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Bowl Game Picks/Betting/Watchability by S&P+ Ratings

By goblueram — December 8th, 2016 at 1:50 PM — 9 comments
Filed under:
  • MGoBoard
  • betting
  • bowl
  • football
  • Pick
  • S&P+
  • Watchability

I frequently use S&P+ ratings from Football Outsiders for betting purposes against Vegas spreads (from Bovada).  For the bowl games, an interested application of this data is a "Game Watchability" ranking (as requested by 707Oxford).

To that end, here are the bowl games ranked by Total S&P Margin, essentially showing where the best combination of teams are playing each other.  Interestingly enough, Michigan-Florida State comes in just ahead of the OSU-Clemson playoff semifinal at 2nd overall.

Date Favorite Underdog Vegas Spread Favorite S&P+ Margin Underdog
S&P+ Margin

Total S&P Value

Total S&P Value Rank

S&P Spread S&P - Vegas Spread S&P - Vegas Spread
(Abs. Val)
Bet On Bet Confidence Rank
12/31/16 15:00 Alabama Washington 17 31.5 21.8 53.3 1 9.7 -7.3 7.3 Underdog 5
12/30/16 20:00 Michigan Florida State 7 31.3 19.5 50.8 2 11.8 4.8 4.8 Favorite 10
12/31/16 19:00 Ohio State Clemson 3 27.6 22.7 50.3 3 4.9 1.9 1.9 Favorite 20
01/02/17 17:00 USC Penn State 7 20.5 17 37.5 4 3.5 -3.5 3.5 Underdog 17
01/02/17 13:00 Wisconsin Western Michigan 7.5 15.8 7.9 23.7 5 7.9 0.4 0.4 Favorite 31
12/20/16 19:00 Western Kentucky Memphis 4.5 16 7.3 23.3 6 8.7 4.2 4.2 Favorite 12
12/29/16 21:00 Colorado Oklahoma State 3 13.4 9.4 22.8 7 4 1 1 Favorite 26
12/30/16 14:00 Stanford North Carolina 3.5 11.3 11.1 22.4 8 0.2 -3.3 3.3 Underdog 18
12/28/16 17:30 Miami-FL West Virginia 3 16.1 5.1 21.2 9 11 8 8 Favorite 3
01/02/17 13:00 Florida Iowa 2.5 7.2 11.9 19.1 10 -4.7 -7.2 7.2 Underdog 6
12/17/16 15:30 Houston San Diego State 3 10.1 6.5 16.6 11 3.6 0.6 0.6 Favorite 29
12/17/16 17:30 Toledo Appalachian State 1 8.1 8.4 16.5 12 -0.3 -1.3 1.3 Underdog 23
12/27/16 19:00 Washington State Minnesota 7 8.3 7.8 16.1 13 0.5 -6.5 6.5 Underdog 8
12/28/16 14:00 Pittsburgh Northwestern 5 10.5 5.4 15.9 14 5.1 0.1 0.1 Favorite 34
12/30/16 15:30 Tennessee Nebraska 3 7.1 8.2 15.3 15 -1.1 -4.1 4.1 Underdog 14
12/27/16 22:15 Boise State Baylor 7.5 16 -1.4 14.6 16 17.4 9.9 9.9 Favorite 1
12/29/16 17:30 Virginia Tech Arkansas 7 10.8 3.6 14.4 17 7.2 0.2 0.2 Favorite 33
12/28/16 20:30 Utah Indiana 8 7.3 5.4 12.7 18 1.9 -6.1 6.1 Underdog 9
12/27/16 15:30 Temple Wake Forest 13 12.9 -1.2 11.7 19 14.1 1.1 1.1 Favorite 25
12/26/16 17:00 NC State Vanderbilt 4 9.7 -1.9 7.8 20 11.6 7.6 7.6 Favorite 4
12/21/16 21:00 BYU Wyoming 8.5 8.4 -0.8 7.6 21 9.2 0.7 0.7 Favorite 28
12/30/16 12:00 Georgia TCU 1 -0.6 7.1 6.5 22 -7.7 -8.7 8.7 Underdog 2
12/31/16 11:00 Georgia Tech Kentucky 3.5 5.3 0.2 5.5 23 5.1 1.6 1.6 Favorite 22
12/22/16 19:00 Colorado State Idaho 13.5 10.9 -7.2 3.7 24 18.1 4.6 4.6 Favorite 11
12/19/16 14:30 Tulsa Central Michigan 11.5 5.8 -3.9 1.9 25 9.7 -1.8 1.8 Underdog 21
12/29/16 14:00 South Florida South Carolina 10.5 7.5 -6.9 0.6 26 14.4 3.9 3.9 Favorite 15
12/26/16 11:00 Mississippi State Miami-OH 12.5 3 -2.8 0.2 27 5.8 -6.7 6.7 Underdog 7
12/23/16 20:00 Troy Ohio 3.5 -0.5 -4.5 -5 28 4 0.5 0.5 Favorite 30
12/23/16 13:00 Old Dominion Eastern Michigan 3.5 -0.3 -4.9 -5.2 29 4.6 1.1 1.1 Favorite 24
12/30/16 17:30 Air Force South Alabama 12.5 1.6 -7.1 -5.5 30 8.7 -3.8 3.8 Underdog 16
12/17/16 17:30 Central Florida Arkansas State 6 -0.8 -5.9 -6.7 31 5.1 -0.9 0.9 Underdog 27
12/26/16 14:30 Maryland Boston College 2 -5.3 -5.3 -10.6 32 0 -2 2 Underdog 19
12/17/16 14:00 New Mexico UTSA 7 -1.9 -9.2 -11.1 33 7.3 0.3 0.3 Favorite 32
12/17/16 21:00 Southern Miss UL-Lafayette 3.5 -3.3 -10.9 -14.2 34 7.6 4.1 4.1 Favorite 13

