Best:  Objects May Appear Closer Than They Are

https://youtu.be/rxqHVoZ0fzc

Every season, and really every weekend, there are games where the outcome can take on a myriad of different hues depending on who’s viewing it.  People will point to pre-game context, missing players, the flow of the game, high-leverage calls or plays that went one way or another, etc. to erect a framework around the contest that best captures how they thought the game went.  These are all subjective representations of the same objective event, which rarely falls into a tight narrative because, as cliche as it is, everyone is the hero of his or her story and that’s a powerful force in how the world functions.  Even games that feel like they have such a clean narrative can have (somewhat dubious) re-framings when it serves the storyteller, sometimes going to lengths that can beggar belief.

https://twitter.com/bseddon/status/795006851406528513

But more often than not the tale of a football game has fluidity depending on who watches it – case in point this game against Maryland.  On the one hand, Michigan came into the game undefeated and untested, beating their first three overmatched opponents by a combined score of 166-17, and even that overstates the domination because those 17 points came against the 2nd and 3rd team defenses.  The offense had scored on 16 of their 23 first-half possessions, a 70% clip that included twice as many touchdowns (12) as punts (6) and no turnovers.  And they did it with equal dexterity on the ground and in the air, with 7 rushing TDs and 5 passing TDs.  Opponent caveats aplenty but these were still 3 FBS-level teams Michigan absolutely ground into a fine paste and then sprinkled over the main dish.  J.J. McCarthy was dealing and virtually perfect throwing the ball, Blake Corum was one of the national leaders in rushing touchdowns despite touching the ball about 11 times a game, and the receivers were running crisp routes and blocking downfield so effectively they looked like slimmed-down linemen.  Defensively Michigan was just as stout, limiting all three opponents to 0 points in the first half and an average drive length (!) of 7.6 yards as well as generating 2 turnovers, a punt block, and a punt return TD. 

Now, undefeated Maryland posed a much stauncher test than those earlier teams, especially offensively, as they had a plethora of highly-regarded athletes and a veteran QB who is likely to be taken in the first couple of rounds of the NFL draft.  Defensively Maryland was going to be the first sustained test of McCarthy (and the sometimes-rickety pass blocking of the offensive line) against P5 talent and scheme, even if they came into the game with a middling defensive unit per both the basic and fancy stats.  If nothing else, they stood as a significant jump up in intensity and athleticism compared to the first 3 defenses the team had seen.  I assumed that Michigan’s offense would still be able to move the ball against Maryland with limited resistance but that the Terps would be able to move the ball against Michigan’s defense, especially if Tagovailoa was allowed to sit in the pocket given Michigan’s questionable pass rushing ability.  And for the most part, that’s how the game went, with Michigan scoring on 6 of their 11 drives and leaving a couple of more points on the field thanks to a fumble by C.J. Stokes deep in Maryland territory and a rare 43-yard miss from Moody.  Maryland moved the ball as well, racking up nearly 200 yards in the first half and scoring on their first 3 drives (save for the muffed kickoff to open the game that UM turned into a touchdown).  If not for a late TD run by Corum on 4th down, the Terrapins would have gone into the half, at worst, tied with Michigan. 

The third quarter was mostly a stalemate even as Michigan double Maryland’s yardage (84 to 41), but Michigan scored early in the 4th quarter to take an 11-point lead.  Maryland then embarked on a 10-play, 75 yard drive to pull within 5, but Michigan quickly responded with another FG to keep the lead at 8 and then after forcing Tagovailoa’s second pick scored a TD to effectively seal the game away.  Maryland did score late on one of those drives where their backup QB converted multiple 3rd/4th-and-longs, including a 23-yard scramble on 3rd-and-21.  Michigan then recovered the ensuing onside kick and ran the clock out. 

