Yeah, dude was arguably our best TE coming into this season, at least I certainly thought he was. Unless there’s some reason to believe the injury would’ve noticeably impacted his game, I sincerely doubt he would’ve been fighting for playing time upon his return; i think it’s more likely he would’ve ended up like Ronnie, meaning right back the #1 option at his position.
Few years ago this was regarded as the best division in all of CFB, and Joell Klatt was still pushing that mantra early in the season, though it’s fairly dubious with MSU being in their current predicament.
There’s been a few other years where it was considered a real possibility if 2 of the big 4 had actually managed to go 12-0/11-1.
Michigan’s postgame win expectancy was 83% according to S&P+, so the exact opposite of a fluky win.
I think M fans who watched through then Don Brown years understand the flaws in just looking at the efficiency metrics outside of explosive plays. Yeah you can point to it and say “see look, OSU shut M down outside just a *handful* of plays” but then how would those efficiency metrics have looked if they weren’t playing boom or bust in the first place? In order to have looked that good on a play by play basis, OSU had to make themselves susceptible to the big play *by design*.
Many other’s have mentioned it, but Bud’s also obsessed with the blue chip ratio, which IMO is fairly reliable when looking at the best 1 or 2 teams per year, but doesn’t seem like particularly useful analysis on a game by game basis. Also Dabo’s 2 titles at Clemson would seem to indicate that a team at Michigan’s talent level should be able to compete against the OSU’s of the world, as those Clemson teams both had talent composites closer to this year’s Michigan squad.
I mean Michigan has two wins by double digits over 2 top 10 teams. I’m not saying it’s my position, but calling it “nonsensical” is to me, nonsensical.
100% S&P+ had us rated higher in 2016, not sure if it was the final ranking but i’m fairly certain it was the case going into The Game; also think we may have even been ranked higher at some point in time before The Game in 2015 though that one i’m not certain of. One thing that probably contributed was that the rosters were closer from a recruiting ranking perspective than they have been recently and S&P+ factors that in. That 2015 team also had a streak of shutouts and both years S&P+ had M rated as elite on defense.
JJ was nothing if not poised in the 4th quarter against Illinois. In my mind he’s up for the moment. That’s not to say I expect some miraculous performance from him, but I don’t think he’s the type to get rattled and lose the game.
Do pundits ever get bored of this particular “prediction” in football or no? I feel like it’s tantamount to saying “whoever scores the most points will win”. Like sure, it’s correct more often than not, but man if it’s not the most tired truism in all of sports — at least the ones i watch.
I think even most OSU fans agree that the receiver play outside of Marv hasn’t been at level of last years group. Seems to be the general opinion i’ve read elsewhere on the web. I think it’s particularly apparent in high pressure situations where it seems like CJ tends to tunnel in on MHJ whereas last year that wasn’t really a thing; he had 3 guys who were all equally reliable at making circus catches or winning against coverage.
The flipside to that is any one of the non-Marv guys are still likely better than any receiver we’ve faced, and are particularly consistent with the the fadeball/go-route stuff our guys like to get beat on, but there’s at least some chance that an over reliance on one guy works in Michigan’s favor. Watching some of that Maryland game kinda reminded me of the Staff/Megatron Lions at times.
Down 2 of his top 3 receiving targets, 2 starting OL, the top 2 running backs, against one of the best secondaries in the conference (likely better than OSU’s) and in suboptimal (though certainly not the worst) throwing conditions JJ did just enough to help his team win. Needed help from his kicker, and help from his defense, but got very little help from the running game late.
Missed his fair share of throws, but also threw his fair share of darts into tight man coverage, and had a few more dimes dropped by the receivers in critical moments. Even on his misses they were mostly the right read, if not always the absolute *best* read; but even NFL starters don’t always get to the best read on any given play.
JJ certainly deserves criticisms for the things he does poorly, but he also deserves credit for the things he does well; this game had a mixture of both.
I feel like all season the question has been “can we win if we’re not able to rely on the running game?”. Well to me, seeing as your Michigan Wolverines are currently sitting at 11-0 and not 10-1, i’d say the answer is yes. Maybe not an emphatic yes, or the type of yes that makes us certain they’ll win The Game, but a yes nonetheless.
If JJ was “really bad “ Michigan would not have won this game - point blank. Not going to say he was good, but there are stages in between good and “really bad”. The team had no running game to speak of for most of the second half, yet still managed to get in field goal range enough times to win; against what is probably the 2nd or 3rd best secondary in the conference.
