david moosman

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Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	McGuffie	2
Newkirk splits the double of Ferrara(-1) and Molk(-1) and is sitting right in the hole. This is the opposite of what happened all last week. McGuffie's forced to cut back into the waiting arms of the backside DE, who wasn't held outside by the zone read fake. Bubble screen was the play to go to here.
M22	2	8	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Throwback screen	McGuffie	-3
It's just amazing how bad of a blocker Mike Massey is. I don't think I've seen him block anyone all year. On this play he gets run over by the OLB and McGuffie has no chance. I wonder if Threet actually has an option here? Odoms on the middle screen looked like a good option. (CA, 3, screen)
M19	3	11	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	Scramble	Threet	9
Moosman(-2) smoked by his man, forcing Threet to scramble out of the pocket. He picks up nine or so yards before getting cut by a defender and fumbling. (TA, --, protection 1/2, Moosman -1)
Drive Notes: Fumble, 0-0, 11 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M16	1	10	Shotgun 2-back Trips	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	McGuffie	-2
Two back trips? What? Well, Mathews is lined up as an outside receiver and covered up, so he can't go downfield. This should signal obvious run (or, I guess, screen) and does. I hate this formation. The play is an ugly shadow of some of the stuff we saw last year: Moosman runs right by the backside guard, who's moving to the second level, and Schilling just sort of futilely chases him into McGuffie.
M14	2	12	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read keeper	Threet	14
Yay yay our first down in the half. Threet pulls it out, but the DE is out there to contain; Threet jukes(!) the guy out of his jock(!!) and runs for the first down. Dual Threet yo.
M28	1	10	Shotgun 2-back Trips	Base 4-3	Run	Triple option dive	McGuffie	-3
Molk(-1) owned by Newkirk again, and the unblocked backside DE didn't really bother with contain. McGuffie is forced into Newkirk and goes down.
M25	2	13	Shotgun Empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	-2
Threet throws it low, taking Odoms off his feet. (IN, 2, screen)
M23	3	15	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Post	Odoms	Inc
Good protection until a stunt gets a guy in on Threet just after he throws; still good enough to allow Odoms to come open for the first. Threet wings it to Tacopants; it's even over the head of the Wisconsin safety. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-3, 7 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M17	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	End around	Odoms	-3
This just has no chance from the start, as both linebackers read this easily and shoot upfield. I will note that Massey is pushed five yards in the backfield by the DE by the time Odoms gets to him, completely robbing him of any vague opportunity to get the corner.
M14	2	13	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Sweep	McGuffie	4
This is a new play for Michigan, a sweep that's supposed to get outside the defensive end. Massey blocks down on him (and is steadily shoved backwards, naturally) as Schilling pulls outside. Brown acts as a lead blocker. This pretty much works, but McGuffie(-1) goes to the wrong side of Brown's block, running into David Molk and eventually being tackled from behind.
M18	3	9	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	Improvisation	N/A	Inc
Ferrara(-2) beaten by his man; Threet steps up into the pocket as if to run and throws a sort of jump pass that goes straight into the ground because he' getting plowed. Probably lucky that wasn't on target. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, Ferrara -2) Ferrara got called for holding, too.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-6, EO 1Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M45	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Run	Zone read keeper	Threet	0
Aaaaaaargh. Wisconsin inexplicably in its nickel package and Michigan really gashes them open for what would be an excellent gain for McGuffie except Threet's kept the ball and gets run down by a responsible DE.
M45	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Slant	Hemingway	Inc
Threet airmails it. Maybe he had to get it over the linebacker, but this one is way up there. (IN, 1, protection 1/1)
M45	3	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	Draw	McGuffie	0
Mike Massey runs right by a linebacker on an otherwise well-blocked play; that linebacker smokes McGuffie.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-6, 13 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O48	1	10	Shotgun 2-back Trips	Base 4-3	Run	Triple option pitch	McGuffie	-2
Wow, I hate this playcall. We're again using the unbalanced formation that must be a run, basically, and we're running an option to the short side of the field with a safety rolled up over there. Schilling has no chance to block the weakside LB, who isn't taking the dive fake seriously, and Threet's forced to pitch. It's way behind McGuffie and fumbled; Wisconsin recovers but out of bounds.
50	2	12	I-Form 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	McGuffie	5
Well, when you've got six blockers and they've got seven guys in the box there's always an unblocked guy. This play is decently blocked, as Moundros takes out the DE and Schilling makes the SLB orbit around him, yielding a small crease. Some delay caused by fallen players allows Casillas to scrape and tackle.
O45	3	7	Shotgun Empty	Nickel	Pass	Cross	Koger	Inc
Koger gets no separation and is covered; Threet tries to force it in. The ball is deflected skyward and manages to hit the field harmlessly. Even if completed this was going to be four yards on third and seven. Molk beaten by Chapman and hurled to the ground; refs miss a holding call. (BR, 1, protection 1/2, Molk -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-6, 9 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M18	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Out	Odoms	Inc
Casillas all over this; it looks like he tugs Odoms' jersey to come over the top and break it up or at least make this a tough catch. (CA, 2, protection 1/1)
M18	2	10	Shotgun Trips	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	McGuffie	1
Ortmann(-2) lets the DE go right by him, forcing McGuffie to cut into the backside DE.
M19	3	9	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Improv	Mathews	Inc
Wisconsin rushes three; Threet can't find anyone and starts rolling around. He signals Mathews to break his route deep; Mathews hesitates for a second and then does so, getting a step or two on the defender. Threet throws it long. Griese theorizes that Mathews didn't break deep quickly enough but I saw this from the stands and Threet was looking directly at the guy and just overthrew him. This isn't exactly a precision route, here, this is sandlot stuff, and Threet missed an open guy. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-13, 4 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M10	1	10	I-Form Twins	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	McGuffie	0
I'm not sure if this is Ortmann or Molk or just McGuffie heading to a spot where there can be no angles to block the LB, but Casillas isn't blocked. Moosman got beaten by the DT, and those guys meet McGuffie at the LOS.
M10	2	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	McGuffie	1
Molk(-1) shoved back into the path of the play, forcing McGuffie to cut behind him. Ortmann(-1) failed to cut the backside DE, and because of the cutback the safety can come up and nail McGuffie without bothering with Minor.
M11	3	9	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Post	Odoms	Int
Miles overthrown and intercepted. Ton of time for Threet, though, there's that. (IN, 0, protection 3/3) Some discussion between Odoms and Threet about the route afterward, as Odoms clearly started a square in and then decided to go to the post instead. He should have stuck with the (very open) in. Even if the route didn't help, this was still thrown directly at a safety.
Drive Notes: Interception, 0-13, 1 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M39	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	Hail Mary	--	Int
Molk and Moosman combine to let the DT through, getting Threet crushed as he attempts to throw a hail mary. (BA, 0, protection 0/2, Molk, Moosman -1)
Drive Notes: Interception, 0-19, EOH. Let us never speak of this half again.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M29	1	10	Shotgun Empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Out	Brown	11
Simple out that opens up because I think the LB misplays it and gets out of position. Threet accurate, it's caught, it's a first down, let's have a party. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M40	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Brown	0
Man, they are really slanting hard to the playside on all these things. Moosman(-1) just sort of wanders by the backside DT, who slants so hard Schilling can't get to him. Meanwhile, Molk is just discarded by Newkirk and three guys are all over Brown at the snap.
M40	2	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	Dumpoff	Brown	3
Newkirk goes right around McAvoy(-2), forcing Threet to scramble up into the pocket. He dinks a little dumpoff to Brown; Casillas lights him up. Still better than the alternative. (CA, 3, protection 0/2, McAvoy -2)
M43	3	7	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	Throwback screen	Brown	-3
Wisconsin swarms this; Mathews, Ortmann, everyone miss blocks. (CA, 3, screen)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-19, 12 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Slant	Mathews	Inc
UW corner reads Threet, as he's staring this down, jumps the route, and nearly intercepts. Carlos Brown's wheel route was coming open, FWIW. (BR, 0, protection 1/1)
M20	2	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Mathews	13
Threet drops back, surveys the field, and finds Mathews on a deep hitch. Excellent timing, but the throw is a bit wobbly and Mathews ends up getting hit as he hauls it in. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
M33	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Long handoff	Mathews	5
Hey, it's positive yards. (CA, 3, screen)
M38	2	5	Shotgun Empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Out	McGuffie	Inc
Same little out designed to get the LB in space against the running back, but this time there's a corner in a short zone about to nail McGuffie when he catches it. Threet throws it way wide. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
M38	3	5	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	Rollout scramble	Threet	5
Nobody's open as Threet reaches the sideline so he turns into a runner, manages to juke a DL, and fall forwards, reaching out for the first down as he falls. Excellent effort. It's just short. (TA)
