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09/18/2017 - 11:54am Found it

I found this:  http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/stats/stats-exp…

Looks like expected points at the 25 are just shy of 1.  Expected points at the 15 are right about 0.  Inside of 15 it starts to go negative.

This doesn't take into account the drive following.  I would venture to guess that if you compared starting field position for the kicking-off team on their drive following the kick-off, that they end up in far better shape with another point or two expected there as well.

In all, I bet a 1st and 10 from the 15 is worth 2 or 3 points more than a 1st and 10 from the 25 to the team who did the kick-off.

 

EDIT:  OK, just read the entire description.  That graph is based on "next points scored" by either team, not just points scored on that offensive series.  So it already takes into account that the next drive is likely to start off better for the kicking team when they pin the receiving team deep.  So, anyway, Fogue's kicking is probably worth 1 point every time he pins them at the 15 vs kicking out the back of the end zone.

09/18/2017 - 9:09am Can MGoBlog Tell me the Point Spread 15 yardline vs 25

I would love to know the expected point value on a 1st and 10 at your own 15 vs 1st and 10 at your own 25.  I love these kickoffs that go into low earth orbit and then come down at the 1.

Plus, turnovers that deep are nearly 100% chance of points for the team getting the turnover.  And a 3 and out from that deep is probably about 80% chance of points for the other team when they catch the punt around mid field.  I don't think that figures into the expected point math, but shoud somehow be included.

 

 

09/03/2017 - 4:36pm Kickoff Advantage, James Foug under appreciated

No one seems to have noticed that Foug's kickoffs were soaring hang-time galour beauties that landed right at the goal line.  And Yes, I had o scrounge to find the poor kids name!  End result is a number of perhaps unavoidable runbacks that ended well for Michigan.  8 kickoffs total:

4 touchbacks and 1 touchback eq (ran out to 26) (and if memory serves me, the 26 yarder coulda/shoulda been tackled deaper)

2 run backs to the 15.

1 run back that was fumbled and turned over at the 15

Nothing like having the best defense in the country get the chance to start creating havock at their15!  Or, better yet, our OK offense starting at their 15.  Touchbacks are safe and secure, but we picked up 20 yards and 3 points as a direct result of these kickoffs and suffered no downside.

08/30/2017 - 10:40pm 31-10

31-10 michigan

12/22/2016 - 10:51pm I read his comittement letter

Just read his letter of comittment.  It is worth reading.  Looks like a top notch guy on and off the field.  Compared to some yahoo who shows up wearing an elf outfit and pulls a dog out of his shirt and says virtually nothing, the difference is striking.  OK, maybe I'm a little bitter about that, but still.

10/31/2016 - 12:09pm Anyone know how clock works

Anyone know how clock works for onside kick recovered by kicking team?  Rules I know

1) Clock doesn't run on kickoff until someone touches the ball

2) Never runs on touchback catch or kick out of the end zone.

3) Never runs on kick out of bounds

?? What if ball only touched by kicking team and recovered?  I think the clock runs immediately when kicking team first touches ball and does not stop but rather is placed with clock running for the next play, unless someone calls a time out.  With only a couple seconds left in the game and no time outs, it would appear that short of UM committing a penalty that stops/gives them a non-timed down, the clock, even had Sparty succeeded in the onside kick, the game would have been over.

Which leads to a strategy here which says, let them get the onside kick when there are only 2 seconds left.  Just get the heck out of the way so you can't commit any penalties and you wouldn't have to run another play.

10/31/2016 - 11:47am I like that idea.  Just so

I like that idea.  Just so long as Shane keeps his head on straight and doesn't drop in a beautiful interception.

10/31/2016 - 10:40am Agree with Point 1.
Shane

Agree with Point 1.

Shane Morris hand-off then he lead blocks doesn't seem to go well, even though Shane throws a pretty descent block.  It would appear that defenses know that play.  And the Peppers goal line thing is quite effective, but I suspect without some twists to it, the D's are going to stop it.  Is it me, or does that play seem to always go right?  Maybe that is so JP can throw from it since rolling left would be a tricky throw for a right handed non-QB kind of guy.  Maybe it is the threat of the pass (that never happens) that makes that play work and rolling left would mean the D can commit to the run.

