football

This is my weekly feature to look back at summer previews, get egg on my face, look over what Michigan did, and then project the rest of the year as we get more real time data.  Last week's taking stock report can be found here.

Prelude:  I did season previews on most UM opponents - I skipped UNLV and Rutgers out of boredom, and OSU out of fear.  The rest are below

• BYU, Oregon State, Minnesota, Northwestern,
• Penn State, Maryland, Utah, MSU

---------------------------

Let's begin with a look back at my summer comments about Oregon State

 

I opened my OSU (NTOSU) preview with:

The other OSU is going to suck this year.  And most likely will really suck.   UM could probably not have lucked into a better Pac 12 opponent and aside from a few P5s ala Kansas could not have found an easier warm up game in the Power 5 conferences.

The Beavers are basically the MSU of forty years pre Dantonio.   A plucky team with limited depth that every so often puts together a good squad that gives big brother some troubles here or there and catches the national attention in "rivalry week" but otherwise operates in anonymity in a podunk town ..... This is not one of those plucky years. 

The team lost a NFL talent senior QB (who had a decent - not great - year by Pac 12 QB standards) and loses 9 of 11 starters off a near Indiana level defense (80ish in both FEI and S&P+ last year).

 

I ended that same preview with:

UM should win and win big.  Even with all our questions on offense.  The Beavers are an offense whose strength (running) plays into UM's perceived defensive strength.  They look like they will probably be starting a true freshman in his 2nd game.  And if not a RS FR who has never played.  The returning offensive starters must learn a whole new offensive system and UM fans will remember how ugly that looked in 2008 at times. The defense should be Indiana-ish.   Oregon State will be coming off a game hosting awful Weber State (2-10 last year) - that might be their highlight of the year with the Pac 12 going to a 9 game schedule. The Beavers should be stuffed in AA.

Considering the lack of real game data I am happy with these predictions. 

 

These were my views of the matchups this summer:

UM rush off v OSU rush def - Adv: UM.  Just nearly impossible to guage the Oregon State defense - while down the road I expect the Beavers to have a good defense with the combo of Andersen and Sitake this is not down the road - this is now.  Should be a great game for UM to work on their run game after what will be a very tough Utah defense in week 1.

UM pass off v OSU pass def - Adv: UM.   See comment above - Rudock is a 3 year starter and will be going against a bunch of green defensive players.  One hopes one of the secondary WR guys gets some confidence this game and begins a breakout season to join Butt and Darboh as actual threats.

OSU rush off v UM rush def - Adv: Wash.  If UM can limit the run game this should be a very ugly score line.  That said I do think Woods does get his yards even as the Beavers break in a new playbook.  UM rarely truly stuffs a good RB in MSU fashion - usually they can limit them to a good degree.  It also helps when your HC benches a star RB (thanks Kevin Wilson).  I don't expect any benching of Woods.

OSU pass off v UM pass def - Adv: UM.   We have zero intelligence on the Beavers QBs as they haven't played a minute of a real game.  Coming into the Big House in game 2 of their careers I don't expect much - Andersen and Baldwin will probably try to run nearly every 1st down and try to keep their QB in 2nd and 6 and 3rd and 3 situations.  One danger zone is sleeping on Funchess sized Villamin - when your whole day is spent crowding the line you can fall into a lull and you have to assume OSU tries to throw over the defense a few times.

 

Generally solid although I gave Oregon's rush offense too much credit.  It was bad too.  I had noted if UM could limit Oregon's run offense - which I felt would be their only offense - the score line would be ugly.  True.

OSU's defense was as bad as expected and undersized (I hadn't realized how small the DEs in the 3-4 were in the summer).  Unfortunately no secondary receiver outside of Butt or Darboh had a breakout game but part of that was it was not really necessary in the second half.  Villamin did look scary physically (3 catches, 26 yds) but you need a QB who can deliver the ball to him - OSU doesn't have one.

 

I didn't see much reason to change my views in last week's stock report after the week 1 rousing victory over 2-10 in 2014 FCS Weber State. 

