trevion williams

The extent to which you're satisfied with Michigan's loss in West Lafayette probably depends on how comfortable you are with moral victories when the Wolverines are 11-9 overall and 5-5 in the B1G. The visitors rolled into Mackey Arena in search of a marquee victory, and they did not get one. They did, however, hang around for the entire 40 minutes, staying in a game that seemed like it was sliding away at several key moments. Is that enough to be happy about? Again, that depends on who you are. 

It started pretty ominously, with Eli Brooks airballing Michigan's first field goal attempt (it was a three-pointer), followed by Sasha Stefanovic nailing a three. A few minutes later, Caleb Houstan airballed Michigan's second three point attempt. Purdue had quickly sprinted out to a 20-8 lead and it rapidly appeared that Michigan was in huge trouble and a rout was on. That's around the point that the shots started to go down in rapid succession for the Wolverines, as the whole team heated up in a hurry. From airballing threes to suddenly knocking every shot, the half turned around fast. 

Between the 9:57 mark and the 4:34 mark, Michigan hit five three pointers, on just eight attempts. Purdue's offense also began to dry up, continuing to find success inside (more on that later), but their three point shooting slowed down, while Michigan was sniping. Hunter Dickinson's expanded three point shot was on display during this period, making back-to-back threes at one juncture, and he could've made four threes had he not had his toe on the line for two attempts. The result? The Maize & Blue had worked their way back into the contest, down just 32-31 when Dickinson hit that second three pointer.

The threes suddenly started falling [Campredon]

Unfortunately, they didn't do enough in the final four minutes of the half to pull even, all the while the defense struggled to corral defensive rebounds and gave Purdue too many extra possessions. Purdue led by six at the break, 39-33, even though Michigan led in eFG% in the first frame (5/12 on threes!), because Purdue rebounded 42% of their misses. Another factor was the lack of whistles. In fact, Purdue didn't get whistled for a single foul in the first half. To be clear, the home team didn't commit many foul worthy plays, playing a clean half of basketball, but to go twenty minutes without a foul is a rare anomaly worth noting. 

The second half featured a lot of Hunter Dickinson early on, scoring six of Michigan's first eleven points to begin the second stanza and pulling the Wolverines closer. He was avoiding fouls on defense, flashing his perimeter shooting, and battling inside. Michigan had dwindled the score to 45-44 with 16:51 to go in the contest, before Purdue surged on a 10-0 run supercharged by star guard Jaden Ivey. Matt Painter began to call ball screens for the explosive Ivey, a departure from the usual script for the team that calls the fewest ball screens in the B1G. Painter saw a matchup that Michigan remains extremely vulnerable to, and used his talent to exploit it ruthlessly. Ivey scored six straight points at the rack during that run, and it led to another moment when it seemed like the game was sliding away from the Wolverines. 

Jace alert! [Campredon]

But again, Michigan kept fighting. They made very little progress in terms of clawing back to a tie, but they didn't let the contest get out of hand. After Purdue led 61-49 with 11:43 left, the Boilermaker lead never swelled beyond 12, but it also didn't get cut to five or less until there were under 6 minutes to go. Part of the success that Michigan found in stymying Purdue was going to a 1-2-2 full court press. They forced a ten second violation and limited the amount of time Purdue had in the shot clock to set up their offense once they actually got into the front court, slowing down an attack that was functioning at full power. Jace Howard saw the floor during this stretch, and was a key part of that defensive configuration, while Dickinson and the two senior guards, Brooks and DeVante' Jones, did the scoring. 

A Dickinson jumper brought the score to 68-63 with 5:44 to go, and a couple minutes later it was 74-69. Michigan needed a couple stops to make this one more than a moral victory but their achilles heel, defensive rebounding, struck again. Purdue center Trevion Williams bricked the front end of a one-and-one, but Purdue snagged the offensive board, set up their offense, and Ivey converted on a layup. DeVante' Jones responded by hitting a three to cut it to 76-72, the closest the margin had been since early in the second half. 

The Wolverines got the stop they needed, but Trevion Williams stripped Dickinson on the baseline and a review gave the ball to the Boilermakers thanks to the Charles Matthews vs. Purdue 2018 Review rule. Ivey drew a foul, hit both free throws, and then Jones' pass deflected off Dickinson and out of bounds for another turnover. 78-72 with one minute to go, and Purdue held the ball. At this point, it was functionally over. The home team made their free throws, and Michigan would never get the margin any closer. Final score: 82-76. 

