aj barner

Tonight the football world turns its attention to downtown Detroit and the 2024 NFL Draft. Over the years of the Jim Harbaugh era we've grown accustomed to Michigan to having quite a few players drafted, but the next three days has the opportunity to be historic. Harbaugh himself was talking up the possibility of Michigan setting NFL Draft records in 2024 last summer and now with only a few hours to Draft Day, it remains plausible. Georgia's 2022 draft remains the record, with 15 players taken off the Bulldogs' national title winning roster. Can Michigan tie, or exceed 15? Today we'll go through each player, their chances of getting drafted, and what NFL Draft scouts are saying about the heroes from Team 144: 

Certain to be drafted (7)

JJ McCarthy

Consensus Big Board ranking: 23 

Likely Draft Day: Thursday  

What scouts are saying: In all likelihood, the first Wolverine off the board will be the QB, JJ McCarthy. Where exactly he goes is up in the air, as it could be as high as #2 (theoretically) and could be somewhere in the teens. The consensus of scouts seems to be more bearish on McCarthy when it comes to actually ranking him, as the consensus big board puts him 23rd, but the sense is that because QB is a premium position, JJ will go higher than that in the actual draft. 

Scouts seem to like McCarthy's athleticism, intangibles/leadership, and arm talent (velocity and accuracy). His winning ways in both high school and college, in addition to his raw tools and mobility as a passer are certainly tantalizing. However, McCarthy's reads and decision-making are seen as areas for uncertainty. The low volume of throws that JJ has made over his Michigan career relative to some of the other top quarterbacks are another example of that uncertainty, a bit more of a mystery component than other QBs posses. Some suggest that it may be best for JJ to sit a year behind an experienced QB, while he continues to develop as a QB reading through his progressions. We shall see whether whichever team inevitably drafts McCarthy in the first round has that plan in mind. 

Kris Jenkins

Consensus Big Board ranking: 49

Likely Draft Day: Friday

What scouts are saying: Jenkins has been on NFL Draft radars for several years now and he seems likely to follow Mazi Smith's path into the league. Smith was drafted 26th in last year's draft, a bit higher than anticipated, but Jenkins' profile and projected ranking is in a similar ballpark. Good, and among the best DTs in the class, but perhaps not an elite stud a la Byron Murphy II or Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton. Jenkins generally falls in that second tier of tackles after Murphy and Newton, alongside Ohio State's Michael Hall Jr. and Florida State's (formerly WMU's) Braden Fiske.  

Jenkins' profile is a bit of an unsexy one to a lot of scouts, but with some safe projection. Like most Michigan players, he's lauded for his work ethic and intangibles, the sort of guy NFL teams want to draft. His run defense generally gets favorable reviews from scouts and he graded out very well athletically at the NFL combine. There's also more safety in Kris Jenkins' NFL pedigree through his father, even though the two are built rather differently. Jenkins' counting stat production and general pass rush is what grades out a bit more negatively to scouts, wondering if he has that explosive, home run upside. Still, for teams looking to beef up the D-Line with a safe run stopper who may still have upside to explore (remember Jenkins' body transformation at Michigan), Jenkins is a solid bet and I'd expect him to go in the 2nd round on Friday night. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: all the other guys]

FORMATION NOTES: In general Bama was so multiple that I had a hard time deciphering whether something was a 4-3 with a standup end or a 3-4 with a SAM; they would go with a 5-1, they would shift constantly. Surely the thickest playbooks in college football went head to head in this game.

I called this weird thing 30 nickel slide SAM:

You've got your line shifted to the run strength, you've got a standup end in a SAM spot, and you've got your LBs shifted to run strength. This is Bama's "please run at Justin Eboigbe" formation.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Johnson, Wilson, Barner, and Loveland all got at least two-thirds of Michigan's snaps. Corum wasn't far behind. Morris, Edwards, Morgan, and Bredeson had 10-20; Mullings and Orji had cameos.

