Okay, since my departure the following things went down with the basketball team:

1. They clubbed Penn State by 20 at Crisler.
2. They lost solidly but played pretty well against UConn.
3. They were clubbed by Michigan State in an ugly game.
4. They squeezed by Northwestern in overtime.

Michigan now stands at 16-10 and 6-7 in conference. The vast and wide assumption has been that a .500 Big Ten record gets them in, so to be assured of a spot in the tournament Michigan must go 3-2 against this schedule:

• Minnesota
• @ Iowa
• Purdue
• @ Wisconsin
• @ Minnesota

Is this doable? Eh… it'll be difficult. Iowa is crappy and Michigan should be able to handle them on the road—if they don't it's pretty much over, anyway. Minnesota and Wisconsin aren't exactly tearing up the Big Ten, either, as both of them are just one game ahead of Michigan in the conference standings, but Wisconsin clubbed Michigan earlier in the year. Purdue is 9-4 in conference, 20-6 overall, and seems like a good bet to beat Michigan even on the road.

It's ugly at Kenpom, which has Michigan favored in exactly one game—tonight's matchup against Minnesota—and foresees 8-10. Which, credit to Kenpom, has been its stalwart prediction since the Big Ten season opened.

Could Michigan get in at 8-10? Eh… maybe, what with those dual UCLA/Duke wins from earlier in the season, but they'd almost have to win twice in the Big Ten tournament, which would require a second-round neutral court victory over Purdue or Michigan State, most likely: tough sledding.

That makes tonight's game huge. Michigan's best bet appears to be winning tonight and taking out Iowa on the road, which would give them three cracks at that ninth Big Ten win. Even if none of those cracks is particularly likely, the odds would be in their favor then. Now, not so much.

I wish I could provide some more detailed analysis, but I haven't seen anything in two weeks and just have the vaguest outlines of what's gone down: LLP imploded, Grady benched, Harris erratic but keeping the team afloat in some games, everyone tiny still, etc.

UMHoops has a more detailed preview. Minnesota's strengths include defense, forcing turnovers, and offensive rebounds; their weaknesses include turnovers of their own and shooting. If this seems a dire harbinger you're not alone:

This is a battle of two teams who are really struggling on the offensive end lately and it might be ugly, for our sake let’s hope its not as ugly as Penn State’s 38-33 win last night over Illinois.

From The Barn predicts a seven point Michigan win, FWIW; it's one Michigan must have if they're going to make the tournament.