15 players who made bad NBA draft decisions
1. Jahii Carson - AZ St
2. Glenn Robinson III, Michigan Wolverines
First, let me make it clear how much I like GR3 as a kid. He’s soft-spoken, humble and almost too nice. He was drafted 40th by Minnesota, and there’s certainly a chance he can stick with the Wolves. However, he could have returned to Ann Arbor, been the primary offensive weapon in 2014-15 -- which is exactly what he needed -- and turned himself into a first-rounder with a guaranteed deal.
7. Laquinton Ross (Ohio St)
It's utterly depressing. No fans. No perks. I't like playing single A baseball. Everyone there is just desperate to do ANYTHING to get themselves noticed so that they can escape.
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale
Let me help...click the link.
Do you see what a lottery pick makes in relation to the last pick in the 1st round, never mind halfway through the 2nd round? Let me do a little math for you. Now in doing this we will assume the players are signing for 100 % of the scale salary, not the 80-120% that is actually possible.
For a top ten pick there is the potential for them to make anywhere from $6,264,300.00 to $14,396,600.00 over the first 3 years of their contract depending on where you were picked. Let's look at number 30 (which is 10 spots better than GR3 got picked): $2,857,200.00 over 3 years.
So that all important "one year quicker to free agency" your talking about has cost the 30th pick anywhere from $3,407,100.00 to $11,539,400.00. Again, this is the 30th pick, not the 40th.
So, lets say Robinson got picked 30th (which we know he didn't), He lost $911,400.00 by coming back to Uni one more year. Had he improved to the point where he gets in the lottery he makes more than double that in his first year no matter which pick he is selected within the top ten. When you factor in how much more he is making in each subsequent year of his contract your point becomes laughable.
Listen, there's no sure things so even if he comes back it's a gamble and I think most people recognize that. But you're asserting that even if he did come back and end up making it into the lottery that he would still be worse off over time. That is complete lunacy.
that people are negging you for stating obvious facts shows the lunacy of people in this thread. They are utterly delusional. And pretty much incompetent at math.
Like everyone else on this blog I wish GRIII the best, but unlike many, my love of all things UM doesn't blind me to reality. You look back on the comments and Matt has a slew of +'s because he is saying what everyone is hoping for, but none of it is based on reality.
If people are bad enough in math to think that passing on $800,000.00 (that actually requires you to get signed and make the NBA team) that likely will increase to $900,000.00 over the course of 3 years (over which time you can be cut at any time) and raising your draft stock to becoming a lottery pick the subsequent year where your contract is guaranteed is a bad idea I don't think any amount of facts will change their minds.
I understand the idea that him slipping to the second round isn't the end of all things good jbut he's trying to pass it off as being a positive....How do you even reason with that? At least as a first rounder your first contract is guaranteed so you will get that money. Nothing about the second round is good and I bet if you asked GRIII he'd be pretty disappointed at how things played out.
NOTHING about the 2nd round is good. It's a massive disappointment for someone like GR III who was a 1st round talent. It's the equivalent of a star football player who was at one point projected in the 1st or 2nd round going in the 7th round of the NFL draft.
Let's not ignore the fact that the Wolves traded into that position to draft GRIII. They obviously thought he was worth the effort, so this might not be as dire as people think. And there is really not much evidence that another year in college would have expanded GRIII's game so much that teams would have considered him a 1st-rounder. More likely, they would have continued to nit-pick his flaws (mediocre shooter for a 3, non-assertive offensively, okay defender) and further minimize his strengths (athleticism).
I don't know where people get this idea that the Wolves traded up for GRIII. They got that pick from the Pelicans as part of the Darius Songaila/Antonio Daniels trade they made five years ago.
http://www.prosportstransactions.com/basketball/DraftTrades/Years/2014…
He's physically and athletically ready for the pro game, he might as well learn to shoot while he's making some money.
And if GR3 came back and didn't make the jump the writer expects then he wouldn't have been drafted at all. He could do very well being able to focus full time on basketball, improving his shooting, handle, and agressiveness. He has the size and athleticism to succeed and seems to still be adjusting to his size.
And that's fine. Was it good or bad? I would have selfishly liked to have seen him come back. But what if he comes back and plays pretty much the same? What if he improves his shot making a little bit, but now is forced to create more on his own and doesn't necessarily have the supporting cast, and then slips even further to an even worse situation? So he lost a year making money as a pro? Well, then maybe it isn't the wrong decision. That's the thing, there is no way to tell if it was the right decision or a bad decision.
The right decision, it seems, would have been to leave after his Freshman year. But now he was supposed to come back for his Jr year and that was supposed to help him. I kind of question that. Good luck GRIII.
Yeah, if he had just sucked he could have slipped entirely out of the draft, which would have been worse. That wasn't very likely. and if his abilities are really that suspect then he is done anyway. There is always the spectre of a major injury and that is the one thing no one can control. Again, that wasn't very likely, and he would have still been likely to go in the 2nd round unless his future to play basketball was in jeopardy.
Honestly, the people in this thread talking about his 2nd round draft position as if it is some sort of great "opportunity" are delusional. The "opportunity" you have is the NBA DRAFT. THAT is your big shot. When a talent like GR III goes in the 2nd round of the draft, there is no "silver lining". It is a collosal error on the part of his team of advisors. They either gave him terrible advice or they were being fed bullshit by some NBA teams who told GR III they wanted him in the 1st round and then passed on him. Or some NBA team did honestly want him but then changed their mind when someone else dropped to them. Who knows what was promised to GR III?
You guys can spin it all you want. This was clearly a massive mistake by GR III and the article posted by the OP has it right--he was one of the obvious guys in the draft who had the most to gain by coming back for another year of college ball.
None of this means GR III can't still make it now. But his road is about 4-5 times harder now than it would have been if he had been drafted in the first round.
It's not a bad decision if you operate under the assumption that he wasn't gonna improve that much. He left early while he still had "potential" that scouts can drool over. If he returned and improved only marginally like he did this year, then there was probably no chance of him making it into the first or early second round. Maybe not even drafted.
if you assume he couldn't repeat the performance he was giving at the end of the season last year and that he wasn't going to get any better at all, then yeah, abandon ship and go. I saw a guy with a ton of potential who was finally putting it together and who, if he played like he was capable all year, was pretty much a mid to low first round lock, somewhere in the 17-27 range.
Oh well, his life, now he's gotta battle back and make what he will with it.
Something I've not seen brought up enough is that each year's draft is completely different, so it's no always even comparing the same player from year to year. It's more how he compares to other players available in the draft. This year's draft had a lot more quality players than last year's and possibly more than next year's as well. It's quite possible that last year or next year he would have a much greater chance of going in the first round no matter how much or little his game improves.