To an extent but Stroud didn't have a series of lower-body injuries, wasn't 23, and had shown mobility outside of the pocket at OSU to a degree that you could see it was there if he needed it.
Also, Stroud's drop off under pressure wasn't great (I think it was mid-to-low 50% completion percentage) but I saw today that Penix under pressure last year was 41% and 5 TDs to 6 picks. That's not great to a degree far worse than Stroud. And again, he's a guy with physical limits that Stroud didn't have.
Penix might buck the trend as well but I also sense that GMs might be doing what they did with Josh Allen a bit, where the one time an inaccurate QB in college became really good in the pros makes them overlook the bevy who didn't. Same with Penix and Stroud, where the one guy who really morphed into a solid under pressure guy makes people ignore the myriad of guys who turf throws with a blitz on the way
Yeah, he averages 9 ypa, more than Drake May, and had an average depth of target if 10.3 yards, which was more than Williams or Nix. The idea that 3,000 yards is some sacred efficiency number and not just a byproduct of throwing the ball 400 times a season is crazy to me. And let's be honest - McCarthy threw against something like 5 of the top 10 defenses in the country this year while most of these other guys threw against mediocre defenses regularly.
So I read that touchdown wire article because I thought "that sounds like some dumb analysis, wonder what else they think" and they gave a B grade to the Falcons for Penix and said this:
Well, this was unexpected. Michael Penix Jr. is the best pure thrower in this draft class, and he’s got a ton of weapons in his new home, but the Falcons just gave Kirk Cousins a mega-contract. It will be fascinating to see how Raheem Morris lines this all up, but Penix’s talent is undeniable if he can fix some iffy throws under pressure.
So yes, if Penix finds a way to not play poorly when the other team gets pressure on him he'll be great, which is something that applies to every QB drafted ever. I like Penix enough as a QB but at some point "he can't move and turns into a below average QB when blitzed" is a bad sign for your future franchise QB.
What also drives me crazy about the Packers is that they get the benefit of these awesome QBs and then get rid of them right when their assholishness and hubris comes out and they crater. I fully expect Love to have a 10-year HOF-level career and then turn go to the Bengals or Dolphins exactly 2 months before it turns out he kicked puppies before every game to get focused.
I posted this below but Nix threw 28% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage and had an average downfield to target of 7 yards; McCarthy was 10.3 and that's up there with guys like May and Penix and ahead of Williams.
The criticism of McCarthy is that he didn't pass enough and that the team ran the ball too much. You can (incorrectly, IMO) argue that McCarthy wasn't asked to carry a team like a 1st-rounder typically is but when asked he pushed the ball downfield, especially in the middle of the field. Having over a quarter of your passes no reach the line of scrimmage is some MSU-level quarterbacking.
I don't think he's a good QB but he has elite speed and you can do something with that; what is Nix's elite trait? He's absolutely not shown an ability to throw downfield - 28% of his passes this year were behind the line of scrimmage and he had an average depth of target of 7 yards, which is pretty bad. By comparison, McCarthy's was 10, Carson Beck was 8.5, Penix's was 13.5, and basically every other QB of note was in that 9+ range. So he's got a mediocre arm, they don't trust him to throw downfield, he's not much of an athlete, and he's old. Feels like a huge waste of a valuable pick on a guy with no real upside.
Also, my guess is Fields starts a game this year in Pittsburgh especially if Wilson gets hurt. So yeah, Nix will absolutely get a chance to start because if you draft a guy #12 and then don't let him start a couple of games that's insane and admitting defeat but I'd be surprised if Nix isn't a massive bust in a couple of seasons.
Sure, but are we sure Nix can? The big thing about the Oregon offense is it puts huge training wheels on your QB that a lot of his growth and maturity might just be a by-product of the system. I remember watching Nix at Auburn and he certainly didn't seem like a first-round pick and even this year he had those brain-fart throws where his first read wasn't open and he just threw into trouble. With Fields you at least have a guy who can run a little and Chicago was so badly coached that maybe, if you squint, you can hope to fix him in a better place. Nix feels like a known commodity who was properly rated as a third/fourth-rounder, low-ceiling/high-floor QB.
Latu is a solid edge defender in a weak year, but having seen UM against Washington's vaunted OL in pass blocking I do wonder if the Pac-12 might have inflated some of his numbers a bit. Dallas Turner here would have been fine by me as well.
Still, crazy we're basically midway through the draft and finally a defensive player was taken.
Sure, but if you want a QB for a year then I'd have talked to Chicago about Fields or Washington about Howell, two younger guys who have shown they can actually play in the NFL. And Denver has a lot of holes (thanks to the Russell trade) and now they've wasted another high pick on a guy who's ceiling is probably "average Daniel Jones season". I get Connelly's argument but I'd have taken Dallas Turner or the Oregon St. tackle then instead of Nix. It's more that you passed up better players at their respective positions than the #6 QB who was a 2nd/3rd-round pick level talent, at best.
