OP, I think you're assuming that the loss incurred by tipping your hand to the defense would be more than offset by the improvement in pass blocking.
However, the opposite is true, because a defense that is close to certain about a pending pass play can negate the blocker's skill in one of two ways:
(1) send so many rushers (say, 6 or 7) that the D wins on pure numbers regardless of OL skill, or
(2) send so few rushers (say, 3) that the WRs are blanketed, and the extra OL skill provides no advantage.
Put another way, this highlights why the "blocky/catchy" types, deployed properly within Harbaugh's offense, are so valuable: the offense can do radically different things with the same personnel.
Close but not quite...
(begin Catholic pedantry)
Forgiveness (absolution) is always immediately available, but there may be a remaining temporal punishment due to sin for the satisfaction of justice. Indulgences are for the latter.
An analogy would be when your kid totals your car: if the child shows contrition, you forgive him, but you might still demand that he makes some sort of remuneration to compensate for the lost car. Or, by completing your summer landscape work, you waive the need for a cash payment.
(close of Catholic pedantry)
I don't think Harbaugh intended it as harshly as it comes across in print (disclaimer: I haven't listened to the presser audio to see if there's clarity in the tone of voice).
The phrase reminds me of his "put steel in your spine" comment, except a little more silly. I hear it as a lighthearted way of saying something serious regarding the need to eliminate distractions and doubts and move forward controlling what you can.
For all we know, Harbaugh has had a paternal conversation with Nordin using the expression as a memorable summary of the pep talk. To call this a brazen call-out and to compare Harbaugh to Kelly in this way is, I suggest, representative of a rather simplistic read of the situation.
I completely agree. Unforunately, this reminds me so much of U-M fans at different points this season - wanting to fire JayBaugh, Drevno, and even Harbaugh himself (not to mention Don Brown after the PSU debacle or after Rutgers scored a TD).
I would love to look down upon the Buckeye fanbase for this kind of thing, but I honestly think many Michigan fans have been no better this season.
I would guess zone read. If he's always crashing down and the linebacks are shooting the interior gaps, then the QB keeper option should be good for 5 even with a terrible WR block on the CB. Get a good block on the edge and you might be forcing the safety to make a TD-saving tackle.
I read through some of your recent comments, and it looks like you've already argued this well a couple of times over the last two days, and WD just wants to keep bringing it up. So in that context, I now understand why you would be short with him.
Hi Bando. I think you are right that the current situation of TV contracts funding a large chunk of the Michigan athletics budget leads to a significant influence on scheduling that won't be done away by the preferences of a few folks.
Do you think your original comment will persuade someone who doesn't see it the same way?
I was rather intrigued by a snippet from a Baumgardner article last week. He reported that they asked Jim (I think some time ago) about a photo from 2015 spring practice where Jim's head is in his hands as he sits on a bench. Jim said he remembered that moment perfectly because he was looking around and thinking they honestly might not win a game that year.
From that, and realizing that Jim has played and coached championship-level football, I think he KNOWS all too painfully how bad things are. He probably knew it going into the season. And he knows what the path forward looks like in outline, and he'll adjust as necessary to stay on course (including making roster and staff decisions).
I mean, we're not questioning Ace's woke-credentials here, right? I know he's got me beat by about 10 miles in that department. You can assume someone is making stereotypes, or you can ask more about what they mean. Maybe it turns out the person in question is indeed an asshole. Then you will have discovered it legitimately via polite discourse.
In "Bo's Lasting Lessons," Bo described how he could forgive a lot of things, but he couldn't work with a liar. Maybe Johnson originally told a cover story that he later recanted - that could be enough to dismiss him even if the underlying offense turns out to be non-life-ruining.
I think this is a good point. I find it hard to believe that so many folks supposedly knew JOK would play against UF but didn't share it. Usually, if it's the kind of info that more than 1 press person knows, it leaks out as "report: sources say ___." (Whereas sometimes 1 person, like Sam Webb, knows something by personal connection, and it informs his commentary and narrative but isn't shared explicitly.)
I haven't heard folks other than Webb say "JOK looked great from Rome onward," but it again stretches credibility to pound that line after he goes in and plays well. Where was that commentary when he had 2 series against UF and didn't do anything?
In summary: some folks just really want to seem astute and can't admit being surprised. One of my favorite things about Brian's takes is he readily admits inaccuracy (e.g. being too optimistic about the freshman receivers).
I listened, and you're right about how they "resolved" the dispute. However, it seemed like they actually still had a fundamental disagreement. It didn't quite get worked out because (1) Brian used hyperbole to emphasize his point that Ed misinterpreted, and (2) Brian didn't explain his point fully.
