Basketball vs Football Recruiting Approach
Happy Friday!
Is it just me, or does it feel like Juwan Howard is adapting to the current recruiting/transfer landscape much better than Harbaugh? I don't believe anyone thinks Michigan basketball is out there dropping huge NIL bags on these kids, but Juwan seems to be humming right along with high school recruits and reasonable transfers. You can even see where he's been creative in filling out the roster with the new overseas kid.
Harbaugh, on the other hand, seems to be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory with recruit after recruit. That's been thoroughly documented in about 59 other threads.
I say this because the narrative with football seems to be that it's an athletic department problem (NIL and transfer policy) rather than simply a coaching staff problem. But Juwan seems to be dealing just fine with that same AD. Is the difference as simple as the difference between basketball recruiting vs football recruiting in general? Curious if anyone has insight.
How many of these threads do we get after Frederick Moore and Bridgeman commit later today?
Moore is committing at 3pm. Bridgeman just said sometime this evening.
247 has him down for 8 PM Eastern
Jaxon Howard is also one where we're still in the running. He's announcing at 7 PM Eastern
Collins Acheampong pushed back his scheduled commit date of today.
Collins Acheampong pushed back his scheduled commit date of today.
Likely a bad sign for us
Word is the opposite. Acheampong is giving Michigan a chance by delaying and not just running to the Miami money.
I don't think either, or both of their commitments moves the concern meter that much. Since you asked. I think it would be nice but it's not a huge pivot to the positive. Players ranked 300-400 are not likely to do so.
I'm sure the kids are great and I hope they go blue
Moore and Bridgeman are pretty on par with prospects we've been taking in previous years. Is it a huge pivot to the positive? Probably not, but they're guys they are solid commits to get to at least keep our recruiting stable
It does stabilize recruiting and it should create some momentum for the program. I’m not 100% sure that momentum in recruiting is real, but it does seem like schools go on streaks with commitments. It seems like every year we get about half of our players publicly committing over a period of a week or two.
Eleventeen more. Someone should crash a nuclear powered airplane on the next recruiting OP.
There will be 3 per day when/if Dante Moore signs with Oregon😂
I hardly call getting the #305 and some 500+ over recruit as game changers or recruits that should put fans at ease. It will be nice to finally get some positive news, but all is not well in Harbaughs recruiting department.
User name checks out.
How so?
Um, just spit balling here, but your comments appear to "go low" when discussing the "M" football head coach.
By pointing out facts and asking a question? That's not allowed here anymore?
What facts? And how many times it needs to be asked. Crystal balls don't mean that they are committing to Michigan or not committing to Michigan. Transfer portal is not the same for Football. This has been discussed many times. Comparing Howard to Harbaugh based on "opinion" is not a fact. Go ahead and present some facts on why Howard is doing so well and Harbaugh is not. Last I checked, the 5 star 1 and dones that Howard brought didn't bring us a B1G championship. Not to say I don't love or Basketball program, but you are making it sound like Howard has achieved so much more. Just seem to create a controversy from another angle.
No one here thought Harbaugh can win much last year. Look what happened. Give the guy a break. Or not. Up to you.
i mean, it is, but my assumption for why you're getting negged is that your timing is bad. it's the eleventeenth recruiting thread in the last few days, with likely many more to come given there are a number of expected announcements coming this weekend.
i don't care, but i think many will point out this could easily have been posted in any one of the eleventy earlier threads on recruiting
I doubt it's just one thing.
Numbers: Basketball needs to pull 2-3 top tier prospects per year at most. Football has to put together a class of 20+ most seasons, and the best schools are getting 75%+ of those guys as elite players.
Stability: Juwan and the coaching staff have remained intact his entire tenure. He hasn't left speculation of his departure and his assistants have largely been unchanged. Harbaugh and his staff have been...something else.
Relationships: Juwan just had two of his kids go through the relatively tight knit world of elite high school basketball and knows players, coaches and families as a result. Football is just a different world in this regard.
NIL: while none of know exactly what the approaches are for each coach here, let's assume given all the above that it's also different in the world of football and basketball.
The difference between it being basketball and football has a large part in it. There are fewer elite prospects in basketball and they're definitely still getting paid. But with limited roster spots and the fact that players can leave after 1 year to go pro, teams have to be much more careful about who they're offering the large NIL deals.
Football on the other hand has way more recruits so the effect of NIL is getting diluted down to not just elite prospects but mid-low 4 star prospects (prospects that make up the bulk of Michigan's roster) as well. If you just take Collins for example since he's been a major discussion point this week, he's rated as a low 4 star on composite and a 3 star by 247. No doubt he has a high ceiling, but a player of his current skill level/experience and current rating would never be offered a huge NIL deal in basketball as supposedly what Miami may or may not be offering him in football.
