Member for

7 years 9 months
Points
52.00

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
11/22/2011 - 10:21pm This is tiring, childish, and false

stop. 

11/18/2011 - 5:22pm I can see where you're going, but....

Steals.  A team which causes a lot of TOs would be penalized by this system.

IE, every turn over you force on D makes this TOP lower, even though you did a good thing.

11/18/2011 - 1:54pm It's complicated

As a dude who's played a lot of b-ball, I'll tell you it's complicated.  The reason is that there are a lot of open-ended plays.  It's like an option in football, but instead of reading one defender, then bitching or going, you're reading multiple dudes, then it's three passes later than someone scores.  Difficult, but not terribly complicated right?

Well, what happens when it's a mis-read?  Or, rather, you THINK it's a mis-read?  Is it the ball-handler's fault for not reading the options, is it his teammate's fault for not being in the correct position, or is it some combination?  Adding to that, what happens when the play gets derped up, yet THJ just dunks on a fool because the D derped-up worse?  Is that a +3 for "dunking on a fool" or a -1 for "WTF, run the damn play?"

Also, one play leads to another quite often, and plays can sometimes not develop.  For instance, if I'm supposed to run a play where I pass to the big on the block, yet my defender goes "I don't want to defend you" and I drive by for a score, then how do you rate the big?  I mean, he ran his part of the play, but he didn't really add anything USEFUL to the offense, so?...

In summary, it's a complicated picture.  Yes, it can be done.  This is why there are coaches and assistants.  (My last head coach's previous job was to do just this for the Cavs.)  While it can be done, it requires a LOT of video, and a very good understanding of things.  IE, why do people drive to the hoop.  (And I'm not talking about "because it was open."  I want to know WHY it was open. And again, that's complicated.)

11/18/2011 - 1:42pm Picture Pages?

You're talking about basketball picture pages right?

11/18/2011 - 1:34pm My thoughts

First of all, you've got a decision: do you want to make it based off athleticism, technique, or both?  For instance, at 3:27 2nd half of last game THJ makes a catch that's purely athletic.  Technique-wise this is a poor play, athletic-wise this is a great play.  My guess is you want to lean more towards technique, with a few allowances for great athleticism (for instance, making an amazing dunk, after screwing up the play.)

So, you want to know more than just regular stats.  Obviously, advanced stats are a good place to start.  However, I've got a few additional stats that I watch, based off our team's goals in each game.

Assists: they suck as a stat.  What happens when I pass to my teammate for an alley-oop and he DROPS THE FRIGGIN BALL! (yes, this did happen.  There was no one else near.  It was a good pass.  I want my damn assist.) 
Assisted Shots: are a good stat.  It shows how many times you give people wide open shots, which you directly control.  How I measure this is assisted shots (wide open shots) are the denominator.  Then, the amount of MADE assisted shots is the numerator.  IE, if Novak misses an assisted shot by Burke, Burke gets a 0/1 AS.  If then Morgan dunks an AS by Burke it's 1/2.  You get what I'm saying?  Of course you do, you graduated from UM.

Rebounds: suck as a stat.  Yes, you control whether you've boxed your man out.  No, you don't control whether the ball comes your way, nor whether your derp teammate standing next to you has boxed his man out.  Nor can you control getting screwed on a switch as a 5'10 guard against a 6'10 giant/leviation/behemoth. (This happened also.  I got put-back-dunked on.  I was mad.)  So...
Box-outs: number of men boxed out after each missed shot.  For instance, if Burke boxes out that behemoth then Burke gets a 1/1.  If Novak misses his man, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE BALL COMES TO HIM, that's a 0/1.  Add these totals up and you've got X/5.  For the whole game, this should be a good indicator on whether we're keeping up on the boards.  It's better than pure rebounds, rebound %, etc because the players each control whether they get that stat.

On plays: They're super-hard to read in basketball unless you know what you're looking for.  Kinda like FB, but much more free-form.  This gets especially true when the game speeds up and when the shot clock is winding down.  I watch every game and even I don't know all the plays that we use.  (Granted, I don't watch for every play).  So, it's pretty hard to know which play is happenning, especially since multiple plays commonly happen on one possession.  Obviously, you'll want to look for the hand signal of the ball-carrier, but this makes it harder as you then have to pause and slowly watch the OFF-BALL players go through their progressions.  And even then, the play usually goes awry as something else opens up.  So, unless you're watching multiple games, you're not going to know many of the plays fully.  This leads to the problem of "how do you tell whether someone did their job in the play".  I really don't have an answer for that besides "watch a shit-load of plays, yo". 

