Rushing Analysis 2022

Going into Football Armageddon this year, I expect the rushing game to be a very important factor in who wins. It is an outsized building block of Harbaugh's strategy overall, and if we are to win, we will need to lean into that. Given that, I did a bit of an analysis through the lens of how each rushing offense and defense did compared to the rest of their schedule.

First of all, here is how Michigan did versus its schedule. Numbers below are relative to that team's average for the season.

And in chart form:

Interesting numbers, for sure. On offense, we did well against Iowa, Penn State, and Rutgers, which all have solid run defenses. We held serve against Michigan State and Illinois as well, of similar defensive caliber. I admit I have not watched much OSU this year, but they seem to be near the bottom of that range of teams in this regard. The other thing that really jumps out is how well Indiana did against us, but as we know, they sold out to the point they did not even play pass defense, and that did not work out great for them. As for defense, we held every team we faced below its season average for yards per game except...Colorado State. Once we hit conference play, only Maryland and Illinois got within 50 yards. As for efficiency, the team that bested their season average YPC was Penn State. Not sure how much to make of the defensive numbers, but we seem really solid here.

On the flip side, of course, we have an Ohio school:

And in chart form:

Since midseason, it looks like they have really been struggling with rushing offense (and I believe that coincides with injury timelines). Will they be healthy? Will it make a difference? It's hardly the strength of the offense. But something tells me there is going to be one yard here or there that matters a lot, and that is a scenario where they struggle. How will they be able to defend us? It's hard to tell from these numbers, but they certainly do not make rushing defense look like a strength of the team either. They did okay versus Penn State and Maryland, but they really have not played anyone near our caliber.

Finally, I did a bit of parsing of the above numbers to put together a probability chart for rushing yardage. The most likely outcome seems to be in the area of 225 yards for us and 150 for them. That said, their probability tail is nonzero when it crosses the axis, so...

In the above chart, the series mean the following:

• O Probability (OSU): When we are on offense, compare our relative offense to their absolute defense (50% confidence interval: 184-236 yards at 4.6-5.6 ypc)
• O Probability (UM): When we are on offense, compare our absolute offense to their relative defense (50% confidence interval: 173-251 yards at 4.5-5.6 ypc)
• D Probability (OSU): When we are on defense, compare their absolute offense to our relative defense (50% confidence interval: 123-177 yards at 4.1-5.6 ypc)
• D Probability (UM): When we are on defense, compare their relative offense to our absolute defense (50% confidence interval: 103-193 yards at 4.1-6.1 ypc)

Their offense has a lot more volatility in relative performance, and our defense has less. As mentioned above, so much of this matchup hinges on injuries whose status is unknown, but based on the season so far and this very flawed lens, it looks like we should have a solid 75-80 yard advantage on the ground. The key will then be, do we keep their defense on the field for long stretches and pay off those drives? Do we boot their offense from the field at least once or twice if/when their explosive passing game does not connect, and they need some tough yards?