stephen ross

harbaugh-six-flags[1]

Harbaugh in a light moment with Michigan State offensive coordinator Jim Bollman

NOT MUCH MOVEMENT TODAY. Been waiting to see if anything major would come in, either publicly or privately. Nothing has. At this point that's a good thing: the closer we get to the 28th without a major shift in how things are going, the better. Everyone thinks it's happening.

BUT A COUPLE OF MEATY TIPS. A couple of additional circumstantial bits I've got:

  • The wife of a current 49ers assistant coach stating that Michigan fans are going to be "real happy about something as soon as the season's over."
  • John Elway, who tried to hire Harbaugh in 2011, telling some business associates that Harbaugh to Michigan is "pretty much" a done deal.
  • More player grapevine stuff indicating that Harbaugh will announce for Michigan as soon as the 49ers season is over.

I enjoy the first two bits a lot because they have nothing to do with a potential echo chamber amongst the Michigan side of things. Neither of these sources is direct or established with me, but both had specifically credible paths to the people in the know. There's been positive stuff I've heard that I appreciate but doesn't move the needle much; these two tips are substantial ones.

NO PHIN ZONE. Miami Herald reporter David Neal:

(His account isn't verified but he's legit.) The Dolphins sticking with Philbin is good news for Michigan; announcing it now is better. Ross could well wait to make that determination until after the season, when Harbaugh is loose. Saying it now preserves our canary. It also implies that there's no reason to wait to see if he's available.

ANOTHER NFL GUY REVISING HIS POSITION. Like Adam Schefter before him, Ian Rapoport continued walking back his previously dismissive take on Harbaugh to Michigan:

"He is conflicted about Michigan," Rapoport said Saturday on NFL Network's NFL Total Access. "He is a little surprised, talking to people close to him, about how hard the Maize and Blue have pulled at him. But he also knows he wants to be an NFL coach. He does not want to leave the area and the Oakland Raiders do seem to be the top suitor for him."

The bit about how he's "surprised" at how hard the block M pulls at him feels like a bit of CYA. The Michigan end of this is not surprised at all, so doubtful Harbaugh is. In any case: Rapoport moves from NFL true believer to apostate.

TIMELINE. This will happen or not happen quickly after the 49ers season ends—Jay Glazer says within 48 hours. He also mentions the Bears as a possible landing spot.

THIS WAS PHOTOSHOPPED. It got me, so I tweeted it. I then noticed a lot more RTs of the original than my correction, so a reminder that this did not actually happen:

B5WQX5uCIAEAQog[1]

block M on playcard is not real

Well played, anonymous internet photoshop bandit.

PLAN C, FOR CUMONG. As a football guy who makes forays into soccer writing for the USMNT I've had a hard time taking Jason La Canfora seriously after he moonlighted as a World Cup guy for CBS. Guy described the USA's smash-and-grab win against Ghana as a new thing for the States instead of what they'd been doing for much of their existence. I realize now that I needed the Kermit sipping tea meme to exist last summer.

But anyway, La Canfora is one of the NFL reporters who has been claiming that the idea of Harbaugh to Michigan is ridiculous, because The Shield rules all, etc. This morning he put out an article about their non-Harbaugh options. The names:

Michigan has maintained a desire to land Harbaugh's brother, John, as well, sources said, but the Ravens coach has made it clear he has no interest in leaving Baltimore. Other NFL coaches on the school's radar include New Orleans' Sean Payton, Buffalo's Doug Marrone and Dallas' Jason Garrett (who is expected to sign an extension with the Cowboys shortly after the season).

That list could not be more transparently calculated to make agent friends. You have a guy with a massive contract who's missing the playoffs (Payton), a second-year guy who has seen considerable improvement but remains on the hot seat (Marrone), and a guy literally negotiating an extension right now (Garrett). Oh and John Harbaugh, who is included because Harbaugh.

