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Date Title Body
11/25/2017 - 5:54pm You know it was a good game

You know it was a good game when the trolls aren't even trying.

11/20/2017 - 1:55pm Sorry, let me put it in terms

Sorry, let me put it in terms you can understand: wahh wahh fire Harbaugh unexeptable Michigan is super duper special and deserves to win all the time.

11/20/2017 - 1:45pm It's crazy. Michigan is

It's crazy. Michigan is literally the youngest team in the country, playing their 3rd string QB, with injuries to their starting WR1, safety, left tackle, and right guard. 

This is pretty close to the worst case scenario and we have a chance to go 9-3.

11/20/2017 - 1:40pm Game Theory

I was more annoyed that they called a pass on 3rd and 6 from the Winconsin 40. I figure you run it there and get 2 plays to go 6 yards. 

11/20/2017 - 1:39pm Because Mo Hurst can't cover

Because Mo Hurst can't cover slots. 

11/16/2017 - 10:01pm Ricewood BBQ in Ann Arbor and

Ricewood BBQ in Ann Arbor and it's not close. Unfortunately closed for the season. 

11/13/2017 - 1:29pm It was definitely a good

It was definitely a good call. The ball is clearly on the ground and rolling.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/NQea9S7yPcY

10/18/2017 - 4:17pm Do you watch our cornerbacks

Do you watch our cornerbacks play? They literally grab a handful of jersey every play. 

10/16/2017 - 4:57pm 1. Harbough's first

1. Harbough's first quarterback recruit is a redshirt freshman. Redshirt freshman are bad. Even if he never sees the field, one recruiting miss means nothing.

2. See 1

3. Every staff we complete against is also multi-million dollar, and we aren't super duper special.

Do you think Harbaugh isn't the best coach this university could possibly get? 

01/23/2017 - 4:51pm The only decent barbeque in

The only decent barbeque in the state is Ricewood - their brisket will blow your mind.

Actually Westside isn't bad either. 

12/21/2016 - 1:18pm 2007 OSU game. Injured Henne

2007 OSU game. Injured Henne in the rain throws 34 times. Hart is useless because he's injured and OSU's defense has done nothing but practice defending our single run play for a week. 91 total fucking yards. 

10/30/2016 - 7:25pm They're losing because they

They're losing because they lack players at O-line, D-line, and safety

09/20/2016 - 3:48pm Because the rule is against

Because the rule is against "substitution with intent to deceive", not deception in general.

12/06/2015 - 10:24pm So Ohio State but better? We

So Ohio State but better? We didn't fare well against good defenses with elite athletes.

11/17/2015 - 12:05pm I'm not worried that Indiana

I'm not worried that Indiana played us close. I'm worried that Ohio State can replicate Indiana's strategy with much better playmakers and a great running quarterback. 

10/21/2015 - 11:41am They're up, Michigan is #1

They're up, Michigan is #1

10/14/2015 - 2:58pm 27-6

27-6

05/14/2015 - 2:08pm actual answer

As you approach the speed of light, addition of velocities isn't linear. 

According to the top train, they are moving 100 MPH relative to the 2nd to top train. However, they see themselves moving less than c (speed of ligh) relative to the bottom train. This is true no matter how many trains are in the stack - and every train still sees itself moving 100 MPH faster than the train below, and 100 MPH slower than the train above. With enough trains, you'll get arbitrarily close to the speed of light, but not quite there.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_relativity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorentz_transformation

02/09/2015 - 12:33pm Ashley's had some last week.

Ashley's had some last week. Great bar even if they don't have Hopslam.

01/21/2015 - 10:47am Quick physics calculation

EDIT - first attempt was wrong, didn't account for gauge pressure vs actual pressure.

 

Actually, this is most likely what happened. Assume the balls measured 10.5 PSI at 45 F, they would measure 12.5 PSI at 85 F. The balls would be a little warm.

10/22/2014 - 10:50am Dammit. We beat the spread

Dammit. We beat the spread though.

10/22/2014 - 10:43am Michigan has only been

Michigan has only been double-digit dogs 9 times since 1990:

13 - OSU - 17 - L
12 - Bama - 13 - L
10 - OSU - 16.5 - L
09 - OSU - 10 - L
09 - Iowa - 9.5 - W
08 - OSU - 20.5 - L
08 - PSU - 24.5 - L
08 - Florida - 10 - W
96 - OSU - 17 - W
98 - OSU - 10 - L
96 - Colorado - 9 - W
 

I may have missed a few, here's the data:

http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/teams/t…

10/06/2014 - 1:26pm Yay.