Next Week

My view is Oregon State is the worst or 2nd worst Pac 12 team and is being served on a silver platter to UM.   They are going through an offensive transition that mimicks UM 2008 - going from pro style to spread concepts without spread players.  Their hastily put together class has a freshman QB dual threat they are going to throw out to UM.  It should be similar to what happened when Indiana tried that last year.  And Indiana and Oregon State's defenses probably won't be too dissimilar.   Oregon State stood head to head with a 2-10 FCS level team in week 1 thru the 3rd quarter before pulling ahead.  If UM does not show a competent offense in this one I'd be worried about a lot more M00N games the rest of the year.  I expect our defense to maul the Beavers and hold them to mid teens.

OSU did even less than I thought they'd do on offense.  UM basically did what I expected on offense.

I expect my predictions to look far less prescient in the future.

 

 

A Look at Michigan

After that fugly first defensive drive, UM held OSU to zero points and about 115 yards net of that horrid punt that was credited to the defense as a 48 yard loss.  I'll take 1 football field + 15 yards over 3+ quarters anytime.  Defensively my concern this year are QBs who can - you know - actually throw the ball consistently and strife our back 7 (well 6 - Jourdan Lewis does not get strifed).   Luckily for UM very few teams on the schedule have much competence at QB.  While fear snuck into the heart of many UM fans going into this game due to a "running QB" this was still a low rated true freshman in game 2 of his career in an offense full of players who knows crap about spread as everyone is learning from the ground up.  (See Michigan 2008)  The UM defense did what it needed to do although it OSU's offense plays straight into UM's strength (rush defense). 

Offensively, UM still lacks explosion.  That dude who writes Monday reviews of Michigan games for the O Zone noted the lack of explosion in UM's running game thru 2 games.

Michigan rushed for 225 yards on 48 carries (4.7 avg), but the longest carry was just 19 yards. The Wolverines are one of just 13 teams in the nation who do not yet have a carry of at least 20 yards, and their six carries of 10+ yards is 106th in the nation.

It is what it is folks - Deveon Smith is not going to gallop for 30 yards very often, if ever.  Even against shit defenses.   This will hurt vs competent defenses ala MSU, OSU, Minnesota, Utah.   It won't matter much vs the swiss cheese variety.

I was dissapointed at the lack of non TE/Darboh/RB targets in the passing game.  I mean I realize we are TE central now but if you can't find some deep seams vs Oregon State or UNLV types it seems difficult to project it happensing vs MSU and OSU defenses when we actually need to do it.  There were 18 completions in this game and only 3 went to a non TE/RB/FB/Darboh.   Rudock looked solid but still turnover prone - which will haunt UM vs better teams.  I am surprised how turnover prone he has been.

On the positive side it looked like Stanford - albeit vs a horrid defense - out there in the 2nd half.  Pound the ball, supplemented by throws to TEs, followed by physical mauling, and even a throw to AJ Williams.  TOP was dominant in the second half but against a quick strike offense that won't matter much - TO ratio is far more important to me long term.  And we lost that one again.

Not going to get giddy about this game as it was "as expected" but after 7 years of "as expected" not happening we'll mark this one as a positive step, and note our surprise that Ben Braden is great enough to start for Ohio State.  If Michigan can pound a decent defense like Minnesota into submission in the 2nd half in a similar fashion mid season, I'll be much more tickled.

 

DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY RANKINGS

Basing games on WHEN they are played and WHERE this was my general view on degree of difficulty for each opponent coming into the year.   And now my adjusted views (that will be adjusted again!) after week 3.  Again this is not how good the team is in a vacuum but how they match up vs UM.