[After the JUMP: retired that so and so]

11/25/2023 – Michigan 30, Ohio State 24 – 12-0, 9-0 Big Ten, Big Ten East Champs

Shrek was nude, erect, and prodigious.

This did not phase me. I am a member of the Oregon Trail generation. When the guy who posted this at me was still in the womb I was casually scrolling past goatse and lemonparty. There is only one image on the internet that has ever shook me. I will not say what it is, and I have not seen it in fifteen years. Turgid Shrek is nothing compared to it.

It goes without saying that this happened on Twitter, which was already a cesspool before Elon Musk took it over. It was already a cesspool before Ohio State's PI firm spun the Connor Stalions stuff into the Worst Scandal In College Football History™ and Tony Petitti took the bait. Combine these two events and you get the last month of the season, the most hellish one imaginable when your very excellent football team is heading for an undefeated matchup in the greatest rivalry in sports.

The context is this: some guy thinks this is a cool dunk.

The Connor Stalions effect in four pictures

Incredible, incredible stuff pic.twitter.com/vnZ7fVGKOR

— AthletesInSpace (@AthletesInSpace) November 23, 2023

That's three bone-dry news posts that might as well be from the AP followed up by a tweet of mine dunking on Gattis after he tanked the Miami offense overnight. Obviously this person is not familiar with the output of this blog, which was more or less furious about Gattis after his second game in charge of the offense and only got more frustrated from there.  I replied with evidence of such, and got Shrek.

This was the vast majority of interactions I had the last month. You say something, you cite some stuff, you appeal to common sense, and someone sends you a cartoon schwangle-dangle. Or you post literally anything and that happens. Usually metaphorically, sometimes literally.

I don't bring this up because I imagine you are hanging on what my experience is on Twitter, but because I imagine this is a reasonable facsimile of what your lives have been over the past month. Ohio State fans, mercifully quiet for the last couple years, popping up to go LOL STALIONS when you're at a baby shower or a work meeting or a briss. Michigan State fans saying Michigan had Endangered The Players just days after Spencer Brown speared Braiden McGregor in the helmet. Bert Bielema coming up to you, personally, and saying you are a disgusting human being for tolerating the filth that is Michigan football. Sort of thing. And you just have to smile tightly and try to change the subject, lest you strangle someone.

I also imagine that what you experienced at four o'clock on Saturday afternoon is what I did: silence. Blissful, wonderful silence.

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Nobody gives a shit anymore. In the aftermath even the Ohio State fans who were dead certain that Connor Stalions was all Michigan had are busy fighting other Ohio State fans who don't hate Ohio State's coach enough:

Pat Forde, who seized upon his old-school journalist instincts to hop aboard the Worst Scandal Ever train a few weeks ago, is now forced to show his belly to Dan Wetzel with some mealy-mouthed assertions that the NCAA is going to step in and do a thing. This, too, is a common theme amongst OSU cope posting: surely all of this will be vacated even after the last half-season of football amply demonstrated that Connor Stalions had about 0% to do with Michigan's success.

That was always the truth, and would always be the truth. But the truth doesn't always matter. Michigan strangling out Ohio State with a 7-minute drive and then pressuring Kyle McCord into an interception means that it does actually matter. Those were the stakes: does Michigan get to claim what they earned? Yes. Yes they do. In the aftermath Kris Jenkins screamed at Jason Avant that "there ain't no more excuses, can't nobody say otherwise, because we did that shit!"

So now we can put it behind us. There will be the deranged rivals screaming CHEATERZ until we all die; now they are an amusing sidelight and nothing else. They are welcome to die mad.

Attention can now turn to this team. This fucking team.

I could not have withstood this. I am just a guy on the internet and I have to admit that all the noise half-crippled me for three weeks. I believe that a lot of teams fronted by regular humans would have folded at the pressure put upon them. I privately feared Michigan was cracking after the Maryland game.

