spread n shred

[META Note: Ace took sick, so this is getting the Seth treatment. Also we're having Thanksgiving at my house in 24 hours so this is gonna be short.]

Let's live in this moment for a second:

This Moment

The Indiana Hoosiers have the ball. There's 4-1/2 minutes left. And there's just one score of separation between them and Urban Meyer's first Big Ten loss. In this moment, there is hope that a basketball school with a mediocre football team could… just… maybe…

It didn't. On this very play, the universe made a correction: Diamont chucked it to a double-covered guy, it was intercepted, and a little bit of hellish divine comedy later, OSU had the B1G East locked up.

Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate.

Offense

Personnel. I diagram:

OSU-offense

The three guys we thought would be their biggest stars in the preseason aren't starting but it doesn't matter. J.T. Barrett has done just fine for the injured Braxton Miller, Marshall has been more than an adequate replacement for the H-/Percy-/Slot-/Whatever job since Norfleet-like Dontre Wilson went down. And Deep Threat™ Devin Smith doesn't "start" or get as many targets as Michael Thomas, but he leads the team in receiving yards and has 8 TDs to go with his 24.4 ypc. He's definitely the dangerman in the key backups section in the short history of these diagrams.

[Hit the jump for information-type substance]

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read option [Fuller]

I am determined this spring to mine every possible stat for every possible insight. This week I delved into quarterback rushes. Not sacks. I wanted to know which offenses tended to have their quarterbacks take off, or planned runs for them into their game plans.

Baseline: here's Michigan and their opponents last year. Sacks and yardage lost to them are not counted, but I couldn't tell from scrambles and QB sneaks, or stuff like if he took off for 10 yards on 3rd and 15 that defenses are happy to give up:

Season Avg vs Mich
Opponent QB Rush Yards QB Rush Yards
Central Michigan 1.8 8 5 11
Notre Dame 1.5 3 0 0
Akron 4.6 19 3 11
Connecticut 2.5 3 3 -4
Minnesota 14.4 77 18 69
Penn State 2.4 4 2 0
Indiana 8.9 42 10 60
Michigan State 4.5 17 4 1
Nebraska 8.8 35 12 31
Northwestern 10.8 58 24 92
Iowa 5.2 25 5 26
Ohio State 14.7 119 14 165
Kansas State 19.2 97 14 76
NCAA Avg 7.5 40.0 8.8 41.4

Indiana, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, and Kansas State ran option games. Minnesota's offense was QB power running (thing it is like: Michigan's 2010 offense when Rodriguez gave up on trying to make Denard into a zone reader). According to the UFR database Minnesota quarterback running plays vs Michigan were as follows: 7 QB powers; 2 draws; 2 zone read keepers; a false zone arc sweep thing, a QB sneak, and 7 scrambles.

The stats can't tell the difference between this kind of offense and a dedicated Richrodigan spread 'n shred. There aren't many teams who run this as their base offense, as simple as it may be, but a lot of teams have a mobile change-of-pace quarterback and a small package built around him. Notable teams who deployed a second guy:

Player (2014 Elig) Team % of Snaps % Will Pass Rush Pass
Austin Boucher (graduated) Miami(NTM) 51% 73% 80 211
Austin Gearing (So.) 35% 35% 129 70
Drew Kummer (Jr.) 14% 71% 22 55
Nate Sudfeld (Jr.) Indiana 61% 94% 22 338
Tre Roberson (Jr.) 38% 62% 84 139
C.J. Brown (11th year Sr.) Maryland 73% 72% 119 303
Caleb Rowe (Jr.) 26% 91% 14 136
Philip Nelson (transferred) Minnesota 59% 72% 79 200
Mitch Leidner (So.) 38% 51% 89 91
Gary Nova (Sr.) Rutgers 68% 93% 25 328
Chas Dodd (graduated) 32% 87% 21 143
Tommy Armstrong (So.) Nebraska 39% 68% 63 135
Ron Kellogg III (graduated) 31% 90% 16 141
Taylor Martinez (graduated) 30% 77% 34 116
Trevor Siemian (Sr.) Northwestern 63% 92% 29 315
Kain Colter (graduated) 36% 50% 98 99
Braxton Miller (Sr.) Ohio State 72% 65% 150 276
Kenny Guiton (graduated) 25% 74% 39 110

I included Rutgers to show Chas Dodd wasn't a Drew Henson-ian run threat except in comparison to Gary Nova.

[Jump: Okay spread zealots, do teams with running QBs have an advantage?]

Here's a Superbowl commercial that didn't make the cut, despite having ALL the Pat Stansiks:

Since CBS refused to run this for $500 bucks, our store partners at Underground are just going to give all them smackaroos to somebody to go on a Michigan gear shopping binge.

And just in time too because the latest from Fashion Week in Paris have arrived.

bandwagon89gameblouses

beatstate

 

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You many now consume.