 

	Week 2	Week 1	Preseason
1	OSU	OSU	OSU
2	MSU	MSU	MSU
3	@Minn	@Utah	@PSU
4	@Utah	@Minn	@Utah
5	BYU	BYU	BYU
6	@PSU	@PSU	@Minn
7	Northwestern	Northwestern	Northwestern
8	Rutgers	@Maryland	@Maryland
9	@Maryland	Rutgers	Rutgers
10	@Indiana	@Indiana	@Indiana
11	Oregon State	Oregon State	Oregon State
12	UNLV	UNLV	UNLV

 

Stock Up

• Minn (+1) - For the second week in a row I am not moving Minnesota up so much based on Minnesota but based on other teams around them faltering (or about to falter).  As I look ahead to Utah - who I moved Minn past - I see a lot of doom in the Utes future (more on that below).  So this is a bit of a pre-emptive strike.  Utah is about to embark on a month of hell while Minnesota plays 2 MAC teams, Purdue, and Northwestern. It is going to be difficult to judge Minnesota much until that Nebraska game 2 weeks before Michigan.  I've been negative on Mitch Leidner as a QB so let me give him some credit for this week when he went 23/45 for 233 yards and 2 TDs.  That % still sucks but hey in Big 10 QB terms 233 yards is like 400 in the Pac 12.  Let me say I am also confused Jerry Kill allowed his QB to throw 45 times.  Some dude you'd expect to sit next to in accounting class named Drew Wolitarsky had 9 catches for 114 yards.  Guyz, Drew from accounting had 10 catches all of last year.  Rodney Smith had a 2nd good week at RB (21 carries, 108 yds) and it looks like Minn is on its way to replacing David Cobb in a competent way.  Look it was Colorado State but if this offense can have any sort of pulse through the air I have to upgrade the Minnesota risk assessment.  CSU had a bad time passing with its new QBs and star WR out with injury but did well on the ground with 172 yds.  We won't learn anything new the next 2 weeks about Minnesota so we'll get more data when they play Northwestern in 3 weeks. 
• Rutgers (+1) - Rutgers lost to a quite bad Washington State team in the waning seconds, and after the game indefinitely suspened their best player.   The Rutgers game is at home for Michigan. But I still moved them up 1 spot in my "degree of diffuculty rankings".  That is how bad Maryland looked.  I don't expect Rutgers defense to be all that but it's impossible to really judge a defense after playing Washington State.  Their QB threw nearly 70 times aka a normal week at WSU.  WSU's defense is so bad it's all difficult to judge opposing offenses but a key this year for Rutgers is to find a replacement for Gary (Super)Nova and Chris Laviano has looked competent thus far (23/29 204 yds).  That's nothing special but competent in the Big 10 means you are a top 5 QB in the league.  Also I'd like to note DO NOT KICK TO JANARION GRANT (6 kick returns, 195 yards, 1 TD, 32.5 average...... on top of 2 punt returns for 58 yards, 1 TD, 28.0 average).   If you are keeping track at home that is 2 TDs on kick returns. Peppers - start doing this.

 

 

