the season has truly begun now
[Ed-M: What are these numbers? Returning players on 2-deep? Next year's upperclassmen? Whatever: to the board with you]
edit: fuck it, see below. Much better stated.
I am sorry for not writing what I was using down. I DERPed up. I am doing this by Varsity letters earned by returning players.
For paragraph 2 I will state this: for career back-ups I awarded a varsity letter only if they are an upper-classman. This was to differentiate between a returning sophomore who only played (for example) 3 games and crap time, and who hasn't gotten enough lifting time in and a 5th year returning senior (who you could say would equal Banks I guess, so it's still off). The thought was that a returning 5th year who was a career back-up would only get 1 vasity letter awarded beause they didn't do much in PT, but they did get scheme training, and weight training.
*We run a 3-3-5, not a 4-3. Thus, we’re under a player here.
**For convenience I’m putting the Spur as a WLB, not an additional safety, for this metric.
*** based on the metric below, the average is 5.9 years of PT.
Complicated crap that you might not care about:
If you shift the numbers on DL to a three man front, it gets really complicated. Whose production do you take out? The other team's least or most experienced player? I can't think of a metric for this other than AVG EXP/player/3 DL positions. If you use that, the average EXP for DL is about 5.9 years. If anyone has any better ideas for this metric, tell me.
WHAT THIS MEANS:
You’ll see that our DL is more experienced than average (per player, not unit) while the rest of our D will be just around the normal experience level. In Fact, our secondary will be more experienced than the average BT secondary. This makes sense.
- We lose 1 player in the secondary: Rogers. Not much of a loss, but a significant loss when you think about PT. Counter that with Woolfolk, a 5th year Senior taking Roger's place, and you don't lose any experience.
- We don't lose any other players in the secondary; everyone comes back with experience
- After such decimation for two years, we should have expected this. It only makes sense that teams will tend back to the norm.
The fact that the DD argument will no longer be tenable next year (due to us having MORE!!! experience than an average BT team) is a good thing. While we can no longer cling to that as a legitimate excuse for RR, we can now bring up our expectations.
- DD is no longer a valid excuse. It's premise was that we lost experience; we now will have average experience. If low PT was the reason for a poor defense, a middling PT/experience factor should give us a middle-of-the-pack defense.
- Our D SHOULD be middle of the pack, based on the PT logic. I've argued from day one that a middle of the pack D would give us a shot at the BT title and if our O is #1 (which it could be, but depends on TOM) a shot at the MNC.
- We should shoot for the BT title next year. If our offense continues taking the strides it has, and we stop this TOM BS our D should finally be good enough for this to be a goal.
After watching our defense struggle yet again this season I couldn't help but think about a good (not great) big 10 defensive player who in high school had great grades, bloodlines and wanted to play for Michigan and yet couldn't get a scholarship offer for reasons i have never understood..
I live in Northern Ohio and in 2005 a very good friend of mine's son set an Ohio high school record scoring five touchdowns in a playoff game. He also played some cornerback when needed. As a season ticket holder who did a small amount of recruiting for Michigan in the early 90's I started bringing the boy up to games and alerted my contacts to take a look at him. In 2005 he was invited to several camps (Michigan included) and began to get scholarship offers. By 2006 he had received offers from every MAC and Big East program as well as lower tier Pac 10 and ACC schools but nothing from Michigan. After the 2006 season he was invited back to Michigan's camp when they were trying out QBs and he basically shut down every wideout they placed in front of him but still no offer. His dad, an ex-Louiseville Cardinal DB made it known that they were growing tired of the recruitment process and would commit early in 2007. Michigan was #1 on their list but they weren't going to wait his entire senior year to see if an offer would be forthcoming. I again contacted the football department and told them what I knew about the kid - good grades, good family and outstanding athlete - basically everything Michigan wanted in a player and yet nothing. No offer, no communication - nothing. So when Northwestern offered early in his senior year they accepted and shut down all recruiting. After that I called and asked why no offer - all I was told was "he's 5"10 and we want taller corners" and that was the end of it.
Today Jordan Mabin is a starting DB for Northwestern. If you remember, he was played especially well against us (motivated maybe?) and I cant help but wonder how we would look if we had bothered to offer a tremendous athlete with good grades who happened to be "only" 5'10.
Jai Eugene is the root of all of our problems...he is the Antonio Bass of the defense... a unicorn... galloping from our grasp leaving trails of what ifs on the wind
GERG did well with this adjustment. Troy played shut down ball. This allowed us to rush more (the TD on the blitz was a gamble on Mich's part...Williams was not going to cover Moeaki regardless).
Break out game by BG - I think in part because of the firmer secondary.
Yes Williams should have helped Warren on that bomb. But Woolfolk is the new CB. Please no injuries vs. Delaware State!!
I can't remember when Michigan has had a good secondary in recent memory. Is it just me, or has our secondary been sub par for a long time? Maybe I'm missing something. I know, that this last Saturday they were going up against two of the best receivers in the country, but I must say I had flashbacks to The Horror and other games with the secondary's performance. Maybe some input from more informed observers would help. Thanks.