i say leave something alone for a change

SUBjayhawks-superJumbo[1]

Go for three against MSU?

Brian,

Frustrated after the end of the MSU basketball game.  Simple question...if you have the ball down 2 points, with the chance to take the last shot, wouldn't you give yourself a better chance to win the game by running the clock down and taking the best three point shot you can get within the last five seconds?

Simplistically, Let's say it has a 35% chance to go in, and that your win % if it goes in is 100%.  The other option is go to go for a two point shot with time left on the clock.  What are your odds of winning with that strategy?  Much worse, right?  I'm no math major, but to me the odds go like this:

- generously, a 50% chance of making the shot, which then...
- gives your opponent a possession to win.  Call it 50/50 that they take advantage.
- even if they don't, all you get is overtime, which lets call another 50/50 shot.

Maybe you can run the numbers, but it seems like your win % is something like 12.5%.  You need three toss ups to go your way.

I'll hang up and listen...

Regards,
Philip Maguran

It's a bit more complicated than that.

  1. Michigan isn't just worried about what will happen if they score. They're also worried about what will happen if they don't. Michigan had 20 seconds left when Bielfeldt tipped the ball in. If that had gone the the other way they had an opportunity to force a turnover or get another bite at the apple in the event MSU did not knock down both free throws. Even an 80% shooter like Denzel Valentine gives you a shot at the game about a third of the time.
  2. Michigan's tying basket was a off an offensive rebound. Off a two, yes, but even if it was a three the ensuing putback is still worth two.
  3. Your chance at a putback is greater if you aren't shooting a jumper. In the NBA, shots within 6 feet get rebounded at a 37% rate; threes at just a 26% rate. (Threes are still better than long twos at 21%.) Albrecht's shot was a weird floater, one that saw Branden Dawson checking Bielfeldt at the FT line in an attempt to prevent a three—the nature of that shot greatly aided the subsequent putback.
  4. Your chances of an OREB are zero if you wait for a three at the buzzer.
  5. Last second threes are generally bad shots because the opponent is maniacally focused on the three-point line. Albrecht's three to bring Michigan within striking distance was a good example of the phenomenon. To get any sort of look he had to take the shot a few feet behind the arc. See also:

you're welcome

Given all that the decision is far less clear. I'd be totally on-board with an open look that came out of the context of the offense. I would prefer it to any non-gimme two. But waiting for a do-or-die three is not good eats.

I don't have a problem with the way regulation ended. In that situation the imperative is to have a good offensive possession, hopefully quickly, and Albrecht's quick take got a decent shot that put Michigan in position for an OREB without bleeding much time.

[After the JUMP: talking people off various recruiting related ledges]

mich-stadium-etching-lgpHhS1

History of our scoreboard by M Today / Uni concept smuggled from DB's office

Ugh what's that on the right? Is that…real? Is that blue pants? Is that the international nautical sign for the letter J on our sleeves? Naw, it's a reply by Ghost of Bo in a Diary of the Week by the same Ghost of Bo, a scathing, front-paged parody of Dave Brandon's quest to create the future. Apparently the future means M's and internet memes on everything. Like Taylor Lewan down the path of the Jake Long Experience, Michigan is still 100% on track for the future envisioned two years ago by The Shredder.

The future does not stop at scoreboards, boxes, burro-bashing left tackles, and uniforms; it goes all the way to the upper lips of every fan. This as well began in the way back of 2009, when an enterprising young man named Pat, on advice from a group of fans dedicated to putting cookie dusters back upon the labia sebucula* of all Michigan men, flipped on a video camera and filmed M fans tailgating. Thus began the legend of Pre-Game Pat. Some (I'm guessing MGoreader) interviewed him for English class and Pat posted the text of the interview as a diary.

pgwporig

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*I spent '09 trying to get [Mets 3rd baseman] David Wright to grow a mustache, hence the expansive vocabulary for lip whiskers, soup strainers, crumb catchers, lady ticklers, nose bugs, pushbrooms, mobile tea strainers, and the "Tiller Toothbrush."

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In the Etc. section, MiS is keeping the candle burning on Upset Watch through these dark December weeks by previewing the bowl games. Ohio is playing Utah State in Boise, which didn't Ohio get in trouble for scamming the NCAA or something? Oh wait, that's the Ohio with nine wins this year. Oooh sorry. AceUofMer is back to covering Michigan wrestling. MGoBlog Mcrecruiting analyst Ace McAnbender interviewed WR/DB Marcus McWilson, another 2013 recruit with kind of a funny name. Nothing Mc about his game though. The #8 Wolverines faced unranked Wisconsin and avoided the upset only because the bottom of the order stepped up. And finally Section 1 is mad that Bacon had his speaking engagement canceled with U-M Club Detroit, presumably because..oh hell you know why and Bacon knows why; what we don't know is why all the superfluous equine flagellation? Don't answer that.

original20080202231407!Beating-a-dead-horse

Best of the Board (Much Better Than the Diaries This Week Anyway)

PHOTOBOMBING, or PHOTOBROPPING, or HOW I LEARNED TO STOP WORRYING AND LOVE THE BROMB

image0012152380Ohio State

So at the hockey game a few weeks ago some dude went to go get his picture taken with this year's edition of FSD's official attractive females of the species and got, well, another member of the species. Then you did this. In answer to Papa Kass, that was posted noon Friday and I write DDs on Thursday nights so the Photobomb counts as this week.

VOTE FOR ME, I'M CRAIG JAMES BIATCH!

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I once took a business trip to Dallas during election season. This is how I learned that in Texas wearing a cowboy hat means you are running for office. If you're really serious you'll have a ranch or a slaughterhouse in the background. So guess who's gettin' his cowboy hat on!