An alternate view that I use for betting purposes (or pick em) compares the S&P Margin between favorite and underdog against the Vegas lines and look for higher discrepancies.  The columns to the right will show these differences, and rank the games by confidence according to that margin.  This is applicable for betting/picking against the spread of course.  

Date Favorite Underdog Vegas Spread Favorite S&P+ Margin Underdog
S&P+ Margin
Total S&P Value Total S&P Value Rank S&P Spread S&P - Vegas Spread S&P - Vegas Spread
(Abs. Val)

Bet On

Bet Confidence Rank

12/27/16 22:15 Boise State Baylor 7.5 16 -1.4 14.6 16 17.4 9.9 9.9 Favorite 1
12/30/16 12:00 Georgia TCU 1 -0.6 7.1 6.5 22 -7.7 -8.7 8.7 Underdog 2
12/28/16 17:30 Miami-FL West Virginia 3 16.1 5.1 21.2 9 11 8 8 Favorite 3
12/26/16 17:00 NC State Vanderbilt 4 9.7 -1.9 7.8 20 11.6 7.6 7.6 Favorite 4
12/31/16 15:00 Alabama Washington 17 31.5 21.8 53.3 1 9.7 -7.3 7.3 Underdog 5
01/02/17 13:00 Florida Iowa 2.5 7.2 11.9 19.1 10 -4.7 -7.2 7.2 Underdog 6
12/26/16 11:00 Mississippi State Miami-OH 12.5 3 -2.8 0.2 27 5.8 -6.7 6.7 Underdog 7
12/27/16 19:00 Washington State Minnesota 7 8.3 7.8 16.1 13 0.5 -6.5 6.5 Underdog 8
12/28/16 20:30 Utah Indiana 8 7.3 5.4 12.7 18 1.9 -6.1 6.1 Underdog 9
12/30/16 20:00 Michigan Florida State 7 31.3 19.5 50.8 2 11.8 4.8 4.8 Favorite 10
12/22/16 19:00 Colorado State Idaho 13.5 10.9 -7.2 3.7 24 18.1 4.6 4.6 Favorite 11
12/20/16 19:00 Western Kentucky Memphis 4.5 16 7.3 23.3 6 8.7 4.2 4.2 Favorite 12
12/17/16 21:00 Southern Miss UL-Lafayette 3.5 -3.3 -10.9 -14.2 34 7.6 4.1 4.1 Favorite 13
12/30/16 15:30 Tennessee Nebraska 3 7.1 8.2 15.3 15 -1.1 -4.1 4.1 Underdog 14
12/29/16 14:00 South Florida South Carolina 10.5 7.5 -6.9 0.6 26 14.4 3.9 3.9 Favorite 15
12/30/16 17:30 Air Force South Alabama 12.5 1.6 -7.1 -5.5 30 8.7 -3.8 3.8 Underdog 16
01/02/17 17:00 USC Penn State 7 20.5 17 37.5 4 3.5 -3.5 3.5 Underdog 17
12/30/16 14:00 Stanford North Carolina 3.5 11.3 11.1 22.4 8 0.2 -3.3 3.3 Underdog 18
12/26/16 14:30 Maryland Boston College 2 -5.3 -5.3 -10.6 32 0 -2 2 Underdog 19
12/31/16 19:00 Ohio State Clemson 3 27.6 22.7 50.3 3 4.9 1.9 1.9 Favorite 20
12/19/16 14:30 Tulsa Central Michigan 11.5 5.8 -3.9 1.9 25 9.7 -1.8 1.8 Underdog 21
12/31/16 11:00 Georgia Tech Kentucky 3.5 5.3 0.2 5.5 23 5.1 1.6 1.6 Favorite 22
12/17/16 17:30 Toledo Appalachian State 1 8.1 8.4 16.5 12 -0.3 -1.3 1.3 Underdog 23
12/23/16 13:00 Old Dominion Eastern Michigan 3.5 -0.3 -4.9 -5.2 29 4.6 1.1 1.1 Favorite 24