M43	4	In	I-Form Twins	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	Grady	4
Double from Molk and Moosman(+1) gets the DT moving backwards; Moundros crushes the linebacker. Grady makes this easily.
M47	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Improv	Odoms	Inc
Another rollout and Threet again can't find anyone open. Odoms runs a little out, then breaks downfield—don't think this is part of the route, just a thing you do when your plans go awry. Threet throws it to him—he's got a couple steps on Casillas—but is well short. (IN, 0, protection 1/1) Odoms didn't have his head around anyway, BTW.
M47	2	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Mathews	16
Route is actually sort of a triple move, a slant and go and hitch that gets the corner's hips turned and Mathews wide open. Threet hits him. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O37	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	McGuffie	6
Wisconsin is now down to six guys in the box, so this stuff is going to be more plausible. Not a stretch but Wisconsin is in stretch mode so McAvoy(+1) just plows Newkirk down the line and Ortmann blows up a linebacker who stepped the wrong way. The backside DE closes down McGuffie after a decent gain. We will go back to this on the Minor touchdown.
O31	2	4	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Triple option dive	Grady	3
This two-back is the weird formation where both RBs are lined up to Threet's left. Good push from the OL, though McAvoy loses his block after a moment. His guy and the unblocked DE close Grady down; he powers forward using power(!) for a few.
O28	3	1	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Triple option dive	Grady	2
Same play; McAvoy is again discarded by the Wisconsin DE, this time with more authorita, and Grady is met at the LOS. He manages to get the first.
O26	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Hitch and go	Mathews	Inc
They get the defensive back but he recovers very nicely, first getting a bump on Mathews that forces him out of bounds—ref throws a hat, so even if caught this might not stand—and then raking at Mathews' arm as the ball arrives, forcing him to try a one-handed catch. Good throw. (CA+, 1, protection 2/2)
O26	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Throwaway	--	Inc
Threet can't find anyone, kind of panics, wanders around, looks like a disaster about to befall us, and chucks it out of bounds. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)
O26	3	10	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Seam	Koger	26
Schilling actually get banged backwards by the DE and ends up on his butt; Molk peels back and lays into him, giving Threet time to look off a safety and come to Koger on a seam route. It's a little high but totally catchable; Koger reels it in... touch... down? (CA+, 3, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Touch... down?, 7-19, 2 min 3rd Q. Where did that come from?
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M12	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Pass	Slant?	Stonum?	Inc
This pass is wildly errant. Threet makes the “it got tipped” motion afterwards, and I'm not calling him a liar, so... (BA, 0, protection 2/2)
M12	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	--	0
Good protection and Threet has time to survey. The little timer that goes “bing” goes off and he starts scrambling around. Wisconsin guys peel off and bring him down. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)
M12	3	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Hitch	Stonum	Inc
Stonum drives off the defender and gets himself open past the sticks; Threet airmails it. Good protection again. (IN, 1, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-19, 14 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M15	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	Slant and go	Mathews	Inc
Flare screen to McGuffie is faked, which gets a bite from both DBs to that side. Safety further held by the slant route Mathews is running and by the time it's revealed to be a deep route Mathews is gone. Threet lays it out there pretty nicely but it's just a tad long. Mathews makes a diving attempt at it; it goes through his hands. (CA+, 2, protection 2/2)
M15	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Draw	Minor	1
Wisconsin stunts this to death, slanting a DE into what would normally be the running late and stunting a DE around into the area Minor tries to take it when the middle is all jmmed up. Our rock, theeir paper.
M16	3	9	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Mathews	14
Good route, good timing, good throw. If we could only do this like more than once every fourth play. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M30	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	Throwaway	--	Inc
These are all little short routes; Threet is indecisive and can't find someone for any gain at all. He eventually rolls out and gets rid of it. (TA, 0, protection 1/1). Tackles were cutting their guys and after they got up they were going to make a Threet sandwich.
M30	2	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Pass	Post	Odoms	Inc
Excellent protection and Odoms comes open between levels in the zone; Threet throws it well behind him. (IN, 0, protection 2/2) Illegal substitution follows.
M25	3	15	Shotgun Empty	Nickel	Pass	Seam	Minor	Inc (Pen+15)
Actually a gorgeous throw looped in to Minor here 35 yards downfield. It's laid right in, and Minor just drops it. Wisconsin guys converging made it hard but even if they weren't around this one was getting dropped. (DO, 2, protection 2/2.) Roughing the passer call bails Michigan out.
M40	1	10	Shotgun Empty	Nickel	Pass	Cross	Odoms	8
Threet finally checks down, finding Odoms underneath the zone. Odoms does a good job of cutting it up quickly and making the most of it. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M48	2	2	Shotgun Trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	Inc
Thrown too far in front of him. Better than the alternative, I guess, but... man, Threet's been bad at these. I told you we'd miss Chad Henne's unerring perfection on little pissant screens. Wisconsin was jumping this anyway; we really need to mix in that bubble screen fake play more often. (IN, 0, screen)
M48	3	2	Shotgun Trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Scramble	Threet	7
Mathews is covered so Threet comes down to Odoms; also covered. He feels pressure from behind; again, we've had the OTs cut the DEs and there's no way they're staying down so he takes off running, picking up the first down. (TA, 0, protection 1/1)
O45	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	Swing	Minor	11
Moosman(-1) beaten by Chapman but slow-like so it's not a disaster. Threet again has to check down, this time coming down to Minor on a little swing route. Well thrown and timed so he's got room to tiptoe down the sideline, picking up a first down before Casillas gets out to him. (CA, 3, protection 1/2, Moosman –1)
O36	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	36
Wisconsin's got guys out covering the bubble screen and only six in the box now; they blitz both linebackers and Michigan goes back to the down-block cutback thing they ran earlier with McGuffie. Schilling and McAvoy shove their guys along the line far enough for Minor to shoot up between them and the backside DE, who's trying to keep contain. Minor is instantly into the secondary, just a safety between him and the endzone. He glides in. Replay to your mother.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-19, 10 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O3	2pt	2pt	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Pass	Sack	--	Fail
This is the disembodied two point attempt after the Thompson TD. Threet rolls and rolls and rolls and can't find anyone and gives up; he should try gunning this at some point; there's nothing to lose. (BR, 0, protection N/A)
Drive Notes: XP failed, 20-19, 10 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M23	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Run	Zone read keeper	Threet	58
Well... dios mio, man. The backside DE sells out to crush Minor on what looks like the same blocking scheme Michigan had on the touchdown with the exception of the tackle, who doesn't block down, instead moving to the second level to pick up a linebacker. The linebacker heads outside, McAvoy gets just enough of his guy, and Threet lopes through the hole between them. The deep safety bit on the Minor fake, too, so Threet's gone until Casillas can track him down. Buffalo stampede replay.
O19	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Grady	4
Both DTs get doubled; Schilling and Moosman blow their guy back off the ball. The backside DE is still crashing hard even after what just happened; he tackles Grady from behind.
O15	2	6	Shotgun Trips	Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	McGuffie	10
Same play as the Minor TD, etc. Chapman slides through the OL (-1 Moosman or Molk, take your pick); McAvoy, on the other hand, blows his guy down the line. The DE is held outside just enough for McGuffie to scoot by; both he and Chapman make diving arm tackle attempts that McGuffie powers through.
O5	1	G	Shotgun 2-TE	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	McGuffie	2
Again good push down the line, but Ortmann runs right by the linebacker he should be taking, IMO. McAvoy got burrowed backward, too; McGuffie encounters resistance at the line and sort of jumps for a couple yards.
O3	2	G	Shotgun 2-TE	Base 4-3	Pass	Yakety Sax	--	-1
Threet fumbles the snap and by the time he recovers it he's getting swarmed under. He manages to get back to the LOS somehow. (TA, 0)
O4	3	G	I-Form Twins	Base 4-3	Run	Zone left(!)	McGuffie	4
Oh, I remember you. Molk(+1) does a great job getting his helmet across Newkirk and driving him back. McAvoy pops a linebacker, McGuffie runs through a tackle, and it's a touchdown.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 28-20, 5 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M8	1	10	I-Form Twins	Base 4-3	Run	Zone left(!)	Grady	3
Momentary double on Newkirk fails and he gets playside of Molk, forcing Grady to cut back into a number of unblocked defenders. He gets what he can.
M11	2	7	I-Form Twins	Base 4-3	Run	Zone right	McGuffie	1
Molk(-1) again just shoved back and back and back into the path of the play; Schilling(-1) also lost his guy, who the fullback has to pick up. McGuffie cuts back into more unblocked dudes.
M12	3	6	I-Form 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Inside zone	McGuffie	3
This time the fullback shoots backside and there is a crease as he blocks the backside DE and Schilling takes the WLB. However, the MLB is completely untouched—more defenders than blockers here—and closes McGuffie down after a short gain.
Drive Notes: Punt, 27-19, 1 min 4th Q.

