MrVociferous

July 1st, 2008 at 10:24 AM ^

Perhaps you've forgotten a couple of guys by the name of Mateen Cleaves, Rodney White, and Darko.  Joe D has only gotten one starter (Tayshaun) in 10-11 drafts and a bunch of marginal bench players.  He's not exactly "stealing" here is he...

MRG

July 1st, 2008 at 11:14 AM ^

Darko, Rodney White and Mateen sucked.  Amir, Afflalo, Tay, Stuckey, Maxiell, Memo and to a lesser extent Delfino were good value at where they were picked.  If you're getting starters or rotation guys at the end of the first and through the second, you're doing well.

For everyone that was pining for CDR at #32 (like me), this is why he wasn't selected:

http://info.detnews.com/redesign/blogs/pistonsblog/index.cfm?blogid=1561

Hans

July 1st, 2008 at 11:37 AM ^

...Joe's drafting acumen than on the fact that the media has anointed him the bargain-hunter of the NBA no matter how he drafts. So we're sort of on the same page, except I don't think Joe has drafted poorly of late considering his starting position.

big gay heart

July 1st, 2008 at 11:41 AM ^

First, Joe Dumars became the Pistons President of Basketball Operations prior to 2000-2001 Season, so he isn't "10 or 11" years in.

Second, Yes, Joe has made some bad decisions in the draft. But he has also made some very good ones. Let's look at his draft record:

(1) In 2000, the Pistons select selected guard Mateen Cleaves (14th overall pick) and forward Brian Cardinal (44th overall pick). Cardinal becomes a serviceable NBA backup.

(2) In 2001, the Pistons draft Rodney White who is a bust. With the 38th pick, however, the Pistons select Mehmet Okur. He's an alright player.

(3) In 2002, the Pistons draft Tayshaun Prince with the 22nd pick. That turned out alright.

(4) In 2003, the Pistons draft Darko (obvious bust), Carlos Delfino (25th overall pick) and center Andreas Glyniadakis (58th overall pick). Delfino is a solid backup and Glyniadakis never plays in North America.

(5) In 2004 the Pistons only have one pick - #54 - and it's Ricky Paulding.

(6) In 2005, the Pistons elected forwards Jason Maxiell (26th overall pick) and Amir Johnson (56th overall pick) and guard Alex Acker (60th overall pick). Jason Maxiell is an NBA starter/6th man and Amir Johnson is developing nicely.

(7) In 2006, Pistons have the 60th pick and they select Will Blalock.

(8) In 2007,the Pistons selected guards Rodney Stuckey (15th overall pick), Arron Afflalo (27th overall pick) and Sammy Mejia (57th overall pick).

(9) In 2008, the Pistons select Walter Sharpe (32 overall pick), Trent Plaisted (46th overall pick) and Deron Washington (59 overall pick).

Adjectively, you can evaluate 8 years of picks in a limited sense.

The trends seem to lean towards the fact that Joe Dumars is a not very good at making lotter (1-14) picks. He has picked 4 players in the lottery: Cleaves, Milicic, White, and Stuckey. With Stuckey being the only player who has the current potential to be a long-term NBA starter, let's put Joe's success rate at right around 25% when it comes to making lottery draft picks.

If we then look at non-lottery first round picks, the story changes dramatically. Joe Dumars has selected four non-lottery/late first round picks: Prince, Delfino, Maxiell, and Afflalo. All appear to be either perennial starters (Prince, possibly Maxiell) or 6th/7th man type players. As such, Joe D has very clearly surpassed the NBA "average" success rate; let's give him a 100% success rate for these picks.

Moving on to second round picks, it becomes more difficult to judge. Picks at 50 or higher are crapshoots. Yes, you can find a very good player in these later stages, but it's hit or miss - and mostly, teams miss. However, examining Joe's success rate, he has a relatively strong track record. Consider that he drafted one top-50 NBA player (Okur), one guy who has been lauded for his potential (Johnson), one long-term NBA player (Cardinal), and three players who have/will have the chance to make NBA rosters for at least several years (Acker, Blalock, Meija). So, out of 8 second round picks (all being 38th or later), Joe has drafted exactly two players who were not NBA material (Glyniadakis and Paulding).

I think the bottom line is that Dumars is great at finding players with "hidden" potential and is adverse to taking the "proven" commodity. Such philosophy has been very effective in the late first round and early second round, but is clearly deficient in the lottery. It is, then, a mistake, to argue that Dumars is a poor evaluator of talent. In many ways, he is the opposite; he finds talent where others cannot.

Obviously, the Darko, Mateen, and White guffaws are notable. There is no getting around that. But the selections of Prince, Okur, Maxiell, and Stuckey have been very productive picks.

One final note on CDR: It appears he was completely unwilling to play for the Pistons, going so far as to refuse a workout request. As many of you know, he is a Detroit native. So, can you blame Dumars for passing him over? I can't.

 

 

big gay heart

July 1st, 2008 at 12:03 PM ^

Well, that would certainly make sense, as Dumars was a little-known prospect from McNeese State and he played on a great team composed similiar type guys, including Rodman [SE Oklahoma State], V. Johnson [Baylor], Mahorn [Hampton], and Laimbeer [65th overall pick].