La Canfora maintains that Michigan has little shot at Jim Harbaugh, a program alum with a dedication to Michigan that verges on insane, and then drops the names of three sitting NFL coaches with exactly zero connection to Michigan. This fails basic sanity checks. Relegate La Canfora to the ranks of those who witlessly parrot anything an agent tells them.

PLAN B. Nobody's talking about Gundy anymore as even a plan B, but there continue to be indications his working environment is unpleasant:

My football coach doesn’t want to play anybody any good, definitely, but jiminy Christmas, we looked pretty good against Florida State,” Holder said of the 2014 season opener, which the Cowboys lost 37-31. “Until we beat OU, that was the highlight of our season.”

I very seriously doubt we get to the point where this is relevant, but slow day.

HERE'S A WEIRD QUOTE. The SF Gate tracked down Jerry Hanlon:

"Would he be a good coach? Heck, Jimmy’s already proven himself,” said Hanlon, a Michigan assistant from 1969-91. “Would they like him around here? I’ve said, 'As far as I know, he’ll be welcome when he first comes in. How long it’s going to stay that way, I don’t know.’ But, really, I know a lot of people would like to see it.”

Says a lot about the recent history of the program that Hanlon would be wary about how long Harbaugh's honeymoon would last even before he's locked down.

ON MEETINGS. Rapoport reports that Michigan and Harbaugh have not yet met face to face, which I also think is true. True in an official sense, anyway. Harbaugh meets Michigan face to face whenever Charles Woodson's on the opposite sideline or he gets a phone call. Hackett not so much.

Rivals is buzzing about a seemingly unnecessary step to make that meeting happen, with high tech whatnot going back and forth on planes to set up a "face to face" meeting that doesn't require anyone to leave town. Have you heard of Face Time, guys? I hope the sophisticated HD camera setup is really just an intern with an iPad. But anyway: some form of official face to face meeting is happening in the near future, possibly tomorrow.

Meanwhile, a clarification on an earlier statement: I said that the 23rd and 30th were potentially important days because they were dates Hackett was scheduled to meet with the players. Those "meetings" are conference calls; the team is obviously scattered to the four winds until January.

BEST GIFT EVER. Eight dollar khakis FTW.

ETC.: Pro wrestlers hope Harbaugh stays in San Francisco. So there's that. Harbaugh postgame presser. John Kryk on the search.

harbaugh-baalke[1]

Harbaugh wears ties for these kinds of events

IS IT HAPPENING? More unconfirmed reports that it's happening, including a number of people sending me a receipt for ties from Van Boven—a local upscale men's retailer—destined for one Jim Harbaugh in California. HE GOT SOME TIES is in the THEY'RE SHOPPING FOR A HOUSE vein of circumstantial evidence, except… somewhat less convincing. But I'm pretty sure Jim Harbaugh just got some ties from Ann Arbor. Or at least someone who knows him sent him some.

Please do not send Jim Harbaugh ties unless he's coming back, readers.

In less speculative connections: players on the team are pretty optimistic. Some recent grads have the same agent as Harbaugh and they are feeling good about it, and it's filtering out as they tell the people around them. The telephone chain is pretty long here (Harbaugh to agent to recent graduate to current player) and there's a natural inclination to turn "it might be happening" into IT'S HAPPENING along the way, but… yeah, players on the team are thinking it's happening.

I have totally unconfirmed reports that there's a verbal agreement and the only thing that could nix it would be an NFL team coming in with a ludicrous deal. I don't know if that should make you feel better or worse, because a ludicrous NFL deal is definitely a possibility. Conflicting reports on whether Hackett and Harbaugh have actually met/talked or if this is still at the agent stage. I don't buy the verbal agreement bit—too much telephone for that to be meaningful.

I can state that there is stuff going down at the regents/AD level, with meetings scheduled today and Monday. It is possible some of these meetings may turn into public events. Something is happening. Is it IT?