Wha' happen?

Ah, I see you've awoken after beating yourself into unconsciousness midway through the third quarter. Well, I have good news: we won.

Wai, dude. Wai.

How?

Would you believe the offense rattled off three straight 80 yard touchdown drives, the last featuring a 58-yard quarterback keeper by Steven Threet?

Depends. Is this a Deep Space 9 episode taking place in the mirror universe? Is everyone wearing black leather?

I've been trying to figure that out for days, man.

Chart?

Chart.

As always, the Threetsheridammit chart legend.

STEVEN THREET

Opponent	DO	CA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
Utah	1	11	5	1	3	2	1
Miami	-	6	4	1	-	2	-
Notre Dame	3	12	5	2	1	-	-
Wisconsin	1	15	9	3	7	2	1

With Threet firmly entrenched as the starter I'll discontinue listing Sheridan's numbers and retrieve them should they become relevant again (and I don't jump off something tall).

I'm also not going to include a chart for "downfield" throws because the vast majority of the above were downfield attempts: Michigan only attempted five screens (3 CA, 2 IN, none successful).

That is a hell of a lot of throws, many of them extracurricular in nature. (By that I mean not DO, CA, or IN.) There are a whopping 13 throws in other categories, a large number of them TAs. Some of those were okay, as Threet scrambled for a couple first downs. Some were actual throwaways when he couldn't find receivers. When the TA count starts creeping above three or four that's an indication the quarterback isn't reading the defense very well.

Also, the vast majority of these throws came in the second half. In the first half I have 11 of 38 passing attempts.

As far as how the day went? Poorly. In past years we've had a metric where you add up all the good (CA+DO), add up all the bad (everything else other than PR), and take out all the screens to come up with a Competence Ratio. Threet's competence ratio in this game is 48%, which is below the 50-50 Mallett line and well short of the 2/3rds ratio that is a normal good quarterback. This was a major step back from the Notre Dame game.

That wasn't all Threet's fault, but we'll tackle the ancillaries later.

While we're at it, the receiverchart:

	This Game					Totals
Player	0	1	2	3	0	1	2	3
Clemons	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	2/2
Stonum	1	0/1	-	-	4	0/3	3/3	2/2
Mathews	1	0/1	1/2	3/3	4	2/5	2/4	7/8
Hemingway	-	0/1	-	-	1	0/2	2/2	-
Odoms	4	-	1/2	1/1	5	0/1	3/4	12/13
Babb	-	-	1/1	1/1	-	-	1/1	1/1
Massey	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Butler	-	-	-	-	2	1/1	0/1	2/2
Koger	-	0/1	-	1/1	-	0/1	-	1/1
McGuffie	-	-	-	1/1	2	-	-	9/9
Brown	-	-	-	3/3	-	-	-	3/3
Shaw	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3/3
Minor	-	-	0/1	1/1	1	0/1	0/1	3/3
Moundros	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	-

You would like to see more of those 2s getting caught, especially since a couple would have been large gains if hauled in.

