Did you know the Arena League sponsored bowl games? Just kidding, they don’t. But, if they did, these would be their games. All three of today’s games could tilt the pinball machine and ultimately give us Arena Football like scores. Nevada and Maryland square off in Boise where I believe the state government of Idaho mandates that any game played on Smurf Turf becomes a shootout. Down in Houston, WMU and Rice will provide a look at defense optional football. The loser should score at least 30 in that one. Meanwhile, in San Diego the Holiday Bowl convenes. Just about every Holiday Bowl has involved some wacky scoring tomfoolery. With Oklahoma St and Oregon we have two teams who are more than capable of adding to this bowl game’s high scoring history. It should be a fun day of football, especially if you hate defense. Of course, this leads to a quandary. I want so much to play the Over in all of today’s games. But I’ve been getting killed on totals throughout the college season. To make matters more challenging are the high numbers set in these games by the oddsmakers. Both teams could reach the 30s in the Houston and Holiday Bowls, for example, and still go under the total of 74 and 76 respectively. My sense is you could put some coin on the Over in all three and likely come away with a 2-1 record. Humanitarian Bowl, Boise, 4:30 pm Nevada vs. Maryland. Lines, Nevada -2, O/U 59 Have you seen a picture of Maryland QB Chris Turner? He kind of reminds me of an adult version of that dopey, wimpy neighbor kid from the show ‘My So Called Life.’ I can’t in good conscience put my money on him. Besides, I think we have an intangible emotional edge today with Nevada. The Wolf Pack is stoked about being here and can’t wait to show off their stuff against a BCS school. You have to wonder about the Terps. The trip to Boise is always something of a gag gift for the ACC school. These are college kids and I sure they would rather be in a sunnier spot playing in more of a showdown game. Instead, they’re in Boise, where it might snow, and they’re playing a little known team and a quirky offense that’s humming at full throttle. Maybe that’s why the WAC is 4-0 ATS in the last four Humanitarian Bowls against the ACC. Michigan fans may want to look away when Nevada has the ball. They run the Pistol Formation, a weird semi shotgun look that, at times mirrors the zone read, while other times is a pass first look. I expect OSU to use even more Pistol Formation next season and every success Nevada has today with it, try not to picture Tyrell Pryor doing the same. Nevada has their Pistol working to perfection. And, they should since their longtime coach Chris Ault pioneered the offense. In the past, it’s been a pass first look, but because of his personnel this season, Ault has the Nevada 2008 Pistol gashing people with the run. QB Colin Kaeperneck has rushed for over 1,000 yards and accounted for 19 touchdowns. He’s only the fifth player in history to have 2,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing in the same season. Tailback Vai Taua has over 1,400 yards and sports a gaudy 6.5 ypc. They will run all over the questionable Maryland D, which has had issues at the point of attack all season long and enter this game without their DC who left to take another job. While Turner and his top target Darrius Heyward-Bey will land a few haymakers against the weak Nevada pass defense, I just don’t think it will be enough to get the win. Turner will have to put together his best game of the season just for Maryland to keep up with the Nevada attack. I don’t think he has a game like that in him. Plus, I think they’re vulnerable to pressure and Nevada, while hardly stout on the defensive front, has a pair of playmaking defensive ends that remind me of the Utah combo we learned about many weeks ago. I think they’ll fluster Turner enough and force a mistake or two out of an offense that’s just 99th in the country in turnover margin. I don’t trust Maryland away from home. On the road, the Terps are 1-4 and were outscored 25.85 to 13.2. Away from College Park, Maryland lost to Middle Tennessee State and drubbed 31-0 by Virginia, two teams that are nowhere close to a bowl game. While the Terps have struggled putting points on the board away from home, Nevada scores wherever they play. They’re second in the nation in running the football (nearly 300 yards per game), 12th in scoring offense (39.74 ppg) and have not been held below 34 points since mid September. The Pick: Nevada -2, 1 Unit……We have a pair of average defenses in this one. I’ll take the team with the smoother running offense, especially one like Nevada which will control the clock and pace of the game with their multi faceted rushing attack. Also, its Maryland’s first look at the Smurf Turf and it will play with their minds and cause even more focus issues for the Terps. Texas Bowl, Houston, 8pm Western Michigan vs. Rice. Lines, Rice -3, O/U 74 When a pair of 9-3 teams from BCS leagues swap paint in a bowl game, it usually generates a buzz and is labeled must see viewing. The same can not be said when 9-3 mid majors square off. That’s too bad because this contest between Rice and Western Michigan ought to be a doozy with two of the premier passing attacks in the country going head to head. Rice’s Chase Clement and WMU’s Tim Hiller are at the top of their games, have next level targets at their disposal and to score all day long. Both teams look to make history for their programs today. WMU has never won a bowl game, while Rice has not been victorious in a postseason game since the FDR administration. Both are treating