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Recent Comments

Date Title Body
09/29/2011 - 12:31am Call or stop by peter b's on Friday

Watched most of M-ND at this place, it's in the Portola Hotel, close to most of the coastal Monterey stuff. 15 screens, DirecTV, good beer, good food, but they don't open until 11 on Saturday.... If you're in the area on Friday would call or stop by, I'm sure they can point you in the right direction.

http://www.portolahotel.com/dining/peterb.php

09/25/2011 - 11:44pm Thank you sir

A scholar and no doubt a gentleman

 

"I love to win. Love it. Football is just too hard and too tough if you’re not successful. This isn’t just recreation, and the sport isn’t for everybody. I just don’t want to expend all this time and effort and come up short.” -Bo Schembechler

09/25/2011 - 9:39pm Resumes in Question:

Boise State:

Convincing wins

at Georgia

at Toledo

vs. Tulsa (who has also played Okla. & OKSt)

 

Wisconsin:

Convincing wins

vs UNLV (beaten similarly by Washington St.)

vs Oregon State (losers to FCS Sacramento St.)

vs Northern Illinois (Lost to Kansas)

vs. South Dakota (FCS) 

 

Nebraska:

Convincing wins

vs. Chattanooga (FCS)

vs. Washington (let them get a little close towards the end)

at Wyoming

Won:

vs. Fresno St.

09/25/2011 - 7:39pm Don't disagree

No doubt Wisconsin has a much harder schedule over the year, I have the (perhaps mistaken) impression that Brian is looking at results to date when assembling his ballot.  If Nebraska's OOC schedule is the reason to move them ahead of BSU, how does that thinking translate to Wisconsin's perpetually putrid OOC games?

09/25/2011 - 7:35pm Plz to reconcile thinking regarding Boise State

Disclaimer - Boise State fan to some degree (order of magnitude smaller than M fandom though)

 

"Wisconsin needs to man up, stop drinking the wrong beer made from rice by Europeans, and schedule an actual nonconference game this century."

vis a vis this:

"Sorry, but other teams are playing other teams and beating other teams instead of not doing so."

You already examined Nebraska in this way, now subject Wisconsin to the same scrutiny...  Note that while Toledo is 1-3 having seen parts of their three losses, would imagine they would be favored against anyone Wisconsin has played so far.  And interestingly, Tulsa is already a common opponent for Boise State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State.

 

Edit- I'm failing at blockquoting, someone get the damn kids off my lawn...

05/05/2011 - 2:35pm Can there possibly be a

Can there possibly be a better face for Michigan?  

03/09/2011 - 10:27am Also, lying is bad.

If the reporting is to believed, Tressel represented to NCAA investigators in December that he had no previous knowledge of the violations.  What happened to the one guy in the Michigan investigation who lied to NCAA investigators?  Hmmm...

 

 

11/11/2010 - 9:11pm Denard's 2nd interception

Right after the INT thrown over Webb, Denard made a face and a few hand movements that perhaps suggested he and Webb were not on the same page - is there any reason to believe that was the case?

And FWIW, I score his first 1st INT as one of those things - one of those things that puts a bad defense in a bad position...

11/09/2010 - 2:14am A few numbers to chew on

Michigan red zone scoring through Illinois game: TD 76%, FG 9.5%
CFB current median red zone TD % is 60% (Clemson), median FG % is 21% (Cal)

More here: http://www.cfbstats.com/2010/team/418/redzone/offense/split.html

11/09/2010 - 1:49am That's about it.

I guess I would put it as- because Michigan is terrible at FGs, a less likely than normal outcome is kicking a FG, then losing on an Illinois TD. How to probabilize that, I have no idea...

Edit again: the three possible outcomes on offense are: fail to score, kick FG, score TD. If you are less likely to kick a FG (because you are less likely to attempt the FG, because you are not good at FG kicking), then there is a higher probability of both not scoring at all, and scoring a TD. The balance between the two is compared to the chance of scoring (or not scoring and losing) by attempting the 2pt conversion in the 2nd OT. It's how to assign the numbers that is hard.