https://twitter.com/Johnubacon/status/1573755953173987340

So yeah, looking at the final score this was a 7-point game, but once Michigan pulled ahead in the 4th it never felt THAT close.  Before that last drive Maryland had 127 yards in the second half to Michigan’s 229, and Michigan was finally starting to get some pressure on Maryland’s QB and shutting down Maryland’s running game – they only had 33 yards rushing in the second half before that last drive.  Maryland didn’t really have an answer for Corum on the ground and had McCarthy just thrown the ball to his open receivers with a bit more consistency this game would have likely been the double-digit one we all expected.  That isn’t intended to take away from Maryland – they played really well and look improved on both sides of the ball compared to last year.  But this wasn’t even like the Rutgers game last year where the Scarlet Knights outgained Michigan and generally controlled the second half; this was more one of those games where a limited number of possessions led to a tightening at the end of the game that hopefully shook some of the rust off the team but doesn’t portend bad times ahead.

Meh:  J.J. Okay

First off, I apologize for the pun title and I’m already nervous I’ve wasted the one good one I have on the 4th game of the year.  But ah well.

Second, this was a … fine game by McCarthy.  His top-line numbers were solid (220 yards, 70% completion, 2 TDs) and in only his 3rd start he played with solid poise against a defense that dared him to throw short and consistently.  He used his feet to buy himself time, and with Erick All in the lineup he turned to Schoonmaker to move the chains on a number of possessions.  He hit both Bell and Johnson in stride so that both of them could pick up significant yards after the catch, and unlike the past couple of weekends seemingly got the offense set and ready with time to spare (though it was impossible to tell given the lack of a play clock on the screen) as they never burned a timeout because of confusion.  So to be clear, a solid performance from McCarthy. 

That said, this was the first game of the year where he struggled at times.  He missed quite a bit throwing the ball downfield, consistently overthrowing open receivers and failing to make the safe play and instead trying to run around and either spring someone loose or run it in himself.  People will marvel at his Fran Tarkenton-esque scramble on 3rd down in the second quarter but (a) that’s not going to work against better defensive lines and (b) he took an unnecessary hit at the end instead of stepping out of bounds once he secured the first.  And when McCarthy tried the same move later he fumbled the ball (or possibly intentionally grounded the ball) and cost the team 15 yards, which pushed Michigan out of the redzone on a drive that ultimately led to the missed Moody kick.  He also took a sack deep in Michigan’s end in the 3rd quarter after scrambling around in the pocket for 5+ seconds, seemingly ignoring at least two chances to just run for the first down.  He continued to lock onto a receiver while missing multiple other open receivers, culminating in a near-pick as he tried to force a ball to Wilson in the endzone in double coverage.  For example, he missed a screamingly wide-open receiver on the wheel route so he could throw an uncatchable ball to a covered Wilson downfield.  And for what feels like the umpteenth time under Harbaugh, UM’s QB has seemingly forgotten how to run a successful read-option and instead handed off for minimal gain or losses.

Is this a bit harsh of me?  Sure, but seemingly no more than what was applied to Cade McNamara last year, including against Maryland.  Both from watching the game in real-time as well as from fans’ reports from the game, McCarthy missed open receivers somewhat consistently and the throws he did try to make downfield weren’t necessarily the best ones.  I’ll be interested to see what Gardner and the UFR have to say about this game from a QB perspective, as mistakes were made that McCarthy (to his immense credit) recognized after the game.  Not having McNamara available to step in and calm the nerves a bit, much like they did last year, is going to force McCarthy and the staff to work through these growing pains with a limited safety net, and I’d be lying if I wasn’t nervous about Iowa baiting him into some bad plays this coming weekend.  McCarthy still gives this team a great chance to win any game on the schedule, but those first three opponents were never going to test him and so he’s going to have to make adjustments quickly going forward.

