freshman wide receivers suck

My answers ran long on NIL and transfers and Michigan’s clans, so I broke this mailbag into parts. The first is here, and this is the second, focused more on the Michigan 2022 questions. There were enough questions about Michigan’s scheme that I might pop out a third next week, or decide to save them for Neck Sharpies over the offseason.

Program Direction?

UofM Die Hard in Seattle asks:

Do you, Brian, Alex, etc …feel like this ship is finally ready to run on all engines, consistently year in and year out? Do you believe Jim when he says this feels like a beginning?

I can’t speak for the others but I do not, no.

It is the nature of college football to create narratives to fill in for chance. Flip a coin five times; if the first four are tails, Coinflip fans will argue whether the flipper or the coin needs to be replaced. Turn up heads on the fifth flip, and that’s the one we make a Teams podcast about.

“How great was 2021?” and “How good is the program that produced it?” are different questions, however, and the second requires acknowledgement that there’s a lot of variance. I think Michigan was a little lucky to win this time, and very unlucky that only one of five Harbaugh teams that played at this level came out champions. You know close they came. Alter an inch in 2016 and a Piggy 2pt conversion pass in 2018 and Harbaugh has two Big Ten East championships before Chris Olave ever lined up across from Brandon Watson (now Rusnak).

One good exercise when you’re trying to sanity-check the results of a season is to flip all the one-score games, and see how you feel about the season. We now have losses to Rutgers, at Nebraska, and at Penn State, but a win at MSU. That results in 9-3/6-3, 2nd place in the B10 East, and probably a Peach Bowl. Somewhere between that hypothetical (and still satisfying) season and the one we got was 2021’s peak distribution. Do that for the last seven years:

• 2015: 10-3, beat Utah and MSU, losses at Minnesota and Indiana
• 2016: 12-1, lose to Wisconsin, beat Iowa, OSU, FSU (probably in the playoffs)
• 2017: 9-4, beat MSU, lose at Indiana, beat S.Carolina to preserve the B10 bowl sweep.
• 2018: 10-3, beat Notre Dame, lose at Northwestern (blame “The Call from Mars”)
• 2019: 8-5, lose to Army and Iowa at home, beat Penn State on the road (probably doesn’t get Bama)
• 2020: 2-4, beat MSU, but no Rutgers comeback.

…and it looks like Harbaugh’s had Michigan playing at a B+ or A- level every season except the one where they had to play all true sophomores, and the one with all the COVID. The 2019 team was a lot better than the flip-it record.

There’s zero shame in coming out better than the flip hypothetical  —not only were we due, but it’s a mark of intangible things like timely decisions and plays. That’s where you get into things like Aidan Hutchinson’s leadership, how the players liked their coaches, how this team had fewer disgruntled players than others. I don’t have any way to measure that, or to know if it will continue, so it goes in the luck bin, but I believe in it. Also 42-27 was no fluke.

In the short term they’ve got fresh and upcoming talent at DT and CB—two talent-based areas we’ve been fretting about since 2018—and a ton of upside in JJ McCarthy and the receiver room Gattis put together for him. All four linebacker spots are sus, and Grandpa Hawkins’s stabilizing presence is an underratedly hard thing to replace. Past that they’re set up to return most of the 2022 team in 2023, but getting there requires navigating treacherous waters with new dangers, like the possibility LSU comes and buys your starting DT (like they did Mizzou’s this week). Depending on McCarthy’s development, the next few years could be a peak.

Long-term, it’s hard to say while we’re still waiting out Harbaugh. That’s gone on long enough that I now believe he probably does want to get back to the NFL, but the NFL isn’t biting. What version of Harbaugh does Michigan get back after that? People slow down with age and security, even The Jackhammer. I think Michigan’s climbed back to their Carr baseline, or where Dantonio got Michigan State, but the next step is the hardest, and the gatekeepers to that level are very keen to keep us out. Something more fundamental would have to change, from an expanded playoffs, massive schedule realignment, or new way of doing things at the NCAA that makes Michigan’s (and Penn State’s and Notre Dame’s) peculiar advantages into the most important ones.