10/29/2016 - 4:44pm Actually I think they can,

Actually I think they can, but it requires muffing the catch/fumbling the ball in the endzone and the other team falls on it.  Not sure it has ever happened.

10/26/2016 - 4:11pm I've gotten to the point

I've gotten to the point where any play for more than 2 yards against this defense feels like an utter failure.  I expect 3 and outs every time and only consider it one of their better defensive series when it nets negative yards.  It is going to be tough watching them play against a really good offense since I know this isn't realstic.  I'll have this gut feeling that we are getting beaten when/if the other team gets a couple first downs.  I'll have to reset my mindset on what it means to succeed at D.

10/26/2016 - 1:26pm Lets use a fullback on punt blocking and of course fake punts

Instead of a linebacker in that behind the LOS blocking position on punts, what about a fullback like Poggi or Hill?  Both are well versed in  blocking behind the line of scrimmage and doing the catch and run thing.  It isn't like either of them are in on so many offensive snaps that doing the special teams thing would stress them and it would open up a legit threat to fake every single time.

10/24/2016 - 8:57pm It seems to me that

It seems to me that challenging a spot where the corrected spot is 1) in excess of 1 yard different 2) changes possession 3) changes a first down ruling 4) changes the score would not be frivolous.

10/05/2016 - 10:02am Train Loop Should be for Real

I think they should do they train line-up like in the loop gif. Go back and forth 2 or 3 times as the clock permits.

09/15/2016 - 10:01am 42-9 UM wins

go blue

09/07/2016 - 6:49pm 56-7 mi

56-7

08/31/2016 - 9:38pm 41-0 Meeechigan

41-0 Meeechigan

08/31/2016 - 9:37pm 41-0

41-0

08/23/2016 - 9:37am This is a fake

I bet his mother did it.

07/28/2016 - 5:33pm Multiball

I love it.  Sounds like a Will Ferrell movie or maybe the Southpark guys could do a follow-up to BASEketball.

Seriously, though, I think the soccer guys should consider it.

02/17/2016 - 8:42am So it Wasn't a Technical Problem, They actually planned this?

Holy smokes.  I didn't get home till half time and figured they had already explained how they were forced to broadcast from ankle level after the normal camera up in the stands let out the magic smoke just before tip off.  Guess not.  After 10 minutes of UM playing like crap (I knew this only because the score at the bottom of the screen told me) I gave up and shut it off. 

02/08/2016 - 1:20pm Thank you for finally getting that damn BB score off the top

I know it is sort of a slow time, but man it was paining me to see that damn BB score every time I checked in. 

01/22/2016 - 5:42pm It's not title 9

In the old days, you didn't recruit guys to play for you as much as you recruited guys to NOT play against you.  It was as much a defensive move as an offensive move.  Those poor kids never had a chance, the big name schools would recruit them just to deplete the available talent pool for everyone else.

11/21/2015 - 10:16pm That's Great

Had to quote you in emails to my favorite OSU friends.  Good stuff.

11/21/2015 - 8:54pm So What Bowl Now?

So now that OSU played a hapless game against MSU and lost by a score that was way closer than the game actually was, what happens to us after we beat OSU next week?  I'm just assuming that MSU beats PSU at home, though who knows.  Do we have any shot at a BCS game at all?  I'm thinking if Iowa wins out, they get a top 4 slot and if MSU wins out, there is a pretty good chance they  get a top 4 slot.  So the Rose Bowl is open.  Who goes then?  Any other BCS games on the table?

11/16/2015 - 3:55pm Great Game for Rudock

So it is hard to find much fault with Rudock last week.  I did watch him throw two screens to guys 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage when they clearly hadn't a snow balls chance in hell of even getting back to the line of scrimmage.  It would be nice to see him maybe toss those out of bounds.  I guess the likes of Peppers and Chesson could maybe be a miracle snowball, but when three guys are zeroing in on you without a blocker in sight . . . .I'm thinking out of bounds.