What's also crazy about a bunch of these teams stretching for a QB is that Justin Fields, a QB who has played 3 NFL seasons and is about 1 year older than Bo Nix, was gotten for a bargain. You can't tell me that if you think you're just a QB away you wouldn't have tried riding with that guy over hoping Nix turns into a competent QB.
Yeah, it wasn't across the concensus but it's still crazy to see these guys try to defend awful picks. McCarthy at, say, #5 would have been a bit of a reach but he's a steal at #10. Penix at #20 would have been a stretch, but #8 (followed by Nix at #12) are just indefensible decisions.
He's always struck me as a guy that people talk about in terms of potential more than on-field results, and at some point you look up and you've got a 4th-year OT who's, like, the 17th-best OT in the league and you have to pay him a ton to keep his mediocrity.
Happy for JJ, and it's insane to listen to the NFL analysts talk about how McCarthy is the bigget gamble in a draft where Michael F'ing Penix was taken #8 by a team paying at least $100M for Kirk Cousins to be QB1 for 2 years.
Anyway, seems like we've gotten to the part of the draft where dumb teams are going to keep making bad selections and smart teams (like the Vikings) make the right ones.
Falcons with an absolutely insane pick, but hey the paid a guy coming off an ACL $100M to be a mid QB so maybe it's their jam. Might as well pay another guy big rookie money who struggles when you get him off platform.
I think Daniels is talented and never he'll pull a Stroud but the next Brian Kelly QB who plays well in the NFL will be the first and I worry he's a guy who will run into injuries with his play style
Nabers is a unique guy because he's not shaped like a big outside WR you usually seen taken so high in the draft; he's 6' and 200 lbs, so about the same size as Roman Wilson. In the right system he's fantastic but my one concern if I'm drafting him is he's not going to be a huge downfield contested catch guy and you gotta not try to make him into one in your offense because he's your X receiver.
Feels like they'll get 14 guys drafted, which is pretty insane given the fact they had 16 players total drafted in the preceeding 5 seasons before Harbaugh arrived.
Yes and no. I agree the NCAA isn't on the hook but they wouldn't be anyway. But while schools aren't directly paying out to players there's a finite amount of money boosters/collectives have and previously a decent chunk of that money was going to the schools for various fundraising measures. If that is funneled to the players the schools see less of it. So indirectly it is costing them something.
MSU lost Harmon, their 3rd-year starting DT, and Bai Jobe, a top 60 recruit, while Michigan lost a solid CB2 option in Waller and a couple of depth guys who hadn't seen the field.
Also, there were rumblings even before the spring game that some guys would leave, so 3 in 2 days isn't something terrible. If UM has multiple starters or top-end recruits bolt then that's a time to be concerned.
Has a Belleville player ever worked out at UM/CFB more generally? Feels like that school has a ton of talent but they always sort of falter at this level.
Yes, some players may wind up leaving the team you like for a situation that doesn't wind up actually being in their best interests. But at least they'll be able to negotiate some of that in the open and will, you assume, have more transparency and opportunity to determine their financial value. This isn't some great tragedy that a guy who wanted to be treated as a starter wasn't and thus took an opportunity to play elsewhere.
The system before this vested immense power in rich, mostly older, mostly white men who were coaches who could control player movement and access, with a layer above them being the billion-dollar organizations that garnered said billions off the backs of these athletes who were blocked by yet another group of largely older, rich men from getting virtually any above-board access to the immense money they generate because of "something something amateurism something something love of the game". And guys were still getting paid under-the-table at this time, but with far less negotiating power and still highly restricted movement opportunities.
The issue is that the same organization that made it their mission to stop players from gaining access to their wealth then had no functional idea how to govern said players once they got this access, despite seeing that particular train coming literally miles down the track. This should come as no surprise to UM fans but the NCAA's gross incompetence at fashioning a functional player compensation and NIL process is why you have Kentucky-like situations, and so seemingly blaming the players because they're trying to navigate this wild west seems silly to me.
Hill looked just as good as CB2, and McBurrows played well and has more experience and is arguably a better fit for nickel. And Edmond is a highly regarded recruit from this past season. It's hard these days to keep guys with starting aspirations if you can't promise a starting role, and so my guess is it's a combination of wanting to see the field plus a team willing to offer an NIL package for that spot while UM isn't necessarily going to commit those types of resources to a guy who's in the mix for a spot but with other capable guys also competing is my point.
Maybe, or the vast majority of his coaches on defense left and he saw a path to better playing time elsewhere. When UM gets a guy in the portal (like May has) but also loses guys (like May has) do we assume the NIL only sorta works?
