Historical Performance of NCAA seeds
[Ed-M: Bumped anyway!]
I was going to put all this into a diary and make it totally clever and informative and interesting before the tournament really kicks off, but I'm not going to have the time to do that so, in lieu of that, some unanalyzed charts for your pleasure.
I got all this information by compiling data from running searches at this database: http://projects.washingtonpost.com/ncaa/mens-basketball/search/.
First I recorded the winning percentage of all 16 seeds in each round of the tournament:
| Win % in Rounds |
|
|
|
| |
Seed | First | Second | Sweet 16 | Elite Eight | Final Four | Championship |
1 | 100% | 88% | 82% | 60% | 56% | 64% |
2 | 96% | 67% | 72% | 48% | 48% | 36% |
3 | 85% | 60% | 49% | 50% | 62% | 38% |
4 | 79% | 54% | 32% | 64% | 22% | 50% |
5 | 66% | 55% | 18% | 86% | 50% | 0% |
6 | 68% | 52% | 35% | 23% | 67% | 50% |
7 | 60% | 29% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
8 | 46% | 19% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 100% |
9 | 54% | 7% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
10 | 40% | 45% | 37% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
11 | 32% | 36% | 33% | 50% | 0% | 0% |
12 | 34% | 51% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
13 | 21% | 18% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
14 | 15% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
15 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
16 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Then using this I calculated the percentage of chance a given seed had to get to each level of the tournament:
| % Chance to make round |
|
|
| ||
Seed | Second | Sweet 16 | Elite Eight | Final Four | Championship | To win it all |
1 | 100.00% | 88.00% | 72.16% | 43.30% | 24.25% | 15.52% |
2 | 96.00% | 64.32% | 46.31% | 22.23% | 10.67% | 3.84% |
3 | 85.00% | 51.00% | 24.99% | 12.50% | 7.75% | 2.94% |
4 | 79.00% | 42.66% | 13.65% | 8.74% | 1.92% | 0.96% |
5 | 66.00% | 36.30% | 6.53% | 5.62% | 2.81% | 0.00% |
6 | 68.00% | 35.36% | 12.38% | 2.85% | 1.91% | 0.95% |
7 | 60.00% | 17.40% | 5.74% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
8 | 46.00% | 8.74% | 5.86% | 2.93% | 0.97% | 0.97% |
9 | 54.00% | 3.78% | 0.95% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
10 | 40.00% | 18.00% | 6.66% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
11 | 32.00% | 11.52% | 3.80% | 1.90% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
12 | 34.00% | 17.34% | 1.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
13 | 21.00% | 3.78% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
14 | 15.00% | 1.95% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
15 | 4.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Using this I calculated the expected wins for a team at each seed:
Seed | Total wins Exp |
1 | 3.43 |
2 | 2.43 |
3 | 1.84 |
4 | 1.47 |
5 | 1.17 |
6 | 1.21 |
7 | 0.83 |
8 | 0.65 |
9 | 0.59 |
10 | 0.65 |
11 | 0.49 |
12 | 0.52 |
13 | 0.25 |
14 | 0.17 |
15 | 0.04 |
16 | 0 |
And using this I calculated the expected wins that each conference should get in this year's tournament:
| Big East |
| Big Ten |
| PAC-10 |
| Big 12 |
| SEC |
| ACC |
|
Seed | # | Ex.W | # | Ex.W | # | Ex.W | # | Ex.W | # | Ex.W | # | ExW. |
1 | 1 | 3.43 | 1 | 3.43 |
| 0 | 1 | 3.43 |
| 0 | 1 | 3.43 |
2 | 1 | 2.43 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 | 1 | 2.43 | 1 | 2.43 |
3 | 2 | 3.68 | 1 | 1.84 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
4 | 1 | 1.47 | 1 | 1.47 |
| 0 | 1 | 1.47 | 1 | 1.47 |
| 0 |
5 | 1 | 1.17 |
| 0 | 1 | 1.17 | 1 | 1.17 | 1 | 1.17 |
| 0 |
6 | 3 | 3.63 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
7 |
| 0 |
| 0 | 2 | 1.66 | 1 | 0.83 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
8 |
| 0 | 1 | 0.65 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
9 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 0.59 |
| 0 |
| 0 | 1 | 0.59 |
| 0 |
10 |
| 0 | 2 | 1.3 |
| 0 |
| 0 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 0.65 |
11 | 1 | 0.49 |
| 0 |
| 0 | 1 | 0.49 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
12 |
| 0 |
| 0 | 1 | 0.52 |
| 0 |
| 0 | 1 | 0.52 |
13 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
14 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
15 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
16 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 11 | 16.89 | 7 | 9.28 | 4 | 3.35 | 5 | 7.39 | 5 | 6.31 | 4 | 7.03 |
So, the B1G's 7 teams should total 9.28 wins based on seeding to meet historical expectations. Since Michigan is going to win six, I don't see this as being a problem at all.
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