Of note are the many balls attempted to Odoms that were totally errant. On at least one of these Odoms didn't help his quarterback out by being indecisive on an option route, and there are theories on the internets that Threet's day was better than it looked because the receivers aren't helping him out any. That may have been the cause on some of the throwaways; it was not much of a factor on any of the balls Threet actually threw. It's one thing to throw a timing route on which the WR isn't there or ready or throwing into coverage because he's running his route wrong; it's another entirely if you're overthrowing guys by yards and not even forcing safeties to move to pick your pass off.

Only five screens when Michigan's line was getting whipped?

I know. That's under 15% of Michigan's attempts in an offense that was simply mad for screens in Rodriguez's tenure at West Virginia. Hell, Michigan ran more screens than that under Lloyd Carr. What's going on? Well, the screens aren't working. Michigan's five screens went for –3, –2, –3, 5, and 0 yards and the five-yarder wasn't even a real screen, it was a long handoff to Mathews upon which no one missed a block because no one was blocking.

That is epically ugly. A dossier of reasons:

• Threet is bad at throwing them. This, I think, was the A-1 reason Nick Sheridan was named the starter before the Utah game: Threet consistently screwed up the simple throws that are the bread and butter of Rodriguez's passing-ish offense. In this game he took Odoms off his feet on one throw and threw another one well in front of him; against Notre Dame he threw the Minor fumble backwards, took Odoms off his feet again, and turned a touchdown into a field goal attempt by not throwing a Babb screen far enough inside.
• Our receivers and tight ends suck at blocking. Oh my God watching Mike Massey is frustrating. If he was on the field for every play my veiny fan rage at him would be approaching levels last seen when his brother was gamely attempting to set a Guinness world record for tallest defensive tackle.
• Our dodgy offensive line and general suckosity of offense causes teams to jump the routes with near-impunity. We burned Notre Dame a couple times with the fake bubble screen; we need to go back to that with more frequency.

I only see one of these issues getting fixed this year—the last one—and expect we'll be groaning about the lack of a screen game until 2009. Even in the Year of Infinite Pain, we always had Henne throwing a stupid bubble screen to Breaston. Those were the days.

About the line: I don't think they were all getting whipped.

Well, then who was?

Here's your protection metric: 37/46, Moosman –3, Ferrara –2, Molk –2, McAvoy –2.

Notice a distinct lack of anything? Tackles. If you go over the somewhat arbitrary +/- handed out on running plays above, you will see a ton of minuses handed out to the interior line and the occasional – to Schilling.

That was the story of Wisconsin's defense: their active defensive tackles murdered Michigan's interior line all day against both the pass and the run. Notice that Michigan's second-half run game was successful largely when it completely avoided Wisconsin DTs or fooled them into slanting away from the play. For example, the Minor touchdown run was a counter to the zone stretch the Wisconsin D was expecting.

The good news, such as it is, is that Wisconsin's starting tandem is probably the best in the conference. Newkirk and Chapman are both seniors and returning starters (at least sort of; Nick Hayden was around last year but there was extensive rotation) on a run defense that was above-average a year ago. Penn State might be better and Ohio State always has a lot of talent; other than that there's not a whole lot of epic destruction awaiting us outside of Northwestern's inexplicably good John Gill. (We're fortunate to have Kroul & Unusual Punishment off the schedule.) If the Notre Dame game was an outlier in the sucky opponent direction, Wisconsin is an equally large outlier in the other direction. (Notre Dame also spent the entire game in an inexplicable nickel for the second straight year, further supporting my theory that Corwin Brown is a mole.)

But, hey, the only thing Matt Shaughnessy did all game was take a critical roughing the passer call, so that's got to be worth something, right?

What was with that funky formation?

You mean the one in which Michigan had two backs in the backfield and three wide receivers to one side? I don't know. That's vaguely acceptable when the guy who's covered up is a tight end, because if you decide to pass you can use him as a blocker. But when it's a slot receiver? The defense can basically ignore Mathews because he can't go downfield, and to date every play run out of this formation has been a run. An ineffective run. I can't imagine there's anything particularly effective about it that offsets the high cost of having a nonentity on the field.

And while we're on the topic of this kind of bitching that reminds me of Debord, yes, Michigan only passed once on first down in the first half until the near-disaster Hail Mary at the end. This was sort of similar to the Penn State game last year, in which Mallett was almost never suffered to throw on first down until Michigan fell behind. I complained about it then and this was similar, though to be fair it's not like the pass attempts they did provide offered any confidence that passing was a better way to go.

Heroes?

Yikes. Honestly, no one on offense had a particularly good day. Threet showed tremendous resilience to come through in the second half but even then he was pretty rough.

Goats?

The interior line had a very rough day, and Mike Massey got yanked for a true freshman for a reason.

What does it mean for Illinois?

Illinois has gotten shredded by the real teams they've gone up against but our offense has proven itself at least partially fictional. I haven't taken a particularly close look but I have to assume the sledding will be easier for the interior line, though not as easy as it was against Notre Dame. Penn State and Missouri both obliterated Illinois on the ground. And in the air. All sorts of stuff, really.

We've got a downgrade in the Threet competence projection again, though, and it's hard to see a ton of long drives. It's also hard to see one first down in a half; mid-twenties, maybe?

Quarterback

Rating: 1.

QB	Yr.
Nick Sheridan	So.*
Steven Threet	Fr.*
Justin Feagin	Fr.

The last time Michigan's quarterback situation appeared so dire it was 1995, Lloyd Carr's first year, and the quarterbacks were true freshman Scott Dreisbach and walk-on Brian Griese. Michigan was playing in the "Kickoff Classic" that year against Virginia. Michigan Stadium baked, Dreisbach started, and the team sucked. Down 17-0 at the half, Michigan looked lifeless.

One of the weirdly vivid memories of my life is listening to an affable Virginia fan tell us Michigan was not going to win the game if they kept letting that freshman throw the ball. We nodded in rueful agreement.

He would turn out to be wrong by one Mercury Hayes toe. Dreisbach finished with 374 yards on 52 attempts,* Michigan won, and all that quarterback stuff was quickly forgotten until the next week and the week after and especially when Dreisbach got injured and Brian Griese was called forth from obscurity and inserted into the starting lineup.  This was good in the long term. In the short term, it was brutal:

Name	Att	Comp	Int	Comp %	Yds	YPC	YPA	TD
Brian Griese	238	127	10	53.4	1577	12.4	6.6	13
S Dreisbach	106	56	3	52.8	850	15.2	8.0	3

Michigan quarterbacks combined for 16 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, completed about 53% of their passes, and struggled to crack seven yards per attempt with an All-Star cast of future NFL receivers: Amani Toomer, Jay Reimersma, Mercury Hayes.

So none of that was particularly good but the team didn’t exactly implode. Tim Biakabutuka ran and ran and ran and then ran some more in a 31-23 win over Ohio State and Michigan went 9-4. Not a nuclear waste site by any stretch of the imagination. So… there’s a chance.