Random other poop: Our team needs scorers.  But scorers don't just score points.  They go through progressions in a play, in a game, and over a year.  The important point is to notice in which positions they score.  For instance, Burke is a shooter (if he drives, he will dish against better opponents.)  But, more specifically, when he's left in an iso play, he'll drive and look for the lay-up.  THJ is a scorer (both shooter and driver).  But, most of his drives are off isos and screens from the man in the 5 position (Morgan, Horford, or Smot).  So, a good measure for how active offensively THJ and Burke are is "how many isos are called" and "# of screen/rolls with the 5".

Uh...conclusion?
I don't know if any of this is going to be used.  I do hope it's been a help.  The main points are:
1.) You aren't gonna know many of the plays if you don't watch a lot, bro.
2.) A lot of stats suck.  Use that brain of yours to figure out which common stats do, and throw them out.  Try to use ones that each player actually controls.
3.) Please, friggin, please don't just say "THJ scored because he beat his man off an amazing dribble."  Know the footwork (was the defender leaning left?  How high was his butt?) and incorporate it.  The players do.

Oh, and uh, good luck.

P.S.  I am a basketball nerd.  I keep these stats for fun (I am a lonely, lonely person).  I would be willing to assist in helping a UFR for basketball in the future.  In fact, I would be enamored with the idea.  Since you should know my email, if you want me to research this stuff further, shoot me an email.  Otherwise, I just hope this helped.

11/17/2011 - 1:10pm former Cal student

yeah, Cal accepts LOADS of transfers.  It's the way the UC system is set up: lots of people go to CC because CC costs like $2k/year for in-state students.  Get the easy 4.0, then transfer to get that prestigious degree for basically half price.

/UM fan in Cali.

11/14/2011 - 6:02pm Physical vs. Career harm

You did the right thing, and this requires congratulations.

I guess the only difference would be you had a back-up plan for the physical harm (your friend).  I think that McQuery didn't have a back-up plan for his career.  I'm really going out on a limb on this one though....

Oh, and you had a sense of morals.

11/13/2011 - 12:31pm Pet Peeve

People hear "would've" as "would of" and then type it as such.  It's "would've". 

 

Sorry,
That Guy

11/10/2011 - 2:43am not impressed either

But I'm referring to your comment.

11/09/2011 - 2:35pm The children aren't the only victims

While you don't live in PA, so you might now see it, the people in PA are victims of fraud.  That's what the whole post is about. 

I know that there were more heinous crimes committed, but yeah, people can feel sorry for all victims.

11/09/2011 - 12:23pm You mean

When MM gets here, and we do very well, but don't win a champioship, and we get a #1 recruiting class the year after, and he wants to win the 'ship, he'll be here longer than a year.

11/09/2011 - 11:55am Cowardice

I think he didn't have the courage to throw his friend in jail.  It's not that he thought he'd get fired, or in trouble. 

11/09/2011 - 11:52am Absolutes

using them generally means you're wrong.

The last "Unspeakable Evil" was the Nazis.  If your entire family didn't fight in WWII, then your family has some "cowards" in it. 

Perhaps it's not such an easy/obvious choice after all?  Perhaps, humans have more complex decisions than you're attributing them.

P.S. Yes, JoePa dropped the ball.  No, he's not the devil.

11/09/2011 - 11:45am UGH!

JoePa did the wrong thing.  Dur.

But put yourself in his shoes.  Its not so simple as always reporting every crime.  You can't tell me we all reported our underaged friends drinking.  So, it's a decision on whether to report the crime, based on the outcomes.

MAYBE, he didn't really believe the GA.  I mean, you're putting a decade-long friend and a GA in a contest for whom JoePa trusts more.  Let me guess who wins that. 

WELL, HE STiLL SHOULD HAVE CALLED:

Duh....But again, put yourself in his shoes.  It's pretty tough to throw a decade-long friend under that amount of scrutiny (if the allegations are incorrect) or into jail (if they are correct).

It really doesn't matter what the crime is.  You guys try throwing your friends into jail sometime.  Seriously, it's a very hard thing to do.

I AGREE JOEPA SHOULD BE FIRED.  Just....please stop saying that he's the heart of evil.  Jeez.

11/08/2011 - 9:03pm NROTC

Woot! (They are the doods hoisting the flag)

11/05/2011 - 7:08pm Dad?

I...uh....really had to go.....uh....do homework....yeah...

11/05/2011 - 6:43pm verb tense

we DON'T lose.  Corrected.

11/04/2011 - 12:20am Yes

Yes.  Yes.

11/04/2011 - 12:12am My Sig:

Please see it.

11/03/2011 - 8:15pm Counter-point

While the above line-up would work, there are a few alternatives/corrections:

1.) Morgan is 6'8, so he's a 5 (no doubt) but he's actually smaller than Smot.  Check pics if you don't believe me.