Maybe this is about money but my guess is some school saw a guy who played some meaningful snaps on a title team as a freshman and said they'd give me a clearer path to a starting spot and he jumped at it, especially since his coach (Clink) also left.
Yeah, a surprise but there were rumblings of guys looking to transfer after the spring game. I guess he either didn't like his chances of getting CB2 or saw a better path to playing time elsewhere.
Wish him luck and, hell, he's leaving with a ring.
I largely agree - it'll be an okay team in conference and fighting for a bid. I said in other threads that .500 in this conference feels about right as a floor, and maybe that ticks up a bit if these guys gel quicker than expected but it's still a team with some issues talent-wise, especially on defense, in the front court that you probably can't paper over in one season, even if a guy like Rooths comes into the fold. And the guards all have the type of high risk/high reward style that'll probably keep them competitive in games but also means you'll get some loose turnovers on drives and late-game sets that will be annoying.
Still, it's looking like a team that can compete in a conference that doesn't look to have a dominant top-line team coming into the season, and with some luck I definitely could see them finish 4th/5th in said conference as a ceiling. That'll be a bid with some breathing room. If everything goes pear-shaped then it's 9-11/8-12 but a team that shows life and is likely improving toward the end of the season.
This was such a dumb punishment for him I'm glad they gave it back, but Bush rather egregiously broke a clear NCAA rule. He wasn't some victim of circumstance. It's why I'm more inclined to believe, had Harbaugh stuck around, UM might have gotten throttled pretty hard for the Stallions situation - even though I honestly believe nobody of importance at UM knew what he was doing it was also a bright-line rule he was dumb enough to get caught violating. Now Bush was a star while Stallions was just a dude in an office but I've long contended if you're dumb enough to get caught by the idiots running the NCAA they're likely going to stomp on you for it.
Yeah, I think it's dumb that they took the Heisman from him because lots of guys were likely guilty of similar infractions but they were also rules that everyone knew about and he was dumb enough to get caught by the NCAA for it.
And he didn't really suffer anything in the intervening years - he couldn't be on some dumb Heisman House commercials but he was a first round NFL pick, got paid millions of dollars, won a SB, has been handsomely paid for years to be an analyst, has Wendy's commercials, briefly dated Kim Kardashian, and now just got his Heisman back.
Yeah, I just saw that and am a bit surprised - he was projected to be their starter, and played enough last year that he was a bit of a known quantity. I'm not sure NW loved having him as their starter - he was effective in spurts but they clearly preferred Bryant and kept giving him the nod. But probably worth talking to if he's interested, though I assume he's inclined to go to a place with a clearer path to starting.
Yeah, the size jumps out as the positive, and if I remember correctly he was described as athletic but a bit of a late riser/developer so still room to grow. The HS numbers are nice but he apparently plays at a smaller school in Florida so you do always wonder a bit about competition levels. Sounds like he turned some heads on the HS camp/travel circuit, which is good to see.
I still assume he'll need to develop a bit before playing significant minutes but if he can get in 5-6 minutes a game consistently as a freshman that would be great.
A nice pickup, though I'll be honest I have no real read on him beyond what they've said on the podcast and I've read about him. My assumption is he's going to be a developmental player but sounds like he has the athleticism to hang in the P5, which is a positive.
Yeah, Rooths seems like a longshot but this team has already changed its construction so much in the past week that a guy like him might be encouraged that it wouldn't be a wasted year to come play for May and possibly even make the tourney. Georgia and FSU, two other teams he's been linked to recently, aren't particularly inspiring on that front.
Yeah, it was a different time and while I still think a new coach deserves time and grace to rebuild a team (similarly, I'm not judging Moore harshly if UM, relatively speaking, struggles this season), the portal definitely allows good coaches with a solid system/outlook put a proof-of-concept team out there in year 1.
I'm still tempering expectations but rebuilding a roster with a portal sure seems easier than Beilein had to do early on. May seemingly has a plan here and it looks good.
Yeah, it's more that I read he was likely signing for a couple of days now. Definitely true that breaking into that top 100 has been tougher than you'd expect for a defending national champion and a team with a recent run like UM has had for 3 years now.
Ah yes, because apparently "hate" is pointing out that a guy who was a sub-50% passer in HS and who hasn't shown much ability throwing the ball at UM is going to flourish in year 1 with a completely new offensive system that the staff would have to install that is markedly different than the one they used to win a national title and go something like 30-3 the past 3 seasons.
Your opinion is different than mine, and that's fair. Nothing we say here actually matters; none of us will put even the slightest pressure on Moore and co. to pick a QB. But saying "if they don't pick Orji they've conceded a year and will, at best, finish 9-3 without any meaningful accomplishments" I feel it's within the Message Board By-Laws of the Internet to push back with tangible examples of how, in fact, this team has won quite a bit with more limited QBs than the guy with questionable accuracy but a ton of raw ability.