This year, your nominal starter is the walk-on and the freshmen appear set to wait in line. Nick Sheridan (left) is the walk-on. He’s the son of Bill Sheridan, currently the linebackers coach for the Giants and for three years a defensive position coach under Lloyd Carr. He was honorable mention all conference in high school. He’s about six foot, maybe six one, supposedly more mobile than the competition but more limited in terms of arm strength. And that’s all anyone knows about him.

What limited intelligence we have from practice reports indicates Sheridan is a typical Northwestern quarterback, noodle-armed but bright and mobile-ish. He’s been more consistent than the competition, throws well on the run, and contrary to rumor can heave the ball farther than five yards, as this video of the “Beanie Bowl” indicates. He could be a non-liability who successfully keeps the heat off the other skill position players, and how’s that for Backhanded Compliment Of The Year?

Sheridan’s main competitor is redshirt freshman Steven Threet (right), who enrolled early at Georgia Tech only to bolt for Michigan when Jason Forcier saw the writing on the wall and transferred. In January the writing reformed itself to read “please come back Jason,” but what can you do? Hypothetical newspaper-bearing time travel guy should stop screwing with Michigan fans and tell Forcier to stick it out.

Threet is a classic dropback artillery piece in the Navarre/Mallett/Grbac mold, 6’5” and ponderous. He was a well-respected recruit, getting four stars from the gurus and landing in the top ten pro-style quarterbacks, but reports from practice have him tentative, erratic, and slow both mentally and physically. In the winter he was lauded as an emerging leader who the team actually liked, unlike that Mallett guy; this has not translated to the field. Sheridan’s likely to struggle at some point and Rodriguez keeps saying he wants “two guys he can win with,” so Threet will see the field at some point. He’s reputed to have a bigger arm and more big-play potential… for both teams.

Freshman Justin Feagin talks a great game. He’s got the meaningless puff quote down cold. See this on Pryor:

"What if he does go to Michigan? Shame on me if I sit back and think he's better than me. If he wants to play quarterback, we'll have to fight each other for the job. If I win the job, then I'll know I beat out the No. 1 quarterback in the nation."

He’s also a heck of an athlete, the small-school player of the year in Florida last year and third in their Mr. Football voting. LSU and Miami offered him as a WR/DB.

Unfortunately, he does not appear to be much of a quarterback at this point. Rodriguez claimed Feagin would “have to make an impression in the first two weeks” if he was going to be a serious candidate for playing time; a recent curtailment of his snaps indicates this impression has not been made. A week or so ago, Rodriguez made it clear he was not an option early: “He's not close to being ready.”

I do have some inside baseball indicating that the coaching staff expects to work him in at some point during the season just to see what he can do; the most likely outcome is a few drives here and there that end poorly and a position swap once Beaver and Newsome hit campus in January.

If David Cone sees the field something has gone very wrong.

Running Back & Fullback

Rating: 4.

RB	Yr.	FB	Yr.
Brandon Minor	Jr.	Mark Moundros	Jr.*
Carlos Brown	Jr.	Vince Helmuth	So.
Sam McGuffie	Fr.	Kevin Grady	Jr.*
Mike Shaw	Fr.	--------	----

Like quarterback, Michigan loses a four-year starter and program icon here. Unlike quarterback, there are six options of at least moderate viability and chances are some player or combination of players emerges into a strong Big Ten starter. Four players were listed as co-starters on the first depth chart; they’re discussed here.

Brandon Minor
2006
Vandy 25-yarder
State's too easy
2007
Zone during  The Horror
ND’s too easy
Sweet spin
Truckin’
Stiff-armin’
Plowin’
MN is too easy

Brandon Minor is your nominal starter. After a few exciting glimpses his freshman year, Minor proved to be just okay in the more extended audition granted by Hart's ankle problems.  Minor was healthy during the spring while Brown was not and is reputed by all to be a demonic worker, so he is the first back in practice. For whatever reason, though, I remain skeptical of his ability. I went back and scoured the UFRs, finding these comments:

Oregon

Minor is an obvious step down [from Mike Hart].

Notre Dame

Brandon Minor missed an obvious read on one of the carries I charted above; I think the running back job is going to be wide open next year. Minor runs really upright and seems perpetually on the verge of getting his clock cleaned; he also clearly lacks Hart's ability to pick through traffic. The spin move on Zbikowski was sweet, though.

Illinois

Both Brown and Minor showed some indication they will be decent to good Big Ten runners next year.

Minnesota

Minor, I thought, was the better of the backs, consistently running with power and picking up YAC.

That's not  entirely helpful when I'm trying to make the case for someone else to start.

Numbers might be: he averaged 4.3 yards a carry, eight tenths of a yard off both Hart and Carlos Brown's 5.1. Even if you hack Brown's 85 yard touchdown against Minnesota down to Minor's long of 46 yards (also picked up against Minnesota), Brown holds a significant edge in YPC.

Minor runs too upright and stiff for my tastes. He's clearly slower than Brown and the fleet freshmen, has little wiggle, and tends to plow over and through defenders instead of trying to avoid them. Sometimes this ends with Minor spectacularly trucking someone; sometimes it ends with Minor taking a wicked shot from a headhunting linebacker or safety.

In the best case, Barwis gives Minor the half-step he needs to get the corner and he’s a poor man’s version of Darren McFadden. In the worst case he’s David Underwood. He must be physically dominant to be effective because he's not going to make people miss much and he doesn't have Hart's remarkable balance. IMO, he gets his fair share of carries throughout the year but is clearly less effective than at least one other tailback and possibly two.

Carlos Brown

2007

Loping vs Purdue

Behind Jake

Tripping over Leman

Nice first down

85-yarder

Carlos Brown has a knack for picking up annoying hand injuries. Last year Brown busted his hand in fall practice and missed the early portion of the season; in spring he cut or broke his finger or something in a “freak weightlifting accident.” I suspect Barwis bit it off and spent the summer growing a replacement in a jar.

He was also the more impressive non-Hart tailback in 2007, deploying his speed to good effect and, as noted, coming out of last season with a Hart-matching 5.1 YPC thanks to the exceptional generosity of Minnesota’s defense.

After his first extended action I summarized him like so:

He seems like the exact opposite of Hart: a guy with questionable vision and little in the way of moves who has the speed to jet into the endzone if you give him a crease (and he sees it). The questionable vision could be due to inexperience -- he spent the spring at defensive back, then broke his hand -- and might develop in the future; Hart-like moves are not likely to. His two slashing touchdown runs were encouraging and he seems much less likely to get decapitated by a charging safety than Minor; he'll have a shot at the job next year. We're likely to see a four- or even five-headed rotation early.

Brown's been moonlighting at quarterback in what must feel like a reprise of his high school career, when he was a quarterback in name only tasked with using his extraordinary athleticism to take Incredibly Surprising Quarterback Draws further than they had any right to go. If Brown does take live snaps at QB, it will be part of a Wildcat (or wild mustelidae) package; he's little threat to throw the ball except as a diversion.