Now we get to start a back that managed 3.1 ypc against Rutgers.

10/03/2014 - 2:32am Not a chance. Do you remember

Not a chance. Do you remember how terrible those defenses were?

10/01/2014 - 10:18pm Yay.

Yay.

09/18/2014 - 9:55pm Fuck this shit

Fage 4 life

08/13/2014 - 11:23am Are there any specific rules

Are there any specific rules in the NCAA that stop, say, a linebacker from lowering a shoulder into a reciever before the ball is thrown? 

05/01/2014 - 6:41pm First of all, talk to the

First of all, talk to the advising and admissions offices. They'll be very willing to answer any questions you may have.

 

Secondly, Calc III at Michigan is really shockingly difficult. I've seen many future engineers struggle with the material and the workload. Don't let that surprise you. Places like Washtenaw will be considerably easier. (In high school, I took Calc III at UM-Dearborn - it was a cakewalk compared to the Ann Arbor class).

 

Take a look at the exams for last semester's Calc II class to see the material you'll be expected to know. Much more difficult than the AP exam:

 

http://www.math.lsa.umich.edu/courses/116/index.html

 

Everything you should know about transfer credit:

http://www.lsa.umich.edu/students/academicsrequirements/academicpolicie…

 

Read this page about the math different math sequences:

 

http://www.lsa.umich.edu/cg/cg_results.aspx?termArray=f_14_2010&cgtype=…

02/11/2014 - 3:37pm Pretty charts are welcome,

Pretty charts are welcome, but not the background images

11/18/2013 - 11:36am You're right and that's

You're right and that's depressing.

11/18/2013 - 11:22am While I agree that running

While I agree that running the ball on 4th and 2 might have been successfull less than 30% of the time, I believe there are less conservative playcalls that would have done better. Spreading the field and looking for a quick slant/hitch/out + have Devin scramble if nothing is open HAS to be at least 30% successful - I would suspect much more. 

Love the going for it, hate the play.

11/13/2013 - 12:48pm It's pretty telling that in

It's pretty telling that in 2008, that tire-fire of an offense with zero credible passing threat, our running backs never performed this terribly. Against Utah - the worst rushing game of the year - our backs still got 2.4 ypc. I just can't believe that the offensive talent level on this team is worse than 2008.

11/05/2013 - 6:38pm This play could so easily

This play could so easily option off that slot LB. Have Funches run a slant or a hitch, give Gardner an actual read at the mesh point. If Gardner pulls on the second play, any throw to Funchess is at least 5 yards with a single safety to beat. There's got to be something in place to punish that blind aggression.

10/18/2013 - 12:39pm Alright, I put way too much

Alright, I put way too much effort into this, but it's an interesting question. Weighing all of those factors is difficult, so I looked at the results of previous years.

From 2005 to 2013, there have been 823 overtime drives. I looked at only the first drives of each overtime.

Scoring - 72%

TD - 44%

FG - 28%

Turnover - 14%

So Gibbons kick is 65% vs 72% playing normally. The chances are much closer than I thought they would be. Figure in that our offense was playing badly, Devin is turnover prone, and Gibbons is an above average kicker - the correct decision might have been the kick.

(A game ending pick 6 has only happened twice in the last 7 years - less than .5%. The games were Pitt vs Ohio 2005 and Vandy vs Tennessee 2011)

 

 

10/18/2013 - 12:12am For an average college

For an average college kicker, missing the both the 4th quarter + 1st OT FG is ~18%. Seriously, even with all that happened in this game, I think we win it 9 times out of 10. 

I won't extrapolate Gibbons stats because of low sample sizes, but he is 6/11 from 40+ over the last 2 years (4/9 before this game).

Predicted points from from an average kicker during this game was 14.25, and Gibbons scored 12. He definitely performed below average, but not by much.

10/17/2013 - 11:45pm Risk can be quantified. "a FG

Risk can be quantified. "a FG wins it" - College kickers can hit a 40 yarder ~65% of the time. Why throw the ball? Because we shouldn't be so afraid to throw the ball that we accept a 35% chance at 0 points. 

Sure, Gardner is a turnover machine - 7% of his throws get picked off. So give him some easy reads, get away from a run game that hasn't worked all night (does the reason really matter?) and go for the win. Or at the very least give poor Gibbons a better at the kick. 