11/16/2015 - 3:51pm Here is the reporter's wet dream answer

  "Oh, yes thanks so much for asking.  You are such an estutue reporter  that I would like to give you the scoop.  The Colts and I have been in lengthy talks and I have accepted an offer to be their head coach.  OK, no more question, I'm going golfing."

11/15/2015 - 2:25pm Crazy like a fox

Harbaugh sure had the figured out. 

11/15/2015 - 2:22pm Well Said

I'm with you on that.  Rooting against MSU is still none the less enjoyable.

11/15/2015 - 11:03am T-Rex Arms

After a season of very satisfying solid tackling, I felt like our D was playing with T-rex arms.  Elliot is going to have a field day if we tackle like that in 2 weeks.  And just to be clear, I will be rooting AGAINST MSU next week, not for OSU. 

10/31/2015 - 11:08pm Count me in

I was shocked that they woudn't take overtime.  Their kicker was looking great and we were playing a Sophomore QB who before today hadn't completed a pass to anyone.  And if memory serves me one or two of those 0 and 4 passes before today were damn near picked off.

10/19/2015 - 1:58pm In the NFL and College

In College Rule 3 Article 3.  College rules are simpler than NFL rules here and it would appear to have allowed UM to do what I suggested.

It states that the half may be extended fo an untimed down if a penalty is accepted (offense or defense).  Since holding does not involve loss of down, that means 4th down all over.  Now you just neal.

 

 

I found in the NFL rule book RULE 4, SECTION 8, ARTICLE 2  

 

In the case of a personal foul on 4th down at the end of the half, where the offense fails to make the line to gain, the defense may elect to accept an untimed down (I assume that means where they take the result of the down rather than the penalty/replay down. .. it is not clear). 

It also lists "a palpably unfair act".  This of course is remarkably vague.  Again, it doesn't say if you can accept the result of the down or if you must replay the down to get the untimed down. 

I would expect that you would have to take the holding to quite the extreme to be tagged with a personal foul or palpably unfair act penalty.

 

Finally, to the best of my knowledge, time is never put back on the clock unless there is an error made by the time keeper.  So, I believe, the only way the half would be extended in a penalty situation such is this is for an untimed down.  And of course if UM was doing the snapping for that down, they would neal.

 

10/18/2015 - 11:14pm why

why wouldn't it work?  Just watching the colts/patriots and I timed 5 consecutvie plays from snap to down player.  They took about 6 seconds with none of them being anything special (short runs and passes).  You only need to buy 4 extra seconds.  A 60 yard rainbow will have a good 4 second hang time, but lets say you don't throw the ball till 2 seconds.  Hang out in the pocket for 8 seconds.  An offensive line, tailbacks, everybody holding can certainly protect the QB 8 seconds.  I'm really more interested in knowing if there are any rules that would sabotage this.

10/18/2015 - 10:02pm How to Kill 10 seconds

So, I've been thinking.  It is hard to kill 10 seconds on a 4th down play unless you make it.  But, let's say you told your entire offensive team to hold like crazy, tackle, etc.  Now the QB has insane proctection and hangs out in the pocket for 6 seconds, then chucks the ball as high and long as he can just out of bounds to eat up 4 more seconds.  Clock is now 00:00.  Of course you get flagged.  If they decline, game over.  So they take the penalty.  But that means you replay 4th down with no time on the clock.  So do you have to snap it?  And, even if you do, you just neal.  Is there any rule on the books that would put time back on the clock?  Or does an offensive penalty on 4th down at the end of the game count as though it were the defense on the field, and the ball goes over on downs and they get one last play?

10/17/2015 - 8:30pm Deep Breath, In through the nose out through the mouth.