Trevion Williams was also dominant today [Campredon]

It was another phenomenal offensive performance from Dickinson, 28 points in 36 minutes on 12/17 from the field (2/3 from three), and perfect at the line. Grabbing only two defensive rebounds and four turnovers will haunt him, though. Jones posted 13 points on 5/7 from the field (with three turnovers), while Eli Brooks and Caleb Houstan were much rougher. Moussa Diabate was a non-factor offensively, scoring only two points in 17 minutes. Kobe Bufkin and Brandon Johns Jr. each hit threes for their only points, while Terrance Williams II scored six points in 18 minutes to lead bench scorers. Frankie Collins played eight minutes that were rather rough offensively, missing two threes that weren't close. 

Despite all those high notes, 55.8% from the field and 8/18 from three as a team, Michigan could not get stops consistently. Time and time again we have seen that this defense is just not good enough, allowing Purdue to shot >50% from the field despite going very cold from three. The Boilermakers were 62.5% from two (!!!!). They rebounded a shade under 40% of their misses, destroying Michigan inside and exploiting the PNR. Trevion Williams was 7/8 from the field while Zach Edey was 5/12 and they combined to snatch eight offensive rebounds. Only Ivey going 0/6 from three held Purdue from scoring 90+. 

In all, Michigan had a solid showing of fight and resolve, but they have to start winning some of these games against top tier B1G competition. Moral victories against Purdue and Illinois on the road won't help you much when you don't have any marquee victories on your resume and you're barely above .500. The good news is that Michigan has more shots coming this week. After an easier game @PSU on Tuesday, they get a rematch with these Boilermakers at Crisler on Thursday, as well as a top 25 Ohio State team at Crisler on Saturday. This week could very well make or break Michigan's tourney chances.

The game on Tuesday is scheduled for 9:00 PM and will be on ESPN2. There is no content after the jump. 

2021-22 B1G Basketball Season Preview... previously: Season preview podcast, Power Rankings Lower Half

Yesterday we covered the lower half of the B1G and ranked teams 14-8. Today we will be doing the same but for the upper half of the conference, talking less about despair and more about hope and pivotal questions that could define the seasons. Our first entrant in this article is also a new face in the conference: 

7. Indiana

Projected starting lineup:

• G, Xavier Johnson
• G, Parker Stewart
• F, Miller Kopp
• F, Race Thompson
• F, Trayce Jackson-Davis

Mike Woodson takes over in Bloomington and if he wants to begin his era off on the right foot, making the NCAA Tournament is a good way to begin. Luckily for him, the Hoosiers have a high floor by returning Trayce Jackson-Davis, who is a B1G Player of the Year candidate. TJD is an elite rebounder who gets to the stripe at an incredibly high rate, in addition to soaking up a ginormous volume of possessions. Indiana leans on him heavily, but whether the Hoosiers wind up in March Madness probably depends on whether or not they find impact players besides TJD.

Race Thompson returns as well, a slightly smaller and far less used version of TJD. He rebounds, blocks, and gets to the line just like the IU star, but his usage is indicative of a role player and not a star. Thompson should be in line for a bigger job this season, but if he is, then you have a situation where both of IU’s two biggest pieces can’t shoot from outside, which raises relevant questions about floor spacing and the ability of this team to pack the perimeter punch. Rob Phinisee returns as a guard off the bench, but he certainly won’t add that three-point shooting (career 29.8%).

The rest of the roster consists of new players that Woodson has imported to Indiana. Xavier Johnson is a high usage PG from Pitt who will be expected to run the offense but he, too, has struggled from three in his career and could best be described up to this point as a “turnover machine”. Perhaps a reduced role akin to Mike Smith last year could reign some of the wildness in and make him take better shots. Parker Stewart sat out last season after transferring from UT-Martin and is supposed to be the sharp-shooter that this roster lacks. Miller Kopp could bring some perimeter shooting from the wing position if he’s more 2019-20 (39.6%) than 2021-21 (32.0%), after arriving from Northwestern. Tamar Bates also should play a role as a top 50 recruit off the bench. 

