bowl

I frequently use S&P+ ratings from Football Outsiders for betting purposes against Vegas spreads (from Bovada).  For the bowl games, an interested application of this data is a "Game Watchability" ranking (as requested by 707Oxford).

To that end, here are the bowl games ranked by Total S&P Margin, essentially showing where the best combination of teams are playing each other.  Interestingly enough, Michigan-Florida State comes in just ahead of the OSU-Clemson playoff semifinal at 2nd overall.

An alternate view that I use for betting purposes (or pick em) compares the S&P Margin between favorite and underdog against the Vegas lines and look for higher discrepancies.  The columns to the right will show these differences, and rank the games by confidence according to that margin.  This is applicable for betting/picking against the spread of course.  

Ole Miss Rebels vs. TCU Horned Frogs at 12:30.

At the Georgia Dome.

Ole Miss Leaders:

Passing: Wallace - 219-358, 3085 yds, 22 tds

Rushing: Walton - 98 car, 583 yds, 5 tds

Receiving: Sanders - 39 rec, 696 yds, 6 tds

TCU Leaders:

Passing: Boykin - 279-461, 3714 yds, 30 tds

Rushing: Green - 111 car, 854 yds, 8 tds

Receving: Doctson - 59 rec, 959 yds, 9 tds

It is on ESPN.

Schools that sold out of its bowl tickets: Auburn, FSU, Vanderbilt, Michigan State, Stanford, Rutgers, Notre Dame, Missouri, Texas

More schools that sold out of its bowl tickets: Alabama Oregon, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Bowling Green.

Schools by % of allotted tickets sold: Iowa 95%, Louisville 88%, Baylor 71% Maryland 70%, Utah State 67%, Kansas St 55%

Schools by allotted % of bowl tickets sold: Michigan 51% LSU 50%, Ohio State 44%, Wisconsin 32%

Minnesota has sold only 29% of their bowl ticket allotment.

BONUS: Sparty Inferiority complex sighting

This one is going to be messy.  Huge blizzard taking place, probably favors the team who makes fewer mistakes (ie: not the Lions).

While a thread below considers what bowl opponent IS likely for UM, what bowl we SHOULD be going to?

Although some uncertainty remains, most people expect NU and NEB to go to the CapOne and Outback Bowls over UM.  The reason is that the B1G sends a team to the Capitol One (or Outback) if it has two more wins (or two fewer losses) than its competitor.*

WIth this rule, however, teams with far easier out-of-conference (OOC) games are much more likely to win the higher  bowl bids. And this year, unfortunately, UM had a much tougher schedule.  It played its toughest OOC games on the road vs. teams with an average Sagarin PREDICTOR rank  of #2, both on the road.  NEB and NU played vs. opponents with an average rank of about #43, including one home game.**

Partly as a result, UM has by far the highest Sagarin rank (UM #24, NEB #29, NU #38).   Indeed, even according  to the final BCS rankings, UM clearly would be ranked above NU (and probably NEB).  So, it should be going either to the CapOne or Outback bowl, right?

Maybe not.

Imagine what would happen If the B1G were unified once again, without the unfair divisions.  Then, if it still wanted a title game, perhaps it should be sending the 2 teams with the highest BCS ranks.  So, UM would have played NEB for the title.  Um would not have to play on the road, like the last game.  It would have to play not with its 3^rd string QB.  It would have Devin Gardner.  And it probably would have Denard Robinson  In fact, playing vs. a NEB team that just gave up 70 points to Wisc, Robinson would likely set the all-time NCAA QB rushing record in a big UM win.

But then, like now, UM would probably not going to the CapOne or Outback bowl. 

In this alternate universe where the B1G has rational rules, UM would be going to the Rose Bowl.

_________

*These are the only rules I could find on the web, as reported by Rittenberg in 2011.  So, I am assuming the rules have not changed.  http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/39509/reviewing-b1gs-bowl-selec...

**I report the Sagarin PREDICTOR rankings because these are the ones most likely to predict actual game outcomes.  Here are Sagarin PREDICTOR rank and rating, average Sagarin rank of the top 2 OOC opponents and B1G record for each team.

UM #24 82.05   TOP 2 OOC OPPONENTS; ROAD ND #1 AND ALA#3 (#1-2 BCS), B1G 6-2

NEB  #29 80.04  HOME ARKANSAS STATE #54, ROAD UCLA #19, B1G 7-2

NU #38 78.29  HOME VANDY #35 ROAD SYRACUSE #50, B1G 5-3

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

Jerry Palm released his 2012-2013 bowl projections that include Michigan (Big Ten Champ) facing Oregon (Pac-12 # 2, USC gets picked for the MNCG).

Obligatory statement about the utter ridiculousness of predicting bowl games before a single game of the season has been played?  Check.

The reason I bring this up (as opposed to other prognosticators) is that last year around this time, he had Michigan in a BCS bowl (the Fiesta) and most people were taken aback at his "silly" (but not so silly looking back on it) faith in Michigan.

And it's not just that he correctly predicted Michigan into a BCS bowl, he also predicted Michigan's losses to MSU and Iowa.

At the very least, it's nice to see us in the conversation for high-profile bowls, championships, etc.  You know, how it should be.