2022-23 north carolina

Michigan played three non-conference games against opponents that you mentally circled on the schedule when the season got going. In all three, they played reasonably well. In all three, they had a shot in the closing minutes to get it done. But in all three, Michigan men's basketball could not emerge with an important win, going 0/3 and losing by a total combined margin of 10 points. Tonight's four point defeat to North Carolina in Charlotte was the final of those three losses, a competitive game that Michigan led for stretches in and had a chance to rally late, but a mix of mistakes and a near no-show performance from Hunter Dickinson proved too much for Juwan Howard's team. 

The teams traded buckets through the first four minutes before Michigan got a strong stretch of play to assert control of the first half. An 11-3 Michigan run, coming mostly with Tarris Reed Jr. on the floor at center, gave Michigan a 20-12 advantage with under twelve minutes remaining in the opening frame. The Wolverine offense was functioning well, solid ball movement and execution on open looks, leading to a stretch in which Michigan scored on seven straight possessions. The defense was holding up alright, but it was the offensive fluidity that had the Wolverines in possession. 

It was also the derailment of said offensive fluidity that led to North Carolina getting control of the game back. After taking a 22-15 lead with 11:23 remaining in the first half, Michigan would score just six points in seven minutes, before Jett Howard's jumper snapped the spell. Well, only temporarily. That shot gave Michigan 30 points, and they'd immediately sink back into a three minute drought. In total? Eight points in roughly nine minutes of basketball, not a winning formula. North Carolina upped its defensive compete level, shots stopped falling, and Michigan found its half-court offense stagnating whenever Jett Howard was not on the floor.  

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During that stretch of the game was a moment many will remember from the contest, when Dickinson and Dug McDaniel got tied up in a skirmish with Armando Bacot and Caleb Love after the whistle. All four players involved received technical fouls on the play and the T on Dickinson in particular seemed to send #1, who was already scuffling, into a prolonged funk that would extend into the second half. Bacot solidified his dominance on the interior during the late stages of the first half against both Dickinson and Reed, and it was that in tandem with UNC's perimeter shooting that was the catalyst for Carolina's late half surge. They took the lead back with just over four minutes to play and would go scorching into the break up 41-34. 

At halftime the stat lines from both teams looked reasonably similar. North Carolina had made a few extra shots compared to Michigan, accentuating their edge in threes (6/12) over the Wolverines (2/8). Bacot had 14 compared with Dickinson's 2, while Bufkin and Jett Howard led Michigan with 10 points each. 

The early second half saw Michigan get some of their offensive rhythm back, but the focus turned to the defensive end, where getting stops and defensive rebounds proved to be a problem. Michigan would cut it to four of five, then UNC would go back ahead by ten. Case in point being a sequence that happened around the 12-13 minutes remaining mark: Jett Howard knocked down a three to pull Michigan within five, then got a steal. Michigan went up the floor, but Dug McDaniel's pass was intercepted by Caleb Love for an easy layup. Howard missed a three, Bacot got an easy bucket, and then Dickinson was whistled for an offensive foul. Just like that, the margin was back to UNC +9. But a minute later, Michigan stitched together a sequence of a Kobe Bufkin three followed by a Jett Howard tip-in to pull it to four. 61-57 Tar Heels. 

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It was that sort of half. Michigan never pulled even, but never trailed by more than a dozen. My notes document those two extremes, writing down when it felt like the Wolverines were getting close, and also when it seemed like the game was on the verge of a blowout. The equilibrium was somewhere in between. One of those UNC runs ended with around five minutes remaining, as North Carolina led 69-60 it was unclear if the closing minutes would be meaningful. Michigan could've thrown in the towel then, mired in a stretch of nearly 6.5 minutes without making a FG. Instead, they kept fighting.

A Joey Baker three off a steal made it a three point game with under four remaining. Michigan got another stop, but then a Dug McDaniel turnover ended that opportunity in its tracks. After that point, Michigan would never again have the ball and a chance to tie the game. Terrance Williams II hit a three to cut the margin to two, something that happened again after a tough Kobe Bufkin make with 90 seconds left. But in between Michigan simply couldn't get the stops/rebounds they needed, and eventually their valiant effort staying close behind the Tar Heels came up short. Final score: UNC 80, Michigan 76. 

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The story of the game from a box score standpoint, and frankly from a "watching the game" standpoint, was the massive mismatch in quality of play from the two teams' big men. Armando Bacot of UNC was 11/15 for 26 points with zero turnovers. Hunter Dickinson was 3/9 for 9 points with three turnovers and (ultimately) five fouls. Dickinson, ostensibly Michigan's best player, was woeful. Ineffective offensively, whipped defensively, and dealing with foul trouble. Michigan had no defensive solution for Bacot, and couldn't get any offense to compensate on the other end, be it from Dickinson or Reed. The rest of the team played pretty well, quality nights from Bufkin (22) and Jett Howard (17) standing out, and the team shot a solid 39.1% from three. Yet a massive hole at the five was enough to sink the ship of the Maize & Blue in Charlotte. 

Michigan falls to 7-4 on the season, with one more non-conference game next Thursday against Central Michigan. After that they will return to the B1G slate, hosting Penn State on New Year's Day, entering conference play badly in need of quality wins after striking out against all three of UNC, Virginia, and Kentucky. The box score is after the jump. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Box score]

THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan meets a familiar foe in a similar spot: it's North Carolina for the third time in four years, and both teams are amongst the more disappointing outfits in the country after 2021-22 campaigns that saw the teams make it in the tournament in the "also receiving votes" area of the bracket.

Much more was expected out of UNC after they got four starters back and plugged the gap with coveted transfer Pete Nance; the Tarheels were your preseason #1 team. That held up for five games until a four-game losing streak against Iowa State, Alabama (in four OTs), Indiana, and Virginia Tech. They rebounded for a 5-point OT win over Kenpom top-20 team Ohio State a few days ago, and enter this game in better shape than Michigan as a result.

This is a massive game for Michigan's tourney chances; it's their last opportunity at a meaningful nonconference win after narrowly missing against UVA and UK. This one is almost a must-have.

THE US

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THE LINEUP CARD

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