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05/21/2018 - 8:51am A quick thought that tries to

A quick thought that tries to reconcile different personal view. \

Woodson (and Marcus Ray) were both Ohio kids. The Game was intensely personal to both of them and they were leaders on that team. Ray, in particular, delighted in coming home to Columbus and gloating. Further, it's unlikely that all teams focused on The Game with the exact same intensity. So, I actually wouldn't be surprised at all if those teams were more intensely focused on OSU than other teams. If there was some magical way to quantify the ethereal.

That said, I certainly think the current teams take the game serious enough. I'm sure it's the one game on their schedule they'd rather win than all others. The question isn't "Are you taking The Game as serious as Charles Woodson did?" -- it's "Are you taking The Game as serious as you need to?" 

Just a thought. I can definitely see where Woodson is coming from based on his own experience, but the notion that JH's teams just don't care enough is also silly.

 

05/16/2018 - 11:23am Yeah, D1Baseball seems to

Yeah, D1Baseball seems to think Purdue-M is an elimination series of some sort (I'm not sure how it works with baseball if there's a 2-1 split).

It'd definitely behoove M to win the series.

05/16/2018 - 11:20am The B10 baseball schedule is

The B10 baseball schedule is even more variable than hoops, if you can believe that. You only play 8 of the 13 other teams. M has played the bottom 3 teams and don't have much in terms of non-conference. Indiana has played 4 of the top 5 teams in the B10.

Purdue is a good opportunity to get some more solid wins.

 

 

05/11/2018 - 10:18am It's not Clemson. It's Penn

It's not Clemson. It's Penn State. M can make it a three-way race. He's also not a game-player by all accounts. If he's visiting then he's taking a serious look.

His track times are stupid. 10.82/100 and 21.55/200. Defensive End.

Someone in the B10 East will get a freak athlete...and he's not a lock for OSU.

05/04/2018 - 8:33am OSU will most likely bring in

OSU will most likely bring in Grant Gunnell in 2019 and Jack Miller in 2020. Those are pass-first QBs. As is Haskins. Burrow is more athletic and a better runner, but it seems like he'll end up grad-transferring (Nebraska?). 

They will use the QB as a constraint, but it will be a different look. The thing about JTB, though, is that he wasn't a great running threat. He was a great "inside runner; get me 5 yards" guy, but he had no real juice. He wasn't a threat to punish the slightest loss of gap integrity with a 50 yard run. But, UFM trusted the crap out of him to get 2-3 hard yards.

Removing JTB removes UFM's biggest (and maybe only) port in a storm. They will, almost necessarily, be more varied w/o JTB. I'm not sure, though, how that will work out for UFM. It might be that Haskins provides more RPO constraint options than JTB did (I can't imagine him not). Either way, you have to think there will be significant growing pains which may not be worked out by the time they play TCU.

 

05/02/2018 - 12:07pm That's a really weak chart.

That's a really weak chart. Ok, so Louisiana has 2.6x the avg number of blue chip recruits and "only" 2.5x the avg number of NFL players. And Pennsylvania is at 0.8 and 0.9 respectively. Ok, so maybe recruiting rankings slightly overvalue Louisiana and undervalue Pennsylvania if you're looking strictly at NFL players as the measurement.

The entire southeast is still well above average in terms of NFL players produced. Setting aside the silly DC and Delaware examples, the top 6 NFL producing states per capita are SEC states. Alabama has produced more NFL players than Michigan as well as Illinois.

So, I would very much suggest that the gap in quantity is pretty much as big as it would appear. 

04/30/2018 - 9:55am Ohio State will start a QB

Ohio State will start a QB from the 2016 class. The same year as, you know, Peters.

 

Alabama will start Tua and Georgia will start Fromm. I don't think it's a radical idea to expect a 3rd year QB to be ready to play. Your mileage may vary.

02/21/2018 - 8:26am 247 actually provides you

247 actually provides you with a specific average recruit value. OSU was in the 94s an Michigan was in the 89s. 

The Composite team score increases less with each additional recruit. The Composite team score also emphasizes top-top players more. Georgia and OSU each signed 26 and OSU had the higher average recruiting ranking (by 0.06). But, Georgia signed more top 30 type kids and finished 6 points higher in the 247 alogrithm.