If there is a difference now, it isn’t the underlying strength of the program but the fanbase’s mental fortitude. College football rewards highs and punishes lows, producing a few fanbases that can only experience relief when they don’t lose, and many losers whose only joy is others’ sorrow. Michigan fell down long enough to shed their hubris, and got back up with love receptors intact.

Intellectually, 2021’s may have been a Michigan team like many others. But to a new generation of fans, the experience gave them heroes and stories of their own. You don’t need statues, Seth & Sap, or other crusty old men to know what Michigan glory feels like anymore. A hundred thousand people saw it, and million more will one day claim to have. You get to tell those stories now. You were there. And will be for awhile yet. Long live snow.

Previously: Podcast 10.0A. Podcast 10.0B. Podcast 10.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back.

Depth Chart

Say it with me: Freshman Wide Receivers Suck. Last year this space faced down an outside WR situation featuring true sophomore Kekoa Crawford and a fleet of freshmen. Numbers were cited. Folks checked the recent history of the highly touted. It was hoped that one of Michigan's four lottery tickets would come good immediately. And one probably did! Then he broke his foot in game three.

Also the sophomore was a complete disaster...

Michigan's opening snap was a bomb in [Crawford's] direction, and hoo boy do I hate this:

Crawford has no idea how to judge this ball. It's in the air, he's staring at it, and he still fades to the sideline like he's Kevonte Martin-Manuel trying to bring in a Jake Rudock seam throw. (YES I AM STILL BITTER ABOUT THIS.) The ball hits about a yard from the sideline, and it's a little short. A ton of wide receivers catch this ball, or at least force a PI out of the DB. Crawford does neither, and I'm immediately reminded of Darryl Stonum. This is the kind of throw where you have given your WR a shot, and it deserves better.

...to the point where he transferred out despite getting the second-most targets of any outside WR last year. It's bad when a returning starter transfers for playing time. On the bright side, it does give me an excuse to post this photoshop.

spiritually pictured: Michigan receiving, 2017 [Seth]

With the lottery ticket sidelined and the sophomore auditioning for an Unnecessary Roughness reboot, Michigan turned to five-star Donovan Peoples-Jones, who was definitely open on several hundred deep shots, half of which were not thrown because of QB or OL malfeasance. The other half sailed forlornly into the East carrying a bunch of damn Elves. Why are we talking about this again?

The combination of youth and a lack of coaching was poison to an already extremely dead passing game. The players hope to repair the youth by being slightly older. The program did get an actual WR coach after a year of pretending Pep Hamilton had anything to do with being that sort of position coach. And yes, for all his many flaws Jim McElwain does have a decade-long tenure as a WR coach in his past. It sounds like he and GA Roy Roundtree are doing some stuff the previous setup was not:

This spring, Martin says, the coaching staff - led by new wide receivers coach Jim McElwain - has made it a point to emphasize point of contact at the line of scrimmage.

Getting clean breaks. Not getting jammed up. Both were issues last season, evident by Michigan's difficulty finding an open receiver.

"Just getting our feet active, swiping hands off of us," Martin said. "They've broken it down from a technical standpoint really well, and we were able to do the releases that we are equipped with."

So stay healthy, get crafty, and-

what

no

DAMMIT

#Michigan WR Tarik Black sustained a right foot injury at Saturday's practice. He's being evaluated and no definitive time frame has been determined for his return to play.

— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) August 26, 2018

OUTSIDE WR: STRIKE ME DOWN AND I WILL BECOME MORE POWERFUL THAN YOU CAN POSSIBLY AW POOPERS YOU STRUCK ME DOWN AGAIN NVM GG

RATING: 4 3

So, TARIK BLACK

hey

What are you doing here, bolded alter ego? I'm busy weeping and striking through all the stuff I wrote about Tarik Black.

you know you can just delete that, it's a computer

Please get to the point.

that kind of is the point you're being a little weird

one drinks and weeps and drinks tea at times like this, it is known

oh hey but...

"He'll be out for some weeks," Harbaugh said of Black. "He has a right foot injury. He had one fixed last year, this injury is very similar to the one he had last year. The good news is that both will be fixed. He's being evaluated right now."

"some weeks"? eh? eh? eh?

