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Recent Comments

Date Title Body
06/07/2018 - 11:08am And Bluey,

You should be…

And Bluey,

You should be sad.

06/04/2018 - 8:15am Really appreciate it!!

I just want to chime in my thanks for the information you provide.  And I want to emphasize that when some stupid ass MF gets on your case (because things changed, info wasn't perfect, they didn't understand what you were saying, etc.) that they are indeed a stupid ass MF.  Thanks, as always, for your info.

05/31/2018 - 9:55am This is the closest to what I am feeling

11-1 regular season, win B1G championship game, lose in first round of playoffs, so 12-2, actually.

BTW - What's with posting at 5:21 AM?  You can't be a student (don't think).  I thought all students went to sleep at 4 AM or 5 AM.  Late shift?  Maintenance window gone bad?

04/27/2018 - 10:01am The realistic expectations

just went from 9 wins to 10.5 wins.

I am not realistic.  I think we are the favorite to win the B1G now.

04/23/2018 - 9:32am Wrong stat

- Need to use yards per attempt (6.2)

- QBR was 113

- 4 TDs to 2 INTs

So, hardly horrible.  Are these stats good?  Not particularly.  But they weren't horrible.

QB play WAS a big weakness last year.  Was Peters good?  No, he was bad.  But he was a freshman.

And I would bet a LOT of money that plenty of NFL starting QBs played worse in their freshman year (if they played at all) than Peters played last year.

03/13/2018 - 4:56pm Great!  Logged in just to +1

Great!  Logged in just to +1 you.

02/20/2018 - 5:31pm Mostly diagree here

We just need an average B1G OL (in run blocking AND pass pro) and an average B1G QB and without ANY other improvements we would challenge for the B1G championship every year.

JH has brought us so far.  The final steps may be the hardest, but we are close (not soooo close, but close).

02/20/2018 - 5:29pm Dead On!!

I understand the OL pass protection (with the emphasis on protecting the QB) was bad this year, but I really think people are ignoring the OSU game.

With a superior QB we would have blown OSU out (by at least 21 points). 

With an average B1G QB we win, easily.

With an average Div-1 QB with probably win.

It's the QB.  The QB.  The QB ... that has held us back the last two years :-(

02/16/2018 - 1:37pm There won't be a nuanced or intelligent discussion to

be had with them when the statistic changes either.

02/14/2018 - 8:12pm Thanks!!

I didn't just laugh, I litterally laughed out loud.  Good stuff.

02/14/2018 - 7:31pm Inflection point?

M-Dog, maybe TV has reached a point where it is almost as good as in person.  Radio, black & white TV, color TVs 20 years ago (or even 10 years ago) weren't good enough.  But maybe now they are?

I am not saying better TVs are the reason for decline in attendance or even the major  reason but they could be a major reason.

02/13/2018 - 12:57pm Exactly - QB play was terrible

Not exactly an easy fix (since it SEEMS we have QBs who can be average B1G QBs) but a lot easier than fixing Oline.

02/12/2018 - 2:45pm Nailed it

Yeah, it's amazing how many people think you should have big games against the best defenses. Uh, they wouldn't be the best defenses if people had big games against them.

How many teams had big games against the UM defense?

02/09/2018 - 1:27pm This!!

The OL was good at run blocking by the end of the year.

The runnings backs had GREAT stats in the OSU game.

Did the QBs suck?  Yeah, for the most part they did.  Was the OL suck at pass blocking?  Not quite, but it was bad.

Do teams have down years?  Yeah, unless you are Alabama under Saban or OSU under Meyer, or are on a roll (like USC once was or Clemson right now), teams have down years.

So, the end is not nigh.  I think we win between 9 and 11 games in 2018 and in the off chance that we go 8-5 next year, 2019 is still looking like a 11 win season.

02/09/2018 - 1:18pm Agree completely

This is really for Brian:

Yeah the QB play was quite bad, especially at the end of the year.

Yeah the OL play was bad, especially in pass blocking.

But those of us writing for and reading this blog for a long time have all "gone to hell" (like 3-9, apology to MSU, 5-7, etc) and been back.

8-5 this year was a bad thing.  Does it put on more pressure for 2018?  Yep.  Would a "mediocore 9-4" in 2018 put on even more pressure in 2019?  Yep.

But we have been here before.  And we know it can get a lot worse.  So, get up and attack the day.  Generate some optimism.  Look at past recruits like Devin Bush (national rank #312) and Khaleke Hudson (national rank #386) or the fact that Notre Dame sucked ass at 4-8 last year and that MSU sucked even more ass at 3-9 last year AND they both bounced back to 10-3 this year.

