Updating projections as we go along and get material new info and changes.  This will be version 4; future updates will happen on an as needed basis.

• V3.0 (12/9)
• V2.0 (11/25)
• Way too Early Edition (6/03)

Working framework

• Lorenz indicated Michigan has now signaled they have 27 spots (not 28 as we all assumed)
• 23 current commits.
• Various peeps with premium access say we will grayshirt here or there, so I made some projections with that in mind.  I grayshirted 1 player.  That knocked down class to 22* (*grayshirt is still part of class but doesnt count against scholarship until January).
• We will have attrition from our current recruits, so I took best guesses and knocked out 2 from here. That knocked current class down to 20.

Changes since last update

• RB Kareem Walker went from "projected in class" to "committment".
• LB Devin Bush Jr. went from "projected in class" to "committment".
• WR Nate Johnson came out of nowhere to "committment".
• LB David Reese went from "likely decommittment" to "he gone".
• TE Chase Allen was offered and has been immediately moved to "projected in class".
• RB Kingston Davis and WR/DB (??) Ahmir Mitchell are signed and in the class, EE.

Section 1 deals with current commits - who is staying and who is going. And who is going to open a spot by grayshirting. I listed us with 20 immediate scholarships and 1 grayshirt - with 2 decommits. Will discuss below chart.

BOLD = locked in, signed

Comments

• David Reese was an obvious projected decommit and that finally happened; he is set to announced tomorrow and it looks like Florida which sets up years of comparisons between him and Bush.  That said Bush is important on a broader scale in terms of striking into the heart of FL and getting a top 250 type recruit - will increase talk from locals about coming north to Michigan.  Also a top end 2017 CB prospect plays at Flanagan.  But I digress. 
• The other 2 decommits could come from just about any players ranked below 600, so I picked 2.  I feel Kiante Enis (who noted in a story a few weeks back was not getting much contact from UM) is even more likely to decommit now than last 2 recaps as he had an official to Indiana this past weekend, while fellow Indiana types came up to Michigan on visits.  I continue to have Rashad Weaver as the other - he visited Temple a few weeks ago.  
• Antwaine Richardon visited last week and will not be EE but seems in the class no matter what.  I cant imagine Jim kicking out Gil and Metellus at this point - bad optics and we want a FL pipeline scool.  McKeon is a TE and we look to be missing on the 3 top TE targets (Upshur, Nauta, Mathis) so I imagine he stays.  That leaves Sir Patrick Scott or Dytarious Johnson - could see maybe 1 bumped as well - we are recruiting a lot of players at Scott's position and some rumors on boards about Johnson's grades.  But for now I went with the 2 listed above as decommits.
• I am going with Josh Metellus as a grayshirt... as a guess.

Section 2 is who we will land and who we will miss on. This is based on trying to reverse engineer - obviously these things can change on a dime. I cheated here a bit by saying Quinn Nordin will be part of the class and decommit from PSU and go to UM despite having to pay out of pocket for a semester.  Maybe a stretch but he is a Michigan kid and hey Harbaugh or Franklin for 4-5 years? So this would take us to 29 total commits... 2 grayshirts plus 27 normal. 

Comments on Projected "YES"

• This list is quickly shrinking as less spots are left.  If Nordin / Metellus are grayshirts AND we get 2 decommits, 7 spots remain.  If less grayshirts and/or less decommits than less spots of course.  
• I've split the "YES" into 2 categories - one UM feels like a clear leader or flip candidate and then more foggy types.
• Mitchell has indicated a new yes is coming soon ("end of week").
• Gary visits in January and this battle goes down to the wire due to SEC teams involved but at this point he really seems like UM's to lose.  Wiltfong says Ole Miss is probably top competition with Gary's friend and #2 overall player Greg Little committing this week.
• Davis comments post official to OSU were less than giddy - sounded like he did not get the attention he wanted and he seems less "all in on UM" vs what he once was. But at this point I still have him in the class.  A few weeks ago Lorenz said UM would prefer a tackle (Delance) over a guard (Davis) but he changed that to either would work last week.  Not sure if that means there is room for both or first come first serve.  Maybe he should be in "less certainty" bucket after last visit.
• Allen was just offered and becomes an immediate projected yes as his best offer til 3 days ago was Minnesota.  FSU offered yest in a fit of butt hurt and apparently his FG kicker from ig school is headed to FSU but... we'll go with yes.
• Hill and Corley announce together @ some point - most assume UM for Hill and MSU for Corley.  Loss of Durkin seemed to sting Hill.  MSU very involved here.
• Jones has had UM as a favorite seemingly as long as Davis; it appears to be down to UM vs ND and UM is putting a hard core press on him with multiple visits the past few weeks.  50/50 rigth now it seems.
• I have Nordin as a grayshirt - he seems destined in the class as he has now removed PSU commit from twitter and seemingly lives in Ann Arbor on weekends. 
• Brown seems down to UM v Texas.  Brown's dad seems to like UM.  Not much visibility here, I am guessing on this one.

[hi Jessica]

Comments on Projected "Maybes / No"

• I've split the "No's" into various groups that are subjective.  Some no's could be yes's of course.   Focusing on most potentially yes guys at top.
• Delance visited last weekend and it seemed to go well - battle seems to be with Texas and LSU. No movement on crystal ballz in UM favor at this time.
• UM is putting a full court press on flipping Long from Stanford; still seems 50/50.  Could be silent commit Ahmir hints at?
• Crawford is really quiet so impossible to read - the longer he does not commit to Oregon which is his dream school, I suppose better for UM.  UM was out to visit in past week.  Looks like he will be EE so we should know soon.  I'd love if he was the silent commit Ahmir hints at?  Lots of UM love on his twitter.
• Jackson looks to be a UM fav but Durkin loss may have hurt with him (even Bush said Durkin loss "hurt").  A lot of big players are still involved here.
• Fuller might be a dream but another candidate for Ahmir silent commit as he is from Jersey.  That said OSU is the supposed leader.  UM seems to be in his top 5.
• Murphy has scheduled a Jan visit.  Not sure if DE is a top priority... if other players fall through maybe you go hard at him late?
• Onwuzurike has been a mystery - starting to see some crystal ballz to Washington on him.  Will name a top 4 soon supposedly.  If UM is in it obv that would be good.
• I don't know if Mathis belongs in this section or lower - UF has a very TE heavy offense and don't hear much in terms of him in relation to UM of late.
• Vicious Vic - per Webb it sounds like UM might go back to him late if other targets fall off but not til Jan.  
• Nate Johnson may have taken Young's spot...  or Young may be Ahmir's silent.  Who knows right now.  
• Hudson is also getting buzz as the Ahmir silent!

Of the rest of the "No"s

• To me Nauta wants to go to Georgia short of an ebola breakout hitting Athens.  Every comment he makes leaves the door wide open to go to Georgia so I am quite pensive on any chance for UM here.  We seem a clear second.
• Hardman per Webb disliked MI's weater - Webb said even if UM got Pruitt he'd be a difficult pull so he seems to be a dream at this point.  
• No movement on Kelly since last update - for a high profile recruitment we supposedly have a decent chance on you don't hear much in UM's favor other than "under the table" stuff - all the ballz to OK.
• With Camp off the board due to weather, UM pressing on Daniels again but apparently he loves Oklahoma, and now says "distance matters" so seems like we are outside looking in there.  Announces tomorrow.
• Jones was here for OSU game - seems to be trending to Oklahoma too.

They gone

• McCullouch named a top 5 that didnt include UM.
• McDoom committed to Oregon.