The depth chart just looks more balanced right now than it did toward the end under Howard, and that's a nice sign of optimism. Again, there will be bumps along the way but this looks like a competitive team in this conference as it stands.
Run an option offense with Orji and a chance to repeat as B1G champions, with an equal chance of going 6-6 if Orji goes down.
This feels like a massive projection based on virtually no actual evidence. The "option offense" assumes Orji can run that complex system of reads well, all the backs figure out how to master those same intricacies, and the offensive line and TEs who were recruited and coached in one way of blocking seamlessly migrate to a different one with a first-time HC and OC who, AFAIK, haven't run it before.
On the other hand, Cade McNamara couldn't do anything at an elite level, and to some here was the worst possible QB UM has seen in forever, and won a conference crown and went to the playoffs. So yeah, if they can get a Cade-level performance out of the QB spot then we have evidence of that working out pretty well.
Jalen Milroe was a top-100 player in his class and was an accurate-ish HS passer (60% for his career) while Orji was a 3* kid who completed under 50% of his passes throughout HS, and even if you throw out his first year as a starter he only completed 51% of his passes as an upperclassman. That's got Joe Milton stink on it, and while some people seemingly enjoyed that experienced it got old for me pretty quickly. And Milroe just finished a season where he threw for 10 ypa at 66%, 23 TDs and 6 picks and had elite WRs he was throwing to. Orji isn't anywhere close to that or has that type of WR talent on the team.
Listen, Orji is a top-level athlete and I can see the glimmers of ability there if he can put the passing part of it all together. But he's also been on campus for 3 years now and still looks limited, and at some point you've got a ticking clock on how much realistic time you'd get out of him before eligibility ran out. I suspect they'll give him a shot and create a sub-package for him but him as the team's starting QB has a realistic ceiling that is way lower than some are willing to admit unless we just assume he's been sandbagging for years and is in fact a top-level defense reader and accurate thrower.
I just don't quite get the Orji love as a starting QB. Maybe he figures it all out but he's entering his third year on campus and is going to be 21 midway through the season. He's got some ability but if you switch the offense completely around to cater to his strengths (running, athleticism) then you're (a) limiting your upside elsewhere with the other QBs on the roster for this season, and (b) signalling that you should probably start recruiting QBs like him going forward because otherwise you're just going to be flipping around your offense in a year or two once he's not the starter and, I don't know, Davis is your preferred starter. There's some overlap in terms of skillsets there but that's still a different style of QB (the Jalen Milroe-type guy who was a bruiser but could also throw decently if unrefined) versus what UM liked to get under Harbaugh (the JJ type who was really accurate as a passer and had enough athleticism to be a weapon with the ball in his hands). OSU under Urban Meyer made the decision to go away from the JT types to the Haskins/Stroud types and didn't look back, and thats the type of buy-in Moore would similarly need to make. He may very well do so, but that's the choice you'd need to make.
Also, the Rich Rod offense we all remember isn't really the one you'd love to run in 2024 football IMO. He runs it at places like Jax St. because it works with the talent he's got available to him and the relative competition (the CUSA is pretty mediocre outside of Liberty, which is itself sort of a mediocre program that just outspends the other schools). But there was an article I read a couple years ago where they asked coaches what part of "dual threat" they liked more in their QBs and all said arm talent and accuracy. Most guys can move enough now that they aren't John Navarre types back there, and you can scheme a couple of runs a game for QBs if you need them. But guys like Milroe, Daniels, Lamar Jackson in the NFL as well as college, etc. work because they are decent passers and can make teams pay even when they don't bite on the run, and I'm not seeing that with Orji yet. Warren is closer to that type of QB, and if the rumors about his injuries last year are true then he's the better option, along with Tuttle, for this season with Orji coming in as a package asset until/if he becomes a more complete passer.
As for the basketball roster discussion, I'm not sold they're a top-4 in the conference type of team but they have a floor that is .500 in the conference and a bubble contender. That's a reasonable expectation given the fact we're still talking about a lot of transfers and most of the guys needing to learn a new offensive and defensive system.
I won't pile on too much but this happens every year and people freak out. WF, Syracuse, and Texas Tech are all ranked in the top 12 mostly on volume. It's a largely new staff with a first time HC. Give them some time. Also, Harbaugh leaving when he did and taking the guys he did doubly didn't help.
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To an extent but Stroud didn't have a series of lower-body injuries, wasn't 23, and had shown mobility outside of the pocket at OSU to a degree that you could see it was there if he needed it.
