splash of champagne. Very tasty.
Of this magical drink, Burgess supposedly wrote, "It tastes very smooth, induces a somewhat metaphysical elation, and rarely leaves a hangover."
I can confirm the metaphysical elation; however, the no hangover part is a total crock.
I jokingly shaved down to an ill-grown, dirt-stache three weekends ago but abandoned ship prior to a Monday-morning, company-wide presentation.
Since then, I've been growing a fine, full beard, with plans of shaping it into a luscious stache next weekend for a Lake Michigan get-together. So, count me in; I'll be among the braves souls getting an early start.
By the way, I just want to point out that I work in NYC for a high-end fashion company, where my total lack of style is barely tolerated. Thank goodness there's a shortage of qualified SAS programmers in the world. So anyway, I will grow a mustache for Michigan, employment be damned.
The f-bomb is one of the most expressive words in the English language. No other word so eloquently and economically expresses the range of human experience, from anger to joy, sadness to excitement.
From Ulysses by James Joyce, arguably the greatest English-language novel ever written:
"I'll wring the neck of any fucker says a word against my fucking king."
If the f-bomb is okay with James Joyce, it's okay with me, so leave Rich Rod alone.
Thanks for all the positive feedback. Now that I know there is an audience for this stuff, I'm definitely going to proceed with building out the Monte Carlo model. I'm also going to amend the win probabilities per all of your suggestions.
I think Brian's '08 prediction was more on target than it might seem at first glance.
He said 8-4, but his individual game predictions really only come out to 7-5 in the middle case and 6-6 in the worst case. I think he let his mgoheart get in the way of his head when he made the final call.
And don't forget, M could have easily finished 6-6 or 7-5 if close games like Utah, Toledo, Purdue or NW had gone in M's favor.
At the end of the entry, I suggest randomizing whether the probability for a given Bernoulli trial is drawn from the worst, middle or best case, to simulate luck or tragedy. In some simulations there would be multiple-game stretches of worst-case probabilities, similar to multiple games with injured players. Would this address your concern?
The only other way I can think of to address your concern is manipulating probabilities up or down based on whether the previous game is a win or loss, but I think that would be a flawed model, ignoring the randomness and independence that occurs in the real world. Functionally, it would just increase the probabilities of extreme outcomes (i.e. very high and very low win totals), which is not what is observed in actual NCAA seasons, where the majority of teams fall in the middle.
This whole model is built off of his detailed pre-season predictions, which don't exist prior to '06 (as far as I can tell). I would love to check out '05, '04, '03, etc. if someone can point me to his "auto win," "win," "tossup," "loss," "auto loss" predictions for those seasons.
My thinking is that M has a far better chance of beating OSU than Delaware State does of beating M. So, the difference between "Win or Ann Arbor Burns" and "Eh ... Not So Much" is a blatant bias, but I think it's justified.
As for "Probably Not" and "Should Be Victory," I totally get what you guys are saying. I just adjusted the probabilities in the spreadsheet where I'm tracking all of this.
The new, more balanced probabilities are:
Probably Not
Worst Case: 20%
Middle Case: 25%
Best Case: 30%
Should Be Victory
Worst Case: 70%
Middle Case: 75%
Best Case: 80%
After incorporating these new probabilities, the expected number of wins does not change significantly, and each still rounds to the same number: 6 in the worst case, 7 in the middle case and 8 in the best case. I'll try these with the simulation code later tonight and let you know if there is a major change.
Yes, I explicitly used Brian's predictions from his various pre-season wrap-ups (all hyperlinked in the diary) to categorize the likelihood of victory, as presumed pre-season, before any snaps are taken. He knows more about M football than anyone I know, so he's my authority.
Recent Comments
The academic year, for undergrad programs at least, is divided into the Fall trimester, Winter trimester, Spring half-trimester and Summer half-trimester. While the registrar's office refers to these periods as "semesters" and "half-semesters," in length, they are trimesters. This is why Michigan's winter break is atypically short compared to other universities and why the school year for those not taking Spring or Summer classes ends in April, as opposed to May. If you compare Michigan's academic calendar to say MSU's, you'll see the difference.
I applied in 1999 for Fall 2000 admission to LS&A with a 3.6 GPA and a 30 on the ACT, so my stats seem similar to your son's.
My freshman year, I came across an online article from The Michigan Review titled something like, "Can You Get Into Michigan?" The article included a questionnaire that was supposedly identical to the scoring rubric used by admissions at that time. I completed the form, and when my score was computed, I was one point over the cutoff for admission. What put me over the top was an additional few points for attending a superior high school (apparently admissions maintains a list of such high schools). I went to, arguably, the most rigorous college prep in a small southern state (which isn't saying much considering it's the south, but I digress), so I assumed it would receive the bonus.
The point is: in 1999 my admission was essentially a toss-up. Given that M’s admission standards have increased since then, I would definitely say your son’s shot of acceptance is at best 50%, a tossup. That said, he certainly has a shot.
Also, you shouldn’t dismiss out-of-state public universities based on cost. Many good schools give academic scholarships to students with credentials similar to your son’s. I was offered sizable scholarships at both the University of Wisconsin and the University of Maryland. I would strongly encourage your son to consider Wisconsin, Illinois and Penn State. They are all fine schools, and their academic reputations are far better than MSU’s.