The one model I've seen would value Collins at $50k per year. The rumors have Miami offering more than that, but even at $50k, there are not many basketball players warranting that compensation. Sure the highest 5 stars can demand much more, but it would tail off very quickly. If you look at who Juwan is getting traction with (mostly 4* outside the top 50), NIL value is likely not a significant factor.
There’s not enough real world data around what athletes actually are getting to model NIL usefully yet.
Even in that context the on3 model seems particularly wrong (not sure if that’s the one you’re seeing).
This is the one I'm using. It's primarily based on what has been released in Athletic articles:
godDAMN but i'm sick of these threads.
You may not know this, but there's not a secret MGoBlog bylaw requiring you to read or reply to threads you don't like.
there's also not a secret mgoblog bylaw that requires a new thread for every recruiting / NIL thought that pops into one's head, but that doesn't seem to stop anyone from doing it.
Sorry to ruin your Friday, Matty. Next time I'll run my proposed thread by the message board police before posting.
if only there was such a thing.
on the other hand, i currently see seven downvotes on the OP (none from me, i’d point out, feel free to check) and the odds that it gets into positive territory are not good. kinda seems like the “message board police” consists of the whole community. maybe take that as an indicator.
I mean, I really don't give a rat's behind about downvotes.
I'm sure you're a perfectly decent dude in real life. But the segment of this board (seems to be guys in their late 40s-50s for some reason) that seemingly has nothing better to do all day than to shit on threads they don't like is super tiresome.
But the segment of this board (seems to be guys in their late 40s-50s for some reason) that seemingly has nothing better to do all day than to shit on threads they don't like is super tiresome.
i mean .... many folks would say the same about yet another "lets discuss my feelings about recruiting" thread.
not picking on you. as i stated above i don't really care. just pointing out a bit of hypocrisy in that statement and trying to give you insight on why you're getting pushback.
Harbaugh isn't an elite recruiter, Howard is. That allows Howard to overcome some barriers. Its really that simple.
In the same way Kim Barnes Arico got a transfer from oregon state, or Bakich was getting 3-4 transfers every year. Michigan isn't the easiest place in the world to recruit to for elite talent, its not as hard as Harbaugh makes it look.
Dunno. It doesn't seem like we were getting top classes every year going back 20 years.
Carr was a great recruiter. Hoke was a good recruiter.
Gentleman Squirrels touched upon this, but it's worth repeating. An elite basketball player has a number of options outside of college to further his pro career (G League, Europe). He can also leave college after one season, or at anytime, to jump to the NBA. NIL isn't unimportant for college basketball, but I'm sure the thought process for an elite player is along the lines of "what best sets me up for the NBA draft next year?"
Elite football players have ZERO choice. They have to go to college and they have to remain there for 3 seasons. Catastrophic injuries are more apt to happen in football and an NFL career is typically not as long, especially at "contact" positions--RB and LB in particular. Getting paid NOW, via NIL, would seem to be a much higher priority for a 5-star football player.
The incentive structure of the two sports related to college are different.
This, plus the NBA has shown a greater willingness to draft on "potential" even after a bad year compared to the NFL. Both Diabate and Houstan had underwhelming first years for top recruits and yet both were drafted because teams figure they still have lots of upside. Due to the fact football players can't leave for the NFL until they're usually 20-21 there tends to be far less bloom on the rose.
One way I can see NIL going poorly for schools is that they'll pay a ton up front on speculative assets (HS kids) who flame out in college and they're stuck "paying" for them anyway. My guess is you'll see those schools/collectives try to renegotiate or terminate those deals and that'll get really messy both legally and in the court of public opinion. Like, Miami on 2-3 years may well look like a shit show with underwhelming in field results and a roster with $80M in NIL money giving you a shit ROI.
Coaches still have control over playing time and the NFL is still the goal. This is where the transfer portal can help teams immediately move on from underperforming players by stating they won't see the field and welcoming them to transfer. They can also pull scholarships, at least those that aren't 4 years guaranteed.
Here's a hypothetical. Does Spencer Rattler still leave OU if he's getting say 1.5 million a year in NIL money? My guess is yes because he still sees himself as a star QB.
Agreed about there being a lot less potential after 3 years in college football and that potential earnings are more apt to go straight down. Rattler's probably a good example of that as well.
They're two different sports with different landscapes. It's pretty clear that big time NIL schools are putting more effort into football than basketball as well. Not to mention that Juwan has been pretty good about shooting down the NBA rumors while Harbaugh obvious has not about the NFL
Thank God we have a 59th thread that offers no real insight but does take great pains to make broad generalizations about two different sports and their respective recruiting situations.
I'm old enough to remember when people thought Howard's approach to recruiting was hurting UM because he kept taking PGs who couldn't shoot and 5 *s who bolted after mediocre first years.
Roster of 12 vs 85. Not apples to apples.
The roster sizes football vs basketball and thus the recruiting class sizes make this a more difficult comparison than many would like.