11/09/2010 - 12:55am Qualitative vs. Quantitative

Another consideration for your modeling is the probability of attempting (not making, although they should be related) an FG. Part of the inherent disadvantage of going first in OT is the uncertainty around when/if to attempt a FG. Given michigan's well documented FG problems, the probability of trying a FG has to be lower, which in turn affects the 52.5% number. If Michigan is selling out for the TD (few/no circumstances under which a FG is attempted) making the probability to beat the same as the probability of scoring a TD from 1st and 10 at the 25 (presumably a higher number for this instance).

Edit:

Put more simply, if you feel you have to score a touchdown because you can't kick field goals, what is the probability of scoring on 1st and 10 from the 25 vs. 4th and goal from the three?

/edit

That all said, I was pulling for the 2pt try in the 2nd OT too, but that was the stress talking... The strategy to force Illinois to execute every step of the way finally paid off in the end. BTW, if you were at the game, you probably didn't get a chance to see Rich on the sideline right before the Redacti 2 pt attempt - on TV he very clearly said 'One play' with a look on his face that made it obvious he was hoping for a break...

11/06/2010 - 10:33pm Agree

Given the -4 turnover margin and suboptimal special teams play, holding the Zookarati to 45 in regulation is actually a significant upgrade from the PSU debacle. Avg. starting field position is part of the story.

11/06/2010 - 9:40pm Awesome

Great stuff. Also consider passing off more of your own opinion as information attributed to anonymous sources.

11/06/2010 - 9:08pm No question about it...

Watching on the left coast with a DVR, but didn't need the DVR to see the false start. Right guard was the worst offender, but not the only one. Almost seemed like the center snapped the ball late. That said, there were a number of questionable calls that went against the Redacti, so they were probably due a break. Michigan has certainly had their share of phantom calls against this year, obviously. A little karma is ok with me...

10/03/2010 - 10:37am What was the mean yards to go?

Might be interesting to see that as well.

09/11/2010 - 11:35am Was about to write the same

Was about to write the same thing. I guess he's half right (the ND part), would have been good for Desmond to remind him about the recent past...

07/19/2010 - 9:12am Always consider the source...

I think Brian made the point first, but it's worth remembering the words of BHGP when CFN comes up:

"This puts Dienhart in a different league than, say, CollegeFootballNews.com, who just plain never know what the fuck they're talking about. CFN is to actual analysis what ramming two GI Joes together is to MMA. It's only the same to 7-year-olds."

http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2009/4/9/828394/no-kirk-ferentz-is-n…

07/06/2010 - 9:13pm So many reasons to hate Steinbrenner...

So easy to remember the disappointment when Henson left - the Brighton kid lured away by the OSU alum...

His 2000 stats are more impressive when factoring in no time played vs. Bowling Green and Rice

http://stats.ath.umich.edu/football/cmaster.php?pkey=32

And even though he had his worst games statistically against Penn State and OSU, they were both wins:

http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-footbl/archive/schedule-2000-archive.ht…

I suppose the loss to Northwestern is the only dark spot.  Great athlete.  Great QB.

edit: to be clear, the NW loss can hardly be attributed to Henson's play, the comment is purely results based.  In many ways that 2000 game now holds out hope for the RR era...

07/05/2010 - 11:21pm Red Dawn?

Does Red Dawn count? I'm not sure it's top 5 either way, but a memorable flick. To make it topical, I believe I read something about a remake that is being shot at least in part in Michigan. Probably read this on mgoblog...

07/05/2010 - 12:59pm Start looking at CA

Having lived in the DC area, the midwest, the intermountain west, and now on the west coast, consider waiting for the economic conditions in California to bottom out.  Most occupations in NYC have opportunities in both northern and southern CA, and for doing things outdoors tough to beat the climate.  I've been impressed that many of the people I've gotten to know work in places that value good work/life balance - why live in a great place to be outdoors if you never see it?  Good luck.