On this here blog we have a strict policy of No Politics. So if the good people of Texas do the right thing, this may be the last time we ever have to talk about Craig James. That means never again having to debunk those nasty and completely false rumors about how Craig James killed five hookers while at SMU.

CAN YOU NAME THAT GAME?

I like this new challenge, posted by Yost Ghost earlier this week. The answer's in the thread but it's more fun to try to figure it out for yourself. If that one's too hard, here's some in-stadium shots from a recent home game that's a bit easier to identify.

PROJECTING CURRENT M PLAYERS IN THE NFL

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SalvatoreQuattro asks who's the best pro prospect on the team? I bet every blog has this thread pop up a few times a year, and like those threads we think our guys are all about two rounds better than the NFL probably will. Ours however comes with snide asides about the owner of that NFL team with the terrible name.

"If Dan Snyder had a nickel for each time he got challenged to a karate match, he'd be... well... even more of a rich asshole."

NEWSFLASH: OHIO STATE SAYS OHIO STATE ISN'T IN TROUBLE AT ALL

RedNovember

Some folks this week were a little surprised when soon-to-be-Buckeye-again Bri'onte Dunn tweeted that Urban assured him there's no more sanctions coming down the line.

Could it be true? Is it possible that the NCAA is so arbitrary/blind/stupid/incompetent that the stonewalling tactics of Ohio State actually worked? Is it even within the realm of possibility that the net result of practicegate ends up tangibly twice as damaging as 10 years of blatant violations involving everyone up to the president because Michigan made the spectacularly bad decision to fully cooperate and accept responsibility? Did the league really throw up its hands the minute their best witness got in whatever car Gee's buddy was currently lending him and drove it straight to the NFL?

Um, Yes. Hi, NCAA, Ohio State's bitch, have we met?pryor-vette

Does Urban know something we don't? Well where do you think Meyer's getting it from? He's getting it from Smith, who thinks this whole thing should have been a two-game suspension for Tress. Or he's getting it from Gee, who is sure Ohio State has done nothing wrong because he didn't know, understand?

This is a way better defense than “We own the mistakes we have made,” or "We're sorry we accidentally practiced too much because nobody knows what counts as stretching; here's an exhaustive report on everything ever along with our recommendation for tangible, practical punishments that double in damages the benefits over our competition that we didn't receive." This response netted Michigan three years of probation (NCAA tacked on the third under its "always add something to show we're hard asses" policy) and 130 hours of lost practice time, not to mention a lifetime of having to explain NCAA's definition of "major violations" to stupid people.

Now watch a pro work:

People: Mr. Gee, if everything was the fault of Jim Tressell and firing him was your sole act of contrition, why was he invited back to talk to (i.e. coach) the team before the Michigan game?

Gee: It's cool guy, because, see, I didn't know about it. It was the players who wanted it (thanks uncle of UMxWolverines!).

Now look at the results. Gee deserves a raise. Oh wait, he just got one.

NEWSFLASH: MICHIGAN STADIUM HAS LOTS OF FANS IN IT

big-house-celebration

The 2011 attendance figures are out and this time we are very happy they don't count the 4th quarter of the WMU game. Unsurprisingly Michigan Stadium can fit a lot of people; we led the nation with 112,000 in attendance per. That's 102% capacity. TCU had 112% capacity. Considering a stadium at 102% capacity feels a lot like an elevator at 200% capacity, I'm kind of glad I'm not a Horned Frog right now. It's not even a frog; it's a lizard.

FERGODSAKES T-SHIRTS SELLING LIKE HOT CAKES NORTH OF OHIO

We had a question from one JeremyB about why he can't get him some "Michigan Fergodsakes" t-shirts. Good news Jeremy, you can get these babies in the MGoStore, minus the "MICHIGAN" part because copyright and what what. I was looking on the store this morning (it's just a few clicks away) and sales of shirts like these have gone way up recently. I think it's because Hoke has changed the tide on the rivalry. Hell people in Ohio are starting to order these shirts. Never in a million years I would have thought that. Selling Fergodsakes jerseys is a good start.

LET'S TAKE A THREAD TO APPRECIATE HEININGER

Okay.

BACK THE F OFF OUR GUYS MEYER/MUSCHAMP

Florida fans imagine they can poach Borges. Ohio State fans imagine they can poach Kalis. The proper response is to laugh in the face of such people until their eyes fill with the sudden realization of the utter lack of value in their existence, then angrily insist they remove their worthless subhuman forms from your presence, preferably following that with an act that is anatomically impossible. I do not know if that's how it went down, but you should know Urban isn't recruiting Kalis anymore and Borges isn't going anywhere. Would that we could say the same to people (probably Sparties) who want to move The Game to October.

SOMETHING FUNNY THIS WAY COMES

Six Zero posted the logo…and that's it. The new MGoComic strip starts Jan. 1. You're a tease, Six. A total tease.

HOW DO WE SAY HAPPY HOLIDAYS FROM HOKE, DENARD, BORGES, MATTISON, AND LLOYD BRADY?

Like ah This:

Yeah jibjab.

An eagle-eyed user caught this: the M-Den is now listing something hardly different from the doomiform the Free Press published and Dave Brandon laughed at:

image

That looks official what with its number and the Adidas logo and looking all like a thing that exists in the world. You still can't buy one (it errors out when you click on the monstrosity) but I think it's official enough to say that Michigan is going to look very, very stupid when they take the field against Notre Dame.

(new scoreboards new scoreboards new scoreboards not a cesspool of filth and corruption so deep Sepp Blatter is impressed deep breaths)