The Lead Podcast: Friday's Episode - Jordan Poole
One of my daily listens and favorite podcasts is "The Lead", it is from The Athletic but does not require a subscription. Today's episode focuses on Jordan Poole.
‘Poole Party’: The Unlikely Rise Of The Warriors’ Newest Star
When he was drafted late in the first round of the 2019 NBA Draft, some experts called Jordan Poole — the Golden State Warriors’ selection — the worst pick of the draft. Three years later, Poole has emerged as a bona fide star, and provided the already talent-rich Warriors with another potent offensive threat. The Athletic’s Sam Amick recently spoke with Poole about his rise to stardom, and Sam joins us to talk about Poole’s remarkable ascent, and what lies ahead for the Warriors in this year’s NBA Playoffs.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/poole-party-the-unlikely-rise-of-the-warriors-newest-star/id1478448344?i=1000561013330
Check it out.
so here i am, not an NBA fan..... I checked the Heat vs 76ers box score to see Duncan Robinson logged 4 minutes of playing time, one attempt and zero points...
Wasn't he lighting it up earlier in the year, maybe even starting?? WTF?
He has struggled all year. But yes, he's gone from a starter, getting around 30 minutes a night to now DNP Coaches Decision on most nights. His 4 minutes were "mop up" minutes last night in fact.
It's been a subject of medium "controversy" mostly among the Venn Diagram of Michigan Fans and NBA/Heat fans - which admittedly is a small subsect of the basketball "world".
The long and short is he's always been a deficit on defense. Teams, particularly in the playoffs, "hunt" for their opponents worst defender and look to get the worst defender on the primary scoring option to maximize the potential to score each time down the court. Sometimes, if you're Ja Morant or James Harden, and you can score in buckets (maybe not Harden anymore) then a team is willing to let your defensive weaknesses exist in exchange for what you bring to the table offensively.
When you're Duncan Robinson and your 3 point shot just hasn't been falling, then you don't get that levity. So, his shot hasn't been falling. His defense is what it is. And his minutes decreased to the point where he was benched. Then Olidipo came back toward the end of the year, his minutes got even less. To the point now where he's not really even getting on the court.
It's not a decision that has been without critics. A few nights ago the Heat got blown out. They couldn't hit a shot, and could have really used someone on the perimeter to stretch out the Sixers defense. Yet, there sat Duncan on the bench. It's really been one of the first vocal calls for him. Especially because guys like Max Strus (his replacement) aren't exactly world beaters, although he's been pretty good. Coach Spo is still widely regarded as one of the game's best, so he's going to get a lot of latitude.
But Duncan just signed a 20m deal. Come the off season the Heat are going to need to figure out how to make either him, that or a deal work, because you can't have a guy making that much on your bench.
That said, there's a bit of recent history for the Heat with a situation like this. Tyler Herro struggled mightily last year. Maybe not to the point of DNPCD but he was out of favor and some were wondering if his days in the league were numbered. The Heat/Spo gave him time. He's stormed back this year, averaging over 20/ppg and was named 6th Man of the Year. So, maybe that's the blueprint for Duncan.
Personally, I love the guy. I love everything about his story. I root for him hard, and really hope he gets it figured out. If not, then I'm glad he got that big contract last summer first.
For the record, JMo:
Duncan Robinson signed a 5 year / $90,000,000 contract with the Miami Heat, including $80,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $18,000,000. In 2022-23, Robinson will earn a base salary of $16,902,000, while carrying a cap hit of $16,902,000 and a dead cap value of $16,902,000.
Yeah, I was rounding. What's a couple mil between friends afterall? Thanks for looking up the exacts.
Duncan 18m a year guy.
Thanks, that makes sense. I really haven't paid much attention other than noticing the headlines of him being the fastest player in NBA history to reach 700 3pt shots.
I said this in another thread but "struggled" is relative. He still shot 37% from 3 this season. It just seemed like a massive decline from the 40% he was at last season. The Heat are a poor/reluctant 3 point shooting team in general, aside from Robinson and Strus, therefore Robinson has been forced into taking absolutely ridiculous 3s now that everyone knows what he is capable of. If Robinson were to end up on another team with any complimentary 3 point shooting (Clippers, or Warriors, for example) he would once again be deadly.