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Yeah, dude was arguably our best TE coming into this season, at least I certainly thought he was. Unless there’s some reason to believe the injury would’ve noticeably impacted his game, I sincerely doubt he would’ve been fighting for playing time upon his return; i think it’s more likely he would’ve ended up like Ronnie, meaning right back the #1 option at his position.
Sauce Gardner’s another Detroit product too
Few years ago this was regarded as the best division in all of CFB, and Joell Klatt was still pushing that mantra early in the season, though it’s fairly dubious with MSU being in their current predicament.
There’s been a few other years where it was considered a real possibility if 2 of the big 4 had actually managed to go 12-0/11-1.
No way you’re talking about that 2015 team
Real murderer’s row there
Michigan’s postgame win expectancy was 83% according to S&P+, so the exact opposite of a fluky win.
I think M fans who watched through then Don Brown years understand the flaws in just looking at the efficiency metrics outside of explosive plays. Yeah you can point to it and say “see look, OSU shut M down outside just a *handful* of plays” but then how would those efficiency metrics have looked if they weren’t playing boom or bust in the first place? In order to have looked that good on a play by play basis, OSU had to make themselves susceptible to the big play *by design*.
Many other’s have mentioned it, but Bud’s also obsessed with the blue chip ratio, which IMO is fairly reliable when looking at the best 1 or 2 teams per year, but doesn’t seem like particularly useful analysis on a game by game basis. Also Dabo’s 2 titles at Clemson would seem to indicate that a team at Michigan’s talent level should be able to compete against the OSU’s of the world, as those Clemson teams both had talent composites closer to this year’s Michigan squad.
I mean Michigan has two wins by double digits over 2 top 10 teams. I’m not saying it’s my position, but calling it “nonsensical” is to me, nonsensical.
Michigan’s as a good a candidate as anybody.
100% S&P+ had us rated higher in 2016, not sure if it was the final ranking but i’m fairly certain it was the case going into The Game; also think we may have even been ranked higher at some point in time before The Game in 2015 though that one i’m not certain of. One thing that probably contributed was that the rosters were closer from a recruiting ranking perspective than they have been recently and S&P+ factors that in. That 2015 team also had a streak of shutouts and both years S&P+ had M rated as elite on defense.
JJ was nothing if not poised in the 4th quarter against Illinois. In my mind he’s up for the moment. That’s not to say I expect some miraculous performance from him, but I don’t think he’s the type to get rattled and lose the game.
Do pundits ever get bored of this particular “prediction” in football or no? I feel like it’s tantamount to saying “whoever scores the most points will win”. Like sure, it’s correct more often than not, but man if it’s not the most tired truism in all of sports — at least the ones i watch.
I think even most OSU fans agree that the receiver play outside of Marv hasn’t been at level of last years group. Seems to be the general opinion i’ve read elsewhere on the web. I think it’s particularly apparent in high pressure situations where it seems like CJ tends to tunnel in on MHJ whereas last year that wasn’t really a thing; he had 3 guys who were all equally reliable at making circus catches or winning against coverage.
The flipside to that is any one of the non-Marv guys are still likely better than any receiver we’ve faced, and are particularly consistent with the the fadeball/go-route stuff our guys like to get beat on, but there’s at least some chance that an over reliance on one guy works in Michigan’s favor. Watching some of that Maryland game kinda reminded me of the Staff/Megatron Lions at times.
Down 2 of his top 3 receiving targets, 2 starting OL, the top 2 running backs, against one of the best secondaries in the conference (likely better than OSU’s) and in suboptimal (though certainly not the worst) throwing conditions JJ did just enough to help his team win. Needed help from his kicker, and help from his defense, but got very little help from the running game late.
Missed his fair share of throws, but also threw his fair share of darts into tight man coverage, and had a few more dimes dropped by the receivers in critical moments. Even on his misses they were mostly the right read, if not always the absolute *best* read; but even NFL starters don’t always get to the best read on any given play.
JJ certainly deserves criticisms for the things he does poorly, but he also deserves credit for the things he does well; this game had a mixture of both.
I feel like all season the question has been “can we win if we’re not able to rely on the running game?”. Well to me, seeing as your Michigan Wolverines are currently sitting at 11-0 and not 10-1, i’d say the answer is yes. Maybe not an emphatic yes, or the type of yes that makes us certain they’ll win The Game, but a yes nonetheless.
If JJ was “really bad “ Michigan would not have won this game - point blank. Not going to say he was good, but there are stages in between good and “really bad”. The team had no running game to speak of for most of the second half, yet still managed to get in field goal range enough times to win; against what is probably the 2nd or 3rd best secondary in the conference.