2.) We might see Morgan as a back-up, with variable options.  This of course depends on what the players do in practice, and who we're playing.  Nevertheless, I could see us running different line-ups.
   a.) 5 - MM, 4 - Smot, 3 - Robinson, 2 - THJ, 1 - CB.  You'd have 3 slashing wings with 2 outside-in forwards.  Obviously you could sub Burke, Vogrich, and Stauskas in there, but this is a potent line-up.  Big thing that would make this go is whether Robinson can rebound/shoot outside.
   b.) 5 - MM, 4 - Smot, 3 - Vog/Stauskas, 2 - THJ, 1 - TB.  Again, you could sub Brundidge in here for TB if Carlton is doing better.  Here you'd have a shooter heavy line-up which would open the lane for MM, Smot, and TB/CB to drive (or THJ).

Either way, I think MM is gonna be the 5 in some situations.  Morgan/Horford are good inside men, but with the options that MM brings to the table, I can't see us using them over him.  The real opportunity cost of using Morgan/Horford is another shooter at the 3, as they slide MM and THJ down to the 4 and 3, respectively.  In that case, you'd lose a slasher/shooter.  Coach B's offense is predicated on outside-in offensive motion, with lots of cuts, etc. Morgan's presence in the post would hinder that, while the presence of another slasher would help that.  Does this make sense?

11/03/2011 - 8:03pm And what was Penny's last name?

That's right.  HARDAWAY

11/03/2011 - 12:01pm Caption

Dave: "So, I ate a little bit of Jack Links, right?""
Jack: "Ok?"
Dave: "Well, then we started messin' with sasquatch"
Jack: "What happened"
Dave: "The wierdest thing.  I punched him in the face, Taylor rode him like a donkey, and then Barwis wrestled with him.  I...couldn't stop.  After he started talking about bubble screens I just couldn't stop punching him.  Borges even got in a punch, I think...."

11/02/2011 - 3:47pm Here's why he's coming here

1.) His best friend, GRIII, is coming.

2.) He's been recruited by UM the longest.  Here's his quote from last December, given to Dylan at umhoops.com "IU, Purdue, Marquette, Ole Miss, Oregon State, Miami (FL), Cincinnati, Xavier, Dayton and Ball State. [are recruiting me]"

    a.) So, Coach B really got there early.  Well done Coach.

11/02/2011 - 3:45pm Alternative hypothesis

or "literate" before "looking".  Never Forget (socal girls)

11/02/2011 - 1:10pm Note on his recruitment

When asked by Dylan of UMHoops.com on who was recruiting Mitch, the big guy responded "IU, Purdue, Marquette, Ole Miss, Oregon State, Miami (FL), Cincinnati, Xavier, Dayton and Ball State. I think that’s about it."

SO happy we got in on guys like him, Stauskas, and GRIII early.

11/01/2011 - 11:29pm represent the west coast

use "bra" dammit!

...gosh....
 

11/01/2011 - 4:04pm That's like

Dantonio and Tressel, but with actual integrity!

11/01/2011 - 4:02pm You

are wrong.  See: Charlie Ward.

11/01/2011 - 2:30am You are

either amusingly sarcastic

or a pretty, pretty princess.

11/01/2011 - 2:05am Belein's Recruitment

No one else knows this, because no one else is as much of a BBall junkie as I am.  Yet, it is uber-awesome, and needs to be said.

MM was recruited by Coach B a LONG time ago, back when he was a '11 recruit.  Yes, he was a '11 recruit, and not a highly ranked one at that.  (I don't have a link, but ask Dylan from UMHoops.com.  It was on there a few years ago.)  Dook wasn't recruiting him, UNC wasn't recruiting him, heck, IU wasn't even recruiting him. 

We all talk about how Coach B is an outstanding evaluator of talent.  But let me put this into perspective. He picked:

2*s: Dougless, Novak

3*s: THJ, Robinson (at the time), MM (at the time), Buke (at the time), Morgan

I know I'm leaving a few out, but the point is made.  Coach B knows both whom and how to recruit.  The most important part is he knows how to coach talent in the offseason and during practice.  He's simply one of the best coaches out there in recruiting.

Caveats: He hasn't picked up anyone big (yet.)  Regardless, his classes have been getting better and better each and every year. (HT: espn)  '12 will (dur) be the best one yet.

And in case you missed it: Coach B is a good recruiter, talent evaluator, and coach.  That is all.

11/01/2011 - 12:50am Respectfully Disagree

They're a better team than I think most people give them credit for.  For one, they're like, ranked, you know.

10/26/2011 - 2:34pm Denard Pre-Snap Reads

Don't happen.  I am more nervous than before.