I have followed Robinson's NBA career since it began and one of the things they emphasized early on was his learning how to shoot on the move rather than simply standing still. Now he must learn how to shoot on the move with a defender inside of his jersey. I think he can do it but I also think that the Heat, as currently constructed, are not the best fit for him as he simply has too much burden to shoot well every night on his shoulders. If he and Strus could play together that would alleviate things a bit but as they are both less than stellar defenders it has not been an option.
You're definitely not wrong. What I laid out above, even lengthy for a message board, is still pretty simple and reductive. It's a really complicated situation.
First, I think you're absolutely right that there SHOULDNT be much of a difference between 37% and 40% from three. But for Duncan, and largely because of what you mentioned - how they use him, there seems to be. I think there's a psychological component in there too.
Because he only really shoots the three, his shooting is amplified. Now, if I'm a coach, I may make the argument that he's a one-dimensional player, and all the more reason to bench him. But I'm not, and I don't think he is. Again, their system basically requires him to do that. If you listened to him in interviews talk about it, basically the only want him shooting 3s. And they kinda want him shooting a lot.
Which leads me to the next part, because he shoots so many, those nights when he goes 2 for 7 from three against the Knicks, or 2 of 9 against Detroit, or even 4 for 11. Those misses just "feel" amplified.
And that's the operative word, feel. It feels like he's shooting a lot. And it feels like he's missing a lot. When in actuality he's shooting a lot and missing a reasonable amount for the difficulty of the shot he takes.
Additionally, I think there's still some confirmation bias out there. He was never supposed to be here. So when Cinderella's carriage turns back into a pumpkin, people are quick to say "see, i knew it was too good to be true!" and they're also very quick to count other people's money, which makes that 18m/yr contract he signed a bit of an albatross.
The interesting thing is, since the all-star break, he's actually shooting right at 40%. It just "felt" like a slump. And it wasn't helped by the quick hook he gets when he's "off" and the reinsertion of Olidipo into the lineup.
All solid points. It seems to be an embarrassment of riches type of problem. The Heat are crazy deep especially once Oladipo, and his excellent defense, came back. Defense trumps offense in the playoffs so in some ways it makes sense that Robinson is playing behind guys like Oladipo and Caleb Martin. I wonder what happens if the Bucks beat the Celtics in their series. The Bucks love to let their opposition shoot threes in order to protect the paint. Maybe Robinson is dusted off and given some minutes to punish them. He can certainly hang with limited offensive player like Wes Matthews or Grayson Allen on defense. The strangest part of his "benching" is that it effectively came on the heels of his absolute evisceration of the Hawks in game one of their series. Guy shoots 8/9 from 3 in a massacre and is relegated to spot duty.
Confidence. Kinda like playing golf. When you're playing well you believe every shot is going to be a good one-and it generally is. But if you start doubting yourself things can go to hell in a hand-basket very quickly. That, in a nutshell, is the good and bad of being "just a shooter". Right now-and for some time, Duncan is/has been in a very bad frame of mind...and this is the playoffs-you don't get to "work through this" in real time.
Jordan is a helluva talent-so glad he is in a very good place.
like being a shortstop, goalie or lion tamer...... project confidence, even if you're faking it
If someone actually called him the worst pick of the draft that tells you all you need to know to stop listening to draft experts. Some of them are okay but the majority are just taking up oxygen.
Jordan Poole the best player from UM in the NBA for sure.
Sidebar: who are your top 5 NBA players from UM of all time?
mine are as follows:
C Webb
Glen Rice
Cazzie
Jamal Crawford
Juwan Howard
In 20 years, we'll be calling him the GOAT.
Poole was the best shooter in his high school class .6'5 great handle .quick ,aggressive,not scared of the moment
I always though he would be a 15-2-2 4th option type NBA player -- looks like hes gonna be a 25-7-4 guy
His passing is much better than i thought,hes probably the best pure passer in the NBA today --if he was a true PG he could avg 20 and 12 ast