...says Denzel Valentine of Big Ten Tourney favorite MSU, which is 5-7 in its last 12 games. Cumong, man.
First of all, this is not to proclaim that D-Mo WILL go pro, only to state what the effects MIGHT BE IF HE DOES. This is an analytical approach to what next year might look like without D-Mo IF he chooses the NBA.
EFFECTS OF LOSING MARGINAL PGS
We all know the effects of losing average PGs. We lost three two years ago (Merritt, Lee, and Grady) and our offense went down in flames. Most noticably, our 3PT% went down. Our team chemistry seemed to go down the toilet too. So, three areas of effect: 3PT%, chemistry, and overall offense.
Merritt was over 40% for his career, but shot only 51 3PTs.
Lee was at 36% his senior season, and shot 52 attempts that year.
The team total in 08-09 was 920 3PAs, and in 09-10: 760 3PAs.
Team clearly got fewer 3PAs the following year. The team also went down in shooting percentage. Correlation, but I believe this stems from causation. We lost ~100 attempts, which were falling at a 37% clip. That's about 100 points. Those points could have been made up by higher averages from other players, but we went from 67 to 64 PPG. That, over 33 games, makes 100 points of difference. So, in all those close games, the team lost points by missing the above average 3 point shooting of the PGs.
Luckily, this doesn't really matter in terms of D-Mos RAW shooting numbers. He doesn't shoot the three very well. But, he does set up the 3 for others very well.
I'll be back next time to look at the other aspects. (This took more time than I thought to write up...)
[please tell me if you think that these stats need to be manipulated better. I’m still working on the ideas behind these concepts, and any ideas are welcome. This is meant to be a look to his likely stats next year through stats and deduction. I will continue to try and do this with other players and units as the off-season starts. Any ideas for further analysis helps.]
He’s already set the record for most rushing yards in a season, on a 6.8 yards/attempt average. Let’s admit that he’s most likely not going to do that again, although I’d bet his average will stay around the same. Because he’s a more athletic version of Pat White, I’ll use those stats to try and show what I think Denard will do on the ground.
Pat White had 197 attempts for 1335 yards at 6.8 YPC his junior year. I would imagine that Denard would have about the same stats. So, we’ll get a drop in yardage by about 100 yards, but this will be made up by his throwing stats I’d assume.
Other things to note:
- Denard still does not scramble very often. Vince Young, Pat White, and others did this much more and were able to get a lot of yards of scrambles. As Denard gets another year under his belt, I’d expect much more scrambling and bigger gains. This will, of course, help open the passing lanes.
- Denard runs the iso and zone read a lot. I don’t know how many times White ran it, or V. Young, but I think Denard has many more designed runs than any other QB has had. This will most likely get cut down because of his injuries this year, Dee Hart coming in, and his passing game getting better. With that being said, on to the…
(I wanted to take passing stats from players who are like Denard. I believe these are the closest guys to him.)
THE LONG BALL:
As most of us know, Denard doesn't throw the long ball as well as we'd like him to. He does not use much touch yet, and this is something that we can expect growth on in the off-season. He throws the short passes decently, but without the deep ball threat he's still not 100% effective. There have been great throws, but they are too few. The long ball will be one development, but along with throwing the ball deep, we get a much higher chance of INTs. Based on this, I wanted to try and predict Denard's INT totals for next year from other prolific running QBs. Below are the stats and their significance.
Int thrown/100 passes by year in the league:
Denard is at 4.3 INT/100 attempts
If you look at the stats you’ll see that Denard’s average is about where V. Young was in his sophomore year. Young then made an impressive downswing of one less interception thrown every 100 passes. However, when you look at the total averages there isn’t much of a jump from sophomore to junior year.
Dixon’s stats are the ones which screw this up, so if you throw out that outlier you do get a decent jump in INT/100 passes.
WHAT THIS MEANS:
Assuming Dixon’s stats are a outlier, we can expect Denard to throw about 1 less interception per 100 attempts. He’s going to have about 250 attempts this season so that’s 2.5 less interceptions next year. Assuming he throws 300 passes, that’s 9 interceptions next year. (Vince Young had 10 the season he won his Heisman.)
Denard should have around 1400 rushing yards at about 7 YPC. I believe he will have less designed runs, but more sneaks. He will also throw about 9 INTs next year, when I believe he'll have just shy of 300 attempts.