Stock Down

• Utah (-1) - Utah lost its QB and best defensive player (Hunter Dimick) to injury and still won.  Their DBs had another 2 INTs.  While I realize Utah wins close games and doesn't blow people out I fear for Utah's future based on their schedule in the Pac 12 South and their crossovers with Oregon and Cal.  The QBs on these teams are frightening and if UM had this schedule I'd be in the turtle position.   Kessler, Goff, Adams, Solomon, Rosen - those are all guys who can crush a defense, even a solid one like Utah's.  Wilson sounds like he will be back for Oregon but it was an arm injury - and Dimick I don't see any update yet.  Utah is ranked top 25 right now but in a month they won't be - after Fresno State Utah meets Oregon, Cal, Arizona State and USC.  I could see Utah losing all 4 of those.  Cal plays Texas this week and I expect Goff to open some eyes nationally as Zaire did.  I don't think Utah is any worse than PSU, Northwestern, or BYU so it is difficult for me to push them down farther than those teams even if they are 3-4 in a month from now.  That might speak to how crappy the Big 10 is below the top few teams.
• Maryland (-1) - In my season previews I said Maryland was the one team that the UM fanbase way overestimated this year.  They lost their NFL talent at WR, lost their starting QB (who was also their top rusher), and when not playing teams that sucked last year (incl PSU and UM) were destroyed (Wisc, OSU, MSU).  I did think Caleb Rowe would be their starting QB which gave them hope (instead it has been the ineffecitve Perry Hills) but they had potential for 5 wins this year from what I saw on paper.  But one of those wins was vs Bowling Green.   Which did not happen - not only did they lose they were blown out.  Now Bowling Green is not bad - they gave Tennessee a good battle through 2+ quarters but it is one thing to lose and another to get crushed.  And that was with Will Likely returning YET ANOTHER KICK FOR A TD.   WHY DO YOU TEAMS KICK TO WILL LIKELY.  I SAID THIS SUMMER DON'T KICK TO WILL LIKELY.  I SAID LAST WEEK DON'T KICK TO WILL LIKELY.  JOHN BAXTER - DO NOT KICK TO WILL LIKELY!!!!!!!!!!!!   Outside of Likely, Maryland is garbage. Bowling Green threw for 500 yards and 6 TDs.   Then they ran it for 200 more yards.  Their defense sucks and their offense sucks.  But hey they have good special teams - DO NOT KICK TO WILL LIKELY!!!!!!!!!!!  Maryland plays what looks to be a half decent USF team next week and then follows it with West Virginia, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, and MSU.  Which is why I said they'd probably be a 5 win team (they finish with Rutgers and Indiana).  They now are in risk of not even hitting that.  (Update - i see Caleb Rowe has been named starter for next week)

 

Stock Flat

• OSU - sleepwalked through a Hawaii team.   Will continue to sleepwalk until they play MSU.
• MSU - "Oregon is garbage!" comments here.   While not a vintage Oregon team this will still be a team that outscores most of their opponents and probably ends up 9-3ish so a good opponent.  And they will get better - Adams has been with that team a whole month.  Obviously a gift wrapped overthrow by Vernon Adams preserved the win, but MSU was in the national spotlight and beat a "brand" team in an exiciting back and forth affair and well all that sucks.  MSU in a vacuum is different than MSU matched up vs UM.   I just hate the matchups on the lines as UM's strength (DL) is MSU's strength (OL) and UM's potential weakness (OL) is MSU's strength (DL).  #Harbaugh and all but you need to beat MSU thru the air without a lot of turnovers and with some big chunk plays and thus far Rudock has not shown that ability.  And our ability to run on MSU's D will be .... challenged.  UM will probably need a few big plays in special teams (which is possible considering MSU's issues there) and MSU to cough the ball up a few times.  Rivalry game and all but on paper this still looks like a bad matchup based on each team's weaknesses and strengths.
• BYU - BYU beat a quality Boise State team on the road in the closing seconds.  This makes then 2-0 in their guantlet of Neb, Boise, UCLA, and Michigan.  I don't care how it was done - it is still an impresive feat.   New QB Tanner Magnum is still an unknown but he has a huge arm.  Take out the 84 yard bomb early in that game and he went 16/27 for 225 yds.  That's still a 60% completion ratio which in Big 10 QB terms would make him aweeeesome.  He did suffer some TFLs/sacks.  Adam Hine did manage 93 yards on 19 carries which is a solid 4.9 per.  Coming into the year finding a running game not named Taysom Hill was a question for the offense.  Defensively we know what BYU is - solid rush D with awful pass D. Ryan Findley threw for 300 yards but tossed 3 picks which killed Boise.  This game feels like one both defenses will neutralize the others and it's going to be Jake Rudock vs Tanner Magnum.   I don't know who to take in that situation.   I expect BYU to lose to UCLA this week but I won't be moving them down as BYU has the type of QB to stress UM's weaknesses.
• PSU - PSU beat the Buffalo Bulls by 13 at home.  If you are a PSU fan right now you are where UM fan has been for years - just happy it was not another disaster.  Hackenberg looked PTSD with 14/27 for 128 yards.  That's an awful 4.7 average.  PSU reshuffled its OL and gave Hackenberg some time.  The running game looked decent as Saquon Barkeley ran 12 times for 115 yards. (9.6 ave with 33 yard longest)   Barkley is a (sigh) highly rated freshman RB who probably is going to wrest the job away from Akeel Lynch in the first month on the job.  Cant take much more out of this game as the opposition is weak.
• Northwestern - For the second straight week the peanut gallery shall yell: "Why you no move up Northwestern after beating Stanford impressively at home and crushing tomato can in game 2?"  I said last week I will wait until this week's game with Duke before judging Northwestern and I am sticking with it.  An impressive win vs a now solid program in ACC country and I'll be moving Northwestern up.  Remember, this team beat Wisconsin last year on their way to a garbage year. Newbie QB Clayton Thornston only threw 16 times but he only needed to throw 16 times - this was Eastern Illinois.   Surprisingly star RB Justin Jackson was held to a 3.5 ypc average.  The story is the NW defense which has now given up 6 pts total this year.   Duke has played nobody and given up 7 pts thru 2 games.
• Indiana - Indiana scored 17 pts late to beat Florida International 36-22.   Indiana is who we thought they were.  Keep an eye on Jordan Howard who is Tevin Coleman's replacement.  He has had 2 monster games vs nobodies.  Indiana plays Western Kentucky next week which is actually a half decent team for a non P5.
• UNLV - see below