Also, Stroud's drop off under pressure wasn't great (I think it was mid-to-low 50% completion percentage) but I saw today that Penix under pressure last year was 41% and 5 TDs to 6 picks. That's not great to a degree far worse than Stroud. And again, he's a guy with physical limits that Stroud didn't have.
Penix might buck the trend as well but I also sense that GMs might be doing what they did with Josh Allen a bit, where the one time an inaccurate QB in college became really good in the pros makes them overlook the bevy who didn't. Same with Penix and Stroud, where the one guy who really morphed into a solid under pressure guy makes people ignore the myriad of guys who turf throws with a blitz on the way
Yeah, he averages 9 ypa, more than Drake May, and had an average depth of target if 10.3 yards, which was more than Williams or Nix. The idea that 3,000 yards is some sacred efficiency number and not just a byproduct of throwing the ball 400 times a season is crazy to me. And let's be honest - McCarthy threw against something like 5 of the top 10 defenses in the country this year while most of these other guys threw against mediocre defenses regularly.
So I read that touchdown wire article because I thought "that sounds like some dumb analysis, wonder what else they think" and they gave a B grade to the Falcons for Penix and said this:
So yes, if Penix finds a way to not play poorly when the other team gets pressure on him he'll be great, which is something that applies to every QB drafted ever. I like Penix enough as a QB but at some point "he can't move and turns into a below average QB when blitzed" is a bad sign for your future franchise QB.
Great trade there. Love Arnold at 24.
Yeah, people crap on Manny Diaz for that game (and he deserves it to an extent) but Robinson absolutely got moved any time he tried to stop the run.
What also drives me crazy about the Packers is that they get the benefit of these awesome QBs and then get rid of them right when their assholishness and hubris comes out and they crater. I fully expect Love to have a 10-year HOF-level career and then turn go to the Bengals or Dolphins exactly 2 months before it turns out he kicked puppies before every game to get focused.
I posted this below but Nix threw 28% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage and had an average downfield to target of 7 yards; McCarthy was 10.3 and that's up there with guys like May and Penix and ahead of Williams.
The criticism of McCarthy is that he didn't pass enough and that the team ran the ball too much. You can (incorrectly, IMO) argue that McCarthy wasn't asked to carry a team like a 1st-rounder typically is but when asked he pushed the ball downfield, especially in the middle of the field. Having over a quarter of your passes no reach the line of scrimmage is some MSU-level quarterbacking.
I don't think he's a good QB but he has elite speed and you can do something with that; what is Nix's elite trait? He's absolutely not shown an ability to throw downfield - 28% of his passes this year were behind the line of scrimmage and he had an average depth of target of 7 yards, which is pretty bad. By comparison, McCarthy's was 10, Carson Beck was 8.5, Penix's was 13.5, and basically every other QB of note was in that 9+ range. So he's got a mediocre arm, they don't trust him to throw downfield, he's not much of an athlete, and he's old. Feels like a huge waste of a valuable pick on a guy with no real upside.
Also, my guess is Fields starts a game this year in Pittsburgh especially if Wilson gets hurt. So yeah, Nix will absolutely get a chance to start because if you draft a guy #12 and then don't let him start a couple of games that's insane and admitting defeat but I'd be surprised if Nix isn't a massive bust in a couple of seasons.
Sure, but are we sure Nix can? The big thing about the Oregon offense is it puts huge training wheels on your QB that a lot of his growth and maturity might just be a by-product of the system. I remember watching Nix at Auburn and he certainly didn't seem like a first-round pick and even this year he had those brain-fart throws where his first read wasn't open and he just threw into trouble. With Fields you at least have a guy who can run a little and Chicago was so badly coached that maybe, if you squint, you can hope to fix him in a better place. Nix feels like a known commodity who was properly rated as a third/fourth-rounder, low-ceiling/high-floor QB.
Latu is a solid edge defender in a weak year, but having seen UM against Washington's vaunted OL in pass blocking I do wonder if the Pac-12 might have inflated some of his numbers a bit. Dallas Turner here would have been fine by me as well.
Still, crazy we're basically midway through the draft and finally a defensive player was taken.
Sure, but if you want a QB for a year then I'd have talked to Chicago about Fields or Washington about Howell, two younger guys who have shown they can actually play in the NFL. And Denver has a lot of holes (thanks to the Russell trade) and now they've wasted another high pick on a guy who's ceiling is probably "average Daniel Jones season". I get Connelly's argument but I'd have taken Dallas Turner or the Oregon St. tackle then instead of Nix. It's more that you passed up better players at their respective positions than the #6 QB who was a 2nd/3rd-round pick level talent, at best.
Apparently Peyton Manning was a huge fan of Nix and pushed for him in Denver, which really should be treated as a black mark on his HOF career.
