Team Stats vs. Order of Finish
After someone linked to the bigten.org team stas from the 2009 football season, I got the idea to try to correlate the final standings to the teams ranks in each category. All I did was copy the final standings into one column, teams ranks in each category in the other, and let excel calculate the correlation with the "correl" function. So basically, the closer the value is to 1, the closer that stat is in predicting your finish in the final standings.
| Rush Defense | 0.908295 |
| Scoring Defense | 0.908295 |
| Opp 1st Downs | 0.876184 |
| Opp 3rd Down% | 0.867009 |
| Pass Defense Efficiency | 0.683515 |
| Time of Possession | 0.67434 |
| Red Zone Score% | 0.591768 |
| Turnover Margin | 0.532407 |
| Sacks Against | 0.469845 |
| Scoring Offense | 0.458735 |
| Pass Defense | 0.453317 |
| Red Zone Def% | 0.44956 |
| Sacks By | 0.428576 |
| Pass Efficiency | 0.408274 |
| First Downs | 0.394512 |
| Opp Penalty Yardage | 0.333341 |
| Opp 4th Down Conversions | 0.306311 |
| Rush Offense | 0.296227 |
| Total Offense | 0.266066 |
| Penalty Yardage | 0.197256 |
| 3rd Down Conversions | 0.165145 |
| 4th Down Conversions | 0.142859 |
| Punt Returns | -0.00917 |
| Pass Offense | -0.21207 |
| Kickoff Returns | -0.25611 |
| Punting | -0.42204 |
I don't really like how this looks for UM going into next year. The stats that best correlate with final standings are certainly not our perceived strengths. I didn't take the time to go back to previous years to get a better sample size, so it could just be a fluke driven by Iowa and Ohio State's success in 2009 and the philosophy they used to get there. Either way, I thought it was interesting.
This explains why Michigan was 5-7 last year. Nothing more, nothing less.
Do the same for the Big 12 and then we'll talk.
Of every game ever played and the statistics were exactly the same..........
Surprise, surprise. Defense rules the day. Explains why Nebraska has been able to turn it around so quickly under the Pelini brothers. Ditto with Alabama. Just pray to God that Michigan's D is competent this year and becomes good in 2011; all eyes on Greg Robinson now.