three-star mafia

What's Don Brown's hit rate on the three-stars he's recruiting? Is it substantially better than the norm? Should we #TrustTheCoaches? I got a question in the commitment alert for Massachusetts end T.J. Guy last week:

Good for the kid, but I just don’t get Don Brown recruiting.   This is an actual question and me not being a smart ass, but how many of his generic 3 stars that he has brought in on defense turn out to be elite/high level contributors?   It’s almost like he never realized he left Boston College and can now recruit a different type of player.  Part of me is looking forward to seeing what the next DC has on the recruiting front.   I want a high-level recruiting DC. 

And the answer became this post.

Let's get the first part out of the way: recruiting stars are correlated with player success. There are hundreds of articles, including dozens on this site, which show it. Some of my own studies in the past concluded you should expect a 50% hit rate (a player in contention for All Big Ten or better) on five-stars, a 25% hit-rate on four-stars, and for the huge mass of three-stars to be on a similar curve. I prefer to use a scale not levels, because there's a huge difference between a top-300 four-star and a top-50 one.

Things get even cloudier in the 3-star pile because there's virtually no rating lower than that any more. Some guys are three-stars because they play on a team of four-stars against the best high school competition, but aren't expected to get any better. Others are three-stars because Michigan offered them and the recruiting sites have maybe one scout who's seen him play point guard (Ronnie Bell). Still others have high ceilings but need to dramatically change their bodies or something, or certain specific skills that are top-notch but not the size to play the position where those skills are normally used, e.g. Josh Uche.

You also have to take into account what Michigan could get instead. Fretting about a guy outside the top-1,000 with a UConn offer is understandable, but keep in mind the use of the scholarship is being judged against replacement. Some of the dumbest talk around recruiting comes from people who think four- and five-stars would jump into the class if the scholarships weren't used up on MSU-level recruits. Even if it was true that Michigan's coaches were just taking lower-ranked players because blue chips are too much effort, there's no way for us to know or judge that. Assume that the coaching staff puts a reasonable amount of effort into recruiting, and that if they offer the #44-ranked DE when the #12 DE is in-state and telling people he'd come if called, the coaches preferred the #44 guy.

The valid question is one of evaluation: if they do go after #44, does that mean #44 should be #5, or is something else going on? Maybe history knows.

[After THE JUMP: a trip through Don Brown recruiting at Michigan and previous]

Things discussed:

• People are freaking out that we’re just third in the Big Ten. Not freak-out worthy but this class doesn’t have any solid Top 100 guys (Otis Reese isn’t solid) and a couple of real fliers. Probably a blip?
• Craig Ross runs through the Harbaugh 3-stars so far: they’re mostly working out.
• Craig likes Haskins more than Green.
• Certain positions (e.g. defensive back) you either have it or you don’t.
• This year’s class of DBs are all long and skinny dudes, and they took a pile of them despite not losing anyone. Brian thinks it’s about defending slot fades, which was the defense’s one weakness this year.
• Some of them (e.g. Sims) are going to be safeties, or at least slot defenders. If there’s room to play this year that’s the job that’s available since M has a solid top 4-5 outside with Hill, Long, Watson, Ambry, and JKP.
• Crootin around the conference. Big Ten East again dominating: Ohio State again, Penn State had a great class. Maryland is doing well in the rankings (still doomed). MSU has a Top 25 class. That’s 5/7 East teams who are the top five classes in the conf.
• Early Signing Day? Brian: boo, less pomp. Saban: boo. Ed: yay, Saban hates it. Craig: yay it’s more honest. Brian: but boo, more Stan Draytons.
• Doyle: hasn’t visited anywhere or been visited, signed under the same circumstances as exist now, said he’s signing with his HS teammates in February, so no worries.
• We like the Peterses.
• OL recruiting: in good shape, Frey getting Frey guys, Drevno is trying to close on Patterson and Petit-Frere. Biggest recruiting miss last year was Isaiah Wilson.
• Hoops: You can rest Wagner, and the rest of the two-deep against literally the worst team on Kenpom.

You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream on Audioboom.

Segment two is here. Segment three is here.

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