What's also crazy about a bunch of these teams stretching for a QB is that Justin Fields, a QB who has played 3 NFL seasons and is about 1 year older than Bo Nix, was gotten for a bargain. You can't tell me that if you think you're just a QB away you wouldn't have tried riding with that guy over hoping Nix turns into a competent QB.
Yeah, it wasn't across the concensus but it's still crazy to see these guys try to defend awful picks. McCarthy at, say, #5 would have been a bit of a reach but he's a steal at #10. Penix at #20 would have been a stretch, but #8 (followed by Nix at #12) are just indefensible decisions.
I was going to say that at this point the Falcons trading up to the bottom of the first round to take Joe Milton is absolutely on the table.
I can't imagine being a GM and taking Bo Nix over Brock Bowers and retaining your job after this season. Just insanity.
He's always struck me as a guy that people talk about in terms of potential more than on-field results, and at some point you look up and you've got a 4th-year OT who's, like, the 17th-best OT in the league and you have to pay him a ton to keep his mediocrity.
Happy for him but annoyed as a Lions fan because he'll be good there.
It is pretty amazing that half of the top 10 lost to the guy taken #10. Feels like that doesn't happen too often.
Happy for JJ, and it's insane to listen to the NFL analysts talk about how McCarthy is the bigget gamble in a draft where Michael F'ing Penix was taken #8 by a team paying at least $100M for Kirk Cousins to be QB1 for 2 years.
Anyway, seems like we've gotten to the part of the draft where dumb teams are going to keep making bad selections and smart teams (like the Vikings) make the right ones.
Falcons with an absolutely insane pick, but hey the paid a guy coming off an ACL $100M to be a mid QB so maybe it's their jam. Might as well pay another guy big rookie money who struggles when you get him off platform.
I think Daniels is talented and never he'll pull a Stroud but the next Brian Kelly QB who plays well in the NFL will be the first and I worry he's a guy who will run into injuries with his play style
Nabers is a unique guy because he's not shaped like a big outside WR you usually seen taken so high in the draft; he's 6' and 200 lbs, so about the same size as Roman Wilson. In the right system he's fantastic but my one concern if I'm drafting him is he's not going to be a huge downfield contested catch guy and you gotta not try to make him into one in your offense because he's your X receiver.
Feels like they'll get 14 guys drafted, which is pretty insane given the fact they had 16 players total drafted in the preceeding 5 seasons before Harbaugh arrived.
Yes and no. I agree the NCAA isn't on the hook but they wouldn't be anyway. But while schools aren't directly paying out to players there's a finite amount of money boosters/collectives have and previously a decent chunk of that money was going to the schools for various fundraising measures. If that is funneled to the players the schools see less of it. So indirectly it is costing them something.
MSU lost Harmon, their 3rd-year starting DT, and Bai Jobe, a top 60 recruit, while Michigan lost a solid CB2 option in Waller and a couple of depth guys who hadn't seen the field.
Also, there were rumblings even before the spring game that some guys would leave, so 3 in 2 days isn't something terrible. If UM has multiple starters or top-end recruits bolt then that's a time to be concerned.
Wish him luck.
Has a Belleville player ever worked out at UM/CFB more generally? Feels like that school has a ton of talent but they always sort of falter at this level.
Yes, some players may wind up leaving the team you like for a situation that doesn't wind up actually being in their best interests. But at least they'll be able to negotiate some of that in the open and will, you assume, have more transparency and opportunity to determine their financial value. This isn't some great tragedy that a guy who wanted to be treated as a starter wasn't and thus took an opportunity to play elsewhere.
The system before this vested immense power in rich, mostly older, mostly white men who were coaches who could control player movement and access, with a layer above them being the billion-dollar organizations that garnered said billions off the backs of these athletes who were blocked by yet another group of largely older, rich men from getting virtually any above-board access to the immense money they generate because of "something something amateurism something something love of the game". And guys were still getting paid under-the-table at this time, but with far less negotiating power and still highly restricted movement opportunities.
The issue is that the same organization that made it their mission to stop players from gaining access to their wealth then had no functional idea how to govern said players once they got this access, despite seeing that particular train coming literally miles down the track. This should come as no surprise to UM fans but the NCAA's gross incompetence at fashioning a functional player compensation and NIL process is why you have Kentucky-like situations, and so seemingly blaming the players because they're trying to navigate this wild west seems silly to me.
Hill looked just as good as CB2, and McBurrows played well and has more experience and is arguably a better fit for nickel. And Edmond is a highly regarded recruit from this past season. It's hard these days to keep guys with starting aspirations if you can't promise a starting role, and so my guess is it's a combination of wanting to see the field plus a team willing to offer an NIL package for that spot while UM isn't necessarily going to commit those types of resources to a guy who's in the mix for a spot but with other capable guys also competing is my point.
