What Florida's Defense tells us about Michigan's
As you already know, Michigan loses 4 defensive starters from their 2009 team. No big deal usually, but the coaches will also demote (Ezeh), move (Van Bergen), or demote AND move (Williams) at least 3 additional starters. We know that generally position switches are pretty bad news for defense and Michigan will have plenty of those among their expected starters. There are only 4 of 11 players returning to start at the position they started at last season (Martin, Roh, Mouton, and Kovacs). So, before we even get to the youth, depth, and talent issues with the defense, we have very little stability returning. Which gives us something in common with 2010 Alabama and 2007 Florida.
In previewing Alabama's D, Doc Sat calls attention to that Florida D...
in 2007, when the Gators had to replace nine starters from a nasty, veteran defense that finished in the top 10 nationally in every major category in 2006... The fledglings who replaced them that fall finished dead last in the SEC in pass defense and allowed at least 28 points six times
Even the most talented teams (and Florida's WAS extremely so, as "That same group went on to form the backbone of the Gator teams that ran up a 26-2 record with another BCS championship over the last two years") can't handle new starters...even with coaching stability and "another year in the system".
So while Michigan isn't facing quite the same attrition (we weren't exactly starting with a top 10 D anyway) we also don't have the same level of talent. IMO, Doc Sat's conclusion about Alabama applies to Michigan as well...
This edition of the defense may turn out to be very good in the long run, but if it has to be as good as the 2009 edition... you may as well be asking them to walk on water.
With all the inexperience, we Michigan fans shouldn't get our hopes up about the 2010 defense, but Florida tells us that having talent and a young starting lineup can yield some nice long-term results.
August 28th, 2010 at 7:52 PM ^
I don't think anyone doubts your last point, but the key thing is if Rich Rod will be around to reap the benefits (I sure hope so). Not to mention the growing pains will SUCK.
August 28th, 2010 at 8:19 PM ^
What's this "will SUCK" part? The growing pains have been awful for the last two years.
August 28th, 2010 at 8:21 PM ^
Yeah, I guess a better way to say it is the promise of a good secondary in a couple years won't help the pain now.
August 28th, 2010 at 8:02 PM ^
hyped recruits who could be experienced (if not returning) starters in 2012
DL Talent: J.Black/R.Ash/W.Campbell/C.Roh
DB Talent: C.Christian/C.Gordon/M.Robinson/C.Johnson
LB Talent: Furman/Demens
August 28th, 2010 at 8:50 PM ^
who looks at this defense objectively is expecting a lot. "Getting hopes up" = hoping for a middle of the road Big Ten defense. Though you may be right. There may be some people thinking this D is capabable of more. I suppose it's not impossible, but yeah, certainly not likely.
Middle of the road would be substantial improvement over last year. I'd be happy with that. It would likely mean a win total and a bowl most Michigan fans could live with coming off of 2008 and 2009.
This D will give up some yardage, but if they can be better in a few areas, it will make a huge difference.
- Creating many more turnovers than the paltry few they did last year
- Getting more 3 and outs
- Doing better in the red zone on D. We were tied for 99th out of 120 teams last years. 43 drives past our 20. 38 scores. 88% clip (TD given up 56% of the time). That's bend and break.
August 28th, 2010 at 10:46 PM ^
If they give up 30...but the Tate/Denard fireworks show blows it up for 40 we still win.
August 28th, 2010 at 10:48 PM ^
Our defense, even with the glaring inexperience in the secondary, will be improved this year. And our offense will be greatly improved. I think we can expect good things this year without being accused of completely deluding ourselves.
August 29th, 2010 at 11:42 AM ^
But it seems delusional to anticipate improvement on D.
August 29th, 2010 at 7:35 AM ^
Yeah, I think we will need to outscore most teams this year. What will mean death is if our offense stalls, takes a half off, or can't stay on the field, then it will be tough to rely on the D to keep M in ball games. Also think if M scores too quickly, the other teams hold on to the ball, then M's offense stalls, then the D will wear out being on the field too much during a game. All of that we saw last year. Will be happy to see less of that this year, which I think will be the case. Or has 3 years of Barwis' conditioning program kicked in??