10/24/2011 - 11:39pm FaceBook Stalking

EDIT: I'm old news. Nothing to see here.

10/24/2011 - 11:25pm Three Letters

S.E.C. 

10/20/2011 - 9:20pm I Disagree

First, I want to keep this respectful.  If you think I'm being harsh, tell me and I'll stop/edit my comments.  That being said, here we go

"Says who?"  Well, UMhoops for one.  Also, while I can't find the link, Belein has said as much, in both circumstances where he has had a new PG.

"How could we possibly know that" : The argument's similar to "Says who?"  There are a few knowledgable people who have played/watched/coached BB for a long time who say so.

"Who's to say [Burke is] even going to start" : Most of the pundits.  The reasons are these:

1.) Burke is the only true PG on the roster.  That means he's a natural distributer, a natural threat to drive, and athletic enough to not be scared by pressure.

2.) While you could switch another player in (the only two viable options are Brundidge and Dougless) Brundidge is not a natural distributer, and hasn't been one his whole career, so he's not likely to start.  Dougless, OTOH, is definately not going to play PG against Memphis, for two reasons.  First, we're playing against a very athletic team that WILL pressure us, and he handles that poorly.  Second, he's not a threat to drive, especially against an athletic team, whose PG is one of the most athletic in the country.

To recap, Burke or Brundidge are going to start against athletic teams, with Burke being the most likely.  In either case, you've got a Frosh starting, and Frosh usually do not do well.  If you can think of any holes in my logic, please let me know, and I'll think about it.

10/20/2011 - 2:06pm Point

But at the same time, how much can you learn from games against Directional State, Unheard of State, and Towson?

Burke will struggle early on, of that there's no doubt.  While it won't be his first game (my mistake) it will still be early.  I really don't expect us to do well in the beginning of the season.  If you doubt me, just look at '09, with Morris as a first year starter.

10/20/2011 - 1:16pm PG=new

It bears reminding that a new PG playing his first game against a top 10 team might lead to us losing that (his first) game.  I'll wait until B1G season to judge.

10/15/2011 - 9:36pm Counter?

What are his rushing stats in those situations?

10/15/2011 - 4:28pm you

Iz silly.  I'm drunk and that doesn't even make sense.

10/15/2011 - 3:28pm Drunk?

are you?

10/13/2011 - 7:57pm Of note:

Chris Carter is not Chris Carter Jr.  I had to remind someone about that earlier.

 

CC's son is at 'Bama and is named Duron. 

/Making sure no stoopid stuff is said

10/12/2011 - 2:29pm Kovacs did the correct thing

In a 1-on-2 situation, you take away the outside, forcing the ball to the middle where there are more defenders.  Kovacs basically took the pitch away and forced the QB inside, both good moves.

Basically, if he were to tackle the QB, ball would have been pitched before, and that's a definite TD.  If he takes away the pitch, and forces the QB inside, while slowing him down a little, that's not a guaranteed TD. 

10/12/2011 - 2:21pm Hey!

It's not just teenagers who are greedy.  You old people are too!

/s...but not really

10/12/2011 - 1:47pm Respect?

So....should we start respecting Crean a little more? *herd mentality*

10/12/2011 - 1:44pm Normal Proceedure

When you make a very accusational argument, you normally use examples or data to back it up.  I'd like to see some data.

Refs really don't have an agenda.  I can see the NCAA having one, but what you're saying is that either the refs have an agenda, which they keep to themselves (but...what's the incentive) or the NCAA is telling them to do it.  If the NCAA really has a program in place to cheat for Duke, then how do they get the refs to comply?  I mean, they have to give the refs an incentive right?  What is that?  A bribe, forcing refs to knowingly cheat?  Point is, if the NCAA has some conspiracy, they'd have to force the refs to comply.

I really don't think that refs have been forced to cheat for Duke for upteen years, and not one of them has said a thing about it.  I call bs.

10/12/2011 - 1:35pm I think I remember this before....

Saban did this.  Ironically, we're the hartless ones.

07/30/2011 - 1:18am Interesting

I will first state that I don't really know how much 700 lbs is...HOWEVA

 

1.) As a HS incoming sophomore weighing 130 lbs I squatted about 350. (Only half, but I'm less than half his weigh, and don't work out like he does.)

2.) Guys on my school rugby team squat around 625 (only two that I know of)

3.) Those guys and I are not really that strong.

 

Ergo, not really impressed...Then again, I could just be an ass.

07/08/2011 - 1:50am Cali

I feel you.  But it's even better since my jobb starts at noon, so I...
1.) Wake up
2.) Get my UM sports fix
3.) Leave for work

Life is good, mi amigo.