Maybe, or the vast majority of his coaches on defense left and he saw a path to better playing time elsewhere. When UM gets a guy in the portal (like May has) but also loses guys (like May has) do we assume the NIL only sorta works?
Maybe this is about money but my guess is some school saw a guy who played some meaningful snaps on a title team as a freshman and said they'd give me a clearer path to a starting spot and he jumped at it, especially since his coach (Clink) also left.
Yeah, a surprise but there were rumblings of guys looking to transfer after the spring game. I guess he either didn't like his chances of getting CB2 or saw a better path to playing time elsewhere.
Wish him luck and, hell, he's leaving with a ring.
I legitimately thought he was going to MSU early on but seems like a solid fit for Arizona. Excited for him.
I largely agree - it'll be an okay team in conference and fighting for a bid. I said in other threads that .500 in this conference feels about right as a floor, and maybe that ticks up a bit if these guys gel quicker than expected but it's still a team with some issues talent-wise, especially on defense, in the front court that you probably can't paper over in one season, even if a guy like Rooths comes into the fold. And the guards all have the type of high risk/high reward style that'll probably keep them competitive in games but also means you'll get some loose turnovers on drives and late-game sets that will be annoying.
Still, it's looking like a team that can compete in a conference that doesn't look to have a dominant top-line team coming into the season, and with some luck I definitely could see them finish 4th/5th in said conference as a ceiling. That'll be a bid with some breathing room. If everything goes pear-shaped then it's 9-11/8-12 but a team that shows life and is likely improving toward the end of the season.
This was such a dumb punishment for him I'm glad they gave it back, but Bush rather egregiously broke a clear NCAA rule. He wasn't some victim of circumstance. It's why I'm more inclined to believe, had Harbaugh stuck around, UM might have gotten throttled pretty hard for the Stallions situation - even though I honestly believe nobody of importance at UM knew what he was doing it was also a bright-line rule he was dumb enough to get caught violating. Now Bush was a star while Stallions was just a dude in an office but I've long contended if you're dumb enough to get caught by the idiots running the NCAA they're likely going to stomp on you for it.
Yeah, I think it's dumb that they took the Heisman from him because lots of guys were likely guilty of similar infractions but they were also rules that everyone knew about and he was dumb enough to get caught by the NCAA for it.
And he didn't really suffer anything in the intervening years - he couldn't be on some dumb Heisman House commercials but he was a first round NFL pick, got paid millions of dollars, won a SB, has been handsomely paid for years to be an analyst, has Wendy's commercials, briefly dated Kim Kardashian, and now just got his Heisman back.
Yeah, I just saw that and am a bit surprised - he was projected to be their starter, and played enough last year that he was a bit of a known quantity. I'm not sure NW loved having him as their starter - he was effective in spurts but they clearly preferred Bryant and kept giving him the nod. But probably worth talking to if he's interested, though I assume he's inclined to go to a place with a clearer path to starting.
Yeah, the size jumps out as the positive, and if I remember correctly he was described as athletic but a bit of a late riser/developer so still room to grow. The HS numbers are nice but he apparently plays at a smaller school in Florida so you do always wonder a bit about competition levels. Sounds like he turned some heads on the HS camp/travel circuit, which is good to see.
I still assume he'll need to develop a bit before playing significant minutes but if he can get in 5-6 minutes a game consistently as a freshman that would be great.
A nice pickup, though I'll be honest I have no real read on him beyond what they've said on the podcast and I've read about him. My assumption is he's going to be a developmental player but sounds like he has the athleticism to hang in the P5, which is a positive.
Yeah, Rooths seems like a longshot but this team has already changed its construction so much in the past week that a guy like him might be encouraged that it wouldn't be a wasted year to come play for May and possibly even make the tourney. Georgia and FSU, two other teams he's been linked to recently, aren't particularly inspiring on that front.
Yeah, it was a different time and while I still think a new coach deserves time and grace to rebuild a team (similarly, I'm not judging Moore harshly if UM, relatively speaking, struggles this season), the portal definitely allows good coaches with a solid system/outlook put a proof-of-concept team out there in year 1.
I'm still tempering expectations but rebuilding a roster with a portal sure seems easier than Beilein had to do early on. May seemingly has a plan here and it looks good.
Yeah, it's more that I read he was likely signing for a couple of days now. Definitely true that breaking into that top 100 has been tougher than you'd expect for a defending national champion and a team with a recent run like UM has had for 3 years now.
Ah yes, because apparently "hate" is pointing out that a guy who was a sub-50% passer in HS and who hasn't shown much ability throwing the ball at UM is going to flourish in year 1 with a completely new offensive system that the staff would have to install that is markedly different than the one they used to win a national title and go something like 30-3 the past 3 seasons.