10/17/2013 - 9:27pm This is a great

This is a great series.

Borges isn't an idiot. He's been doing this for a long time. There's a lot of nuances to his playcalling, the things he did made sense at the time, there's a lot of logic to his decisions. He has a complete lack of understanding of statistics, though. 

Running into a stacked box where you have 6 blockers for 6 defenders can be successful. You can call it "putting the players in a position to be succesful" . But it doesn't work out that way.

It only takes one unblocked man to stop one of these running plays at the line. Say your OLine is making blocks 90% of the time - your plays are still only 50% effective. Look at Saturday's game, and it's obvious that our Oline was much worse than 90%. And what's the upside? Perfect blocking gets us 5 yards. Add in underclassmen tight ends that can't block anything + losing our best player, then you have what happened Saturday - perfect blocking happens hardly ever, most runs get stopped at the line. Borges is calling plays like he expects the offensive line to execute - all of Borges's calls make sense if the offensive line executes - and it's absurd to think that the offensive line will execute. That's how you get 1 ypc on playcalling that "makes sense".

So get rid of useless tight ends, spread the field so you have to execute fewer blocks to be successful. You can say that's not Borges's philosophy - well I hate Borges's philosophy. Our super-manball Carr days averaged 4.5 ypc at best - that's the ceiling here. There's no reason for a team as talented as Michigan to settle for that.

Now, onto the overtime playcalling. You can say Borges was being "conservative". He wasn't. He was afraid to take a risk. Your goal in that situation is to maximize your chance of winning. Running three straight plays into a stacked box and settling for a 40 yard field goal  = 65% chance of winning* in OT1. Throw a fade to Funchess, run something to the edge, have Gardner run it - ANYTHING but settling for 0 yards gained. Sure, having Gardner pass has a 10% chance of being picked off, but you're ALREADY at a 35% chance of scoring 0 points if you decide to play "conservative". 

 

*(everyone that says Gibbons should have made that kick is wrong. It doesn't matter how many he kicked in a row, he's still a college kicker. anything else is gambler's fallacy bullshit). 

10/24/2012 - 12:10pm 34-14 Michigan
 
198 rushing

34-14 Michigan

 

198 rushing yards

10/17/2012 - 10:49am 34-13 michigan

34-13 michigan

12/05/2011 - 10:02am If Georgia beat LSU, it would

If Georgia beat LSU, it would still be LSU-Bama in the NC game, then Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. 

11/13/2011 - 11:25pm Explain yourself. Data goes

Explain yourself. Data goes in, rankings come out. Where is the bias?

11/04/2011 - 12:29pm 853

853

05/04/2011 - 3:00pm At least I have chicken

At least I have chicken

01/13/2011 - 2:41pm For me it was the entire 2007

For me it was the entire 2007 season. Going 8-4 with half your offense nfl-bound upper classmen is just horrible. We're never going to have more talent than that; that was the ceiling of our program under Lloyd and his refusal to do anything except run left. He took the chains off the offense against Florida and great things happened. It was depressing.

Usc and bama are going to be more talented. That's just the way recruiting goes. Yes, michigan can be successful with a vanilla pro-style offense. But not against more talented teams, not in bowls, and not against osu. If that's ok with you, then we should have kept Lloyd, and Hoke was a good hire. I really hope I'm wrong here, but I'm afraid that I'm not.

01/12/2011 - 8:22pm Let's not take cheap shots at

Let's not take cheap shots at Drew Sharp's mom. She's been so good to us all...

01/01/2011 - 6:22pm Thanks Dave Brandon!

No,

Thanks Dave Brandon!

No, wait, you're just some whiney fan. Jesus, can we wait a week, then cheer for whoever is at the helm next year?

12/31/2010 - 5:06pm 421

421

12/31/2010 - 2:26am One more week.

Just one more week.

12/31/2010 - 1:27am You're looking at it all

You're looking at it all wrong.

See the Big 12 is all: "Hey man, look at all my 12 teams." And we're all: "WTF is this, that is NOT 12 teams. Counting Baylor and Iowa State that's hardly even 10."

Then the B1G is all: "Yeah we're doin all right, hangin out with 10 teams." Then when they're not looking it's BAM 12 TEAMS IN THE FACE.

12/20/2010 - 1:50pm 16th in Defense??

Beilein for DC!