They were not. I am not sure we fully comprehend how lucky we were that we got this set of players at this exact moment in time. It feels like JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum and Kris Jenkins and Mike Barrett and Mike Sainristil could stare a nuclear holocaust in the face, glance at each other, and say "we got this."

This is unfair because it does not reference basically every other Michigan starter, and also the other half of the defense that plays 30 snaps a game. Trente Jones came in after the aforementioned horrific injury and immediately started hammering people. Jake Thaw got hammered by a teammate and held onto a punt. Folks make errors, sure. This is a team that faced down Marvin Harrison, lost their top-ten pick corner for the last 20 minutes, and said "bet."

Who was the weak spot to attack? Who was the indomitable hero? There wasn't one, and there wasn't one.

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The worst part about this column thus far is that it has barely referenced the actual Michigan players who fought this out. 30-24 is the third Michigan win over Ohio State in a row, something that hasn't happened since 1997. This column has necessarily concerned itself with all of the ridiculous garbage leading up to a completely normal football game won by the better team. I, personally, have spent a lot of time citing the four players I have just cited above.

But when you have a program, Quinten Johnson comes back and puts on his best Marcus Ray impression. Kalel Mullings wipes folks on out lead blocks. Trente Jones comes in when Zinter goes out. This game was not only an escape from the Narrative but a validation of Michigan's "everyone eats" approach. They put so much time into making sure everyone was ready, and then everyone was ready. I saw Mike Sainristil's dad carry a giant Mike Sainristil head onto the field for the Senior Day portion of the proceedings, and then I saw the Sainristil head at midfield after Michigan beat Ohio State. Last year Sainristil felt like a fluke, like something Michigan had lucked into. In 2023 Sainristil is the past, present, and future.

Next year it'll be Mason Graham, or Ben Hall, or Kalel Mullings. Not every year is going to be this peak roster year but Michigan has found a groove here where they can get the Michigan guys. There is a bat signal out here, and the folks Michigan needs to win will come to help them win. This all derives from this generation of players, and their attitude.

Despite the famous/infamous history of JJ McCarthy's recruitment, where he wanted to go to OSU and got screwed out of it, it is impossible to envision him playing in that fascist fucking stadium. Yes, take all the NFL guys and send them to the NFL. Instead we will have the Sainted Four, and Trevor Keegan, and Zak Zinter, and Kris Jenkins, and keep them and hold them and release them when they are ready, which is a bit later than other programs might keep them.

This is not a coaching thing, or necessarily a Michigan thing. Those things help. But fundamentally this is a decision they make because something other than maximizing revenue is what drives them. They are here—still here—for another reason. They stayed. And they are champions.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

[Bryan Fuller]

you're the man now, dog

#1 JJ McCarthy. 16/20, 7.4 YPA, 1 TD, no interceptions against a pass defense that was by far the best in the country in opponent-adjusted EPA/play. Added three crucial scrambles for 17 yards. Did not put a single ball in harm's way a week after making everyone's collars tighten against Maryland. Made some of the most mind-bending throws I can remember.

#2 Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, and Kris Jenkins. The primary place Michigan's light box shows up is between the tackles. Michigan got to play two deep safeties against Marvin Harrison and fling every coverage known to man at him because the DTs were able to bow up enough to hold TreVeyon Henderson to 3.2 yards an attempt despite getting buckets of doubles.

#3 Blake Corum. The 22-yard touchdown was the most important play of the game, coming right after Zinter's injury. 4.0 yards per carry isn't astounding but when a chunk of those carries are pounding it in from the seven on Michigan's first touchdown and other short-yardage events, your average gets depressed.

Also #3 Colston Loveland. Five catches for 88 yards means he was the most efficient offensive player on either team. No incompletions were directed at Loveland.