Repeat

10/17/2015 - 8:26pm It's not all on the punter

Yup, O'Neil fumbed the snap, we lost the game, direct line, cause and effect.  The slightly less direct line, but I think a more important one, the one that is the difference between 7-0 and 5-2, is Rudock.  We have a QB who isn't even average and it's hard to win with that.  You only get so many wide open throws for touchdowns in a game and Rudock misses them all, always.  Not to mention the rest of what he doesn't do that well.  Damn, if we could just have an OK QB in there.  How can it be that noone we recruited is any good?

Had we won, it would have been one of those wins that you just sort of see the "W", plug your ears and say "lalalalalala".  It wasn't going to feel like a great "W", but wow does this "L" feel like a punch in the nuts.

04/22/2014 - 5:28pm Unions Will Be the End

Anyone who says that the schools are making billions all because of the athletes is sadly mistaken.  Try a thought experiment.  What if college football went away, versus what if the players were just college version of high school players.

What if college football didn't exist?  What we would have then would be minor league football.  Players would play for Toledo, or some other podunk market.,  They would get a couple thousand people showing up to most games.  They would never be on TV.  Their names would never be in anything but the highly acclaimed Toledo Blade (or similar).  They would get paid a salary that would probably be less than what there college education is worth and just cover living expenses in Toledo.  They would not get much in the way of health care and they would probably play 20 games or more per year.  It is clear, replacing the university with a minor league professional version would be just pathetic (relatively speaking).

Now imagine if college football players were like HS players, recruited from within the school and out there for the love of the game.  The talent would be lower for sure, but it would be across the board lower on all teams.  The games would still be good because there would be parity.  The excitement would still be there because it is the product of rivalry and the sense of belonging that comes with your alma mater.  The fans are there because of a loyalty to the school  They certainly are not there because of loyalty to some 19-year-old kid.  Those kids are all replaceable, and in fact they do get replaced every few years.  College football is a personal experience for the audience because of the sense of fan ownership that is completely a product of the university, not the players.  You follow a school mostly because you or someone close to you was an alumni.  If the players were replaced, even with much lower talent, the game would be largely unchanged.  

Colleges have done an amazing thing turning a bunch of non-professional level athletes into a tremendously successful product.  How many schools out there have even 10% of their players make the pros?  These guys are for the most part getting far more than they would in any other system.  Unions are going to benefit a very small number of people (mostly not the athletes) and overall hurt the athletes by destroying the entire scholarship system.

03/31/2014 - 9:43am Not necessarily.  It is a

Not necessarily.  It is a simple matter of stats.  What percentage of the time does a possession result in 2 or more points.  If it is higher than 50%, you should do it.  UM scores more than 1.15 points per possession on average for the season.  If there were no such thing as a 3 pointer and no such thing as getting fouled and only scoring 1 point on a possession, then a 1.15 ppp would mean you score on more than 50%.  Since UM gets a lot of their points from 3's and rarely misses free throws, they probably score a deuce or better less than 50%, but probably not much.  I don't have that stat available to me.

You also have to look at what the odds of the other team scoring per possession.  If it is higher than 50% you should also foul, since odds are that they will score and if you leave it to them, then they will score on their time, not yours, leaving you with no time . . . which is what happened.

03/28/2014 - 8:30am To your point, there have

To your point, there have been plenty of guys who simply showed up to an NFL team's open tryouts and made the cut, or got drafted out of the cfl or semi-pro leagues.  Guys who never saw the inside of a college locker room.  The nfl states you have to be 3 years out of HS to qualify, which I don't quite understand.  It would make more sense if they had a minimum age.  You can understand the argument of not being physically developed enough until you are 21 or so, but being 3 years out of high school doesn't exactly correspond to an age or level of phsycial development.

03/27/2014 - 9:58pm Wrong

"To be an employee you have to be involved in economic activity, and most NCAA schools are spending, not making money"

Wrong!  That would be like saying Amazon is not engaged in economic activity.  In case you didn't know this, Amazon has never turned a profit, but guess what, that doesn't matter as far as labor law is concerned.  If you sell your product, even at a loss, you are engaged in economic activity.  So any school that sells tickets at any price, sells game advertising at any price, or in any way sells anything that is tied to those guys playing ball on the field, then your school is affected.