 

Overall

My fear for UM in 2015 is explosive offenses and/or competent QBs as our defense is prone to issues in space and our offense is not built for track meets.  i.e. a crap team like Washington State would scare the crap out of me as a UM opponent.  Hell Bowling Green would scare me to death.  As the first few weeks have played out the schedule has turned more into UM's favor in this regard.   UNLV has a decent QB but his hamstrings look to be an issue.  Maryland had what looked like a decent QB who the coach thus far has refused to play will finally get a start this week.  BYU had a QB who is UM's nightmare for 25 years - he is out with injury.   Sackenberg might be broken.  Northwestern's QB is a newb.  Most of the other Big 10 teams have Big 10 QBs.  That's not a complement.  We'll see how Laviano develops and Sudfeld is Sudfeld.

Unless Caleb Rowe turns a whole lot of stuff around at Maryland and John Baxter decides to channel Bo and kick to Rocket IsmaIl 2.0, Michigan has a very manageable month going into MSU.  Pending a Northwestern blowout of Duke, BYU feels like the main challenge in the coming 4 weeks.

 

Next Week

Michigan is currently a 34 pt favorite vs UNLV.  Even accounting for the dumb money that puts money on brand teams this should be Michigan's easiest game of the year although UNLVs QB - if healthy - will pose more danger than Oregon State's.  If Blake Decker can play the whole game UNLV probably can put up some points on Michigan's defense.  If he cannot play, this will be ugly.  The backup QBs looked Russ Bellomy'ish last week for UNLV vs UCLA.  (4/15 for 4 yards, with a pick 6... oh and a fumble).   Unless something wacky happens this should be like playing Eastern Michigan.

.

 

Was disappointed to see all the empty seats at the top of the northwest corner of the stadium Saturday, not just at the beginning of the game, but throughout the game.  Are those just unsold tickets?  Was it due to the noon start?  I don't get it, if you can't get excited about the home opener, on a beautiful Saturday morning, in Harbaugh's home debut, against a Power 5 conference opponent, what will it take?

[Edit: Topic obviously touched a nerve, judging by the negs.  Thanks for the reasoned responses.  Not sure I buy the compaction theory.  Just look at some of the photos from the UTL games and the stadium is full to the brim.  If compaction is the answer, then why don't we see that impact at all games?]

Michigan Monday is up at the Ozone. LINK:  OSU Clearly Inferior to U of M.

Most of you are familiar, but this is a regular take on Michigan's weekly game from an Ohio State blogger. Here are a few snippets.

Overview:

This was a very predictable outcome, as proven by the fact that I had Michigan winning this game 34-7. Oregon State started a freshman quarterback and a soft defense, so this one wasn't too hard to figure out. Still, this was a confidence-building outing for the Wolverines and it was exactly what Jim Harbaugh and his players needed to see. The key will be to build off of it and carry it forward into their game against BYU in a couple of weeks.