Ohio State signed 13 kids ranked higher than anyone M signed. I don't know how close the classes are in actual talent -- but if you're using 247 composite rankings as your measure, they weren't at all close.

To Illustrate the fallacy of this approach, last year's M class was 296/30 = 9.8. The year before was 280/28=10. If you think this year's TCU class was better than last year's M class you're crazy.

 

02/09/2018 - 10:47am Nebraska actually has the

Nebraska actually has the most difficult schedule in the West. By far.

01/30/2018 - 11:20am And that's only football.

And that's only football. Hoops is strong, too. Last year's Central-North game featured two UNC commits and an IU commit.

01/30/2018 - 9:09am He's much closer to 200. He's

He's much closer to 200. He's a future 5*. Period. He started for Pick North as a true frosh at DE and played a lot of TE. Pick North was legitimately a very good team last year -- probably top 10 in the state.

He also starts as a true frosh on the hoops team, which is top 3 in the state. I'm not sure how much more he'll grow, but even at 6'5 he's at least a legit mid-D1 basketball prospect with possible high 3*/low 4* upside.

In short, the kid is a freak even by Pickerington standards, and Pick Central and Pick North are churning out ballers in both football and basketball. So, it's definitely worth the early offer if that's what it takes to get in the conversation for this kid.

01/09/2018 - 8:15am Thank you for noting that

Thank you for noting that Vegas sets line they think are accurate, first and foremost.

Vegas does care if bad lines gets hammered to their detriment, but they don't give an F if the people hammer it like fools. If they could move the M line down to 3:2 AND keep the money coming, they'd be over the moon because that's an absolutely stupid number and they're getting absolutely stupid bets on it.

So, I think the 10:1 is the genuine Vegas take on M. Those numbers aren't going to get moved much by bettors unless they think they think they can get people to keep betting a better house value. I'm guessing M backers maybe have a tolerance down to 8:1 (especially as the stink of 2017 wears off and everything turns rainbows and candy canes), but I think anything lower than that kills the action.

01/02/2018 - 10:59am Fans get upset because they

Fans get upset because they are passionate. They are, by definition fanatics which means they are irrational at times. M packs in 110,000 people, gets big deals with Nike and attracts a host of other money because they have an enormous, interested fanbase. That fanbase cares a great deal. If they didn't then none of that would happen and that includes, I might add, this blog.

I get the frustration with the season and the #hottakes, but that's part and parcel with a large, passionate fanbase. What I don't get is a FANblog that is actually financially successful because of these very facts bagging on the golden goose. 

FYI -- the M fanbase isn't changing. They aren't going apathetic. And if they ever do decide to just eat Arby's then you'll know b/c traffic for this blog will dwindle to a trickle.

11/22/2017 - 9:34am OSU was up 28-21 in the 4th

OSU was up 28-21 in the 4th when JTB went out. Jones converted a 3rd down and then OSU ran 3 times setting up a 4th and 1. Elliot broke it and the game was over. Lee then returned a Gardner sack/fumble for a TD before Michigan scored at the end.

tl/dr -- OSU was in a good spot in 2014 when JTB went down.

10/26/2017 - 10:28am Mike Shula barely had a

Mike Shula barely had a winning record...at Alabama!...in four seasons. He was, without a single shred of doubt, fired because of performance. He lost his final 4 games and was 0-4 against Auburn. 

Honestly, it seems more like an effort to justify Harbaugh as an elite coach. I mean, he IS an elite coach. That's not really up for debate. But it's not because he's "just like" or "doing better" than UFM when he was at Florida in his 3rd year. That strikes me as fanciful.

Stoops is one of the "elite" coaches of this era -- I mean he coached last season.  Jimbo Fisher is probably another one.

 

10/26/2017 - 8:34am Nick Saban replaced Mike

Nick Saban replaced Mike Shula at Alabama for "poor performance." Period. 

Bob Stoops also ought to be in that mix. He also replaced a "poor performer."

 

Also: "Meyer did appreciably better in his third year at OSU, where he replaced a successful coach because of a minimal-impact scandals, than he did at UF, where he replaced Ron Zook." 

I mean, that's true. But Meyer won an f'n NATIONAL TITLE in his SECOND year following the poor-performing Zook. It took him three years to do it OSU.