And we just have to recover from 8-5?  Jeesh.  Don't be a such a pussy.

Signed,

The JMFH Fan Club

02/09/2018 - 11:46am You Gonna Die!!

Just kidding.  I think the change of UM winning SHOULD be 90%,  but given the last 10 years, I wouldn't take a bet at higher than 75% (what is that 3 - 1 odds?)

02/09/2018 - 11:39am I like your optimism!!

I like your optimism!!

02/09/2018 - 11:01am Market's not down today!! Whoop!!

Bang me!

02/08/2018 - 11:18am Boom!!

Way to use actual facts to combat the narrative. 

Too bad you will be negged off the board if you don't get in line and talk how everything sucks and we should feel bad about the football program.

01/30/2018 - 10:01pm You do NOT belong on this site

You're supposed to bitch about Drevo and Pep and the Oline and being only #15 in recruiting and bitch about the fact that Harbaugh only has 28 wins in his three years here which is not nearly enough compared to 25 for Dantonio or 24 for Brian Kelly.

Pep Sucks!!  Drevo SUCKS!!  Harbaugh REALLY SUCKS!!

/s

01/30/2018 - 3:45pm This is scary

The primary investigator is close to MSU, the interim president in an MSU insider.

It's possible they sacrifice a few lambs and go on their merry way.

01/30/2018 - 12:44pm Completely agree

Izzo appears to have somewhat of a conscience.

Dantonio is pure sociopath.

01/30/2018 - 12:42pm Agreed

The powers that be at MSU (including the donors, alumni, and probably most of the students) just don't give a shit.  If they did, they wouldn't be in this mess in the first place.

01/30/2018 - 9:17am Juries

are fickle things.  Sometimes they will acquit somebody they think is guilty because of circumstances (they like the guy, it wasn't so bad, they don't like the victim, they don't like the prosecutor, etc).

They can also do the reverse.

Today if Izzo or Dantonio (who has the least evidence against him) were brought to trial on say obstruction of justice (nice, easy, vague charge) and then various evidence about the culture of the program was shown to the jury, they would probably get a hung jury but NO way they would be acquitted.  And that's as of today.

Again, it doesn't matter if they are actually guilty (legally speaking).  The jury wouldn't acquit them.  Period.

01/30/2018 - 8:59am Completely agree

Completely agree

01/30/2018 - 8:58am The primary investigation

should be handled by the prosecutor's office.  But if the university / coach thinks the player did something inappropriate (even if they don't completey believe the accusor) then there should be some sort of punishment.

But as soon as the unversity hears the accusation, it has to go to the legal authorities.

01/28/2018 - 9:55pm ^^^^

This!!

Everybody makes mistakes but the kind of shit these guys did is horrifying, even if isn't 1/100th as bad as Nassar.

01/28/2018 - 9:30pm If you don't like it

Can't you just ignore it?

01/27/2018 - 10:04pm 3 years actually, but who's counting?

Not you, I guess

01/26/2018 - 9:55am Good strong editorial

Hits all the points, just hard enough.

We'll see if people in charge will listen.

01/10/2018 - 11:28pm Thanks

for telling it like it is.  One down year (not that bad, look at previous UM coaches down years) and people are forgetting the 10+ years of great HCing by Harbaugh.

01/10/2018 - 11:02pm Well said!!

Well said!!

01/10/2018 - 10:56pm I wonder

if that creeps out his wife?

01/08/2018 - 10:40pm Bravo!!

Finally!!  A rational and cogent poster on MGoBlog.  I was thinking this was turning into some sort weird anti-universe RCMB.

(Most posters know, but blow by the fact that we had 40 freshman and 18 sophomores on the 2017 team.)

01/05/2018 - 1:26pm So very well put!!

So very well put!!

01/05/2018 - 1:23pm So last year's 3-9 doesn't count??

That's what has aways confused me.  Harbaugh IS 1-2 against MSU.  Yes, bad, though one was on fluke, but still.  And this year was a legit loss.  When you have 5 TOs you deserve to lose.

But let's see ... since Harbaugh has been here, U-M is 28-11 and MSU is 25-14.  MSU is pretty much back to it's mean.  They should be winning about 8 or 9 games a year.  Michigan should be a bit better.

Yeah, this season sucked.  Yeah, the bowl game sucked.  Yeah, I whined and complained after the bowl game (not on MGoBlog).  But the results are there.  Under Harbaugh UM is better than MSU.  And probably always will be.

01/05/2018 - 1:11pm Just wondering ...

Did the offense get a lot more complex in 2017 than it was in 2015 or 2016??

01/05/2018 - 1:08pm Finally!!

An optimistic but very clear and well thought out comment.  I couldn't have said it better myself.  Agree with you completely!!

01/05/2018 - 1:03pm Good point

The easier games will help.  It's also unclear exactly how tough Notre Dame, Neb, NW, MSU, PSU, and ISU will be.  They won't be bad as a group, but they could doable.  All depends on the UM offense. 

Maybe I am big optimist but I wouldn't be surprised if we went 6 - 0 against them and I WOULD be very suprised if we went worse than 4 - 2. 

01/05/2018 - 10:27am Just curious

Where did you get those stats?  Especially the third quarter stats.  Is there a place to get them or did you have to calculate them (using play by play or whatever)?

12/28/2017 - 12:31am Awesome!!

Agree completely!!

12/28/2017 - 12:29am Swinney was 10 - 4 in year 3

after going 15 - 12 his first two full years as head coach.

12/28/2017 - 12:24am What a difference

a year makes.

If we look at just the previous 3 years before each became head coach (3.5 for Swinney) and 3 years after (3.5 for Swinney) we see the following:

Pri3 % - win% the three years before each became head coach

Fir3 % - win % the first three years as head coach

Pri3 L - number of losses by the team for the 3 years before each became head coach

Fir3 L - number of losses the first three years as head coach

Improv - The improvement of each stat

Coach Team Pri3 % Fir3 % Improv Pri3 L Fir3 L Improv
Saban MSU 0.471 0.543 0.072 18 16 2
Saban LSU 0.471 0.684 0.214 18 12 6
Saban Ala 0.595 0.805 0.210 15 8 7
Kelly ND 0.432 0.718 0.286 21 11 10
Swinney Cle 0.636 0.604 -0.032 16 19 -3
Dantonio MSU 0.400 0.564 0.164 21 17 4
Harbaugh UM 0.526 0.718 0.192 18 11 7

(I am assuming UM losses the bowl game).

Harbaugh is close to the middle in improvement of winning % (4th best) and above average in reducing the number of losses (tied for 2nd best).

And, as you can see above, Harbaugh is in the discussion with Saban and Swinney (two great coaches, IMO), not as good as Kelly (at best a very good coach, IMO) and better than Dantonio (a very good but not great coach, IMO).

Seems like Harbaugh is at a minimum a very good coach and very possibly a great coach.

12/13/2017 - 1:35pm Wow! You don't know anything about economics, do you?

Ever heard of cartels (NCAA)?

Ever heard of barriers to entry?

Ever heard of new businesses creating new markets?  How could somebody create a new market because the lack of a market indicates there is no such market??

Go take an Econ 101 course before talking about markets.

12/12/2017 - 12:51pm I don't see the extra love for Peters

Unless people know something more, Peters seems like a good guy playing for a relatively good (ethically speaking) program that I root hard for.

I would much rather the best QB win but the 2nd best QB is so good, he ends up playing meaningful series every game.

12/12/2017 - 12:48pm I mostly agree with you

I think we will be KILLING it in 2019.  Unless there are multiple catastrophes, 2019 looks very likely to be a NC run (great team and easier schedule pretty much gaurantees it).

I think 2018 also has a chance of being great (I can easily see us going 11-1 or even 12-0) though if we get into the playoffs in 2018, we will likely lose in the first game.

I think that the reason people are so excited about 2018 is because the two biggest weaknesses on the team were LT and QB.  QB might still be one of the biggest weaknesses but feels like it been really shored up.

12/12/2017 - 12:43pm QB Play

I think given the makeup and quality of the two teams, with JH as the coach, UM will almost always beat MSU if the UM QB outplays the MSU QB.  That wasn't always the case, but will be, now and for the foreseeable future, as long as JH is coach.

12/12/2017 - 12:43pm QB Play

I think given the makeup and quality of the two teams, with JH as the coach, UM will almost always beat MSU if the UM QB outplays the MSU QB.  That wasn't always the case, but will be, now and for the foreseeable future, as long as JH is coach.

12/12/2017 - 12:33pm Agreed

The other "normalizing" factor would have to be which transfers other teams have added.

So this is an approximation but still intereresting (to me).  It also tells us that the top classes are much higher than us than we would like to think.

Luckily, given the average playoff teams' recruiting rankings, it probably doesn't matter that much.

12/12/2017 - 12:32pm Agreed

The other "normalizing" factor would have to be which transfers other teams have added.

So this is an approximation but still intereresting (to me).  It also tells us that the top classes are much higher than us than we would like to think.

Luckily, given the average playoff teams' recruiting rankings, it probably doesn't matter that much.