FWIW. I find the react posted by thosewhostay7 to be pretty credible; people have been questioning whether I still buy it. I'm not saying it's gospel, but it is a data point, one that agrees with other stuff I've heard: Harbaugh is just now seriously considering his future, Michigan wants this done by January 1st, and that even if an NFL team promises him the moon the fact remains that he has an owner who is likely to meddle. "Autocracy" is in fact what college offers, for the most part. Bayesian reasoning, man: this is not as good as getting a call from Hackett but it's enough to move the needle some.

This is in conflict with the done deal stuff, yes. I think the done deal stuff is less accurate than the above. I know you don't want to hear some of it; don't shoot the messenger. My current status: considerable, but fearful optimism.

ROSS IS NOT GETTING INVOLVED IN THE BAD WAY (FOR NOW). Ross puts it out in the media that he's not interested in being an NFL suitor for Harbaugh:

Despite widespread media speculation that the Dolphins will pursue 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, owner Stephen Ross has shown no indication that he has any interest in making a coaching change, sources told the Miami Herald on Thursday.

Furthermore, the organization has no desire to be used as leverage in Harbaugh’s upcoming negotiations — which some see as inevitable based on Ross’ previous relationship with Harbaugh.

Given previous speculation that he would jump in if Michigan was out, that's good news. For now.

MORE ON TIMING. December 23rd has been kicked around as a potentially important day; it is, but not because it's Harbaugh's birthday. I mean, it is important because it's Harbaugh's birthday. If he comes that's New Christmas. In terms of the coaching search, though, it's important because it's one of two scheduled meetings between Hackett and the team. That's a point at which we might get unofficial word, or at least a vibe on whether it's happening.

The second meeting is scheduled for the 28th. You will no doubt read something into that whether I tell you to or not.

THE PRECISE NUMBER. Bruce Feldman and John U Bacon both said the Godfather money mentioned by the NFL press is not accurate. If so it's not that far off, as I've heard numbers ranging from 45 to 49 pretty consistently and Webb is saying that is the number, period. PFT is on point with their article, noting that the offer is disputed "because of course it is." This coaching search, everybody!

The number that is likely in dispute is how many years it is, as that has ranged from six to eight. Have heard that in lieu of a traditional buyout, the contract is backloaded to encourage Harbaugh to finish out the deal.

Either way we are talking Saban money, enough that if Harbaugh does stay in the NFL it isn't about said money.

LET'S READ EVERYTHING INTO PRESS CONFERENCE QUOTES. Harbaugh did not say "screw you guys, I'm going home" yesterday, but in terms of reasonable presser outcomes this was pretty good:

-Q: Have you been offered a contract by the University of Michigan?

-HARBAUGH: As you know, I only talk about the job that I have. We’ve been together a long time. Always been my policy.

-Q: Trent mentioned recently that you and he met briefly this week and agreed that you’d talk about everything at the end of this season. Was that something you asked for? How did that come about?

-HARBAUGH: As you know, Trent and I have discussions every day. So…

-Q: You said in the off-season that your intention was to coach out this contract. Is that still your intention?

-HARBAUGH: Umm… Yeah, I’ve said I’m going to finish this ’til the end. My focus is the same as the players’ focus, it’s the same as the coaches’ focus, the focus on the practice field, the focus in meetings, by our players, by our coaches and by me.

That is our focus–this football game against the San Diego Chargers. And playing well and winning. That’s where our energy and focus is.

San Francisco beat writer and licensed internet troll Tim Kawakami thought there was something a bit different with Harbaugh:

You wont have Harbs to kick around anymore? Let's read into that excessively, okay? Okay. It's agreed. Based on a licensed internet troll's opinion of Harbaugh's body language, Harbaugh is a lock. Glad we could come to this opinion together.

YOU OWE US A DOLLAR. Steve Addazio signs an extension based on rumors that Michigan might be thinking about thinking about considering making him a part of their long list. This turns into:

This development removes Addazio from the search for a new coach at Michigan, where he was considered one of the prime candidates after San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh. Michigan didn’t make direct contact with Addazio, but a source said the school reached out to gauge his interest.

