Why We are Struggling and How to Fix It
I have a theory as to why we are struggling, and it’s really not that complicated.
Theory:
1st premise: We played a fairly easy non-conference schedule with a few big games and managed to come through with a few miraculous performances.
2nd Premise: The BigTen schedule is more difficult than our non-conference schedule.
Now here are the two MOST IMPORTANT premises:
3rd Premise: The BigTen features bigger players, and a more brusing style of play.
4th Premise: John Beilein’s response to this is to relegate two of our biggest players to the bench and cut Zack Gibson’s minutes.
So…..
Tougher schedule + Opponents with more size – Playing time for our big men = Struggle
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Here is the breakdown of average minutes per game. The “1st half season” represents the first 12 games, Michigan Tech through NC Central (essentially the non-conference schedule). The “2nd half season” represents the last 12 games, Wisconsin through UConn (pretty much the BigTen schedule).
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Anthony Wright
1st half season: 14.08 (and that’s with a combined 17 minutes in the final 5 games)
2nd half season: 3.67
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Jevohn Shepard
1st half season: 15.5
2nd half season: 5.08
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Zack Gibson
1st half season: 14.5
2nd half season: 12.33
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Now for comparison, mighty mite CJ Lee's minutes over that same period of time....
CJ Lee
1st half season: 6.83
2nd half season: 15.3
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Our team is NOT a good three point shooting team, and we’ve been getting killed down low defensively, struggled to get the ball to the rim, and have been consistently out-rebounded.
Playing Jevohn and Anthony more fills those needs as both of them are good defenders, and Jevohn is the only player on our team other than Manny that can slash and get to the rim. Ant Wright is also a fairly adept three-pointer shooter, certainly no worse than Manny, Lee or Merritt. At the very least they are two functional big bodies on a team severely lacking in size.
We also need more size because the four guard lineup is killing us in the BigTen. Zack Novak is a huge defensively liability at the four position. Granted, the kid busts his ass to get every single rebound but a 6-4, skinny, sharp-shooting guard is going to be out-rebounded every single night by the beastly forwards in the BigTen.
I hate to question Beilein, because I know he’s a great coach, and I’m not saying that CJ Lee is single-handedly destroying our tournament hopes, but we have enough hustling guards who shoot in the mid-30% from beyond the arc. We need more size down low, and we have two guys sitting on the bench, and a third who has seen his minutes decline, each of whom would fill this glaring need.
Manny is tired (as he should be, he’s our Mr.Everything) and isn’t getting as much rest as he was in the first half of the season. It’s clear that as a result of our team’s struggles he’s trying to shoulder even more of the load and as a result of the wear of the season and his trying to do more, he has become much more inefficient as of late. No one can replace him, but Jevohn and Anthony can at least provide him with rest, and if both are on the floor at the same time, they more than compensate for loss of size in Manny’s absence.
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All in all, it’s just a theory.
February 10th, 2009 at 10:44 PM ^
I respect CJ Lee's hustle, but I think our pg play on offense needs to improve drastically. An improved grady plus darius morris should help next year.
And of course having a true center next year will help.
February 10th, 2009 at 11:13 PM ^
You don't need fancy stats to know why we suck right now. On 70% of our possessions we throw the ball around the perimeter with nobody making any basket cuts, then as the clock winds down Manny either tries to drive and forces a shot or we finally get a somewhat open 3 look. Also, why does this team never pick and roll? That big white European dude for State was really effective with the pick and roll on the point.
February 11th, 2009 at 12:00 AM ^
I think you've pretty much proven my point.
We throw the ball around the outside and jack up a horrible 3 as the shot clock expires on most of our offensive possessions because we have no slashers, or basket-cutters.
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Basically our offense looks like this:
Teams single cover Peedi down low because he's the only guy in the paint, and he's only effective every other night. Thus leaving four guys to cover the perimeter.
Generally when Manny gets the ball he's double teamed, but the double team sags off, daring him to shoot the three, and taking away his drive. With the combo off Merritt/Lee, Douglass/Novak, and LLP/Grady on the floor, it leaves us with very few options offensively.
Teams are more than willing to leave Lee, Merritt and Grady wide open because they aren't very good 3-point shooters. Although Grady and LLP can penetrate they rarely do so. They can't finish at the rim, and when they're not bombing threes, they generally drive and kick out.
Novak and Douglass are generally hit or miss on any given night, and teams can tell right from the start if one of them is on and then tend to make sure to quickly put a body on them after the drive kick out. They also can't create their own shot or offense for others (Stu shows flashes of it, but again, no consistency), making them a liability offensively if they aren't making threes.
So if no one is making shots, Peedi isn't playing hard, leaving Manny doubled, we are shit outta luck. That's what seems to be happening on a more consistent basis, and why our offense is defunct right now.
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So what do we do to fix it is the question.
The answer is Jevohn Shepherd.
He is a big body, who can penetrate and finish at the rim, forcing teams to help out on him defensively, thus making the defense collapse, and leaving one of our shooters open or Manny single covered.
Perhaps even more importantly, he WANTS to slash, cut and get to the rim. Everyone else on our team seems to only cut because that's what they're coached to do, but they don't want to, and often times will just float to the corners and wait for someone else (aka Manny) to make a play and get them the ball.
Anthony Wright has also proven that offensively he can create shots for other people. The epic backdoor passes to Sims and Shepherd were from Ant Wright. Also, the amazing rebound, and pass while falling out of bounds to Stu Douglass for the three as the shot clock expired; Ant Wright. He is also 6-5, 235lbs, and a solid defender.
Couple this with the post above, and the wheels start turning again both offensively and defensively .