 

 

07/13/2017 - 9:51am Recruiting is fundamentally

Recruiting is fundamentally comfort and relationships. Period. There are certain thresholds a school must meet, but between comparable programs, it's about the relationship with the staff. Michigan and Ohio State are comparable with each having plusses and minuses. The thing that wins a recruit is their comfort level with the HC and staff. Some recruits will prefer JH and others  UFM. Now, sometimes they backfill the reason they picked a school (I loved their business program! or great facilities! or love they way they use their WDEs!), but that's almost always post hoc bs.

Ruckert likes OSU better and is almost certainly basing his decision on that. He's not going through some sort of complicated weighted checklist assessment to robotically figure out which school is "best" for him. It's personal. Make your peace with that.

05/30/2017 - 10:06am Ohio State is -8.5 vs Penn

Ohio State is -8.5 vs Penn State

Michigan is -3 against Florida.

04/13/2017 - 9:08am Be careful with the 247

Be careful with the 247 Composite. At some point they include walk-ons and various other players in the class. the 2014 OSU class had 23 scholarship kids, I think -- 4 of them were rated lower than 86.6. 16 were rated above 90.0. But when you factor in 9 "NA" kids, the average comes out at 86.6. I think that bug is in all team rankings up to and including 2014 to varying degree (OSU only had 1 "NA" in 2012). 

In 2013, OSU had 5 "NA" players put in the class. The average was way higher than 89.1. Again, 4 kids below 89.1 and 10 above 96.

 

12/22/2016 - 1:38pm Darnay Holmes visited OSU as

Darnay Holmes visited OSU as sophomore and then again as a junior. There was nothing sudden about OSU getting into the picture. It was the long process of building relationships. No OSU recruiting guy ever had OSU out for Holmes. They always had UCLA in the lead. And, IMO, they still are. But OSU was always in the picture. 

His OV was a knock-out AND Keyshawn Johnson is in his ear about going to OSU.

12/12/2016 - 8:44am I don't think anyone on the

I don't think anyone on the OSU staff even thinks he's going anywhere other than M. But, you recruit hard to the end because you never know. And if you swing and miss on Trey Smith, DPJ and Marvin Wilson, but connect with Darnay Holmes, then it's entirely worth it.

12/02/2016 - 3:04pm By my count, OSU's starters

By my count, OSU's starters had 68 collective years in the program and M's had 90. So, 3.1 yrs vs. 4.1 yrs. I make no judgment as to whether that difference is significant or not.

However, I think in some cases the "old" vs "young" is used to show that OSU is going to be very experienced next season as compared to Michigan. In that case, the class year matters a great deal. OSU can, I think, return 21 of 22 starters, in theory. Michigan can bring 3 or 4. That's significant.

Fortunately, OSU will suffer significant early entry attrition. I'd expect both CBs and Hooker to be gone, along with McMillan and Lewis, with Baugh, Barrett (according to OSU people), Hubbard and maybe even Worley candidates to also jump.

11/16/2016 - 1:24pm There's always a chance. It's

There's always a chance. It's a chance I'd be remarkably comfortable with if I were you. Presumably you also appreciate there's a chance you die while driving your car.

Stick West of the river and you'll have a normal road game experience. Wander around on Indianola (East of High; 2 mi E of the Stadium) and your chances for a normal experience decrease.

Anyway, I'm happy to answer any questions if you have them.

11/16/2016 - 12:14pm I've had M fans at my

I've had M fans at my tailgate and at the game on two occasions and they encountered no problems. If you're tailgating and hanging out, anything West and NW of the Stadium is absolutely fine. The further East you go the more likely you are to encounter student housing. West and North are isolated from any sort of campus housing. It's all fairly apparent from any map of campus, but basically West of the mighty Olentangy is absolutely, perfectly fine. In 2014, Mason Cole's family and a group of M fans tailgated next to us w/o incident.

Inside, the visiting sections suck. Good luck. It's a long, narrow strip from field to Row 42 in C-Deck. I'd look for tickets elsewhere. Anything between the 20s is most likely going to be fine. You may have bad luck and sit next to a jerk, but such is the risk. Finally, C-Deck goes up 42 rows. Somewhere around Row 30 it becomes just too high, IMO. 