Best:  Sticking it To the Hometown Team

Jim Harbaugh is a man of many quirks and idiosyncrasies, but one less-noted ones is his penchant for trying to facilitate hometown guys playing well against the local team.  For example, he called 3 designed runs for Jabrill Peppers against Rutgers in 2016 that resulted in 74 yards and 2 TDs, and two weeks ago he dialed up multiple deep throws to Roman Wilson against Hawaii.  In this game, both by circumstance (Edwards was still out and guys like Stokes and Gash didn’t instill much confidence) and effectiveness, Blake Corum was able to put on a show against a Maryland team that resides a mere 30-ish miles away from his old stomping ground at St. Frances Academy.  Now, there doesn’t appear to be a ton of animosity between Corum and the Terrapins, certainly nothing approaching the vitriol shared by Hunter Dickinson toward the local school, but nonetheless Harbaugh just kept feeding the ball to him whenever Michigan needed a spark and he delivered with a career-high 243 yards (!) on 30 (!!) carries and 2 TDs, an extremely healthy 8.1 ypc.  And while there were a couple of long scampers in that total – his first TD was a 33-yarder on 4th-and-1 to take the lead heading into the half while his second TD was a 47 yarder to seal the game – he had 8 carries over 9 yards and another couple above 7.  And despite running the ball 30 times he only recorded 3 negative plays, each for 1 yard, while also picking up 5 first downs on 3rd and 4th down. 

It was a virtuoso performance from a Corum, who despite being regarded as one of the best running backs in the country last season came into this year as a bit of an unknown, as he no longer had Hassan Haskins in the backfield to share some of the load, especially in short yardage.  Corum is always at his best in the open field, where his combination of size, shiftiness, and speed make him incredibly difficult to get a hand on, let alone take down.  Most of his highlights feature him seeing a crease, slipping through a flailing arm tackle, and then switching to another gear as he jets toward the endzone.  He doesn’t shy away from contact by any means, and his compact form and ability to reset his feet as gaps open and close makes him a suitable short-yardage player.  But before this game Corum had only carried the ball 20+ times twice in his career – last season against Washington and Rutgers, the latter being a slog where it felt like he got worn down as the game got tighter.  By comparison, Haskins carried the ball 20+ times 9 times, including 7 times last season, and played the irresistible force Harbaugh loves to bring out when he wants to impose his will on an opponent. 

It’s still early and Corum absolutely can’t be expected to repeat 20+ carry games against the better defenses on the schedule, but this performance didn’t feel as desperate as Zach Charbonnet’s 33-carry performance against Army in 2019 when it was clear Michigan couldn’t move the ball any other way.  Corum was just too effective, too tough to stop in this contest and Michigan road that hot hand to a victory.  With Edwards hopefully returning in the next couple of weeks and C.J. Stokes likely getting a chance to redeem himself for the costly fumble in this game, Corum should wind up sharing the carries a bit more.  But it’s good to know that when called upon he’s able to put together this type of performance.

Worst:  Announcers From a Different Dimension

I really do try to cut announcers a break – football is a game of 22 people moving independently, oftentimes very fast, on a large field trying to corral an oblong ball.  There’s so much going on that it’s easy to miss the smaller nuances of line play, secondary alignment, route options, and various other UFR-level points of discussion that can be missed in the moment.  But there are also times, such as in this game, where I seriously wondered if Joel Klatt and Gus Johnson had transcended this astral plane and were watching some other football game featuring animal-themed programs in the Midwest because their analysis was all over the place.  Klatt in particular kept talking about how Maryland was “dominating” the line of scrimmage running the ball despite Michigan having over 100 yards more on the ground on only 4 more carries, and a Maryland long run of 23 yards that came on the last Maryland drive as their backup QB scrambled around on 3rd down.  Similarly, he went on an extended jag about how Maryland’s corners were shutting down Michigan receivers only to show multiple clips of Michigan receivers (usually Wilson) streaking past Terps defenders and getting multiple steps on them even as they grabbed at their jerseys and hands.  And while McCarthy had his moments where he failed to read Maryland’s coverage properly and missed on some deep balls, he still put up 8.5 ypa and 70% completion while throwing 2 TDs and no picks.  I get that you’re trying to weave narratives out of a game that was decidedly “closer” than people expected, but there were lots of relevant talking points in this game that the announcers could have organically focused on, not something them seemingly scribbled down right before taking the air and doggedly force-feeding to viewers for the next 3 hours.