RE: (1), Brian claimed that "red zone offense" doesn't exist, meaning that a team runs its offense regardless of field position. He admitted that this was wrong because short yardage "heavy" plays and short fades play a disproportional role in red zone offense, so a correct statement would be "red zone offense is an overblown idea."
RE: (2), Brian's evidence consisted of a study on NFL teams that found early-season red zone success had almost no predictive power for later-season red zone success. That is, unlike many other metrics (like completion percentage or yards allowed per attempt) where you can mostly expect what has happened to continue happening, red zone offense is more like turnovers, where you shouldn't necessarily expect what has happened to continue happening.
Ed didn't grasp either (1) or (2), but I don't blame him because Brian's (good) points weren't communicated well. Ed was focused on the fact that if you can measure it, it matters.
On Speight's final play, the first defender to hit him (not the guy who hit his back) ran right by Cole, and not in the "beat him with speed" sense - Cole didn't block anyone on the play.
He listed the top 10 team on the left consistently. Not that it's the only way to make such a list, but he chose a standard and stuck to it. Clear enough, right?
I agree that U-M will win, probably handily, but this early in the season, all stats are heavily skewed by a lack of sample size. So a large portion of Missouri's poor rating is their bad game against Purdue, which makes it barely more informative than knowing the score of the game.
My son was born the night that Winter Storm Jonas hit our town with 22" of snow.
I drove through 8" of snow to get my wife to the hospital. Our official time of admittance was 11:36 PM, and my son's official time of birth was 11:50 PM.
2003 Mazda Tribute (V6) earned my undying respect that night for powering through it. I don't think I will ever regret spending $500 on snow tires, either.
Alex, I like these notes a lot. I don't watch many other games besides U-M, and I always have a bad experience trying to get this kind of info from ESPN, CBS, etc.
Besides the big headings you use (Power 5 vs. Power 5, etc.), could you use some smaller headings to break up the paragraphs visually a bit more? The three dashes and the bold caps on team names both help, but I think the column could use a little more visual hierarchy. Also, the top section should have a name (Headliners?).
Good points. However, at that time, Urban was still the hottest thing in coaching. I think the Clemson loss is a pretty big stain on his resume and removes some of the benefit of the doubt he got in 2014.
OK, since the OP has been satisfied, I'll threadjack and ask is anyone going to A2Y.asm tomorrow? It's my first time going to something like that, and I would love to meet up with an MGoBlogger.
I think Craig is right in spirit about OSU being eliminated from the playoff. While the comparison to the VaTech loss en route to the championship is relevant, I speculate that MSU's and OSU's blowout, shutout losses in the playoffs hurts the Big Ten's rep at least a little with the committee. Even if OSU runs the table from here, we pretty frequently see 0- or 1-loss champions from the rest of the Power 5. Given those embarrassing losses, if the ACC, SEC, B12, and Pac-12 all have 0- or 1-loss champions, I would anticipate OSU being the team left out based on recent history and the ugly OU loss. (I actually suspect U-M may not be penalized the same way as a 1-loss Big Ten champion because they haven't been to the playoff yet.)
I like when Brian brings up his HenneCharting to rationalize the QB discussions. I think he could push that a bit more just because it adds so much credibility (but hopefully QB isn't even a topic of concern again!).
Also, thanks for calling Sam out on being flat wrong about U-M always honoring the band and tradition first. Sam is great, but that was a "company man" kind of statement, and we shouldn't pretend U-M is tradition-first on the gameday experience given the current music arrangement.
Ace: nice job with the previews the last two weeks while the boss was busy! You matched his style really well (which I think is valuable when filling in, even if usually it's good that you have your own style).
Your question is answered above...chiming in to offer one contrary experience re: toddlers at the game (maybe you saw the thread earlier this summer where the topic got swarmed).
I took a 10-month-old and had a great time (Maryland last year). He is an easy kid overall, though, and obviously you've seen the differences between your kids and can make a good judgment. Don't worry if everyone tells you it's impossible.
I think that's the point he's making. No one cares about the in-studio discussion nearly as much as the actual games, and ESPN broadcasts lots of games with higher production quality than most competitors. E.g. consider your typical BTN announcing team.
I think through last season the blame would be there because he was a big part of the talent identification, recruiting, and foundational development for the seniors.
"Mike DeBord runs something that’s as appealing as Wilson’s offense when it comes to recruits. DeBord is so efficient as a coordinator. His offenses show so much confidence and great timing on film. It was a great hire for Allen."
