2019-20 basketball preview

We are roundtabling our Big Ten basketball thoughts instead of doing a draftageddon thing.

Last time:

Seth: So, are we in Annually Overhyped About Iowa stage now?

Ace: [looks at Brian]

Alex: Penn State > Iowa, change my mind.

Iowa

[noises] [Patrick Barron]

Ace: To me, this is a downgrade from last year, when you had Bohannon/Cook/Moss/Baer. In their place they’ve got an extra McCaffrey, a not-that-productive Valpo transfer, and Jack Nunge. I have PSU eighth and Iowa ninth, so I’m not inclined to do that. One of those teams cares about defense. That’s the other thing about Iowa: they were 111th in adjusted defense last year and got less athletic.

Brian: Year two Weiskamp can overcome some of those things, and ... uh. Yeah losing Bohannon is probably doom.

Seth:

Fran McCaffery told reporters that he thinks Jordan Bohannon (hip) will play in Iowa's exhibition game on Monday. Significant Big Ten news.

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) October 30, 2019

Brian: BACK ON THE BANDWAGON

Ace: Prediction: This is gonna go like Spike's first senior year. Bohannon’s recent quotes have basically been “I’m gonna give it a shot, i guess.”

Brian: /kicks rocks

Ace: Maybe Luke Garza is no longer the worst defensive center this side of Joey Brunk? I have my doubts but that would help.

[After THE JUMP: All-Big Ten defensive team, etc.]

Previously: (Rather Early) Season Preview Podcast (post-Franz-injury update in last week's Ace Pod), Big Ten Tiers Part One, Big Ten Tiers Part Two, Position Preview: Definitely Guards, Position Preview: Wings, Position Preview: Bigs, Five Questions/Five Answers

Tonight: Appalachian State

Juwan Howard isn't the only coach making his debut for a new team tonight at Crisler. Appalachian State fired Jim Fox after an 11-21 season capped a five-year tenure in which he never finished above .500 in the Sun Belt.

His replacement is Dustin Kerns, who's in his third year as a head coach; his first two were spent taking Presbyterian from a 5-25 record the year before his arrival to a 20-16 mark last season while breaking a six-year program streak of finishing in the 300s on KenPom (#179! Skipped the 200s entirely!). That's a very good time to find greener pastures.

Kerns runs a very three-point heavy offensive system; Presbyterian was 14th in 3PA/FGA last year and 25th in 3P%. The Mountaineers return a high-volume gunner in guard James Forrest, who used 29% of their possessions last year with 44/35/73 (2P%/3P%/FT%) shooting splits and a free-throw rate approaching 50. Unless a freshman breaks out, though, it doesn't look like anyone else is a major volume scoring threat from the outside, and Michigan has Zavier Simpson to cut down Forrest's production.

KenPom predicts an 18-point win. Bart Torvik ups the ante to 20.5. As long as there isn't a huge gap in three-point shooting, this should be a comfortable victory, even though Appalachian State is friskier than M's usual early-season cannon-fodder by virtue of projecting towards the top of the 200s instead of being truly bottom-barrel.

[Hit THE JUMP for this year's story and predictions of all varieties.]

Previously: (Rather Early) Season Preview Podcast (post-Franz-injury update in last week's Ace Pod), Big Ten Tiers Part One, Big Ten Tiers Part Two, Position Preview: Definitely Guards, Position Preview: Wings, Position Preview: Bigs

Michigan hasn't faced a season with this much change in over a decade. We all have questions. These are the most pressing at the moment.

What Is Juwan Howard's Offense Going To Look Like?

big-to-big passing​ is going to increase by a factor of, uh, infinity? [Campredon]

The Miami Heat's with a longer shot clock. The coaching staff has said as much and the scrimmages they've played so far has confirmed it.

Some things won't change much. Zavier Simpson is still going to be the player with the ball in his hands creating the most shots for others. There's going to be a lot of pick-and-roll and variations thereof. Much of the offense is going to stem from the two-man game between Simpson and Teske. The team is still going to shoot a lot of threes.

But there will be possessions that look unlike anything John Beilein ran. Here are some of the biggest expected changes:

Greater emphasis on the big men. The bigs preview featured a couple clips of stuff that'll be pretty standard: an off-ball screen to get Jon Teske an easy post-up bucket and a horns set featuring Teske in the high post threading a bounce pass to Brandon Johns for a layup. Beilein was one of the most post-averse coaches in the country; that will not be the case with Howard. He opened both halves of the SVSU game with post-ups; I'd be shocked if that happened even one time under Beilein.

That'll also be a change from the Heat, but the circumstances are different: Howard's big men at Michigan are more likely to have mismatches down low—not a lot of college teams have a skilled seven-footer—and the longer shot clock allows them more time to go to work on the block.

Pushing the tempo. Beilein coached some of the most deliberate offenses in the country; his teams finished in the 300s in adjusted tempo in eight of his last ten years, per KenPom. Last season, they played only six games with 70 or more possessions and surpassed 72 once (75 vs. Brad Underwood's Runnin' Illini).

Michigan had 72 possessions in Friday's exhibition and were on pace for 74 at the half before taking their foot off the gas late. They pushed the ball up the court off defensive rebounds and hunted early shots. While the team needs to hone their shot selection—open early threes are good, contested early long twos less so—the change in approach really worked for Isaiah Livers, who got a lot of his offense early in the clock. This is not a shot Beilein would've liked:

I like it, and I'd love it if Livers shot it a little more on balance. An open look from three for your best shooter is a good shot regardless of when it comes in the possession. You're often more likely to get those looks when the defense is scrambling back to find their matchups. Michigan has a skilled passing big man, an excellent rebounding point guard, and a bunch of plus athletes. They also might not have the most efficient halfcourt offense this season.

You'll see a few more turnovers (inevitable no matter what given Beilein's incredible track record) and some questionable jumpers; you'll also see more dunks and transition threes. That could be a particularly worthwhile tradeoff given this team's personnel.

Less complicated in general. Beilein's offense was designed in part to maximize the long college shot clock, which made it difficult to defend and just as difficult to learn; each set had seemingly endless variations. While the results spoke for themselves, there were some self-imposed limitations—point guards in particular could take a long time to get comfortable and even the team's stars usually needed a year of limited usage before becoming a lead player in the offense.

Howard comes from the NBA, where the 24-second clock leads to a more freewheeling style; if your first option for a play is taken away, you don't have much time to squeeze in a second or third option before it's time to get the ball to a late-clock scorer and get out of the way. Howard also wants to appeal to five-star talent, and that means giving your top scorers a certain level of leeway that Beilein was hesitant to allow; they also usually like to see a certain level of tempo.

The best 15 or so minutes you can spend getting ready for the season is going through this thread of videos from Eric Shapiro detailing the sets Howard is expected to run based on his time in Miami. A common trait is that they're quick-hitting, relatively simple plays that have just enough variations to keep defenses off balance:

First up: Pistol - This set is commonly used in early offense. It's simple to get into, starting with a pass to the wing, but is difficult to defend w/ many read & react options after the initial pass. The most frequent option allows the guard (X) to make plays after a hand-back: pic.twitter.com/inoZ8gqvtq

— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) October 28, 2019

It's going to look a lot different; the good news is the players should be able to pick up on the nuances of the offense faster than they would've if they had to learn Beilein's offense anew.

[Hit THE JUMP for defensive transition costs, Wagner injury impact, who's gonna score, and a stab at the rotation.]