Worst:  “Letting ‘em Play”

One of the my big bugaboos around sports is not when officials call a game overly-critical (i.e. a lot of penalties/fouls/etc.) but when they “swallow the whistle” and refrain from calling any infractions unless they are blindingly obvious.  When a game is called “tightly” the ostensive goal is to make sure both teams follow the rules, and thus both teams can adjust accordingly because the feedback loop is really quick and efficient – you hold someone, you grab a facemask, you interfere and a flag comes out.  It’s likely not going to be the most aesthetically-pleasing game to watch but the message is easy to follow.  But when referees let guys just clutch and grab for 4 quarters, when they don’t review questionable plays, when they act like parents of toddlers and are just trying to keep the momentum going and aren’t asking any questions about why shoes are on hands and pop tart flecks are stuck in everyone’s hair, you get a game like this where Maryland’s “great pass defense” is just them grabbing guys 15 yards downfield and interceptions that clearly did the cha-cha on the turf are considered golden.  And the pass interferences went both ways; I think Green and Turner are really good cornerbacks but Maryland’s got some legitimate receivers and I clocked a couple of times when they’d just grab Jarrett or Demus when the ball hadn’t even left Tualia’s possession.  Similarly, much will be made of Michigan’s struggles in rushing the passer or tackling ball carriers in space, but it certainly seemed there were a number of times when Michigan’s ends would get the 8-yard bend only to be yanked back by a tackle or a Maryland receiver would sit on a Michigan defender as he tried to break up a screen pass or outside run.  Yes, Maryland’s offensive line is pretty good and Taulia’s ability to move in the pocket bought him some time, but this was still a game where Michigan got more pressure than showed up in the box score. 

And while I fully accept that teams play differently against different opponents on different days and can sometimes exceed their “average” performance as a result, I find it hard to believe that a team averaging over 10 penalties and 90 yards per game somehow didn’t commit a single visible infraction until a false start on their final drive of the game.  And Maryland has a recent history of being a pretty penalized team, leading the conference in penalties per game in 2021 and 2020 after being middle-of-the-pack in the conference in 2019, and even with their 1-penalty performance this weekend still lead the conference this season.   Michigan also didn’t play a particularly clean game either and was only tagged for a single facemask penalty on 3rd down, but in a game where neither team did a great job slowing the other team down it was frustrating to see a lot of transgressions go uncalled.

Worst:  Tackle Somebody

Perhaps the biggest concern coming into the season was Michigan’s depth at linebacker.  The general consensus was that Junior Colson was poised for a breakout, Nakhai Hill-Green was likely going to be fine-to-good with another year of development…and then a big lump of unknowns.  Michael Barrett was a Viper without a position under both Macdonald and Minter, but was a steady hand and reasonably effective when not asked to do too much.  Kalel Mullings was a fringe top-250 player from Milton Academy out here in Massachusetts (one the lesser law firm-sounding prep schools in this area) who was moonlighting at RB for parts of the offseason.  At least he’s been on campus for a couple of years and could be pointed in the general direction of opponent, which is more than could be said for the gaggle of freshmen who comprise the bulk of the remaining options.  But if you’re keeping score at home that’s 2.5 guys who’ve played somewhat-significant snaps at linebacker for Michigan and only 1 of them people were generally excited about seeing out there. 