Isn't that exactly the point of the poster to whom you replied? Few mocks at the time projected DJ as a first-rounder, so it looked like a bad decision.
I agree with a poster below who observes that some of these ranking jumps are mostly due to DJ's affirmed commitment to the draft, but that doesn't negate that the mock drafts are generally seen as the best information available for evaluating a player's decision.
Of course, any comments then or now that criticize DJ as a person (rather than his decision) are silly, but that's not the point. Folks who thought the decision was bad then were working with information available at the time. With updated mocks, DJ's decision looks more reasonable.
I read Season of Life in college, and it helped me quite a bit.
Without going into personal details on the internet, I had a lot to sort out from growing up with my dad, and while I had unconsciously gravitated toward some replacement man-, husband- and father-models, the book helped me do that more intentionally and put additional lessons from my mentors into practice in my life.
Though discussions of true masculinity tend to ward off folks wary of gender roles, I think the content in Season of Life (especially that men are defined not by conquest but by strong relationships including the inherent responsibilities) is interesting for almost anyone to consider.
Recent Comments
OP, I think you're assuming that the loss incurred by tipping your hand to the defense would be more than offset by the improvement in pass blocking.
However, the opposite is true, because a defense that is close to certain about a pending pass play can negate the blocker's skill in one of two ways:
(1) send so many rushers (say, 6 or 7) that the D wins on pure numbers regardless of OL skill, or
(2) send so few rushers (say, 3) that the WRs are blanketed, and the extra OL skill provides no advantage.
Put another way, this highlights why the "blocky/catchy" types, deployed properly within Harbaugh's offense, are so valuable: the offense can do radically different things with the same personnel.
My favorite part of your comment is that the DL is so good that I wasn't sure who "Godzilla" referenced between Gary and Hurst!
A true LOL for me - thanks very much!
(begin
I don't think Harbaugh intended it as harshly as it comes across in print (disclaimer: I haven't listened to the presser audio to see if there's clarity in the tone of voice).
The phrase reminds me of his "put steel in your spine" comment, except a little more silly. I hear it as a lighthearted way of saying something serious regarding the need to eliminate distractions and doubts and move forward controlling what you can.
For all we know, Harbaugh has had a paternal conversation with Nordin using the expression as a memorable summary of the pep talk. To call this a brazen call-out and to compare Harbaugh to Kelly in this way is, I suggest, representative of a rather simplistic read of the situation.
I completely agree. Unforunately, this reminds me so much of U-M fans at different points this season - wanting to fire JayBaugh, Drevno, and even Harbaugh himself (not to mention Don Brown after the PSU debacle or after Rutgers scored a TD).
I would love to look down upon the Buckeye fanbase for this kind of thing, but I honestly think many Michigan fans have been no better this season.
Isn't this wrong? If we don't know his position, then we would know his velocity.
So it should be "but at least we know how fast he's moving."
I like the joke anyway.
Also, if
Wasem is fantastic.
Also, if you have a meat smoker, Wasem will sell apple and cherry wood by the truckful for cheap.
Could have just said "Big Ten opponent."
I would guess zone read. If he's always crashing down and the linebacks are shooting the interior gaps, then the QB keeper option should be good for 5 even with a terrible WR block on the CB. Get a good block on the edge and you might be forcing the safety to make a TD-saving tackle.
Haven't read this yet but super pumped based on the DFW reference in the title.
Was that Brian's editorship? Or is DFW required reading during MGoOnboarding?
I read through some of your recent comments, and it looks like you've already argued this well a couple of times over the last two days, and WD just wants to keep bringing it up. So in that context, I now understand why you would be short with him.
Hi Bando. I think you are right that the current situation of TV contracts funding a large chunk of the Michigan athletics budget leads to a significant influence on scheduling that won't be done away by the preferences of a few folks.
Do you think your original comment will persuade someone who doesn't see it the same way?
You know, I actually understand what you're saying (reading charitably) and think you're right, but to express it this way...
"Law of identity. Current year."
...is silly. But I guess you're just tired of going at it with WD?
I can't think of another reason to write a correct comment so unpersuasively.
This is speculation disguised as statements of fact.
Here's a fact: the offense hasn't had a terrible year under JH yet, and it hasn't had the top coordinator leave. (Durkin wasn't fired!)
Firing a coordinator mid-season is dumb because you can't hire anyone good mid-season. Jim is most likely to adjust after this season.
I
I tend to agree with you.