 

Hell, for that matter you could apply this to any amatuer event where tickets are sold.  I see no reason why this wouldn't apply just the same to high school ball.  Even your high school musical if they sell tickets.

03/27/2014 - 8:00pm Do you really think this is

Do you really think this is about health insurance?  If so, I've got a bridge to sell you.  Sure, this is the line now, but the union bosses don't give a rats fat ass about health insurance.  They want a cut of something, and health insurance isn't it.  

03/04/2014 - 9:49pm I was a sophomore . . . .AT UM

But there is still work to be done.

02/20/2014 - 9:29pm Is it wrong that I had no

Is it wrong that I had no idea what the heck 7na was?  Thanks for spelling it out so I could google it.  Got it, bummmmmmm bum bum bum bummmmm . . . bum.  OK, that is 7na.  So, I think that this is the most generic, trite, contrived, and pathetic thing to play at any point during a football game.  Hats off to the first guy who thought it was a great motivator song because at that time it was, until everyone else ruined it by playing it until our brains metled into a bummm bum bum bum mess.  It really would be cool if it were actually our thing, but it is not.

When I was a student ('91), we went from bringing in cases of beer openly to damn near getting kicked out of UM for a little booze on the breath.  The student section was full and we had fun.  

It isn't rocket science.

 Have fun at game = go to game.

Not having fun = not going to game

People not going game = not having fun at game 

7na = not that much fun

beer and throwing marshmellows = more fun than 7na and sober non-throwing marshmellows.

 

11/17/2013 - 11:40am Field Goal

I think we need to kick all of our field goals that way.  It was high, straight, long, and down the middle.  Gibbons typically only gets 3 out of 4 of those precious qualities.  I do think we got a bit lucky with not getting an illegal procedure.  It looked to me like the right guard wasn't set.

11/17/2013 - 11:38am It was all part of the plan

The plan, of course, was to NOT score on that 4th and 2.  You see, by not scoring and leaving NW with the lead, UM tricks NW into playing prevent, which of course, as we all know, only prevents you from winning.  NW falls for the diabolic plan and UM gets the ball last, marches down the field with no time outs and only 2 minutes to play.  Just for fun, they run it out to 4th down a couple times and make a 44 yard field goal with only only 8 seconds to get the kicking squad on the field.  Genious that Borges, I say, Genious!  I can see him up in the booth twiddling his fingers together and lauging Waaaaaaahahaha Waaaahahahaha as his plan falls perfectly into place.

10/29/2012 - 12:39pm Robinson Injury

Speaking as a physician and surgeon, it would appear that denard came down on his ulnar nerve.  In other words, he hit his funny bone.  It is quite clear from the video that his elbow hits the turf first on the insdie edge where the ulnar nerve runs in a very exposed location.  Next you see him grab the pinky side of his hand as his face goes into an ugly expression of pain.  

If the nerve is lightly struck, you get that funny bone tingling, but if the nerve is pinched hard between the bone and something else (the field), it produces excrutiating pain that can last for days or longer.  It feels like the little finger and half of the ring finger are being torched.  In addition to the pain, you lose the sense of touch on those same fingers.  In other words, the only sensation that comes from there is burning pain.  There is no weakness from this because the nerve is not used for the muscles.  But the numbness cause issues with your grip as you might imagine.  You can also experience hyperesthesia, which means that touching the fingers hurts, like anyone who has had shingles can tell you about.  None of this is good news for the throwing hand of a quarterback.

It also seems as though this is at least the scond time he has done this in a game this season.  I wonder if it has happened in practice as well.  The more times you do this, the more sensitive the nerve becomes.  After repeated trauma, it takes less and less of a pinch on the nerve to cause the same symptoms.

The elbow can certainly be padded and I hope they do this.  Since it would seem that this is a recurrent problem, I would think that Denard may consider a surgery which moves the nerve into a less vulnerable spot.  Certainly this would not happen until after the season.