12/27/16 15:30 Temple Wake Forest 13 12.9 -1.2 11.7 19 14.1 1.1 1.1 Favorite 25
12/29/16 21:00 Colorado Oklahoma State 3 13.4 9.4 22.8 7 4 1 1 Favorite 26
12/17/16 17:30 Central Florida Arkansas State 6 -0.8 -5.9 -6.7 31 5.1 -0.9 0.9 Underdog 27
12/21/16 21:00 BYU Wyoming 8.5 8.4 -0.8 7.6 21 9.2 0.7 0.7 Favorite 28
12/17/16 15:30 Houston San Diego State 3 10.1 6.5 16.6 11 3.6 0.6 0.6 Favorite 29
12/23/16 20:00 Troy Ohio 3.5 -0.5 -4.5 -5 28 4 0.5 0.5 Favorite 30
01/02/17 13:00 Wisconsin Western Michigan 7.5 15.8 7.9 23.7 5 7.9 0.4 0.4 Favorite 31
12/17/16 14:00 New Mexico UTSA 7 -1.9 -9.2 -11.1 33 7.3 0.3 0.3 Favorite 32
12/29/16 17:30 Virginia Tech Arkansas 7 10.8 3.6 14.4 17 7.2 0.2 0.2 Favorite 33
12/28/16 14:00 Pittsburgh Northwestern 5 10.5 5.4 15.9 14 5.1 0.1 0.1 Favorite 34

 

  • 9 comments

Peach Bowl Open Thread

By Padog — December 31st, 2014 at 1:28 PM — 121 comments
Filed under:
  • MGoBoard
  • bowl
  • football

Ole Miss Rebels vs. TCU Horned Frogs at 12:30.

At the Georgia Dome.

Ole Miss Leaders:

Passing: Wallace - 219-358, 3085 yds, 22 tds

Rushing: Walton - 98 car, 583 yds, 5 tds

Receiving: Sanders - 39 rec, 696 yds, 6 tds

TCU Leaders:

Passing: Boykin - 279-461, 3714 yds, 30 tds

Rushing: Green - 111 car, 854 yds, 8 tds

Receving: Doctson - 59 rec, 959 yds, 9 tds

It is on ESPN.

  • 121 comments

Darren Rovell: Amount of Bowl Tickets sold by school

By TheJoker — December 27th, 2013 at 3:18 PM — 39 comments
Filed under:
  • MGoBoard
  • bowl
  • buffalo wild wings
  • darren
  • football
  • rovell
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Darren Rovell put out some statistics on the percentages of bowl tickets sold by each school.
 
 
darren rovell ‏@darrenrovell 31m

Schools that sold out of its bowl tickets: Auburn, FSU, Vanderbilt, Michigan State, Stanford, Rutgers, Notre Dame, Missouri, Texas

 

darren rovell ‏@darrenrovell27m

More schools that sold out of its bowl tickets: Alabama Oregon, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Bowling Green.

 

darren rovell ‏@darrenrovell26m

Schools by % of allotted tickets sold: Iowa 95%, Louisville 88%, Baylor 71% Maryland 70%, Utah State 67%, Kansas St 55%

 

darren rovell ‏@darrenrovell21m

Schools by allotted % of bowl tickets sold: Michigan 51% LSU 50%, Ohio State 44%, Wisconsin 32%

 

darren rovell ‏@darrenrovell17m

Minnesota has sold only 29% of their bowl ticket allotment.