When Michigan was on Offense:

Running game:

It was not a dynamic running game for the Wolverines, but it was certainly effective. Michigan rushed for 225 yards on 48 carries (4.7 avg), but the longest carry was just 19 yards. The Wolverines are one of just 13 teams in the nation who do not yet have a carry of at least 20 yards, and their six carries of 10+ yards is 106th in the nation.

OL:

Despite the lack of big hits, the running game was remarkably consistent. Only one carry by a running back was stopped in the backfield, which is a tremendous accomplishment for this offensive line.

This may have been the best game of right guard Ben Braden's career, which is long overdue.

Passing Game:

Quarterback Jake Rudock went 18-26 passing for 180 yards and an interception. The pick was a bad throw and very late. It wasn't a deep throw or anything like that, it was a routine pass, and that's just as concerning as the three interceptions he threw last week.

While the Wolverines have yet to find a 20-yard run, they did have four receptions of at least 20 yards, though only one of them came from a wide receiver. Tight ends Ian Bunting and A.J. Williams had receptions of 21 and 22 yards, respectively, and tailback De'Veon Smith had a 20-yard reception.

When Michigan was on Defense:

Chris Wormley:

Wormley was equally effective at crashing down the line of scrimmage as he was reversing field and chasing the ball toward the sideline. And when he wanted to, he would simply blast his way directly into the backfield because he didn't feel like dealing with all of the small talk. Wormley showed flashes at times last year, but right now he's not flashing at all — he's straight neon.

Jabrill Peppers:

While he continues to have struggles in coverage, redshirt freshman defensive back Jabrill Peppers is extremely fun to watch. He has incredible makeup speed and can cover a ton of ground, and when he gets to the ball somebody is going to pay for it. It may be sacrilegious for me to say this, but he reminds me of 3-time Ohio State All-American safety Mike Doss, but much faster.

What Does it All Mean:

It means that Michigan pounded a team that they should have pounded, and that's something that they were rarely capable of last season.

I have not bought into this running game, and I probably won't until it stops looking so difficult for them even against mediocre teams. A seven-yard run looks like a 20-yard run relative to what we have seen from this team over the last few years.

I am expecting a little bit larger margin of victory next week against UNLV, but the BYU game after that is very intriguing. I can see the Wolverines heading into the October 17 game against Michigan State at 5-1, and I can also see them at 3-3.

If they are at 5-1, however, then 6-1 wouldn't seem like such an outrageous thing to imagine, especially in the Big House.

There's a lot more at the link. Gerdeman usually gives a good read on Michigan, especially on a slow news day before Brian has the UFR up.

---

"Now, he's Michigan's starting punter, part of a growing number of Australians who have become college football kickers in the United States after training at ProKick Academy back home. O'Neill is a graduate transfer after playing one season at Weber State, where he averaged 44.1 yards a game and had a long of 74 yards."

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/2015/09/14/michigans-oneill-growing-model-punter/72286492/

 

"O’Neill believes the Australian style of punting has its advantages. He kicks the ball at an angle, making adjustments depending on the situation, as opposed to the typical American punter who dropkicks the ball in a repetitive motion every single kick."

https://www.michigandaily.com/section/football/michigans-australian-zoolander-blake-oneill

I tried to come up with so many witty things to say here but lost focus and cringed with each repetition of the punch. Apparently he was likely aware but not fully aware he may be punching the opposing players junk.

BYU announced he has been disciplined internally. No word on if the Boise State player was subsequently suspended for playing with deflated balls.

Link

 

Per Brandstatter on the Inside Michigan Football radio show going on right now, the B1G apparently apologized for the awful roughing the punter call that nobody on Earth agreed with.

They should apologize for having any of those refs calling a major college game.

edit: Balas article on it

 

Harbaugh got apology from the BT about roughing the kicker call. Plus, he loves James Earl Jones' voiced intro, more https://t.co/A2Q4o0qSz1

— Chris Balas (@Balas_Wolverine) September 15, 2015