Your opinion is different than mine, and that's fair. Nothing we say here actually matters; none of us will put even the slightest pressure on Moore and co. to pick a QB. But saying "if they don't pick Orji they've conceded a year and will, at best, finish 9-3 without any meaningful accomplishments" I feel it's within the Message Board By-Laws of the Internet to push back with tangible examples of how, in fact, this team has won quite a bit with more limited QBs than the guy with questionable accuracy but a ton of raw ability.
Yeah, I noted this elsewhere but UM had a run of small-ish guards who could be moved around; that's not the case with guys like Donaldson and Gayle.
The depth chart just looks more balanced right now than it did toward the end under Howard, and that's a nice sign of optimism. Again, there will be bumps along the way but this looks like a competitive team in this conference as it stands.
Not a surprise but absolutely no complaints about a top-50 guy on the defensive line.
This feels like a massive projection based on virtually no actual evidence. The "option offense" assumes Orji can run that complex system of reads well, all the backs figure out how to master those same intricacies, and the offensive line and TEs who were recruited and coached in one way of blocking seamlessly migrate to a different one with a first-time HC and OC who, AFAIK, haven't run it before.
On the other hand, Cade McNamara couldn't do anything at an elite level, and to some here was the worst possible QB UM has seen in forever, and won a conference crown and went to the playoffs. So yeah, if they can get a Cade-level performance out of the QB spot then we have evidence of that working out pretty well.
Jalen Milroe was a top-100 player in his class and was an accurate-ish HS passer (60% for his career) while Orji was a 3* kid who completed under 50% of his passes throughout HS, and even if you throw out his first year as a starter he only completed 51% of his passes as an upperclassman. That's got Joe Milton stink on it, and while some people seemingly enjoyed that experienced it got old for me pretty quickly. And Milroe just finished a season where he threw for 10 ypa at 66%, 23 TDs and 6 picks and had elite WRs he was throwing to. Orji isn't anywhere close to that or has that type of WR talent on the team.
Listen, Orji is a top-level athlete and I can see the glimmers of ability there if he can put the passing part of it all together. But he's also been on campus for 3 years now and still looks limited, and at some point you've got a ticking clock on how much realistic time you'd get out of him before eligibility ran out. I suspect they'll give him a shot and create a sub-package for him but him as the team's starting QB has a realistic ceiling that is way lower than some are willing to admit unless we just assume he's been sandbagging for years and is in fact a top-level defense reader and accurate thrower.
I just don't quite get the Orji love as a starting QB. Maybe he figures it all out but he's entering his third year on campus and is going to be 21 midway through the season. He's got some ability but if you switch the offense completely around to cater to his strengths (running, athleticism) then you're (a) limiting your upside elsewhere with the other QBs on the roster for this season, and (b) signalling that you should probably start recruiting QBs like him going forward because otherwise you're just going to be flipping around your offense in a year or two once he's not the starter and, I don't know, Davis is your preferred starter. There's some overlap in terms of skillsets there but that's still a different style of QB (the Jalen Milroe-type guy who was a bruiser but could also throw decently if unrefined) versus what UM liked to get under Harbaugh (the JJ type who was really accurate as a passer and had enough athleticism to be a weapon with the ball in his hands). OSU under Urban Meyer made the decision to go away from the JT types to the Haskins/Stroud types and didn't look back, and thats the type of buy-in Moore would similarly need to make. He may very well do so, but that's the choice you'd need to make.
Also, the Rich Rod offense we all remember isn't really the one you'd love to run in 2024 football IMO. He runs it at places like Jax St. because it works with the talent he's got available to him and the relative competition (the CUSA is pretty mediocre outside of Liberty, which is itself sort of a mediocre program that just outspends the other schools). But there was an article I read a couple years ago where they asked coaches what part of "dual threat" they liked more in their QBs and all said arm talent and accuracy. Most guys can move enough now that they aren't John Navarre types back there, and you can scheme a couple of runs a game for QBs if you need them. But guys like Milroe, Daniels, Lamar Jackson in the NFL as well as college, etc. work because they are decent passers and can make teams pay even when they don't bite on the run, and I'm not seeing that with Orji yet. Warren is closer to that type of QB, and if the rumors about his injuries last year are true then he's the better option, along with Tuttle, for this season with Orji coming in as a package asset until/if he becomes a more complete passer.
As for the basketball roster discussion, I'm not sold they're a top-4 in the conference type of team but they have a floor that is .500 in the conference and a bubble contender. That's a reasonable expectation given the fact we're still talking about a lot of transfers and most of the guys needing to learn a new offensive and defensive system.
I won't pile on too much but this happens every year and people freak out. WF, Syracuse, and Texas Tech are all ranked in the top 12 mostly on volume. It's a largely new staff with a first time HC. Give them some time. Also, Harbaugh leaving when he did and taking the guys he did doubly didn't help.