 

 

BONUS: Sparty Inferiority complex sighting

 

Chet Lemonade ‏@AdSal4414m

@darrenrovell @Rational_Tigers how about MSU, Rovell? They're kind of in a bigger bowl than U of M, no?

  • 39 comments

OT - Lions vs. Eagles Open Thread

By TheFrigz — December 8th, 2013 at 2:06 PM — 326 comments
Filed under:
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  • bowl
  • detroit
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  • Lions
  • snow

This one is going to be messy.  Huge blizzard taking place, probably favors the team who makes fewer mistakes (ie: not the Lions).

 

  • 326 comments

Does UM deserve a bowl in Orlando or Tampa? A surprising answer.

By michelin — December 2nd, 2012 at 2:12 PM — 39 comments
Filed under:
  • MGoBoard
  • bowl
  • Capital One
  • football
  • NEB
  • NU
  • Outback
  • Sagain ratings

While a thread below considers what bowl opponent IS likely for UM, what bowl we SHOULD be going to?

Although some uncertainty remains, most people expect NU and NEB to go to the CapOne and Outback Bowls over UM.  The reason is that the B1G sends a team to the Capitol One (or Outback) if it has two more wins (or two fewer losses) than its competitor.*

WIth this rule, however, teams with far easier out-of-conference (OOC) games are much more likely to win the higher  bowl bids. And this year, unfortunately, UM had a much tougher schedule.  It played its toughest OOC games on the road vs. teams with an average Sagarin PREDICTOR rank  of #2, both on the road.  NEB and NU played vs. opponents with an average rank of about #43, including one home game.**

Partly as a result, UM has by far the highest Sagarin rank (UM #24, NEB #29, NU #38).   Indeed, even according  to the final BCS rankings, UM clearly would be ranked above NU (and probably NEB).  So, it should be going either to the CapOne or Outback bowl, right?

Maybe not.

Imagine what would happen If the B1G were unified once again, without the unfair divisions.  Then, if it still wanted a title game, perhaps it should be sending the 2 teams with the highest BCS ranks.  So, UM would have played NEB for the title.  Um would not have to play on the road, like the last game.  It would have to play not with its 3rd string QB.  It would have Devin Gardner.  And it probably would have Denard Robinson  In fact, playing vs. a NEB team that just gave up 70 points to Wisc, Robinson would likely set the all-time NCAA QB rushing record in a big UM win.

But then, like now, UM would probably not going to the CapOne or Outback bowl. 

In this alternate universe where the B1G has rational rules, UM would be going to the Rose Bowl.

_________

*These are the only rules I could find on the web, as reported by Rittenberg in 2011.  So, I am assuming the rules have not changed.  http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/39509/reviewing-b1gs-bowl-selec...

**I report the Sagarin PREDICTOR rankings because these are the ones most likely to predict actual game outcomes.  Here are Sagarin PREDICTOR rank and rating, average Sagarin rank of the top 2 OOC opponents and B1G record for each team.

UM #24 82.05   TOP 2 OOC OPPONENTS; ROAD ND #1 AND ALA#3 (#1-2 BCS), B1G 6-2

NEB  #29 80.04  HOME ARKANSAS STATE #54, ROAD UCLA #19, B1G 7-2

NU #38 78.29  HOME VANDY #35 ROAD SYRACUSE #50, B1G 5-3

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

  • 39 comments

Jerry Palm: Rose Bowl for Michigan

By Soulfire21 — August 2nd, 2012 at 12:53 PM — 43 comments
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  • Jerry Palm
  • Prognostication
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  • This is way too early but I'm doing it anyway

Jerry Palm released his 2012-2013 bowl projections that include Michigan (Big Ten Champ) facing Oregon (Pac-12 # 2, USC gets picked for the MNCG).

Obligatory statement about the utter ridiculousness of predicting bowl games before a single game of the season has been played?  Check.

The reason I bring this up (as opposed to other prognosticators) is that last year around this time, he had Michigan in a BCS bowl (the Fiesta) and most people were taken aback at his "silly" (but not so silly looking back on it) faith in Michigan.

And it's not just that he correctly predicted Michigan into a BCS bowl, he also predicted Michigan's losses to MSU and Iowa.

At the very least, it's nice to see us in the conversation for high-profile bowls, championships, etc.  You know, how it should be.

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