My eyes roll so hardcore at that. Yes, Michigan pinged Addazio's agent. They pinged David Cutcliffe. They pinged a number of people who aren't in need of an extension right now. None of that means anything except you are on the long list. Football Scoop of course took this as evidence that their previous take on Addazio was gospel and I mean… cumong man.

A lot of this is people talking to coaches. Why would coaches know anything about Michigan's search unless they are actively involved in it? Coaches are not sources.

I AM NOT IN HARBAUGH'S BUSHES. I had to miss my weekly spot on WTKA because I'm out of town, leading to a joke about how I'm in San Francisco. I am not, please don't blame me if everything falls apart. It is not because I'm creepin'.

A REMINDER. Chatsports is not credible, even if they've moved on from the Ace Williams moniker. Good luck at prom this spring though.

ETC.: I RTed Scott Paterno saying something really dumb. RIP to da mentions. Lesson learned. Miles says some more stuff that's not quite about not coaching Michigan. Harbaugh the recruiter.

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Eric DeBoer

REMAIN CALM. I am now getting some chatter to the effect that Harbaugh is coming, pending t-crossing and i-dotting. None of it is from a source I would consider rock solid, and all of it comes with an ominous "barring a last second change of heart" disclaimer. Please remain calm.

It feels like warranted optimism transforming itself into e-fact via a game of telephone—I can confidently say that there are people close to the situation who think it is happening, some of them very strongly. Whether they're right is another matter. Harbaugh may get NFL offers that change the equation. Right now Michigan can talk to him all they want; NFL teams would get hit with accusations of tampering if they did so. Everyone, including Harbaugh, is working with incomplete information.

A POTENTIALLY MEANINGLESS STATEMENT WE'LL TAKE AS GOSPEL. Raiders owner Prince Valium on his general manager:

-Q: Have those two wins helped you in your assessment of the football operation? Are you sticking with Reggie McKenzie?

-DAVIS: As I said, I never really said I wasn’t going to keep Reggie on board.

-Q: He’s your guy still, right?

-DAVIS: He is my guy right now, absolutely.

-Q: That means there’s still the possibility of dramatic changes, I guess.

-DAVIS: There are always possibilities for anything.

-Q: What do you think about Jim Harbaugh?

-DAVIS: (Laughs.) It was great talking to him.

McKenzie (not that McKenzie) is coming off an excellent draft, FWIW. Davis seems positive about him but "never really said" and "right now" are back doors that indicate some hesitancy. The upshot for Michigan is that if Oakland is inclined to keep McKenzie, they wouldn't be offering Harbaugh the moon that is full personnel control.

Of course, Oakland could be convinced to throw McKenzie overboard if Harbaugh was interested. Cue rumor:

This has been a completely useless searchbit. Thank you for your patronage.

OTHER NFL MACHINATIONS. Dolphins coach Joe Philbin is under pressure in Miami, with local reporters asserting that his job "may hinge" on making the playoffs. Philbin's in his third year with Miami, having gone 7-9 and 8-8 in his first two years. They're 7-6 this year and currently trailing the Patriots. If they do lose that game they'll have a very tough road to a bid.

The guy firing Philbin is of course Stephen Ross, Michigan mega-donor. Ross has been rumored to be amongst the heavy hitters putting together a neato financial package for Harbaugh, so a Harbaugh pursuit would be an about-face. Said local reporter says this would happen. At least, I think so. The article is full of seeming autocorrect errors:

The source said Ross would try to upgrade a team that missed the playoffs for a sixth consecutive year by revisiting the idea of hiring Jim Harbaugh. … If the Dolphins cannot get to the postseason, Ross would have work to do and most of the assignment will center on Harbaugh.

What?

