Big Ten B-Ball Craziness
So with recent wins by Northwestern and Minnesota, there is the possibility that FIVE teams in the Big Ten will finish 9-9 in the conference. Each of these five teams has one game left in regular conference play. This will happen if:
- Michigan beats Minnesota
- Northwestern beats OSU
- Indiana beats Wisconsin
Obviously, the last one (Indiana over Wisconsin) is really unlikely to happen. But still, we could easily have Michigan, Minnesota, OSU and Northwestern all at 9-9. I know this affects seedings for the Big Ten Tournament, but can anyone hazard a guess at what the implications are for the NCAA tourney?
The good thing is that, if this scenario (four teams at 9-9) occurs, Michigan will have a head-to-head advantage over Northwestern and Minnesota (but not OSU). The bad thing is that, even if this happens, Michigan will still place 7th in the conference, not counting the Big Ten Tournament of course.
Another scenario, which I think is more possible is:
What if:
Illinois wins tomorrow at Penn State.
Michigan wins Saturday at Minnesota.
Iowa wins Saturday at home vs Penn State.
Northwestern wins Sunday at Ohio State.
Then there would be a five way tie for fifth place. Wisconsin would finish fourth with their win vs Indiana, but Michigan would actually win the tie-breaker with the other four teams and get the five seed. The tie-breaker is total record against the other four teams.
Here are the records for the five teams against each other.
#5. Michigan: 5-3
#6. Ohio State: 4-3 (Only played PSU once)
#7. Penn State: 3-3 (Played OSU and NW once)
#8. Northwestern: 3-4 (Only placed PSU once)
#9. Minnesota: 3-5
Thus, Michigan would receive a first round bye and have Wisconsin in the second round. Although that game would probably be tougher than a first round game vs Northwestern, Iowa, or Indiana, getting a bye and having the #5 seed could be enough to get into the tournament, even with only 19 wins.
Also, if Indiana beats Wisconsin and the rest above remains the same, then there would be a six team tie for fourth. Wisconsin has the best record against the other five, so they would still be fourth, but the other five's results against Wisconsin alter the order above. It gets crazy as Michigan, Ohio State and Minnesota would all have the same record, followed by Northwestern and then Penn State. I don't know what the tie-breaker would be for the three that are tied, but Michigan would be somewhere between a 5 and 7 seed in this case.
UPDATE: In case of a six team tie, Wisconsin would still be the #4 seed. What happens with Minnesota, Michigan and Ohio State. All will have a .500 winning percentage. Does it go to best record against MSU or best combined record for each team against the other two teams? None of the three beat MSU so I guess it would go to the next best team (Illinois). Michigan and Minnesota are both 1-1 against Illinois and Ohio State is 0-2, which would make them the 7th seed. For the Purdue comparison, Michigan is 1-1 and Minnesota is 0-1. Michigan would be the 5 seed and Minnesota would then be the 6. Northwestern would be 8 and Penn State would be 9.
Very interesting. A lot of stuff is going to happen between now and Sunday. I am mostly glad b/c I was thinking we had to root for OSU to beat NW to avoid a huge 3-5 way tie at 9-9 which I didn't anticipate we would do well with. I think it is in our best interest to be better than 8th in the conference to avoid a second round matchup w/ MSU. My choice would be the 7th seed against Iowa with a second round matchup against Illinois.
We can solidly cheer against Penn State, against the Suckeyes, and most importantly take care of number one on Sat. against Minny. Go Blue!!
My head nearly Asplode following that last bit, but I guess that's why they have 10+ tie-breakers in place.
Michigan beats Minnesota
Ohio State beats Northwestern
Michigan State beats Purdue
Penn State beats Iowa
Wisconsin beats Indiana
Here, Penn State would win the three way tiebreaker with Illinois and Purdue and actually get the #2 seed. Illinois and Purdue would be 3 and 4 (don't know which, doesn't matter for Michigan), Wisconsin and Ohio State would be 5 and 6 (again don't know which, doesn't matter) and Michigan would be the 7 seed. I think this scenario would give us the best chance of reaching the semi-finals, with games against Iowa and Penn State.
Unf-ingreal. Although to be fair, I honestly don't see too much difference from 2-9, as it's pretty clear MSU is the only elite team. This is the craziest B10 year I can remember in some time, that's for sure.
I hope your scenario is spot on...Iowa/PSU/Illinois would be a fantastic scenario for a B10 tourney run!
the rest of the scenario relies on the favorite winning, and three of those teams are at home. Penn State is the only one that is away, though as we saw Iowa is a tough place to win at.