But NHG hasn’t played a down this year, still recovering from a soft tissue injury, and while that didn’t matter against teams like CSU and UConn the further lack of depth his absence created was far more pronounced against Maryland.  Colson led the team in tackles with 13 but took some bad angles (at least early on) and looked tentative against Maryland’s quick-moving offense, including a time where he basically stood in the endzone as Maryland ran right at him for a TD.  Barrett gave a workman-life performance but wasn’t particularly disruptive, and Mullings rarely got in but absolutely busted on Maryland’s last TD when he was unset at the snap.  Now, Maryland’s offense is going to mess with a lot of linebackers, especially when the defensive line can’t consistently get pressure to knock of Taulia’s rhythm, but this was the first time this year when it felt like Michigan’s talent limitations at the second level showed out, and you have to imagine future teams are going to try to pick on them even more.  Iowa probably won’t because I’m not sure Brian Ferentz even looks at an opponent scouting report, but PSU, Illinois, and (shudders) OSU absolutely will try to get these linebackers moving around in space and unless we see a dramatic improvement out of the existing players and/or NHG recovers quickly from his injury we’ll probably see some repeats of this game.

Quick Hits:

• Mazi Smith is a beast and Jenkins can get some inside pressure, but at this point it’s pretty clear that Michigan doesn’t really have a consistent edge presence.  Morris was able to get to the QB a couple of times, including a hit that seemingly banged up Taulia, but when Mike Sainristil is leading your team in sacks (with 2) heading into week 5 that’s not optimal.  I do expect Michigan to have slightly better success going against Iowa but this feels like a season where Michigan’s going to have to scheme their way to sustained pressure.
• The one consistent bright spot on defense, though, has been the secondary.  As noted Sainristil looks great as a DB, and both Turner and Green played really well in coverage against one of the better receiving corps in the conference.  Turner made a great effort on that sorta-pick he had, while Moten made a Dax-level play in picking out the other errant Taulia pass.  With questions in front of them it’s imperative that the secondary continues this high-level play, and considering how they acquitted themselves against Maryland it feels likely they’ll keep up.
• The offensive line largely played as well as I expected – Maryland didn’t send a ton of pressure but there were few obvious breakdowns and Michigan was able to move the ball on the ground consistently.  Iowa is a different beast but this went about as well as expected.
• A couple of game theory issues I had.  I absolutely did not like the Bell sorta-pass play because it (at best) had 2 receivers on the route and not enough blockers on the play side to give Bell a credible chance to run if his options were covered.  And as Klatt rightly noted in the broadcast, Michigan hadn’t run those end-arounds and sweeps enough to really establish it, which is why there were 5 Maryland defenders to meet Bell as the came across the field.  Similarly, Michigan’s decision to run Gash on 3rd-and-4 and then punt made little sense to me.  You’re at midfield and McCarthy has shown the ability to get to the edge.  Running a guy who is smaller than Blake Corum as if he’s a mooseback made zero sense, especially if you aren’t then going to go for it on 4th-and-2.  Just a waste of a pretty decent drive.

Next Week:  Iowa

Iowa beat Rutgers 27-10, which on one hand seems really scary if it means the Hawkeyes discovered an offense – a real “Happy learned how to putt” situation.  But dig a little deeper and you see the Hawkeyes defense scored 14 of those 27 points on a fumble recover for a TD and a pick-six against Rutgers’s backup QB while barely cresting 270 yards and giving up 361 yards (including 300 in the air) to the Scarlet Knights.  And Rutgers was able to move the ball against Iowa with some consistency, piecing together drives of 66, 23, 40, 82, 63, and 33 yards.  Iowa was able to string together some drives as well but at this point it’s pretty clear that if you maintain near-parity in the turnover department against the Hawkeyes you’ll have a good chance of winning.  It’ll behoove Michigan’s offense to just chug along and not try to be heroes, and especially for McCarthy to play within himself and be happy with some checkdowns and shorter runs.  Expect Ferentz to pull out all the stops as he usually does against Michigan, but Michigan is the better team and playing a close-ish game with Maryland will hopefully get them settled for Kinnick.