Little Focus on WRs in '09
The attention so far this year has been on Minor-Rage and Tate on offense and 3-4, 4-3, or 3-3-5 with "Spinners" and "Please God, find us a Free Safety" on defense. I'm surprised there has been so little talk about our WRs and how improved the position will be given the ability to spread the ball with mismatches.
I think the WR play this year is going to be key to our entire season. With Robinson, and possibly Gallon, used as a second slot (after defenses only dealing with Odoms last year), it will open up lanes for our outside receivers as defenses have to adjust to two true slots on the field at once. Matthews should be an Avant-esque possession receiver (much like he was as a sophomore) and get the tough yards over the middle while an "experienced" Stonum and healthy Hemingway can produce on the outside, and hopefully Roundtree is as good as Spring Ball suggested... his presence as an outside and/or slot can only create more headaches. Add Minor and Shaw's receptions out of the backfield and you can imagine the defensive schemes that will need to be created just for the UM game.
Last year there was only Matthews, one slot, a freshman TE (essentially used in RR's system for the first time) and a true freshman Stonum. We have twice the weapons and a much more accurate qb. Time to introduce the country to the "passing-spread" offense.
And with Minor running over people to set up the pass... we should shock many people with our offensive production. If only we could get that Free Safety and find a new name for the "Spinner"...
April 21st, 2009 at 10:52 AM ^
I think it's because until we see the ball thrown over the top successfully in a real game most of us are holding back.
I think Je'ron Stokes makes a very positive impact right away. Just a feeling.
April 21st, 2009 at 11:17 AM ^
Yeah, I agree with that. I think Stokes will have an immediate impact. This is a guy that is 6'1" with great speed and amazing athletic ability. With offers from Florida, Oklahomo, Georgia, etc....
April 21st, 2009 at 11:06 AM ^
People have said this before, but the fact is that our WRs, with the exception of Matthews, are entirely unproven/unreliable. Its easy to get excited about ther potential (a la stonum), but until we see them perform on the field, it really is just potential. If you go down the list, I dont know that we have that much to get excited about YET.
Slot:
Odoms looked great at times, but he had less than stellar hands in 08.
Terrence Robinson hasnt played in game yet.
Roy Roundtree, althou impressive in the spring game, was playing against the michigan 12th string defense.
Gallon has had some nice fluff said about him thus far, but hes still a true freshman.
WR Z:
Stonum was one of the biggest non-qb disappointments on the team last yr. hopefully hell live up to his initial hype this yr.
Savoy is unfortunately not our savior
JeRon Stokes is a true freshman
WR X:
Matthews is a good hands, big bodied reciever. But hes also very slow, and not really a #1 type.
Hemingway is back and look for him to be our guy.
TE/Big WR:
Koger had a solid yr and hopefully can continue to develop
Martell Webb has gotten some attention over the spring and could contribute some.
Overall there is potential, like I said, but outside of Matthews, Koger, and possibly Hemmingway Im not sure who on that list we can really feel confident about. In order for this to be a successful WR core, someone (be it Hemmingway, Stonum, Stokes, or other) needs to establish themselves as a legit deep threat so that we can open the field for our speedsters. Moreover, said speedsters need to consistently catch the ball cleanly and consistently.
April 21st, 2009 at 11:56 AM ^
But I do believe it is highly unfair to assess the receivers when there was no real aerial assualt to speak of last year. However, I do share your reservations, just not your analysis. It is virtually impossible to say that Stonum was a disappointment when he was a freshmen playing with a walkon and a QB that has mechanics issues, confidence issues, accuracy issues and would be better suited for an entirely different offense. None of our receivers can really be truly critiqued based on their performances last year. The offense was too unreliable to give them the chance to showcase their talents.
Well, with that said, here are a couple of my assumptions for the season.
Koger should be a weapon this year. I heard they are using formations with bringing him out of the backfield. If Tate or Denard, or whomever Michigan lines up under center can throw over the middle with some accuracy, Koger can be a star.
Matthews, should get good looks with a running game and improved offensive line this should help him see single coverage. Same can be said about Stonum, or Stokes (if he cracks the line up) Hemminway, Robinson and whomever else that plays outside receiver.
Now, I don't know who is going to be playing slot, but I assume that Shaw and Odoms may get a lot of time here if we have a (knocks on wood) healthy Carlos Brown. It frees up Shaw to be utilized at slot. That is a dangerous combo, Odoms and Shaw. Hands must be reliable. Hopefully, they will. Roundtree has to be thrown in the mix somewhere in here too.
To be truthful, there are a lot of question marks left to be resolved. But I am optimistic about our offense this year. My huge concerns comes from the defensive side of the ball.
April 21st, 2009 at 12:01 PM ^
I wasnt basing my analysis on stonums, or anyone elses, numbers. If you watched stonum play, he wasnt getting seperation on his routes, he wasnt able to get off jams, he failed pretty miserably at blocking, and he dropped a lot of catchable balls. None of those can really be attributed to the poor QB play. Granted he might have done better with more opportunity and more balls well-thrown his way, but at the very least u cannot deny that he is at least unproven, and in my opinion disappointing thus far
April 21st, 2009 at 12:21 PM ^
But consider this. He is/was a freshman that would have seen the field sparingly at best if AA or MM would have returned. And he is playing an entirely different system than what he agreed to when he committed. I think Stonum was one of those kids that had to buy in. *shrugs* I don't know, you may be right. I just think given the fact that he was a true freshman playing every down as an outside receiver gives him at least one mulligan especially with weak qb play.