Fine. So. TARIK BLACK

stop that

TARIK "Ol' Santana Guitar Solo" BLACK [recruiting profile] has been hewn down before he can even build up a head of steam and will once again observe Michigan's progress from the sideline. For... a while. An unspecified while. One that if it is indeed similar to last year's injury should take him out for at least eight games and possibly longer.

The amount of suck this contains is lots. Black's 11 catches in his two-and-change games project out to a palpable freshman hit; 8.8 yards per target was nearly two yards better than Michigan's #2 WR in that department. That's a little data we are making big, but also Black just felt like he had The Proverbial It. Every other word in his above recruiting profile was "smooth," thus the prospecting name, and that translated. His touchdown against Florida was a post on which his drift outside seemed to dupe the UF safety into passing him off...

...and when he set up for shorter stuff it was just... smooth, man.

His high school coach got into some detail about what all the smoothness actually translated to on the football field, and we were in the early stages of seeing a college version of that when the above play knocked him out last year:

"It was clear to me two weeks into his freshman year how special he was going to be. Unbelievable ability to catch the ball, run routes. … I think his route-running ability is freakish, to be honest. He has an innate ability in and out of a cut and create separation, no matter what you're doing."

There were some freshman dorfs, as there always are...

 

You said in the game column that you thought there were a bunch of subtle WR screwups that were hurting the offense. Find any?

Yes. Some weren't that subtle. Black twice failed to crack block, once on an Eddie McDoom bubble that he juked back into productivity...

...and once on one of those redzone plays.

But the combination of early productivity, recruiting hype, and program chatter pointed towards a genuine breakout year last year, and talk this year was that Black had maintained his lead over his classmates despite missing all that time at the worst possible juncture. This space was going to project an 800 yard season. Instead it will kick dirt and be sad. I won't bother you with the various hype items he's gathered over the offseason; they would only depress.

[After THE JUMP: Persons who are Available!]

[Bryan Fuller]

Struggle. There is only struggle. We can ask the how and why of it but the pale fact remains that all around us is struggle. Eat At Arby's.

Brian -

I've put Drevno on my personal hot-seat given the continued struggles with the OL both on the field and in recruiting, not to mention the hiring of Frey.  With that being said, however, isn't this year different than the last two in the way they're struggling?     

I feel like our OL struggled mostly with run-blocking the past two years (pulling, ID'ing, push, leverage, etc.) while this year we're struggling primarily in pass-blocking (stunts, twists, blitzes, etc.). 

Would that indicate it is more of a player-related issue or schematic issue this year rather than an OL coaching issue? 

Adam

These questions are always in the "I don't really know" zone since they require insight into the inner workings of the program I'm not privy to. Michigan faces twists, stunts, and blitzes whether they run or pass, and the ground game has been a struggle.

There's a clear personnel hole at right tackle, where Ulizio just got yanked for Juwann Bushell-Beatty, a redshirt junior who still managed to lose his job to Ulizio. The results have been ugly so far, far uglier than last year even after Ben Braden was forced to kick out to LT:

5 Sacks, 2 hits, 6 hurries given up on the season. We still haven't charged anyone else on the OL with >1 (QBs collectively at 5).

— Josh Liskiewitz (@PFF_Josh) October 9, 2017

That's Ulizio through five games, turning a motley collection of defensive ends into Brandon Graham Voltron. Ulizio's struggled less on the ground but has not exactly been good. That is a definite player-related issue, and a Grant Newsome-related issue. But as I noted in the game column Michigan has a severe issue at tackle in part because Michigan airballed at the spot in their first recruiting class.

Michigan also attempted a change in philosophy. It seem like the addition of Greg Frey caused them to go heavy inside zone, trading surprise for execution. They did not execute, so they just gave up their surprise. Michigan did go back to something that looked more like last year's diverse run game against MSU. Despite the uninspiring numbers it's been their easiest run performance of the season to look at so far in UFR. I would say there is a schematic issue caused by that change in philosophy, which may or may not end up sticking. Survey says: probably not.

[After THE JUMP: will you be more likely to click if I say the Star Force Alfisode B trailer is behind the link? It's got a funny lookin' animal in it!]