To me, Indiana starts out as a bubble team. They won’t be terrible, because of TJD and to a lesser extent, Thompson. But outside shooting is the crucial factor as to whether IU is another Archie-style bellyflop or a genuinely encouraging 8-9 seed type team, which is mostly a function of how well all the offseason shopping this program did in the transfer portal really went. Though Woodson has no recruits of his own on this roster, we’ll get a decent temperature of how he is as a B1G coach in year #1 based on how well he can integrate the fresh faces.

6. Michigan State

Projected lineup:

• G, Tyson Walker
• G, Max Christie
• F, Gabe Brown
• F, Joey Hauser
• F, Marcus Bingham

Michigan State missed Cassius Winston like a baby misses its pacifier last season, cycling through a number of PG options and never really landing on one until their season ran out in the NCAA Tournament’s play-in game against UCLA (haha, losers, what kind of team loses to UCLA?). Tom Izzo thinks he may have solved that problem by reeling in PG transfer Tyson Walker from Northeastern. Walker was a magnificent player in the Colonial Athletic Association, winning that conference’s POY award after posting 19 a game with 5 assists, shooting 35% from deep on humongous usage. Walker is a little undersized and of course there will be transition costs, but he could be a big addition (for the record, the CAA is roughly ranked akin to the Sun Belt and Ivy League in KP’s conference rankings).

The other big addition is five-star SG Max Christie, a 6’6” prospect who profiles as a knock down shooter with skill and poise, not unlike Michigan’s addition of Caleb Houstan. Considering that MSU couldn’t buy a three last season, adding impact shooting perimeter shooting is big. The big question for the Spartans is who whether Walker and Christie are ready to gobble up a high volume of possessions, because losing Aaron Henry, Rocket Watts, and Josh Langford means that three of MSU’s top four usage guys from last season are out the door, including their top two.

The question increases in importance when you remember that the other pieces, though familiar, have refused to take charge offensively. Lanky stretch forward Gabe Brown has been a useful option, but he’s allergic to playing an active role in the offense, and the same can be said for big men Malik Hall and Marcus Bingham. Which is why MSU’s season hinges on Joey Hauser. The Marquette transfer was not the big splash addition that Spartan fans had hoped for last season, shooting just 34% from three and 61% at the line for a 103.8 ORTG. That represented a big turn from the promising player that Hauser had seemed to be in 2019 for the Golden Eagles.

If Hauser can re-find his Marquette form, then a good campaign from Christie and Walker may be enough to boost MSU into the top four of the league. But, those are all sizable question marks considering you’re talking about one player transferring in from mid-major basketball, another who’s never played a collegiate game, and a third who struggled mightily in his first B1G season. For now, we keep State in the middle of the B1G.

[AFTER THE JUMP: More transfers!]

Previously: Part One (Illinois-Minnesota), Part Two (Nebraska-Wisconsin), Part Three (ranking 8-14)

The rankings so far:

14. Minnesota (Tier VI)
13. Penn State (Tier VI)
12. Rutgers (Tier VI)
11. Wisconsin (Tier V)
10. Iowa (Tier V)
9. Nebraska (Tier IV)
8. Illinois (Tier IV)

I have to begin this post with an apology. When putting together my tiers, I... uh... forgot Northwestern. I do not, in fact, believe that the Wildcats will shoot into the top half of the Big Ten. I'm sorry to the readers for the omission. I also want to state that this isn't an apology to Northwestern basketball for reasons I shouldn't need to get into.

sorry, also not sorry

Let's take care of their section, fix these rankings, and get on to the real top half of the conference.

Northwestern. The good news is Chris Collins' squad returns most of their production. The bad news is that they're mostly the same team that wasn't very good last year. Once opponents got the scout on Northwestern's revamped five-out offense, which Michigan laid the blueprint for shutting down, they were cooked. They should improve by virtue of player development and familiarity in the system but I'm not convinced their team experience will translate to as many wins as Torvik's early projections, which have them 8th in the Big Ten.

Room for movement? I'm not seeing much. The spot where Northwestern had an unexpected loss—wing Miller Kopp transferring to Indiana—is where they have an incoming four-star freshman.

Alright, let's try this again:

14. Minnesota (Tier VI)
13. Penn State (Tier VI)
12. Rutgers (Tier VI)
11. Wisconsin (Tier V)
10. Northwestern (Tier V)
9. Iowa (Tier V)
8. Nebraska (Tier IV)
7. Illinois (Tier IV)

Much better. Back to our regularly scheduled good teams.

[After THE JUMP]