I would like to throw out my thanks to ALL supporters of this blogging community (minus trolls). You all make the day go by much better, and give me an excuse not to do HomeWork (College Kid speaking). While my teachers and parents may hate you, I enjoy the things you all bring up (most of the time). However, I would like to highlight a few people who have done exceptional jobs and thank them for all the work they have put into this blog. Here goes.
Note: spellin is not to gud; sory.
- BoyzindaPahokee: all the “every snap videos”
- Mathlete: PAN metrics
- Chris of Danger: Videos for Brian’s picture Pages
- THE_KNOWLEDGE: visions from the future
- Tim: press reports
- TomVH: scouting
- Misogopon: All the great articles
- EnjoyLife: Fremau index
- Communist Football: Commie ball stats
- MonuMental: Wallpapers
- JamieMac: Gambling advice
- WolveInExile: BCS Standings
- EnjoyLife: TOM recaps (and ST)
- StuBob: ugly game of the week
- Brian: Nuf said
[Ed-M: What are these numbers? Returning players on 2-deep? Next year's upperclassmen? Whatever: to the board with you]
edit: fuck it, see below. Much better stated.
I am sorry for not writing what I was using down. I DERPed up. I am doing this by Varsity letters earned by returning players.
For paragraph 2 I will state this: for career back-ups I awarded a varsity letter only if they are an upper-classman. This was to differentiate between a returning sophomore who only played (for example) 3 games and crap time, and who hasn't gotten enough lifting time in and a 5th year returning senior (who you could say would equal Banks I guess, so it's still off). The thought was that a returning 5th year who was a career back-up would only get 1 vasity letter awarded beause they didn't do much in PT, but they did get scheme training, and weight training.
*We run a 3-3-5, not a 4-3. Thus, we’re under a player here.
**For convenience I’m putting the Spur as a WLB, not an additional safety, for this metric.
*** based on the metric below, the average is 5.9 years of PT.
Complicated crap that you might not care about:
If you shift the numbers on DL to a three man front, it gets really complicated. Whose production do you take out? The other team's least or most experienced player? I can't think of a metric for this other than AVG EXP/player/3 DL positions. If you use that, the average EXP for DL is about 5.9 years. If anyone has any better ideas for this metric, tell me.
WHAT THIS MEANS:
You’ll see that our DL is more experienced than average (per player, not unit) while the rest of our D will be just around the normal experience level. In Fact, our secondary will be more experienced than the average BT secondary. This makes sense.
- We lose 1 player in the secondary: Rogers. Not much of a loss, but a significant loss when you think about PT. Counter that with Woolfolk, a 5th year Senior taking Roger's place, and you don't lose any experience.
- We don't lose any other players in the secondary; everyone comes back with experience
- After such decimation for two years, we should have expected this. It only makes sense that teams will tend back to the norm.
The fact that the DD argument will no longer be tenable next year (due to us having MORE!!! experience than an average BT team) is a good thing. While we can no longer cling to that as a legitimate excuse for RR, we can now bring up our expectations.
- DD is no longer a valid excuse. It's premise was that we lost experience; we now will have average experience. If low PT was the reason for a poor defense, a middling PT/experience factor should give us a middle-of-the-pack defense.
- Our D SHOULD be middle of the pack, based on the PT logic. I've argued from day one that a middle of the pack D would give us a shot at the BT title and if our O is #1 (which it could be, but depends on TOM) a shot at the MNC.
- We should shoot for the BT title next year. If our offense continues taking the strides it has, and we stop this TOM BS our D should finally be good enough for this to be a goal.
Table of contents:
I. Basics of scraping/link to Brian’s thoughts
III. Demens’ Pass D.
IV. Demens scraping
V. Final thoughts
For the second one notice how Kovaks tells Floyd to get up to the LOS and Floyd says “Yeah, I’m gonna F*#K this play up.” He does, because he takes the outside shoulder of the lead blocker. However, that is not enough; Demens also scrapes to the play. In the first play Mouton doesn’t contain (even though Demens scrapes) and it gets a…TD. [For a more full discussion see the links above. Many much smarter people than I have well thought out ideas there.]