Anyway: Ross pursuing Harbaugh would be tricky if Ross wants to get into all the good parties when he comes back to Ann Arbor. If Harbaugh does turn down a generous Michigan offer because he wants to stay in the NFL and that becomes public—probably because Michigan hires someone else—then Harbaugh could end up with the Dolphins without making Ross look that bad. Anything else and not so much. Steve Lorenz reports that Ross gave his word he would not chase Harbaugh to "more than one figure" in the Michigan community.

Given that, if the Dolphins do go hard after Harbaugh you should take that as a sign the dream is dead.

NON-MACHINATIONS? Ian Rapoport says the Dolphins are still not a player for Harbaugh. Rapoport previously reported that M left a meeting with Harbaugh "convinced he wants to be an NFL coach" a week ago, something that is almost certainly not true given the way the search has developed (or not developed) and the steady drumbeat of positive insider chatter. So take it with the appropriate level of certainty.

I do think Rapoport's more likely to be on point when he's talking to NFL teams about what they plan to do than trying to read the mind of Jim Harbaugh. Also:

If Michigan was convinced that Harbaugh wasn't coming, wouldn't Ross 1) know that and 2) being going full guns here?

PLAN B. To my moderate chagrin, it is looking increasingly like Miles is the fallback option. He is definitely a fallback option, and depending on who you listen to (and what time you listen to them) there are somewhere between 0 and 2 guys between him and Harbaugh. Since the guys who could intervene are usually of the Stoops/Mora/Payton variety—longshots—Miles would become the favorite if Harbaugh turns M down.

The heavy favorite: everyone who knows Miles swears up and down he would come with two nanoseconds of the offer. What about 2007? Miles was never officially offered in 2007 and got roped into an LSU extension before Michigan could seriously contact him; with LSU on the verge of playing for a national title and Michigan's interest uncertain Miles had to go with the LSU AD's clever power play. There is no such hold on Miles now, as his team prepares to play in the Music City Bowl.

Why only moderate chagrin? Hey, he's not Schiano or Adddazio.

ON THE OTHER HAND. Webb reports that contact with Miles has not yet been "substantive." The focus is on Harbaugh.

Joe-Moglia-2[1]

IT COULD HAPPEN

JOE MOGLIA IS ALL YOU NEED TO HEAR. Football Scoop weighed in again, for what little that's worth. Michigan's honchos now "understand that Jim Harbaugh is unlikely to come to Michigan," according to site that previously said M had been turned down flat two weeks ago. Meanwhile, Steve Lorenz reports that the idea that Jim Mora and Dan Mullen have been run by the regents is "total bunk," so that's most of the post.

The rest of it is spent promoting the fortunes of Joe Moglia, the CEO-turned-Coastal-Carolina coach, who is 65 and coaching FCS. (Yes, that's totally different than pumping Bob Stitt.)

While I'd like half of that post to be true (the bits about Mora and Mullen being next options), it's clear that whatever FS gets right about this search will be by accident. This offseason they've already "reported" Bo Pelini to Youngstown State, Bret Bielema to Nebraska, and Lane Kiffin winning the Broyles.

GOING OFF THE BOARD? Ohio State OC Tom Herman is under heavy consideration at Houston. Houston's a good mid-major job that has sprung Art Briles and Kevin Sumlin into the big time, and Herman has a decade of Texas experience to his credit. Houston would be dumb not to offer him the job; Herman would be dumb not to take it. If Houston does in fact go after Herman that'll almost certainly be before Michigan gets down to the coordinator-scouring level. So merph.

Given the Miles chatter this is all likely to be moot anyway.

ALSO OFF THE BOARD. Sportsbook.ag again pulled the Harbaugh bet after more and more Michigan money came in. Last time this bet came up, a commenter pointed out that as online books go, Sportsbook.ag has a D- grade from an industry rating service and is not taking major money on this—it wouldn't take a whole lot to swing those odds.

FOUR WAY TRADE? Bo Pelini for Pitt. Yeah. Yeah man.

Etc.: ESPN's Dan Murphy has the least dismissive national take on Michigan's search that I've yet seen.