Also #3 Will Johnson. Crucial interception and I'm pretty sure he's covering for a safety bust on the PI/insane Harrison catch; tackling him was a smart move. Unfortunately, Harrison caught the dang thing anyway.

Also #3 Jaylen Harrell. Forced the game-ending interception.

Honorable mention: Tommy Doman's booming punts let Michigan weather some early offensive hiccups. Donovan Edwards had a crucial halfback pass. Mike Barrett nearly had an INT and was excellent in coverage all day. Rod Moore paid off the Harrell rush. Quinten Johnson leveled Egbuka to prevent a chunk play. James Turner's field goals were the margin of victory and one was from 50.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

53: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV, #2 Rutgers, HM Nebraska, #2 Minn, #1 IU, #1 MSU, HM PUR, HM PSU, #1 OSU)
28: Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 BGSU, HM Rutgers, #1 Neb, HM MSU, T2 OSU)
24: Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 Minn, HM IU, HM MSU, T2 MD, T2 OSU) 
22: Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV, #2 BGSU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb, HM IU, #1 PSU, HM MD, #3 OSU)
20: Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU, HM BGSU, #1 Rutgers, HM IU, HM MSU, #1 MD), Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV, #2 PSU, T2 MD, T2 OSU)
14: Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, #3 Nebraska, #2 PUR), Mike Barrett (HM UNLV, T3 Rutgers, #2 IU, T1 PUR, HM MD, HM OSU)
13: Colston Loveland (HM Rutgers, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PUR, HM MD, #3 OSU)
11: AJ Barner (HM BGSU, HM Neb, HM Minn, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PSU),
10: Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV, #2 Nebraska, T1 PUR), Will Johnson(#3 Minn, #3 PUR, HM PSU, #3 OSU)
9: Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM IU, T1 PUR, #3 OSU)
7: Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM Minn), Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV, HM Neb, HM MSU, T1 PUR),
6: Junior Colson (#3 BGSU, T3 Rutgers, HM MSU)
5: Tommy Doman (HM ECU, #3 MD, HM OSU)
4: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU, T3 Rutgers), Max Bredeson (HM Rutgers, HM Neb, T3 IU), Josiah Stewart (HM Minn, T1 PUR), The Offensive Line (HM Minn, #3 PSU),
3: Donovan Edwards (HM ECU, HM PSU, HM OSU)
2:  Josh Wallace (T3 ECU), Semaj Morgan (HM Rutgers, HM PUR), Rod Moore (HM PUR, HM OSU), Quinten Johnson (HM Rutgers, HM OSU)
1: Tyler Morris (HM UNLV), Kalel Mullings (HM Minn),Keon Sabb (HM Minn), Ben Hall (HM IU), Rayshaun Benny (HM PSU), Cam Goode (HM MD), James Turner(HM OSU)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Rod Moore's diving interception seals the game.

Honorable mention: Donovan Edwards completes a halfback pass. Blake Corum scores a legacy-defining touchdown. Will Johnson intercepts McCord. JJ McCarthy throws the most ridiculous pass I've ever seen for a Roman Wilson touchdown. Tommy Doman sticks a punt at the two.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

Zak Zinter's leg shatters. They did not show the aftermath on television and you are grateful for this decision. The incident was an unavoidable accident, FWIW.

Honorable mention: Ohio State runs it down Michigan's throat to tie the game at 24. Various Ohio State catches from their cyborg wide receivers. A Roman Wilson first down catch is (correctly) overturned.

NICK SAMAC PATHETIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

We get two commercial-kickoff-commercial sequences in the third quarter and also a timeout-commercial-timeout-play-commercial sequence at the end of the game. Also the timeouts in this game were 30 seconds longer than in any other game this year. The Big Ten, which just huffily suspended Jim Harbaugh, is siphoning millions of dollars from these two programs. That is going to stop in the next TV contract, or we're out of here.

Dishonorable mention: Pete Thamel hides in the stadium instead of facing the music.