win probabilities

Last week certainly simplified things. The leaders are done and in the legends we're left with:

Michigan:

• Iowa 84%
• Ohio State 38%

Nebraska:

• Minnesota 91%
• Iowa 83%

Michigan:

• 2-0 32%
• 1-1 58%
• 0-2 10%

Nebraska

• 2-0 76%
• 1-1 22%
• 0-2 2%

Probability of winning the division: Nebraska 91%, Michigan 9%. That may sound grim but I'll bet it's a lot better than Mathlete's odds of winning on Saturday after NW got that last first down.

For what it's worth, Nebraska would be a one-point favorite over Wisconsin and Wisconsin would be favored by two over Michigan. At Sagarin Nebraska would be favored by half a point and M/W would be a toss-up.

Time to run these again.

Needless to say, this past weekend wasn't kind to Michigan on this front, as Nebraska dodged a bullet and except for Penn State the teams they'll face the rest of the way posted poor results.

The usual caveats apply--this assumes the probabilites are independent for each game, and while that becomes a better approximation as each week goes by it's completely ignoring (among other things) the possibility of a significant injury to a key player. That increases the likelihood of an extreme result and means the division-winning chances for the less likely teams are a little better than they appear here.

Massey win probabilities for the remainder of the season:

Michigan:

• Northwestern 64%
• Iowa 80%
• Ohio State 36%

Nebraska:

• Penn State 67%
• Minnesota 92%
• Iowa 77%

Northwestern:

• Michigan 36%
• Michigan State 44%
• Illinois 95%

That works out to:

Michigan:

• 3-0 18%
• 2-1 48%
• 1-2 29%
• 0-3 5%

Nebraska

• 3-0 47%
• 2-1 42%
• 1-2 10%
• 0-3 1%

Northwestern

• 3-0 15%
• 2-1 47%
• 1-2 36%
• 0-3 2%

Chances of winning the division are now 85% Nebraska, 13% Michigan, 2% Northwestern.

There are some bizarre possibilities still out there, like a 5-way tie at 4-4 (either Minnesota or MSU has to lose at least 5, since they still have to play each other). None of those possibilities let Minnesota or MSU win the division; they would always lose the divisional-record tiebreaker.

On the leaders side it's:

Wisconsin:

• Indiana 70%
• Ohio State 46%
• Penn State 51%

Indiana:

• Wisconsin 30%
• Penn State 27%
• Purdue 60%

Odds of winning the division are 77% Wisconsin, 23% Indiana.

Everyone else has been eliminated. There's still a possibility of a 3-way tie if Wisconsin loses out, Indiana loses both non-Wisconsin games, and Purdue or Illinois wins out. If it's Illinois they'll have lost to the other two and Indiana's win over Wisconsin gives them the tiebreaker and a trip to the championship game as a 5-7 team. If it's Purdue, the three teams will have split with each other, Indiana will be ruled out because they'll have the worst record in the division, and Wisconsin will then win the tiebreaker thanks to their win over Purdue.

I posted this on one of the weekend threads but the Massey site has now been updated with Saturday's results so here's a new version. Massey win probabilities for the remainder of the season:

Michigan:

• Minnesota 78%
• Northwestern 68%
• Iowa 81%
• Ohio State 37%

Nebraska:

• Michigan State 51%
• Penn State 72%
• Minnesota 89%
• Iowa 71%

That works out to:

Michigan:

• 4-0 16%
• 3-1 43%
• 2-2 31%
• 1-3 9%
• 0-4 1%

Nebraska

• 4-0 23%
• 3-1 44%
• 2-2 27%
• 1-3 6%
• 0-4 0%

Chances of winning the division are now 71% Nebraska, 29% Michigan, ignoring the  unlikely possiblity of someone else stepping in (I'm not going to run the numbers but eyeballing it I'd say Northwestern's chances are about 2-3%).