The formation when they use the tight end is called Trojan.
April 21st, 2009 at 11:35 AM ^
All things considered, Odoms looked awesome last year. If Threet could have given him the ball in stride, he would have broken some serious yardage on screens. He was excellent on the wheel routes and managed to get open downfield. Yes, he dropped some balls, but he was a true freshman playing in the cold for the first time. It was inevitable. I'm excited to see what he can do this year — let alone for the next two years after that.
April 21st, 2009 at 11:41 AM ^
...is improved. The TEs are monsters as well. However, the way this offense is set up this year with personnel, it makes no sense to go away from the team's strength at RB. The run can set up the pass (or, pass to spread the field, I suppose). However, I have a strong feeling that the running backs, behind that now-strong offensive line, will be tough to stop. If that's the case, it's better for Michigan this year to control the clock, end the 35% 3 and out percentage from last year, and sustain some long drives.
I think the team's focus will be on running. Minor, Cox and Grady with the power, C. Brown and V. Smith with the speed, along with mixing in D-Rob, Feagin and others with direct snaps, et al. And don't forget Tate with the zone read.
Keeping the ball on the ground will not only protect Tate, it will also protect our razor-thin defensive depth, at least until the incoming freshmen (JT, Roh, Bell, Gordon, and even Emilien, Big Will and Hawthorne who are already there) are used to the game experience.
Michigan's rushing totals in 2008 were respectable. In 2009 they should improve dramatically with the talent back there and the blocking up front. I don't see why the WRs would be the key for the season, unless they can't block anyone. They should only be critical when teams overplay the run. But they shouldn't be the focus.
April 21st, 2009 at 11:59 AM ^
I'd say the wide receivers are the second-least important position group on the field this year, sitting only ahead of the tight ends.
We will run run run the ball, and while Tate will be a better passer than Threet, we're not going to suddenly become Texas Tech. Minor and Brown, among others, should be able to run all day.
April 21st, 2009 at 12:08 PM ^
...to the extent that the tight ends will be important (a) in the blocking game for the RBs (especially in short yardage; (b) as a possible lead blocker for slot passes, and (c) as Tate's safety blanket. Other than that, I agree with your assessment.
I wasn't saying that the tight ends are useless. I'm saying good tight end play this year will be less important than any other position group (in my opinion).
In other words, at the end of a game, if the only negative thing I can say is "Boy, our tight ends sucked today" then it probably wasn't a horrible day. But if I say that about the quarterbacks or offensive line or safeties, etc., then that's probably bad news.
But if they can utilize the tight ends they will become an X factor. Just their motioning will take a LB or pull a safety down because the threat is there. And I don't know about you but I'd take my chances with Koger outmuscling a safety or out running a LB.
Rodriguez doesn't motion the tight ends very much at all.
Early word is that he is starting to use them in motion coming out of the backfield. If he adds this wrinkle to the offense it opens up the offense in a whole new way.
...with you. + 5.
April 21st, 2009 at 11:56 AM ^
RR didn't run a four WR set very often in the spring game. Usually it was a 3 WR set with a TE, IIRC.
I agree that another effective slot receiver will open up the defense, but I think RR may prefer to keep a TE in the game and force 7 man fronts with either a safety or LB covering Odoms.
Bringing in T. Robinson would likely bring a nickelback in for the defense. Then the defense would likely cover the slots with a nickel and a safety, which is less favorable than a LB/S and a TE that can catch or block. Just my opinion.
Michigan has some of the Big 10's best receivers.
I was disappointed last year, but the QB play didn't help Wolverine receivers shine very much.
Michigan now adds two very mobile and very accurate throwers into the mix in Forcier and Denard Robinson at QB.
Sure, they're freshman and they'll screw up, throw dumb INTs and commit some major mental mistakes this fall. But they'll also cause opponent DEs and LBs to hesitate about their assignment. This is going to create some "interesting" seams for the speed merchant receivers like Odoms, TRob, Gallon, RB VSmith, and the fly route running WRs Hemingway and Mathews.
What this will then do for Minor and the running game will also be "very interesting" to observe as well.
I like to watch the 2004 NW-OSU game (it's on youtube) as Basanez completely shredded OSU's defense. The WRs were open on almost every single play because OSU LBs simply could not afford to ignore Basanez as a run threat. So it will be with a Forcier and/or a Robinson under center for UM. Last fall, DEs and LBs could go full throttle in either rush or max pass protect with little or no consequence as to Threet/Sheridan's run threat.
That won't happen in 2009.
Sometimes, you just need to add a little more sugar and that lemonade tastes pretty damn good.
They didn't fear their passing ability. The offense was hideous. Even when receivers were open, the qb's were throwing the balls to tacopants or the defender.
I predict UofM will be better this year just based on the simple fact it will take a lot of hard work for them to be as bad as they were last year.
Excellent point. I've oftentimes wondered just how many yards and potential TDs the QBs left on the field last year in overthrown/underthrown passes. I usually end up whimpering and crying softly.
Sorry, but I'm gonna have to call you out for suggesting that DRob is "very accurate." As is well documented on this message board, he completed right around 50% of his passes in high school. Even if I give him every benefit of the doubt (i.e. "it's just high school"/"his receivers sucked"/"the scheme sucked"), I still don't see how he could be termed "very accurate." Perhaps "kind of accurate, and hopefully more accurate than Sheridan" would be more appropriate.