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01/25/2018 - 4:49pm I don’t know what’s happening

I don’t know what’s happening or not happening. I did like the Enos hire, and I also liked Warriner.

But I do know if we lose Enos or Warriner because we retained Hamilton and Drevno and couldn’t offer the promise of a coordinator spot, that’d be an epic fuck-up.

08/18/2017 - 1:30pm I know this board will hate

I know this board will hate (1) alternate uniforms and (2) Notre Dame, but I think these are completely awesome.  I doubt I'll watch the Navy game, but I can't wait to see them in action in photos or highlights.

04/01/2017 - 1:19pm This gave me chills.

This gave me chills.

03/12/2017 - 5:19pm I literally came to MGoBlog

I literally came to MGoBlog to post a penance thread.

In 2008, I was a senior.  Michigan had been bad for a long time.  The student section had basically nobody in it throughout most of the season.  It was Beilein's second year.

He promised to bring donuts for the Maize Rage Core one time if we came early enough.  He brought the donuts as promised before a game in October.  There were probably twenty people there with only two hours to go before tipoff.

He addressed us.  "Thank you guys for coming early.  I need you guys this year."  We gave a cursory cheer.  Then - and this surprised me - he barked at us a little bit.  "NO.  You don't understand.  Our team isn't where it needs to be.  We're not very good right now, but we're going to get better.  I'm not just saying it - I need you guys this year."

Flash forward to December.  We beat Duke in a thriller in front of a Maize Rage that was 85% full.  Before the next game, the players came out early after warmups and went into the Maize Rage and shook hands and gave high fives.  I could feel the crowd slowly starting to believe.

So I went to the Maize Rage leadership and pitched an idea for a t-shirt.  It was a pretty simple design - BELIEVE was written in block letters, and they cast a shadow that read "BEILEIN."  The guys loved it, and we sold out in no time.  I personally gave John one of the shirts, and I also was able to give one to Erin Andrews.

So it is with a heavy heart that I admit my sins and offer penance.  I stopped believing.

I wish I could say I didn't know better.  But the truth is, I knew better back when I was younger.

I was missing for a while, but now I'm back.  I believe again.

02/07/2017 - 2:46pm Note that there are 84 names

Note that there are 84 names on this list, but one freshman appears to have been left off inadvertently.  Plus also note that two non-freshman players do not appear on this list.  I'm not saying, I'm just saying.

02/04/2017 - 3:20pm I ACTUALLY want you to go to

I ACTUALLY want you to go to prison for making this post.

02/02/2017 - 11:46am He was. Sorry, Brad.

He was. Sorry, Brad.

01/15/2017 - 4:38pm Many of Connoley's stats are

Many of Connoley's stats are adjusted for opponents.

Although it is a myth that Michigan merely beat up on inferior opponents and wilted against stronger ones as a team, this criticism held true with respect to offensive rushing performance.  Said differently, the defense thundercrushed Rutgers, but also played great against Ohio State.  But the rushing offense only looked good when the opponents were bad.

01/11/2017 - 10:49pm It is unethical to follow

It is unethical to follow rules when the rules are unethical.

01/11/2017 - 2:30pm You know why.

You know why.

01/11/2017 - 1:10pm I respect this point, and

I respect this point, and sort of agree.  But on the other hand, the war isn't over - the age of the dinosaurs is close to over, but is not quite over yet.

01/11/2017 - 12:58pm Anybody else ready for

Anybody else ready for Michigan to overtly, Fab Five / SEC-style pay recruits?  I am.

This isn't a case of falling into the common bad actor fallacy (that's the fallacy where you say "well if he's doing evil I can do evil).  Because paying players for their labor isn't evil.

I feel like Michigan is bending over backwards to compete without breaking an unethical rule within a system where nobody else follows that unethical rule.  And this effort, paradoxically, creates all these perverse incentives.

Quick, answer with your gut - Would you rather pay Aubrey Solomon 150K for his committment and break the rule?  Or pay (hypothetically) Aubrey Solomon's high school coach 150K to "do a job" that isn't real and benefits only that coach?  Which is more ethical?

And yes, I'd feel the same way about the matter if I knew that would mean OSU and MSU would do it too.

Let's just end this charade.

01/10/2017 - 9:14am (1) Watson and Washington

(1) Watson and Washington were each rated more highly than Sebastian is.

(2) Clark isn't guaranteed to get his sixth year, true.  But even if Sebastian commits, he won't likely be ready to play his first year.  So Clark's spot on the depth chart matters least for deciding whether to recruit Sebastian.

(3) I agree, they have.  But all I can do is offer my opinion on the state of the team and its needs (which should be afforded the weight of a typical online commenter), and I don't get why they feel they need another CB.  Another S I could understand.

(4) True.

(5) I don't think this adage applies here.  He plays for Cheshire Academy - the same team as Tarik Black, who is a borderline top 100 player.

01/10/2017 - 7:46am I trust the coaches, so I'm

I trust the coaches, so I'm fine with it.

But I don't understand it:

  1. CB is not a position of need.  Look at the depth chart.  This coming year, we'll have:
  • Potentially, one sixth year player:  Jeremy Clark
  • One redshirt junior:  Brandon Watson
  • One redshirt sophomore:  Keith Washington
  • One true sophomore:  Lavert Hill
  • One redshirt freshman, I'd imagine:  David Long
  • Two true freshmen:  Ambry Thomas and Benjamin St-Juste
  1. Brandon Sebastian isn't a "FSU/UCLA/Oklahoma three star."  He's a sub-Minnesota three star.  In terms of the 247 composite percentile grade, Sebastian will be our worst recruit by some distance if he commits.  Look at this offer list:
  • BC
  • UConn
  • Rutgers
  • Syracuse
  • Temple
  • Rhode Island
  • ...Michigan
  1. His tape is... real bad.  Sorry, I said it.  I will admit that he does appear to be blazing fast in terms of straight line speed, and that's a very important attribute for a college football player.  But I don't see how this player's skills are capable of translating to anything other than a dimeback at this level.  That's not nothing, but is that worth a scholarship at this point?

Now, there's tons of information I don't have.  Maybe Sebastian is a legendary effort or workout guy who will inspire the team.  Maybe he's such a high character person Harbaugh wants him around the locker room.  Maybe there's some technique deficiency the coaches have spotted that they feel they can iron out.  But if I had a vote (and I most certainly do not and should not), Sebastian would be a "hard pass" for me.

01/09/2017 - 7:57am He does. But if he tried to

He does. But if he tried to commit tomorrow I do not believe we'd take him (be able to take him might be the better way to put it).

01/08/2017 - 4:28pm Updated after Harris

Updated after Harris reaffirmed to Alabama.

01/08/2017 - 11:59am Respectfully, we're not doing

Respectfully, we're not doing this here.

01/07/2017 - 8:47pm I eagerly invite you to post

I eagerly invite you to post your own corrections/clarifications or individual takes with this list.  You da real Swim Lane OG.

Casual posters - this guy is the king of recruiting information synthesis.  If he posts it, it's worth thinking about.

01/05/2017 - 8:29am Well... that's definitive.

Well... that's definitive.

01/02/2017 - 5:25pm I hate to throw water on this

I hate to throw water on this thread, but there's some vague (but extant!) smoke about Wheatley leaving with Fisch for UCLA.  That... would be a big problem.

01/02/2017 - 5:12pm I'd give this one a hard

I'd give this one a hard pass.  Absolutely not.  As an additional "hell no," recall that Loeffler was the QB coach who was hired instead of Harbaugh back in the twilight of the Carr years.

01/02/2017 - 5:08pm Let's review Roman's

Let's review Roman's sabermetric profile right quick.

Roman coached at the following pro and college stops:

CAROLINA (1995-2001):  Offensive Line Assistant

Can't judge too much just because he wasn't in charge of the offensive line and there were surely other factors at play considering the Panthers were a newly minted expansion team.  So let's ignore this stop.

TEXANS (2002-2005):  TE and QB Coach

Coached under Dom Capers.  Team was pretty terrible throughout his entire tenure.  In 2002, David Carr was ghastly, but TE Billy Miller had a highly capable year with nearly 80 targets and 600 yards receiving (Miller was the highest ranked TE in DYAR that season.  Carr's performance in 2003 improved slightly, but Miller's declined and the Texans alternate, something named Jabari Holloway, actually started the majority of games at TE.  2004 was a much better year for both the team and for the units under Roman's control - Carr had his only decent professional year (~61%/7.6 YPA/16 TD 14 INT), when he was actually roughly a replacement-level NFL player.  The team plummeted into utter garbage for 2005, however, and Capers was fired along with his staff.

RAVENS (2006-2007):  Offensive Line Assistant

As above, there's not much we can read into here.  For what little it's worth, BAL's offensive lines weren't terribly good during either 2006 or 2007.  BAL finished ranked 21 in adjusted line yards in 2006, although they were the second best team under FO's adjusted sack rate that year.  2007 wasn't much better, as the Ravens ranked 27th in adjusted line yards and 22nd in adjusted sack rate.  Yikes.  Overall, not a great stop, which might explain...

Holy Spirit High School (2008):  Head Coach

Welp.

Stanford (2009-2010):  TE and Offensive Tackles Coach

Here's where things get interesting.  Obviously Roman doesn't necessarily get complete credit as he was only a positional coach, but Stanford's offensive output between 09 and 10 might surprise you:

2009

S&P+ - 6th rated overall offense, improving from 31st the year prior.  12th rushing offense, 7th passing offense

FEI - 4th rated overall offense, improving from 31st the year prior.  6th in offensive efficiency (pass and rush together)

2010

S&P+ - 3rd rated overall offense, 30th rushing offense, 2nd passing offense

FEI - 1st rated overall offense, 2nd in offensive efficiency

SAN FRANCISCO (2011-2014):  Offensive Coordinator

Intersected with Jim Harbaugh's tenure, obviously.  Performance was good to great throughout:

2011 - 18th overall offense, improving from 24th the year prior. 13th passing offense, 24th rushing offense in DVOA

2012 - 5th overall offense, 6th passing offense, 3rd rushing offense in DVOA

2013 - 8th overall offense, 4th passing offense, 14th rushing offense in DVOA

2014 - 16th overall offense, 21 passing offense, 8th rushing offense in DVOA

BUFFALO (2015-2016):  Offensive Coordinator

Here, from a strictly statistical standpoint, it was baffling to me that he caught the blame for Buffalo's modest success.  2015 was a tremendous improvement and surprise:

2015 - 9th overall offense, improving from 26th the year prior.  12th passing offense, 2nd rushing offense in DVOA

2016 - 8th overall offense, 4th passing offense, 1st rushing offense (keeping in mind he was fired early in the year)

Overall, I think this is a very strong statistical resume.  I wouldn't be upset if Roman joined as a full-time offensive coordinator.  He'd be my second choice of available coaches after Kevin Wilson, with the full understanding that Harbaugh wouldn't probably rank those two the same.

01/02/2017 - 3:42pm ...Kevin Wilson.
Yeah, I

...Kevin Wilson.

Yeah, I know.  But I don't care.  This would be my dream.

01/01/2017 - 11:31am No Dawson OR Kugler?
Holy

No Dawson OR Kugler?

Holy shit.  I'm trying to trust the system but this seems insane.

12/14/2016 - 11:27am It's "high," but maybe not

It's "high," but maybe not "would commit right now" high.

Based on everything I've read and inferences drawn from the same, I believe that (1) Harris has told Michigan's coaches he is committing to Michigan, (2) Michigan's coaches don't want four running backs, and (3) Michigan is confident that if Samuels leaves, they may be able to replace him with Benjamin. As a result, I think Dillon was the odd man out, but we would have been willing to retain his commitment if he'd have been willing to reaffirm it.

I like Dillon as a prospect, but I consider his skill level significantly behind Harris and Samuels, and a little behind Benjamin's.

12/07/2016 - 5:00pm Proposterously filthy tape.

Proposterously filthy tape.

11/29/2016 - 1:19pm Lock this up - there is no

Lock this up - there is no way whatsoever Colorado, Oklahoma, or Oklahoma State go and we don't.  The resume difference is horrifying (except for CO, but we'd have a head-to-head win).

11/28/2016 - 6:56am What the hell is going on in

What the hell is going on in this post

11/27/2016 - 7:04pm Had a great experience.  Fan

Had a great experience.  Fan unpleasantness was minimal, and the majority were welcoming and wonderful.  Would go back to Columbus again.

11/26/2016 - 8:12am Also interested in this

Also interested in this

11/25/2016 - 3:58pm This owns.

This owns.

11/24/2016 - 2:32pm Welp.

Welp.

11/21/2016 - 12:09pm This is savage, fam.

This is savage, fam.

11/18/2016 - 6:50pm READER QUESTION:  Are we

READER QUESTION:  Are we likely to see a Michigan defense this good again within the next 10 years?  20 years?  50 years?  Ever?

11/14/2016 - 1:28pm Quick WR screen against a

Quick WR screen against a cover 2 defense with Desmond King is... not advisable.

11/14/2016 - 10:41am I hate posting this, but a

I hate posting this, but a reputable poster at the Edge of the Internet has confirmed - but only to the extent that his sources have told him this is true - that Speight's collar bone is broken.

I've been a professional mentally ill Michigan fan and message board scourer for about five years now.  Based on my previous experience panning for nuggets of actual information from across the internet, I regretfully conclude that the weight of the evidence points to this being true at this point.

Hopefully, this can be chalked up either to (1) an echo chamber effect or (2) faulty information delivered to a root source.

10/02/2016 - 2:30pm Rewatch the video.
I

Rewatch the video.

I acknowledge there's a chance that Rushing simply drops the football, but Hornibrook does a great job putting the football in the second-most effective place he could have.  If Rushing doesn't bork the catch that's six and we have a tie game... unless they went for two.

10/02/2016 - 2:28pm ...the Newsome injury,

...the Newsome injury, tho.

Best of luck.  Hope it looked worse than it was.

10/02/2016 - 1:27pm I think Lewis's interception

I think Lewis's interception is the most amazing pick I've ever seen.

BTW - this probably belongs in a snowflake thread, but I want to share it here instead.  Viewing this in the stands, most fans seemed upset that he didn't knock it down.  I don't think attempting to bat the ball was the appropriate play under the circumstances.

Link:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwZwFfsr8YA

It's 4th and 10.  Wisconsin has elected to go for the touchdown instead of the first down, and has told Rushing, positioned in the backfield outside of the split end, to run a fly with Robert Wheelwright (the split end) running a post from the line of scrimmage.  Thomas has either deep thirds or deep halfs coverage, with McCray lined up on Wheelwright.  Lewis has Rushing.

At the play, Rushing slips his route behind Wheelwright's.  McCray plays this like a boss and keeps inside Wheelwright step-for-step - the moment Wheelwright reveals that he's got the post, McCray feels secure because Hornibrook has nowhere to put the football.  Inexplicably, however, Thomas (minus fucking 1) has decided that Wheelwright is the biggest threat on the play and completely sells out on covering that route.  The effect is that Lewis is one on one with Rushing without any safety help whatsoever.  And Lewis knows that because he's playing proper technique - behind and inside his man with eyes upfield - and probably silently cursing Thomas while he stares at his nameplate and his back.

The other thing Lewis sees?  Hornibrook, who never looks off Rushing from the moment Wheelwright breaks on his post and McCray has removed him from the play.  So Lewis now knows that one of three things can happen:  (1) Hornibrook throws a bad pass and the game is over.  (2) Hornibrook throws a catchable ball and he needs to get a PBU or a INT.  (3) Hornibrook throws a catchable ball and Wisconsin scores a TD.

Hornibrook throws the ball, and Lewis watches him do so.  It's not a moonshot arc where only Rushing can catch it, but it's quite literally the next best thing - a fluttery soft pitch/catch where Rushing can grab it in stride.  One slight wrinkle - it's going to Rushing's back shoulder instead of inside.  Rushing will need to adjust to grab it, but if he does it's a touchdown, yo.

Lewis (who, remember, is playing inside and behind his man) knows now that his "choice" isn't really a choice at all - make a play on the ball or lose the game.  But because he's inside and behind his man but the pass is outside and away, slapping away at the football has dire potential consequences - if the ball is popped up in the air, Rushing could very well make a great play on it because it's probably going to shoot up in the air towards the visitor's sideline, which is the very place Rushing has to adjust to catch the ball anyway.  So now the only 'safe place" to bat the ball is inside and upfield... which is precisely where Jourdan is in relation to Rushing.

So Lewis elevates, gets a hand on the ball (!!!), and now needs to catch it and keep it from going behind him (which is to say upfield and towards the sideline).  In the act of doing so, he has cradled it against his hip.  So now the only way to turn this into a PBU is to actively try and "drop" it, which risks either giving Rushing some weirdo bounce shot at making an Immaculate Reception, or risks giving the shitty officials the opportunity to decide that he fumbled.

So just hold on, young man.  Don't worry about the optimally effective choice given the down and distance.  You made an appropriate business decision, considering all involved parties.  In the process, you made one of the greatest interceptions of all time, and you just won the damn game.

10/02/2016 - 12:44pm EVERYONE GO LOOK AT OUR

EVERYONE GO LOOK AT OUR DEFENSIVE S&P RIGHT NOW RIGHT NOW RIGHT NOW

10/02/2016 - 1:21am I thought it was cool when

I thought it was cool when JBB cocked his head back and roared out "DESTINY IS CALLING ME" along with the student section when everyone was singing along to Mr. Brightside near the end of the fourth quarter.

10/01/2016 - 11:07pm Something that's been

Something that's been puzzling me for a while - Magnuson is an average pass blocker and an average run blocker, and he's a little slight.  Why not play him at LT and Bredeson/JBB at RT?  My guess is that it's just plain not gonna happen - we would have heard about Magnuson's versatility if he was capable of winning that job.  But he just seems like his skillset and abilities are ideally suited for that position out of all the remaining options.

09/29/2016 - 2:52pm Our passing down success rate

Our passing down success rate is near-legendary. Just in awe at our defensive efficiency. Defensive explosiveness not as great, however.

09/26/2016 - 2:30pm Well... hope... that goes

Well... hope... that goes better than it has so far.

09/26/2016 - 10:09am Our ability to get home with

Our ability to get home with rushing four will determine this game. SO I FEEL OKAY.

09/26/2016 - 7:24am It doesn't hurt us per se.

It doesn't hurt us per se. What I think it does is remove a strength of the team - when we go nickel with Lewis in the slot and Peppers field side, that was formerly the best secondary in the country by a wide margin. Now we probably don't have a lethal nickel package any longer and instead it will be merely above average.

Where I think this really hurts us is against OSU. Dammit.

09/25/2016 - 12:34am There's still time, but 5.6

There's still time, but 5.6 YPA is... not good.

Again, though - plenty of time to improve.  And the ground game owned today, so there was plenty to cheer for.

09/19/2016 - 10:22pm The D's rushing success rate

The D's rushing success rate is... jaw dropping.  Awe inspiring.  Amazing.

09/18/2016 - 5:19pm So every week I watch this at

So every week I watch this at half speed with my old coaching skipwheel.  Thoughts:

  • The second Colorado TD was a perfect choreographed fade.  Literally the only way to have stopped that would have been to bump in man and disrupt the route.  Coverage was also nearly perfect so I don't mind that play at all.
  • The third Colorado TD was weird.  Can't tell what the outside receiver was doing, but it was a cover 4 buster slot skinny post (not that we were in cover four).  I don't know what Delano Hill was doing immediately post-snap because he's off the screen, but I do know that Peppers provided absolutely no help whatsoever in the drop flat.  I think he was concerned about the two backs but McCray was within his line of sight with a hat on the playside back.  Weird.
  • Newsome wasn't flawless, but his run blocking was very good on more than a handful of plays.  He really does a nice job locking on and then turning his butt to the gap.  He's also good on the move although he still hesistates before making contact.  It looks like he's worried more agile guys will run past him.
  • Khalid Hill is one hell of a fullback.  Very, very good blocker when he makes contact.  Also does a nice job knowing when a block is "complete" and he can move on to the next guy.
  • McCray was able to diagnose several plays from the alignment after the motion.  From a fan's perspective, that's a way to tell he's good at learning from film.  The play where he nearly picked off the screen was a great example - you can see him point to the player who will receive the pass right before the ball is snapped.  If he hadn't broken up the pass, Peppers was ready to make the tackle and prevent even a centimeter of YAC.
  • This game was a great example of why linebacker athleticism shouldn't be underrated.  Butt was simply too fast to be covered once he started his drag route.  We could have thrown to him nearly every play had we wanted to.  And, on that note, I appreciated the adjustment of the coaches to run simple underneath mesh shit over and over again since we couldn't go deep.
09/18/2016 - 4:01pm I like looking at early

I like looking at early season five factor box score metrics as opposed to straight up rankings in the early season because the rankings are still weighted based on the preseason.

Click for link to Google Docs spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10d3mhfSGgfaFvl81fl8RXIKXlPPxTiq…

What's good is that Michigan absolutely dominates its opponents in terms of defensive success rate:

  1. HAW:  29% success rate against U of M.  HAW had a 48% success rate against CAL, a 35% success rate against UT-Martin, and a 39% success rate against ARI.
  2. UCF:  29% success rate against U of M.  UCF had a 39% success rate against SCSt, and a 39% success rate against MARY.
  3. COLO:  27% success rate against U of M.  COLO had a 54% success rate against COSt, and a 50% success rate against IDSt.

What's bad is that our offensive success rate... is really, really average no matter who we play.  It's not, however, that terrible compared to other opponents:

  1. Against HAW:  69% success rate.  HAW held CAL to 50%, UT-Martin to 36%, and ARI to 49%.
  2. Against UCF:  36% success rate.  UCF held SCSt to a 23% success rate, and MARY to 38%.
  3. Against COLO:  38% success rate.  COLO held COSt to a 33% success rate, and IDSt to 20%.

What's surprising is that in terms of success rate, we actually had our best game against Colorado.  Note that we held them to the lowest success rate of any of our three opponents, whereas we had a higher success rate against their defense than we had against UCF's.