My belief is that a large amount of us here think Mouton might have issues playing with Demens because he had to play to tackle instead of play his assignment when Obi was in. Well, playing to tackle instead of your assignment sure sounds like someone who will lose contain. Also, see this. So, here's that nice little chart:
|Loss of Contain||Mouton||2:25||Picture paged|
This is only one half, but it should become clear that Mouton has had trouble holding contain. I’m sure someone could do a much better analysis on this, and I would applaud any such investigation. However, with the data at hand, we’ve shown that Mouton is not that good at holding contain. The small # of bad contain plays wouldn’t be an issue, except that Iowa got 35 yards on them! [after looking back, that’s not outstanding, but it is a first down each time.
This failure to contain is not a “who is around me” problem. It is a fundamentals problem. It doesn’t matter who is around you, you still need to know your fundamentals. If Ray Lewis were playing Mouton would still need to tackle. This is no different. Contain is just something you need to do, regardless of who is around you.
- There might be other issues about him playing with Demens instead of Obi, but I just can’t see any. What most people have been saying is that Mouton plays to make the tackle instead of doing his job. That sounds a lot like missing your contain assignment to me.
III. Demens Pass D:
+1 for pass break-up. (4th play)
+.5 (12th play)
(no +/- but on this picture paged play Brian gives Demens credit)
+.5 (18th play)
+.5 (25th play)
-1 (38th play)
-1 (35th play)
+1 (37th play)
Total: +1.5 Not terrible. Was this the thing that was holding him back?
My Iowa UFR:
+1 (4th play. Blasts the receiver after the catch to break up the pass.)
+1 (The touchdown play at 3:05. Knocks the TE down as Avery derps up.)
+1 (starts at 3:20. Demens comes up on the bootleg. Notices the RB blocking and gets on his horse. Brian gave a +.5 but I believe that because Demens came in so fast, he knew exactly what his assignment was and played it fully.)
-1 (at 4:10). Demens leaves his TE open, even tho the pass goes over his head.
-1 (at 6:39) Missed the RB/drop-down read coming out of the backfield late.
-1 (9:00) Bit on the PA. He did this again on the next play, which was the same play-call. I’m not sure if he’s just biting a lot or if it’s his job to do that? Is this some new Defensive thing?
+1 (on that play where Avery missed the 3&8 tackle, which effectively ended the game) Demens was all over his guy when the pass happened.
Noticed that they put in Roh on a few downs at MLB. I’m assuming this is to get more speed on the field against the pass.
+1 total. Well, I'm more negative than Brian. Told you.
Overall: nothing really bad here. I don't believe this was what held him back. He should be at least acceptable in pass D. Dispell all rumors.
IV. DEMENS SCRAPING:
Based again, off of the multiple UFR from Iowa and previous games.
Iowa: +3 on scraping, although I’m a negative guy.
Penn State: +2 on scraping.
When I find a better way to format, I’ll add in the plays too. Still, this is at least decent, which is better than Obi was playing. More analysis at bottom.
V. SCRAPE/CONTAIN FINAL THOUGHTS:
Demens is a good scraper. Obi obviously wasn’t. An upgrade in playing ability and potential for next year, when we will return a decent starter, instead of a player who would have had no experience.
Contain is a huge issue. When Mouton lost contain he gave up a first down every time. This is a momentum killer for a few, rather obvious reasons.
- 1.) It allows a first down on a third and ten draw.
- 2.) it destroys team fatigue.
- 3.) It just sucks. Nuff said.
Can we fix this? How long will GERG coach this and how long until it’s fixed? I don’t know, but I’m sure the debate will continue. Mouton and Obi were in the system for 3 years and they didn’t scrape/contain this year. However, Demens is a RS Soph (3 years) and learned how to do it. Contrary evidence=I don’t know.
What does this mean for next year? I don’t know. Really. It depends on the aforementioned “Can we fix this.” I think we’ll be better because we’ll have Demens instead of Obi, but if Mouton outplayed the other guys, doesn’t that mean we regress in that department. I’ll assume that Cam Gordon (who might take Mouton’s old spot?) is faster than Mouton which might help, but I really just don’t know. Debate away.
The other thing that I’d notice about Demens is that he bites a lot. Those PA are going to kill him. Just wait, OSU and Wiscy are going to have fun with this. Let’s hope he gets better by that time.
Ok, what happened? Does anyone know? (If you don't know don't post.) I can't check the post-game RR report; could someone with knowledge after that tell me?
[edit: already posted here: http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/what-happened-denard]. Mods, please take this off.