Brown was a big recruit and has the sort of outside speed that Steve Slaton did; I think he’ll end up with the slight edge.

Sam McGuffie needs no introduction. Mixtape ho:

He flips over people for fun. People leap over him for fun. When he leaps over people for fun and there is no fun because people tackle him they post it on Youtube like it’s a big deal. He is an internet phenomenon. If you try to bring any of these things up to him he will scowl at you. His teammates call him “Vanilla Ice,” which no doubt also draws scowls.

I’m on record expecting McGuffie to kick ass:

I'm not one of those who scoffs at recruiting rankings, but their [Rivals’] continued skepticism about McGuffie is puzzling. He has the offers (Michigan, Florida, USC amongst a host of others), the stats at perhaps the highest level of competition available in high school football, and reel after reel of jaw-dropping highlights. He has the fourth-highest SPARQ rating in the history of whatever the hell a SPARQ rating is because he showed up at a combine before his junior year of high school and ripped off a 4.32 40, a 3.83 shuttle -- I'm not exactly sure if my calculations are correct, but I believe this means he finished the shuttle before he started it -- and a 41' vertical leap.

He's a little small, and his his disappointing senior season was injury-wracked to the point where his nationally televised showcase game saw him spinning 180 degrees before contacting tacklers and driving meekly at the feet of oncoming blitzers, but even the skeptical Rivals named him last year's best running back in space and publicly wondered why he was heading for Michigan instead of a school that would spread him all over the field like Wes Welker—white guy, natch—and take advantage of his crazy speed and cutting ability.

Uh, check. He’s nominally first on the depth chart already, and will see time all over the field. It begins.

A second freshman, Ohioan Michael Shaw (video), was listed as a wide receiver on the fall roster but features as a tailback on the depth chart. He was a running back in high school; he figures to spend quite a bit of time motioning to and from the slot.

The hype is building on Shaw because he chose the right time to juke a couple defenders and plow slot-sized freshman cornerback Boubacar Cissoko. The media was there doling out oohs and aahs as appropriate and a practice legend is born.

There’s more to Shaw than proficiency in the “Michigan drill,” though. He hovered just outside the recruiting sites’ top 100 lists and spent the spring tearing up the track until he was banned for transfer-related shenanigans. He is fast. And he is fast. And he is fast. At the Penn Relays, Shaw won the 200 meters and anchored his team’s winning 4x100 and 4x200 relays, causing his coach to break down in tears:

“I’ve been coaching since the ‘60’s,” Coach Waggoner said of his 46.4 anchor, Mike Shaw, “and I’ve coached a lot of guys, but he’s one of the best.”

He is fast.

He is also other things. McGuffie's not the only guy drawing superlative praise from Fred Jackson. Jackson on the nagging injuries picked up by the starters:

"Those two guys right there, I PROMISE you that you stay nicked up too long, it's going to hurt you tremendously,'' Jackson said.

Because Shaw and McGuffie can play right now, he said.

Shaw and McGuffie are two of the most exciting freshmen he has ever coached at Michigan, he continued.

They're Justin Fargas fast, but can cut better.

Fargas-who-can-cut is this program’s Loch Ness monster.

Avery Horn is fast as hell but redshirted last year because he wasn't ready to play in college. He ripped off a couple impressive runs in what passed for the spring game but has received little mention in the fall and seems far down the depth chart. Michigan picked freshman Mike Cox over top-100 instate back Jonas Gray when both attended the Michigan camp; he was a middling recruit with offers from Maryland and BC and will probably redshirt.

Fullback

Both players who saw time return, but the position has changed significantly. Under Lloyd Carr the fullback was a thick-necked ogre tasked with smashing his face into linebackers. He was the target of maybe three or four passes a year and never, ever got to take a handoff (no, BJ Askew doesn’t count).

At West Virginia, Rodriguez deployed a thick-necked ogre who ripped off a 50-some yard touchdown against Oklahoma. Owen Schmitt was the hammer on option dives and an important outlet in the passing game; he touched the ball 59 times last year. Michigan fullbacks, as a unit, had three catches for eleven yards, all of them no doubt on third and long. This is why Rodriguez doesn’t actually have a “fullback.” Rather, he’s got an “MX” back, and he’s got to block and catch and run.

This is a projection based on some practice reports and common sense, but once Kevin Grady manages to process the copious amounts of alcohol no doubt still flowing through his veins, he might be the guy here. Grady doesn’t really fit in with the new offense except as a downhill runner and blocker and now that the "fullback" is a guy who is actually an important cog in the offense he might be amenable to a move, especially if/when it becomes clear that players quicker than he have a death grip on all the tailback carries.

Mark Moundros

2007

Debord Ugh

Crushing Gophers

Mark Moundros and Vince Helmuth are the more traditional options. You can find reasons either has an advantage over the other: Moundros is older and was the starter last year; Helmuth was more highly rated, should improve more quickly, and operated as a battering ram tailback at Saline High. I lean towards Helmuth.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

Rating: 3.

WR	Yr.	WR	Yr.	Slot	Yr.	TE	Yr.
Greg Mathews	Jr.	Toney Clemons	So.	Martavious Odoms	Fr.	Carson Butler	Jr.*
Junior Hemingway	So.	Darryl Stonum	Fr.	Terrence Robinson	Fr.	Mike Massey	Sr.*
James Rogers	So.	LaTerryal Savoy	Jr.*	Mike Shaw	Fr.	Kevin Koger	Fr.

Despite the early departures of Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington to the NFL, Michigan has stockpiled a considerable amount of talent at wide receiver and tight end and the dropoff shouldn’t be severe. There will be a dropoff, though, as no one on the roster save maybe Darryl Stonum can hope to replicate Manningham’s explosive deep routes, and Stonum is just a freshman.

Greg Mathews
Iowa scoop
NW waggle
NW post
2007
Easy ND score
PSU Cross
PSU Something
NW YAC
Pride comes before the fall

Junior Greg Mathews is the most experienced returning player. As a sophomore he was Michigan’s third receiver, catching 39 passes for 366 yards. A YPC under 10 always signals possession receiver and that’s Mathews’ rep going into his first year as Michigan’s primary target. The upside here is Jason Avant, a reliable guy on a variety of short routes with outstanding hands and the strength to get off a jam. (We haven't actually seen the outstanding hands, yet, as Mathews has been reliable but unspectacular in the catching-stuff category, but Avant's reliability was only a theory before Braylon left.)

Mathews is unlikely to be much of a vertical threat, however, and a credible deep threat will be important when it comes to keeping safeties from breathing down Sheridan's neck.

Past Mathews things are uncertain. Four or five players vie for one and a half spots. Sophomore Toney Clemons spent the spring working out of the slot because the only other alternative was walk-on Jim Potempa, a player so obscure that the Michigan Stadium public address announcer messed up his name more than once during his half-dozen garbage time carries last year. With the arrival of the impressive, tiny duo of Martavious Odoms and Terrence Robinson, Clemons is likely to move back to the outside where he belongs... eventually. Robinson's "tweaked" knee, about which more later, leaves Michigan with one credible slot option and that's a true freshman. Expect Clemons to move inside and out regularly; his long term home should be on the outside.

