Score prediction for Saturday?

To me, it seems like MSU clearly has the better defense, and also clearly has the better special teams (both in the kicking game - MSU's PK hasn't missed this year and has a couple 50+ kicks and in the return game).  Michigan has the best individual talent on the field in Denard (though we still haven't seen him against a real defense, not that State's is all world), however, I think the offenses are pretty even overall.  The game is in Ann Arbor, so the home field advantage is to UM.  

I say MSU wins 38-28.  What say all of you?