I was rather intrigued by a snippet from a Baumgardner article last week. He reported that they asked Jim (I think some time ago) about a photo from 2015 spring practice where Jim's head is in his hands as he sits on a bench. Jim said he remembered that moment perfectly because he was looking around and thinking they honestly might not win a game that year.
From that, and realizing that Jim has played and coached championship-level football, I think he KNOWS all too painfully how bad things are. He probably knew it going into the season. And he knows what the path forward looks like in outline, and he'll adjust as necessary to stay on course (including making roster and staff decisions).
I mean, we're not questioning Ace's woke-credentials here, right? I know he's got me beat by about 10 miles in that department. You can assume someone is making stereotypes, or you can ask more about what they mean. Maybe it turns out the person in question is indeed an asshole. Then you will have discovered it legitimately via polite discourse.
That was Saruman, not Sauron.
He shouldn't have called you an idiot, but you made a negative assumption about what he meant by "looks."
In "Bo's
Maybe, maybe not.
In "Bo's Lasting Lessons," Bo described how he could forgive a lot of things, but he couldn't work with a liar. Maybe Johnson originally told a cover story that he later recanted - that could be enough to dismiss him even if the underlying offense turns out to be non-life-ruining.
I think this is a good point. I find it hard to believe that so many folks supposedly knew JOK would play against UF but didn't share it. Usually, if it's the kind of info that more than 1 press person knows, it leaks out as "report: sources say ___." (Whereas sometimes 1 person, like Sam Webb, knows something by personal connection, and it informs his commentary and narrative but isn't shared explicitly.)
I haven't heard folks other than Webb say "JOK looked great from Rome onward," but it again stretches credibility to pound that line after he goes in and plays well. Where was that commentary when he had 2 series against UF and didn't do anything?
In summary: some folks just really want to seem astute and can't admit being surprised. One of my favorite things about Brian's takes is he readily admits inaccuracy (e.g. being too optimistic about the freshman receivers).
Where did you hear this?
I listened, and you're right about how they "resolved" the dispute. However, it seemed like they actually still had a fundamental disagreement. It didn't quite get worked out because (1) Brian used hyperbole to emphasize his point that Ed misinterpreted, and (2) Brian didn't explain his point fully.
RE: (1), Brian claimed that "red zone offense" doesn't exist, meaning that a team runs its offense regardless of field position. He admitted that this was wrong because short yardage "heavy" plays and short fades play a disproportional role in red zone offense, so a correct statement would be "red zone offense is an overblown idea."
RE: (2), Brian's evidence consisted of a study on NFL teams that found early-season red zone success had almost no predictive power for later-season red zone success. That is, unlike many other metrics (like completion percentage or yards allowed per attempt) where you can mostly expect what has happened to continue happening, red zone offense is more like turnovers, where you shouldn't necessarily expect what has happened to continue happening.
Ed didn't grasp either (1) or (2), but I don't blame him because Brian's (good) points weren't communicated well. Ed was focused on the fact that if you can measure it, it matters.
On Speight's final play, the first defender to hit him (not the guy who hit his back) ran right by Cole, and not in the "beat him with speed" sense - Cole didn't block anyone on the play.
He listed the top 10 team on the left consistently. Not that it's the only way to make such a list, but he chose a standard and stuck to it. Clear enough, right?
Tweeting is strong arming?
I agree that U-M will win, probably handily, but this early in the season, all stats are heavily skewed by a lack of sample size. So a large portion of Missouri's poor rating is their bad game against Purdue, which makes it barely more informative than knowing the score of the game.
My son
I have a good one...
My son was born the night that Winter Storm Jonas hit our town with 22" of snow.
I drove through 8" of snow to get my wife to the hospital. Our official time of admittance was 11:36 PM, and my son's official time of birth was 11:50 PM.
2003 Mazda Tribute (V6) earned my undying respect that night for powering through it. I don't think I will ever regret spending $500 on snow tires, either.
Alex, I like these notes a lot. I don't watch many other games besides U-M, and I always have a bad experience trying to get this kind of info from ESPN, CBS, etc.
Besides the big headings you use (Power 5 vs. Power 5, etc.), could you use some smaller headings to break up the paragraphs visually a bit more? The three dashes and the bold caps on team names both help, but I think the column could use a little more visual hierarchy. Also, the top section should have a name (Headliners?).
This was my first "log in to upvote" post. Great job!
Good points. However, at that time, Urban was still the hottest thing in coaching. I think the Clemson loss is a pretty big stain on his resume and removes some of the benefit of the doubt he got in 2014.