this like the Rose Bowl. It ought to be a blast. Expect this game to cause some panic within the Michigan fan base. Hiller and just about all his weapons will be back next year and open the season in Ann Arbor. Try not to freak out too much as he’s marching the Broncos up and down the Reliant Stadium field. All those open receivers, no worries. I’m sure Stevie Brown will be there to save the day come next September 5. Both teams enter the game with sick passing stats. Rice is 5th nationally in passing, 8th in scoring and 10th in overall offense. The Broncos counter with the 10th ranked passing offense in the nation and scores a smidge under 30 points per game. Rice QB Chase Clement has accounted for 120 total TDs during his Owl career and this year has a 41 to 7 TD/INT ratio. He tosses five TD games around like its candy. Not to be outdone is WMU’s Tim Hiller. Hiller has fought injuries throughout this career, but he;s been completely healthy this season and threw for 34 TDs to just 8 INTs. Each has a stud WR. For Rice, its Jarret Dillard, who has a speed and deep threat game. For WMU, its Jamarko Simmons, who has more of a physical game. Neither will be stopped much by the other’s teams secondary. Both teams passing offenses are a wash, so to find a winner in this game, lets try and figure out who will perform the other facets of the game better. I think that answer is Western Michigan. I like their rushing attack with Brandon West a bit better than Rice when the Owls look to run. More than anything, I think WMU has a better chance at getting a stop or two than the Rice defense does. Rice has allowed 7 non BCS team to score 28 or more points. Against the run, WMU allows just 3.8 ypc while Rice gives up over 5 yards per rush against. This tells me that WMU has a better chance at playing keep away from the high octane Owl attack. Other factor to consider include WMU has only allowed 14 sacks this year. Rice won’t touch Hiller. And, Hiller is getting his security blanket back, TE and uber possession receiver Brandon Ledbetter, who missed most of the final month of the season with an injury. In a game where both offenses will rock and roll, I am taking the squad that is better running the football with a bit more of a competent defense. The Pick: WMU +3, 1 Unit…..The Broncos also have the more reliable kicker in this game, something not to be overlooked in a proverbial coin flip toss up. Holiday Bowl, San Diego, 8pm Oregon vs. Oklahoma St. Lines, OSU -3, O/U 76 Two trendy things to do in bowl season collide in this game. Always take the Underdog in the Holiday Bowl. And always take Pac 10 Dogs in bowl season. In the thirty Holiday Bowls played, the underdog has gone 21-9 ATS, with 11 outright wins. Meanwhile, the Pac 10 has been 16-5 ATS in bowl games when installed as the underdog. Of course, neither trend worked in this game last year as Texas thumped Arizona St. But, we’re undaunted and back on it again this year. To quote the famous baseball manager Montgomery Burns as he hissed to his petulant outfielder, ”It’s called playing the percentages, Strawberry, playing the percentages. Hopefully, doing so tonight works out as well for me as it did for the Springfield Power Plant back in the day. I’m comfortable taking Oregon for a couple other reasons as well. They always play well in their bowl game. Head Coach Mike Bellotti is 5-1 as a bowl underdog. The one non cover in this stretch occurred when a member of the Leaf Family tree started at QB. Over the last 11 seasons, his Ducks are 23-12 ATS away from home when catching points. And, the Ducks are hot right now, scoring 55 and 65 points respectively, in wins against fellow bowlers Arizona and Oregon St to close the season. I love the Ducks running back tandem of Jeremiah Johnson and LaGarette Blount. I don’t think Okie St can contain those two which will open the offense even further for Oregon. The Cowboys have their weapons too and if Zac Robinson is the game’s MVP, they cold win in a walk. One concern for OSU is the fact that stud WR Dez Byrant has been a bit of a non factor in a lot of key games this season. I think Oregon is the established program while Okie St is bit more of an upstart. I think the Ducks history of doing well in bowls, away from home and as an underdog puts them on the ride side on the intangible chart tonight. They more than matchup athletically to the Cowboys and in a neutral setting I will take a Bellotti coached team over a Gundy one any day of the week. The Pick, Oregon +3, 1 Unit……I always play Pac 10 Dogs. I always play the Dog in the Holiday Bowl. Really, that’s the only true thought I have put into this one. Here’s hoping the Ducks play the pass better tonight than they have all year. Still, I think they can control this game running the football. Bellotti knows how to beat better teams, except for ones that call L.A. home, and I trust that blueprint tonight Ok, I cant resist on these Overs. I am placing a half-unit wager on all three. Seriously, we’re in for video game football today. Maryland/Nevada Over 59…….When Nevada has the ball, its Pistol O that nobody has really stopped all year. When the Terps have the ball, they’re going against of the worst pass defenses in the country WMU/Rice Over 74…….Defense will be optional in this one. WMU is mediocre at best defensively, but they look like the Steel Curtain compared to the Owls. Oregon/Okie St Over 76…….Both teams are in the top-10 in total offense and scoring offense. Both Defenses are ranked worse than 80th in total defense and worse than 100 in passing defense. Could both clubs really get into the 40s in this one?