11/16/2016 - 11:15am Ohio State "whammed" the crap

Ohio State "whammed" the crap out of Oregon in the national title game. Heuermann was crushing undersized DL all day. It was one of OSU's adjustments to the Bud Foster "Bear Front" approach that so flummoxed them in early 2014.

08/16/2016 - 2:30pm Is Ohio State's clear #1 RB

Is Ohio State's clear #1 RB really undrafted through 22 rounds? I'm assuming this draft took place in early summer before Dunn was kicked off the team?

02/08/2016 - 9:04am UFM tries to take 10 kids

UFM tries to take 10 kids from Ohio as part of his class. I doubt he'll do that for 2017 because f the numbers. As it relates to Ohio, 2017 is the inroads year. OSU's numbers are so tight they've basically offered all the kids they're going to offer for the foreseeable future. They're not going to offer Bowden. They're not going to offer Richardson. Or Aijan or Danny Davis. Those kids are all B10 caliber and I think Richardson, in particular, is a legit 4* WR talent. 2018 may be a good year to get a couple kids only because two of the higher regarded kids are from Springfield, and M -- at least Coach Hoke -- did suprisingly well in that area, which is typically a big OSU area.

 

WRT New Jersey, Partridge's ties will diminish with each passing year. He'll still be a good guy for NJ, but he won't the guy who actually coached the #1 player in the country ever again. This year will rate as abnormal for NJ kids. I expect JH will land another top 5ish class in 2017 -- but he'll go where the kids are. For example, McCaffrey and Wilson are two kids who will crank up the class ranking. That doesn't mean M needs to really hit Colorado and Brooklyn hard, though.  

01/29/2016 - 8:39am Braxton Miller is getting

Braxton Miller is getting pretty rave reviews. He's bumped his projection up to the 2nd round and according to some, 1st round isn't out of the question. 

I don't know if OSU WRs run sloppy routes or whatever. There will be 5 OSU WRs drafted in the past two seasons. Perhaps they underutilize their WR talent with poor coaching. Nick Vannett will get drafted fairly high, too, and he was targeted maybe 1-2 times a game.

Not sure about trash-talking wrt the OSU Pass game/M Pass defense based on last year's game. OSU basically ran the ball every play. 15 pass attempts. I think Thomas had one big catch and drew a PI on Lewis on 4th down. Both those were in the 4th quarter, I think, when it was over.

01/28/2016 - 8:58am Don't you have to be down to

Don't you have to be down to 88 by NLOID to comply with B10 limits on oversigning (3 over the 85)? So not only is more attrition coming, it's coming SOON. 

10/30/2015 - 2:19pm Devin Smith was never much of

Devin Smith was never much of a route runner at Ohio State. He was never a ball control guy. 

I expect Michael Thomas to go in the first 3 rounds this year. So, I mean, if guys keep getting drafted then I'm not sure what there is to say about it.

02/26/2015 - 8:47am Presumably the OP used

Presumably the OP used Stassen.com to collect the data.  Stassen does NOT include Ohio State's vacated wins.  The data presented counts Ohio State's 2010 season as 0-1.  

Ohio State has the #1 winning percentage since 1900 and as far back as 1898.  If you go back to 1897, ND passes OSU.  If you go back to 1896, Michigan passes OSU for #2.  You have to go back to 1895 for Michigan to claim #1.  So, the last seven seasons have been so bad for Michigan that you have to back to 1896 to find period to present where they top OSU in overall winning percentage.

Each team has massive advantages over the other in certain time frames.  For example, from 1896-1905, Michigan was 95-7 and Ohio Stae was 59-33.  Michigan was 12-0-1 in the first 13 games of the series.  Michigan throttled Ohio State in games when OSU was not in the Western Conference.

Conversely, from 2005-14, Ohio State is 98-21 (notice, 110-21 in games actually played) and Michigan is 73-53.  Not quite the whupping Yost put on OSU, but comparable.

Excluding both periods of dominance, the comparison is very close:

1908-2007 (100 years):  OSU, 73.13 and M, 72.98 with M holding a 49-41-5 advantage in the series.  I didn't look at Big Ten titles or National titles in that period.