Member for

6 years 10 months
Points
9392.00

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
01/18/2019 - 9:22pm Because it's unreasonable to…

Because it's unreasonable to expect perfection.  Nobody's had a perfect basketball season in 40 years.  I'd just as soon the teams closest to Michigan fail in order to make the (nearly) inevitable misstep less costly.

01/18/2019 - 8:41pm I agree.  I mean, I never…

I agree.  I mean, I never root for OSU in anything, but Michigan would have benefitted more from a Maryland loss here.

Don't be Staee.

01/18/2019 - 8:40pm In the initial NET rankings…

In the initial NET rankings.  They... weren't good.

01/18/2019 - 10:00am Yeah, I've really been…

Yeah, I've really been hoping that I was missing some character he played named "Mr. Ray."  Otherwise, very much not cool.

01/15/2019 - 5:46pm Actually, you, yourself,…

Actually, you, yourself, gave the answer to why this isn't done in college -- it didn't work against the most-skilled opponent on your schedule.  The talent gap narrows as you go up the ladder.  College offenses tear up the zone, relatively speaking, because they're better than high school offenses.

You should read the article, if you haven't already.  KenPom has been one of the leaders of college basketball analytics, which is basically nothing but challenging conventional wisdom.  Sometimes, conventional wisdom is wrong -- but sometimes it's right.  In this case, the numbers make the case that man is probably more effective in the modern college game than zone, because man is better at preventing three-point shots from being attempted.

The article does point out one thing for which there's no control: some teams (e.g., