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Date Title Body
12/18/2014 - 5:25pm I use draftkings a ton for

I use draftkings a ton for football only, and have pulled out about $2k over a few different paypal transactions.  Very prompt and seamless.  I think football has quite a bit of skill to it.  Admittedly there's a little luck in who gets the TD, but with yards and receptions, there's enough stats to balance it out and make it more skill base.  With some modest research, it's not that hard to consistently win on draftkings and fanduel.  The keys I've found are trying to find a cheap QB that can muster up a 250/2TD day, and paying close attention to injuries.  Backup RBs and WRs can be gold.

 

The Lions do seem like an obvious defense choice this week.  Even with Cutler they would have been, given his propensity to throw INTs.

09/05/2014 - 9:50am Yup - the key is finding a

Yup - the key is finding a diamond or two in the rough.  I have some projections of weekly points that I use from a good fantasy football service, and am always trying to get to about 2.5 points per $1,000 spent.  I had 2.7 this week on each of the two lineups (one with the Thursday and one with the Sunday).  Hitting the homerun with the cheap guy usually means a good week.  Sanu was another gem at 3,200 - he's starting opposite Green and in a full PPR, is probably a shoo-in for 10-12 points.

The thing I've always disliked about Morris is he doesn't catch passes.  Those RBs that catch 4-5 a game get an extra 8-10 points vs him.   He always seems to underperform a bit on draftkings in my opinion.  I always do RBs and WRs last too, and when looking at RBs look for guys who I think are likely to catch a few passes - it adds a surprising amount of points on draftkings.  Woodhead, for example, was shockingly good last year on that site.

Edelman is still crazy cheap - guy is going to catch 100 passes this year again and is 5,300?  He's a nice complement to Brady in a tournament format, since you're trying to win the thing - in tournaments i usually will go with a QB/WR from the same team, since you need to hit 2-3 homeruns in that format.  in 50-50s and head to head I'm looking for more singles and doubles...

 

09/05/2014 - 9:28am I would add from a user

I would add from a user perspective, I agree with Seth that draftkings (and fanduel) both provide very strong user experiences in my opinions.  The other sites I've looked at seem to be very mediocre in terms of the user experience, so those two really stand out in my view if you're going to put real money into one of these sites. 

They also offer a nice match for first time deposits, so you have an opportunity to make some money even if you're only about 50-50 on wins.

09/05/2014 - 9:09am It is legal, as it's judged

It is legal, as it's judged to be a game of skill, not gambling.  So sites like Draftkings and Fanduel are legit.  I pulled out around $2k from fanduel last year.  And oh, by the way, if you win $600 or more, you get a 1099 and are taxed on it as miscellaneous income.  Which puts a bit of a damper on a big win.

I think Fanduel is better than Draftkings because there are more dummies on it.  Draftkings is less heavily marketed, and so the people on there tend to be smarter at this stuff overall.  Sometimes on fanduel it's clear you're playing against a really average fan, so making money on fanduel is much easier than on draftkings in my opinion. 

The key to winning at these sites is doing a modest amount of homework.  You make your bacon on backups that are suddenly starting, or lesser names that others haven't heard of or don't give enough credit to.  For example, I have Ben Tate and Bernard Pierce at RB this week, which I expect will get as much production as Alfred Morris and DeMarco Murray, but far far cheaper.  A couple of cheap options like that allow me to splurge on Dez Bryant & Marshawn Lynch.  Julian Edelman last year was my MVP - cheap every week, but gold in the PPR formats. 

08/31/2012 - 3:11pm I think a better description

I think a better description for the Taylor Lewan push would be "Still hates donkeys == Hates donkeys"...

 

And I also think the Hemingway replacements will be a downgrade - it's still too optimistic IMO to think that group can be a push considering how many times he bailed us out - Hemingway may well have been worth 2 of the wins (ND and VT) and was an eyelash from giving us an OT shot against Iowa.

08/28/2012 - 12:29pm Hot Clicks

This baby has gone mainstream now - it's up on Hot Clicks!

03/28/2012 - 7:35am Knee surgery

Ok, I'm having knee surgery on April 10th too - how weird is that?  Hopefully yours is a meniscus tear like mine - they say I'll be up and walking later that day, and back to exercising in less than a week...

01/05/2012 - 8:23am Has to be Desmond - I was in

Has to be Desmond - I was in school with him - played basketball with him a number of times.  Genuinely nice guy at the time (I assume he still is), and he never seemed to let the heisman stuff get to his head.  Obviously his on the field stuff was legendary...

01/04/2012 - 10:55am He seemed like a really good

He seemed like a really good punter coming into this year - frustrating to see the struggles this year.  As Gibbons proved, there is a significant mental aspect to the kicking game, so there is hope that he can be in the same stratosphere as Zoltan, but man, those punts were frustrating last night.

01/04/2012 - 10:53am So let me see if I understand

So let me see if I understand - we played an excellent D, didn't have a great game on offense (partially because our all-america center was playing on one foot), and now the team is hopeless until a high school junior can come in and be our savior? 

Denard didn't have a great game, but he developed as the season went on, and is still in the first year in Borges's system.  Two words give me hope....Cade McNown.  He was mediocre in his first year under Borges, lights out in his second year, and worthless as a pro.  So that tells me Borges has a pretty good mind, and Denard is still learning - John Navarre's second year as a starter wasn't so good...neither was Chad Henne's...and they both turned out ok. 

I'm hopeful that Denard will be pretty good next year.  The more pressing concern in my mind is depth on the lines.  Losing our best lineman on each side of the ball will really hurt...hopefully the development of the other young lineman is ahead of schedule.  That's the bigger issue with 2012 than Denard.

This team had no business winning 11 games - it was clear VT had more talent on both sides of the ball, and that comes down to recruiting...but the coaches did a tremendous job this year to pull off 11-2, so we should all be very happy about what that means for the future and for recruiting...

11/01/2011 - 6:46pm Geez - remember freshmen

Geez - remember freshmen Navarre vs. junior/senior Navarre?  Freshman Navarre made me want to tear my eyes out, while junior/senior Navarre was a pretty darn good QB

 

Or freshman Henne vs. junior/senior Henne?  Freshman Henne just threw it up randomly 3-4 times a game, and got away with it because of BE.  junior/senior Henne carved up most defenses he played when he had a functional throwing arm.

Vince Young was brutal as he was learning college football, and Gardner seems to have physical tools that are at least in the same ballpark as VY.

Assuming Gardner makes similar progress (not at all unlikely given the progression of past quarterbacks with a couple years in system), he'll be lights out in this offense in a couple years with his mobility, arm strength, and a couple years of seasoning (not to mention a couple recruiting classes for Borges to tailor his team to strengths. 

Play design like this makes me feel more & more comfortable we're not regressing to DeBoring style of offense anytime soon.  Great stuff as always Brian.

06/06/2011 - 7:32pm Am I the only one who noticed

Am I the only one who noticed this - as I recall from playing basketball against Desmond, he was at best 5'9".  Doesn't look like Denard is more than an inch taller at most in that shot.  The 6'0" on the roster may be a little embellishment...

02/22/2011 - 6:02pm I remember Vada was up at the

I remember Vada was up at the IM building pretty regularly playing basketball after he graduated.  I played against him a few times and he was obviously a special athlete.  He and Amani Toomer were the two football players I remember being ridiculous at basketball as well.  Both could jump sky high and had great moves - he had a sweet jump shot too.

I hope this ends up better than it sounds - he was always a nice guy at the gym too.  Didn't have the arrogant attitude about being a football player that some of the other guys I met or talked to had.

 

11/17/2010 - 7:09pm Umm.. the defense in 2006 was

Umm.. the defense in 2006 was leaps and bounds better than this defense, which might have something to do with the 11-2 record.  Michigan went into happy valley that year and didn't even have to try on offense to win - compare that to this year. 

I'd be willing to wager that this year's offense coupled with the 2006 defense, Garrett Rivas and Mesko would be 10-0 at this point as well.

11/11/2010 - 1:31pm Isn't a normal success rate

Isn't a normal success rate on a 2 point conversion against an average defense something like 40-45%.  I have to think that against our defense, the likely success rate is more like 55%.  If that's the case, teams should actually go for two every single time they score against M, as they'd get an average of 1.1 points for every conversion, as opposed to an average of say .96 points for every extra point attempt. 

But coaches ignore mathematics and stick to what they know, which is why the typical coach kicks extra points most of the time (and why they don't go for it more on 4th down. 

I'd say Illinois' chance of converting a 4th and 1 against our defense has to be around 85% or so.  You would then have to do the math of the likelihood they could move another 40 yards in a minute, but I'd say it's probably pretty good against our D.  One wheel of death route would have done it.  I bet the numbers would say going for it is the right call, but coaches by their nature are conservative - coach risky and lose, it's the coaches fault.  Coach conservatively and lose - it's the players fault.

11/10/2010 - 11:12am I would have thought Mercury

I would have thought Mercury Hayes would make this list - I know he didn't play for Bo, but it seemed like he had a ton of big play catches in 94-95 - surprised he wouldn't have averaged 20 yards a catch in one of those years..

11/08/2010 - 7:03pm The kid's first name is

The kid's first name is Desmond, he's what, 17 years old and lives in Michigan...do we really need to add that his dad is a big Michigan fan???

If I had a kid in 91/92/93, his first name probably would have been Desmond too!  Seriously, how can this kid go anywhere but Michigan with that legacy?

Great stuff as always, Tom.

11/06/2010 - 1:42pm Well, the over sure was a

Well, the over sure was a good bet!

11/02/2010 - 10:42pm But doesn't that also make it

But doesn't that also make it an enticing opportunity?  The reality is, if a D coordinator comes in and is moderately successful, isn't next year's team 9-3 at worst?  If this defense gets to 60th in the nation, with a top 5-10 offense and a lot of the key games at home, there's a great shot for a great year. 

It seems to me it wouldn't take much success from a D coordinator to bring a great year in 2011.  Not to mention the prestige of restoring a program that has seen its worst three year stretch in at least my lifetime.

11/02/2010 - 10:36pm Guess it's time to hold more

Guess it's time to hold more student body tryouts.  Let's send Gibson walking the halls of Alice Lloyd or Markley to find some depth at CB...

11/02/2010 - 10:34pm That's awesome - nice to see

That's awesome - nice to see some success for Michigan today. 

11/02/2010 - 10:33pm I guess after giving it more

I guess after giving it more thought - we rent tuxes, and god knows some disgusting things happen in them too. 

I have to wonder about the profitability too - how many times does a jersey get rented before it becomes too dirty to rent.  I guess if it's the blue home jersey, probably takes awhile.  My Drew Henson 2000 jersey is still holding on 10 years later...

11/02/2010 - 10:20pm That was really interesting. 

That was really interesting.  It does go to show how one player's reaction can have such a massive impact on whether or not the defense plays successfully.

11/02/2010 - 10:17pm I filled out the survey.  The

I filled out the survey.  The idea is unique, but man, the thought of what might have taken place in that jersey before I rented it...no thanks.

11/02/2010 - 9:23pm I was rooting for tacopants -

I was rooting for tacopants - if he didn't transfer to Connecticut, we'd have a viable position switch.  We could use his height at corner.

11/02/2010 - 9:21pm it's a blessing in disguise. 

it's a blessing in disguise.  Think about it - now opposing QBs will be confused about which wide open receiver to throw to.  Instead of automatically picking on whoever is opposite JT, they won't know which receiver to throw to.  They'll now have to go through progressions and determine who is most wide open.   By the time they figure out which wide open guy to throw to, Martin will have sacked them.

 

Glass half full....glass half full...