February 11th, 2009 at 12:57 AM ^
I think that it's worth mentioning that LLP is shooting 13 for 56 from 3 point range in Big Ten Play and 5 for 31 from 3 pt. range since we beat Iowa. In games that we've lost, he shot 6 for 32 from 3. He has not broken 10 pts. in a single game since Indiana. As LLP was supposed to be the third option on a team with a rather mediocre lineup outside of Harris and Sims, this is a huge blow. When we beat UCLA and Duke, we won partially because Douglass (4-5 FG v. UCLA) and Novak (4-7 3 pt. v. Duke) filled the role as a 3rd option. And if Sims (8 pts., 4 reb.) had been able to produce against UConn, we may well have won that game as well, thanks to the phenomenal job by Douglass.
February 10th, 2009 at 11:50 PM ^
We held the #9 team in the country to 54 points tonight...so, good job defensively I guess.
February 11th, 2009 at 12:04 AM ^
It sucks to bring this up as it was a shame to see him go elsewhere, but having him would have made this team a hell of a lot better in my opinion. Someone brought this up tonight at the game tonight and I couldn't stop thinking how much he would be contributing right now.
February 11th, 2009 at 1:15 AM ^
Yeah, it really is a shame because Ekpe fills a huge hole on this team and would make everyone better.
He would be the post presence that they need, both offensively and defensively. Whereas Sims kind of hurts us playing the five defensively, Ekpe was a shot-blocking machine.
Sims moving back to the four would also allow us to take advantage of the mismatch he provides in our favor at the four due to his inside-outside game.
Shooters would have a little more space to operate, etc.
Oh well, it definitely sucks, but what can you do.
February 11th, 2009 at 1:08 AM ^
there are two reasons for our struggles:
1. we dont rebound
2. were centered around the 3 point shot, but we dont hit consistently.
There are games wer we go 18 for 34 from 3. But then there are games like tonight wer we shoot 3 for 20. And that statistic alone will decide the outcome of the game. We can compete with any team when we are knocking down the three. But when we are as cold as we wer tonight, we can also lose to any team
February 11th, 2009 at 1:23 AM ^
I think that playing Jevohn and AntWright more would help with both of those things because the constant slashing and cutting of Jevohn and Manny would create spacing for the shooters to operate, getting them more quality looks from deep.
Also, those two have a much greater tendency to crash the boards, and pick up cheap rebounds due to their general proximity to the basket. How many times have we seen those missed shots (for either team) that end up 8-16 feet away from end up being easy rebounds for our opponents because we play so far away from the basket and don't crash the boards.
February 11th, 2009 at 11:11 AM ^
What I saw last night was Jevohn gets chances, Jevohn screws them up, Jevohn gets benched.
February 11th, 2009 at 1:22 PM ^
Jevohn didn't screw anything up, he was in the game for 3 minutes. In those 3 minutes he made a nice pass for an assist and drove hard to the rim, drew contact, didn't get a call and missed the shot.
Meanwhile Novak and Douglass combined for 54 minutes of action, 1-8 from the field (all 3s), 5 fouls, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, and were both defensive liabilities.
You can't tell me Jevohn Shepherd or Anthony Wright would play worse than that with those kind of minutes.
Douglass and Novak are both solid players, but they are essentially clones of each other. They both do the same things, and so both of them don't need to be on the floor at the same time for most of the game. Especially when either CJ Lee, David Merritt or Kelvin Grady is running the point.
February 11th, 2009 at 2:58 PM ^
He missed getting a rebound he probably should have and he committed a somewhat stupid foul. So, balance those and the missed jumper against a nice assist and it seems to me he screwed up the chance he was given.
Look, all I'm saying is, Beilein has his reasons. He wants to win, too, and he's probably coached more games than some of us have watched. Jevohn didn't make a good case for more minutes last night.
February 11th, 2009 at 10:56 AM ^
shot selection is something that needs immediate attention. novak needs to stop fading away on his 3 pointers. when he shoots in rythym he hits his shots. but he constantly ends up taking these quick catch and release 3 pointers where he jumps, and lands 3 feet in back of, or to the side of, where he took off. A good, consistent, shooter lands precisely where he jumped from. You can not be consistent when your falling out of your shot.
Also manny needs to stop taking shots just for the sake of taking them. its one thing wen the shot clock is expiring, but he was clearly just taking contested shots b/c he was frustrated by the tight man defense. As far as im concerned, if manny went 1 for 3 from the field, with 7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 steal thats a solid game. if the shot isnt there, he doesnt need to take it. last night he was not seeing open looks, so he shood have just faced facts, excepted that he wasnt gonna score a lot, and looked to create for his team.
finally, sims is not a 3 point shooter. anyone who watched him play yesterday knows that the strength of sims game is in the mid to low post. hes got some great skill both facing up and with his back to the basket. but when he settles for the 3 point shot, all hes doing his hurting himself. yesterday was a prime example. he went 9 of 14 from the field. of course a great game by any standards. but remove his 3pt attempts, of which he went 0 for 3, and you have a spectacular 9 for 11 showing. it seems like every game sims goes 0 for 3 from 3pt range. its just not worth it.
February 11th, 2009 at 8:37 PM ^
That's not really a fair criticism of Sims. Two of his three attempts came in the final minute of the game, when we needed threes. Prior to that only one of 12 attempts for him was from beyond the arc.
February 11th, 2009 at 8:35 PM ^
IMO, our biggest problem - even more than our lack of size - is that we're very young. Early in the year we were having different guys step up and contribute, but now our freshmen have hit the wall and their production (aside from the odd big game like Stu's against UConn) is way down. Manny and DeShawn need help, but it's disappeared. Novak, Douglass and LLP are better shooters/scorers than what they've shown over the past three weeks. Eventually they will get out of this funk and when they do, our offense will look a lot better. As bad as we ran it yesterday, it still generated quite a few open threes. We just didn't knock them down.