Junior Hemingway

2007

First catch

Junior Hemingway suffered a severe ankle sprain in the fall and remained limited by it throughout fall camp. Though recruiting guru opinions on him varied wildly, Hemingway had a ton of early offers from national powers and turned in a productive senior year. He seemed ahead of Clemons when the two were freshmen, but the new coaching staff hasn't seen him healthy. He may not make a contribution until midseason. The impression I got from the limited time he saw last year and all the recruiting info I gathered is that Hemingway was a version of Marquise Walker, a spectacular leaper and potential jump-ball threat that lacked something in top-end speed.

One player not lacking in top end speed, Darryl Stonum, was Michigan’s highest-rated recruit in the 2008 class. An NFL prototype wide receiver out of Houston, Stonum picked Michigan over USC, Florida, and everyone else. He’s a candidate for immediate playing time after enrolling early and participating in spring practices, and has a top-end ceiling on par with any of Michigan’s terror wide receivers from years past.

Normally the most optimistic projection for Stonum’s freshman year would be something similar to that turned in by Mario Manningham—27 catches, 433 yards, 6 touchdowns—but the early enrollment should help him see the field earlier and more frequently. Forty or even fifty catches is not out of the question.

Stonum’s listed as a co-starter at one outside receiver position with surprise LaTerryal Savoy, who’s seen almost no time in his three years in the program to date. Savoy was a sleeper out of Louisiana with no other major offers and seemed destined for a career of total obscurity until the moment the depth chart came out with his name atop the list. It’s doubtful Savoy’s suddenly become a much better receiver, so the bet here is that once Hemingway’s injury and Stonum’s inexperience subside so will Savoy’s prominence on the depth chart. He could be a Tyrece Butler sort who hauls in 10-12 catches.

Those five will be your main targets on the outside. If there is a severe need Michigan could strip the redshirt off freshman Roy Roundtree, the kid who decommitted from Purdue and set off the whole snake oil brouhaha. He’s gotten a few approving mentions from Rodriguez during his hourly press conferences, but Roundtree is about 6’3” and weighs as much as slot ninjas a half-foot shorter than him. A redshirt seems advisable.

Zion Babb and James Rogers are in hot competition for the title of most egregiously wasted redshirt of 2007; both bounced to and from the secondary, seeing meaningless snaps that did little to prepare them for roles they’re not going to have this year anyway. Neither was  big recruit. Rogers was a high school running back plucked from obscurity at Michigan’s camp; Babb was a middling recruit out of California. Rodriguez hasn’t mentioned either of them this fall and playing time is likely to be sparing. Rogers is reputed to be ahead of Babb.

Slot Receiver

The arrival of Rich Rodriguez brings with it a smurfy new position: slot receiver. In the spread ‘n shred these guys are the targets of all manner of different things that aim to get a little electron-sized bastard in open space against a linebacker or safety: option pitches, bubble screens, reverses, etc. This is all terribly exciting, as Michigan now threatens to have four or five Steve Breastons on the roster at all times. This should be a great boon in the return game; in the context of the offense it provides a ton of YAC opportunities that reduce the burden placed on the quarterbacks.

Michigan had none of these guys on the roster, or even in the recruiting class, until Rodriguez came aboard, but in the brief time allotted him he filled the position with authority. Martavious Odoms is from small-school Florida powerhouse Pahokee. His recruitment was extremely strange. He picked up an early offer from Notre Dame, and some months later he had a truly impressive collection for a 5’8” guy: Iowa, Rutgers, South Carolina, LSU, Oregon, Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn, and Rodriguez’s then-home of West Virginia.

Odoms’ reaction to all this was to sit around doing nothing in particular as most of those schools filled up their classes. There was a cursory visit to Auburn, some discussion of USF and a grayshirt offer from Miami—by then so jammed with players they were trying to get Odoms to campus as a track athlete—and then signing day came and Odoms... did nothing. He ended up signing a few days later, and Michigan fans scrambled to find out just who the heck this kid was.

He's small to the point where he only exists on alternate Tuesdays but he's been playing on Pahokee's varsity since he was 14 (he was an eighth grader at the time) and was smoking guys in the state championship game by the time he was a sophomore. Unlike many guys Odoms' size, he's always been a receiver, and few players can claim to have the extensive in-game experience he has. Practice reports have been universally positive, praising his hands, toughness, silky-smooth moves and ability to make the first tackler miss. I go back to what a Floridian high school football veteran and Friend of Blog told me unprompted when Odoms committed:

He's a tough SOB. Small cat, really tough, will remind you of Steve Smith. Very, very fast. I'm a huge Martavious Odoms fan, you'll love him.

Watch out for him; this is one of those guys you see named “Moss” playing for Miami and think to yourself "goddamn why can't we ever have kids like that?" Practice reports are very encouraging; he sounds like a Steve Breaston if Breaston had been a natural-born receiver. He’s listed as the starter in the slot for Utah. You will see plenty of him.

Meanwhile, Terrence Robinson’s recruitment got off to a slow start because a junior-year transfer forced him to sit out 2006; when he saw the field for Klein Oak in 2007 he outrushed, outplayed, and outshone top-100 Texas commit DeShaun Hales. He also did this:

Sweet.

Odoms spent five years at Pahokee smoking opponents and winning state championships while Robinson sat out with a transfer and played quarterback and running back and such; even if Robinson hadn’t “tweaked” his knee Odoms would be the odds on favorite to start in the slot. Robinson will be out for a few weeks and then work his way into the lineup.

Tight End 

Carson Butler
CMU waggle
Iowa cross
Iowa tiptoe
Iowa cross #2
2007
Good block(!)
PSU waggle
NW TD
Purdue waggle
Very bad block
Crossin’

Rich Rodriguez is going to have to use his tight ends a lot more than he did at West Virginia, because he’s got six of them and one has the potential to be ridiculously good as long as he’s not asked to block anyone ever. That fellow is Carson Butler, who came back from Lloyd Carr purgatory to claim the starting tight end spot after Mike Massey’s season-ending knee injury against Northwestern. Butler is the combination of freakish athletic gifts and frustrating mental errors that always gets dubbed “enigmatic” and this preview will be no exception: Carson Butler is one enigmatic mofo.

His promise is obvious. In the Citrus Bowl, he took a tight end screen and loped 65 yards downfield (skip to 2:00) with the bulk of the Florida secondary in pursuit; no one on the Florida team could make up ground and it took a safety with an angle to force him out inside the ten. That is a very fast man in an improperly large body. Properly deployed, he could be an All-American.

Butler’s drawbacks were equally severe, though. He false-starts with frustrating regularity. Asking him to block a pass rusher is asking for a helmet in your quarterback’s ribs. This outing against Michigan State was a typical performance:

Ugly, ugly, ugly, especially on the part of Butler, not only complete fail in pass protection but also the culprit on several run plays that went nowhere and the recipient of two critical penalties, one a stupid personal foul and the other a comically inept holding call on Michigan's final drive.

