The never too early ESPN Bracketology
Well it's Tuesday, so that means ESPN came out with a new bracketology.
Duke, Kansas, Syracuse, and Michigan get the 1 seeds. It has Michigan playing the winner of Norfolk State and Southern U and then playing the winner of Baylor/Pitt.
Louirville is the #2, Butler #3, and Creighton #4. I'd love to have that 3 and 4 in my side of the bracket.
Big Ten
Indiana, 2 seed
Minnesota, 3 seed
Ohio, 4 seed
Michigan St, 4 seed
Wisconsin, 7 seed
Illinois, 11 seed
January 22nd, 2013 at 3:58 PM ^
The algorithm at TeamRankings.com has the following teams as having a greater than 50% chance at being a Top 4 seed. I included their relative projected chances at a #1 seed as well, using the same model.
| Team | #1 Seed | Top 4 Seed |
| Florida | 64% | 99% |
| Duke | 56% | 98% |
| Kansas | 51% | 97% |
| Arizona | 49% | 97% |
| Syracuse | 44% | 97% |
| Louisville | 36% | 96% |
| Indiana | 40% | 94% |
| Michigan | 25% | 88% |
| Gonzaga | 7% | 88% |
| Miami (FL) | 7% | 66% |
| Minnesota | 5% | 64% |
| VCU | 1% | 54% |
| New Mexico | 4% | 53% |
I would agree with their assessment of Michigan's current chances of being a Top 4 with this much of the season (and by extension, the conference schedule) left. The 25% projection for a #1 seed has to be more about the number of games left than anything else (combined probabilities of independent events and all that), but it is fairly reasonable to assume, I would think, that continued Minnesota-like peformances cause this projection to inch upward. I really like where we sit when it comes to likely being a #1 seed right now.