OK, since the OP has been satisfied, I'll threadjack and ask is anyone going to A2Y.asm tomorrow? It's my first time going to something like that, and I would love to meet up with an MGoBlogger.
I think Craig is right in spirit about OSU being eliminated from the playoff. While the comparison to the VaTech loss en route to the championship is relevant, I speculate that MSU's and OSU's blowout, shutout losses in the playoffs hurts the Big Ten's rep at least a little with the committee. Even if OSU runs the table from here, we pretty frequently see 0- or 1-loss champions from the rest of the Power 5. Given those embarrassing losses, if the ACC, SEC, B12, and Pac-12 all have 0- or 1-loss champions, I would anticipate OSU being the team left out based on recent history and the ugly OU loss. (I actually suspect U-M may not be penalized the same way as a 1-loss Big Ten champion because they haven't been to the playoff yet.)
I like when Brian brings up his HenneCharting to rationalize the QB discussions. I think he could push that a bit more just because it adds so much credibility (but hopefully QB isn't even a topic of concern again!).
Also, thanks for calling Sam out on being flat wrong about U-M always honoring the band and tradition first. Sam is great, but that was a "company man" kind of statement, and we shouldn't pretend U-M is tradition-first on the gameday experience given the current music arrangement.
Just wait until you find out how the OJ verdict goes...don't worry; I won't spoil it for you.
Enthusiasm Unknown, Man Too Kind?
The feeling in the stadium after that big hit (the post-targeting revenge) was total bloodlust.
Fans had been pissed at the refs, and Gary's hit was like a return volley that usually never gets fired back at the referees.
I can't think of another time in my (limited) in-person viewing of football that folks gave a standing ovation to a hit that wasn't a sack or TFL.
Ace: nice job with the previews the last two weeks while the boss was busy! You matched his style really well (which I think is valuable when filling in, even if usually it's good that you have your own style).
Your question is answered above...chiming in to offer one contrary experience re: toddlers at the game (maybe you saw the thread earlier this summer where the topic got swarmed).
I took a 10-month-old and had a great time (Maryland last year). He is an easy kid overall, though, and obviously you've seen the differences between your kids and can make a good judgment. Don't worry if everyone tells you it's impossible.
Is it pedantry to use words correctly?
I think that's the point he's making. No one cares about the in-studio discussion nearly as much as the actual games, and ESPN broadcasts lots of games with higher production quality than most competitors. E.g. consider your typical BTN announcing team.
I think through last season the blame would be there because he was a big part of the talent identification, recruiting, and foundational development for the seniors.
We brought my son to the Maryland game last year (he was ~9 months old).
He lasted through the whole game, which surprised us. My wife was willing to leave early with him if necessary, which I think was important.
We got him lots of snacks and ensured he had good naps beforehand. We had a few family members to share in holding/wrangling him.
It wasn't totally easy, but it was very fun. You probably know that you can't predict whether the kiddo will have a really bad day though.
It's Texas...every school thinks it has a Manifest Destiny to be best in the state.
(observed during a beloved, brief residency in the state)
"Mike
This is just weird...
"Mike DeBord runs something that’s as appealing as Wilson’s offense when it comes to recruits. DeBord is so efficient as a coordinator. His offenses show so much confidence and great timing on film. It was a great hire for Allen."
Isn't that the point of using the word "overreaction"? Something needed to be fixed, but the fix is over-the-top. That's just what the word means.
This is excellent info worthy of a new topic even if there were 5 threads already. Thank you.
There has never been any music greater than that of Bach.
Isn't that exactly the point of the poster to whom you replied? Few mocks at the time projected DJ as a first-rounder, so it looked like a bad decision.
I agree with a poster below who observes that some of these ranking jumps are mostly due to DJ's affirmed commitment to the draft, but that doesn't negate that the mock drafts are generally seen as the best information available for evaluating a player's decision.
Of course, any comments then or now that criticize DJ as a person (rather than his decision) are silly, but that's not the point. Folks who thought the decision was bad then were working with information available at the time. With updated mocks, DJ's decision looks more reasonable.
Bach. The only music anyone needs!
I read Season of Life in college, and it helped me quite a bit.
Without going into personal details on the internet, I had a lot to sort out from growing up with my dad, and while I had unconsciously gravitated toward some replacement man-, husband- and father-models, the book helped me do that more intentionally and put additional lessons from my mentors into practice in my life.
Though discussions of true masculinity tend to ward off folks wary of gender roles, I think the content in Season of Life (especially that men are defined not by conquest but by strong relationships including the inherent responsibilities) is interesting for almost anyone to consider.