Is it much of a mismatch when your super-athletic tight end blocks like a 180 pound wide receiver? Not really. Evidently Rodriguez agrees since Butler is listed as an OR with not only Mike Massey but freshman Kevin Koger.

I have no idea what to expect out of Butler this year. He could be an All-American caliber performer (he’s unlikely to get enough catches to be an actual All-American) in a contract year for him. He could lose his job in week two.

Mike Massey, meanwhile, returns from that knee injury. In three years of sporadic onfield action, Massey hasn’t done much except almost make a couple of spectacular catches. He was the tentative starter last year until the injury in the Northwestern game. He seems totally average, a guy who will catch the balls he should and make most of the blocks he should but excel in no way whatsoever.

Freshman Kevin Koger picked Michigan over Ohio State and has been mentioned as someone who could see playing time this fall; he is the third co-starter on the depth chart. The most likely outcome is a smattering of snaps in preparation for a starting job next year.

Martell Webb

2007

Nice block

Martell Webb was Butler’s backup once Massey went down and sometimes the temporary starter when Butler had seriously pissed off the coaching staff; he made no catches and drew no notice in UFRs. He did have an excellent block against Minnesota, for whatever that’s worth. Webb was a nobody recruit when he committed to Michigan, but ended up a four-star to both Scout and Rivals; he’s also that 6’5” basketball player that’s all the rage at TE. He could be pretty good if given the opportunity. Given the surfeit of tight ends on the roster and some reported issues with drops in practice he probably won’t get that opportunity until 2009.

Steve Watson redshirted last year and seems to be way down the depth chart. Sparing playing time at best for him; watch for a potential move to the OL. Brandon Moore has an imposing frame at 6’6” and had been offered by a who’s who of college football programs by the time he committed to Michigan, but has gone totally unremarked upon this fall and seems a likely redshirt. If he fills out like whoah a move to tackle might be a possibility, but in high school he was regarded as a no-block TE with excellent hands.

Offensive Line

Rating: 1.

LT	Yr.	LG	Yr.	C	Yr.	RG	Yr.	RT	Yr.
Mark Ortmann	Jr.*	Tim McAvoy	Jr.*	David Molk	Fr.*	David Moosman	So.*	Steve Schilling	So.*
Perry Dorrestein	So.*	Ricky Barnum	Fr.*	Rocko Khoury	Fr.	John Ferrara	So.*	Dann O'Neill	Fr.

Perhaps the saddest indicator of the potential looming tragedy that is the Michigan offensive line is this: last year this depth chart went three deep. There’s no one but freshmen unlisted this year and, uh… four freshmen in the actual two-deep as hypothesized above.

The line took a hit it could not afford to sustain when certain starter and once upon a time touted recruit Cory Zirbel went down with a knee injury, forcing either David Molk or hastily converted defensive lineman John Ferrara into the starting lineup. Michigan is now one injury away from serious issues indeed.

Tackle

Hold me.

Steve Schilling

2007

Clocking Illini

Steve Schilling is the only returning starter on the line. Unfortunately for Michigan, last year he was frankly bad. There are a ton of mitigating factors—a freshman-year bout with mononucleosis was followed by a shoulder injury that spring, so he was basically being thrown on the field as a true freshman—but bad is bad. Vernon Gholston shattered him into little bits in the OSU game, which saw Shilling rack up a record –12 in pass protection. After the Illinois game he came in for a bit of criticism:

The problems in pass protection have been matched with frequent issues in the run game. One sack and a dangerously batted pass were on him as he failed to contain Illinois DE Doug Pilcher. At the moment, the great hope of the 2007 offensive line, that Schilling and Boren would turn out to be better than the departed Bihl/Riley combo, has not come to fruition. It looks highly unlikely to get there any time this year.

There is the potential for massive improvement here. Practice observers have indicated that Schilling now looks like a bonafide collegiate lineman after being far too small last year. As a freshman starter and former five-star recruit the expectation is he takes a major leap forward. He’d better.

Mark Ortmann draws the unenviable task of attempting to replace the #1 pick in the NFL draft. This is his fourth year in the program and practice reports had him on the verge of starting for the last two seasons, but there was presumably a reason he was stuck behind the uninspiring Schilling last year. This year he’s Michigan’s starting left tackle virtually by default, as there is one other non-freshman tackle on the roster. He could be okay. He could be really bad. We have no indicators either way.

Interior Line

David Moosman slides into Zirbel’s spot at right guard. He’s not from Wisconsin despite this blog’s repeated insistence that he is. He’s from Illinois, and I have inside info that he’s very nice to his GSIs. Moosman was a four-star recruit who picked Michigan over Wisconsin and is entering his third year in a college program, so he could be good.

Dave Molk is a feisty, undersized center from Illinois who was one of only two offensive line recruits in Lloyd Carr’s final Michigan class. He fits much better in this system than Carr’s, as it emphasizes his mobility and places a much smaller premium on size, but Rodriguez made it clear he was battling John Ferrara for a starting job. Two weeks ago Ferrara was a defensive lineman. Crap.

Tim McAvoy saw sporadic time last year at both guard spots due to injury and general lethargy on the part of others. Like Ortmann, he nas stuck behind an extremely uninspiring starter (Alex Mitchell) and doesn’t have much in the way of recruiting hype to fall back on. He’s been a defacto starter since the departure of Mr. Plow; lord knows if he’s going to be any good.

Backups

There are virtually no backups as long as Cory Zirbel's knee injury persists, and the word from Rodriguez is that could be the entire season. Mark Huyge exists, I guess, but he’s a redshirt freshman Michigan snatched away from the MAC. He’s unlikely to be ready. He’s also got a high ankle sprain and will miss a chunk of the season. As mentioned, John Ferrara was whiling his time away at defensive tackle until the Zirbel injury forced a position switch. Ferrara’s never blocked in his life. He may start.

At tackle, Perry Dorrestein is most famous for having his one-point-something GPA outed by the Ann Arbor News; insider buzz has been totally silent on him. He was a decent recruit.

It’s down to true freshmen, then. Rodriguez has specifically said these guys are not ready to play but the situation might demand it of them. Guard Ricky Barnum is the least unprepared. He was a highly-rated Florida commit until Rodriguez wandered by with his snake oil cart and has gotten some public praise; he’s probably the second guy off the bench in the event of issues with the interior line. Rocko Khoury has been garnering praise as a center and will start the season in the two deep.

God willing, four other freshmen will redshirt. Tackle Dann O’Neill was a top-100 recruit and has great upside but is not prepared to play this year. Kurt Wermers and Patrick Omameh would never, ever see the field in a normal year but this is not a normal year and they could wander onto the field if things get dire. Elliot Mealer is out with a shoulder injury suffered in the tragic Christmas Eve crash that killed his father and girlfriend.