Red Wing Frustrations
December 10th, 2017 at 9:52 PM ^
Holland and Blashill receive their share of the blame and justifiably so, but where is Chris Illitch in all of this? Sure Holland has chosen to this point to "rebuild on the fly" but how do we know that is his vision? Holland very well could be executing the marching orders of the Illitches. We don't know much about Chris Illitch but he strikes me as the sort of owner who is more concerned with the bottom line. Those extra 3-4 home playoff games every year probably generate a fair amount of revenue. I'm sure they were also hoping to avoid having a half empty Pizzarena with a crappy team in 2017-2018 (so much for that plan). I would sure like to hear from Chris I that he will settle for nothing less than a Stanley Cup.
As far as how to get there......you need elite players to win in the NHL. Not a lot but at least an elite top line and top defensive pairing and a very good goalie. The problem in today's hard cap NHL is it is extremely difficult and rare to acquite these players via trade or free agency. When teams get their hands on top talent they then try to lock them up with long term deals with no trade/movement clauses. That means the best way to acquire elite talent is through the draft.
The NHL draft lottery makes it very hard to tank your way into a top pick. The team that finishes last in the league only has about a 50% chance of picking in the top 3. That means the Wings will need some luck and since that seems to be in short supply since they picked Zetterberg (back in '99) they will have to stockpile picks and draft a lot better than they have in the last decade plus. I suspect we will see Holland try to trade away as many players as he can after the new year to try and stockpile picks if we sustain the current trend. The fact that the Tigers started doing that this year could be a good sign.
Because these elite players are expensive and the NHL operates in a hard cap world, the Wings are going to have to start embracing the Entry Level Contract and bridge deal. Players in their first 2 years in the league make much less than veterans - think $800K per years vs. $5M per year. Players on the second contract still usually make less than $2M. Winning teams build their supporting casts with players in these two contracts along with 2nd and 3rd tier veteran free agents who they pick up from the bargain bin. Of course if they don't draft well, their young players won't be good enough to make the team.
As well documented, this has been Holland's biggest flaw - resigning too many of his veteran players past their second contracts. Looking back, some of those deals seemed reasonable at the time when compared to that player's worth in the overvalued free agent market but you can no longer build a team of support players on what are essenitally free-agent long-term contracts with no trade/movement clauses. Unfortunately, it will take 3-4 years to get out of the cap hell we find ourselves in. The only problem is our cap issues will make it much harder to resign Larkin, Mantha and Athanasiou - the only valuable pieces this team has right now.
Gonna be a long and bumpy road I'm afraid.
LGRW
December 11th, 2017 at 4:14 AM ^
Help me Stevie Wan, you're my only hope!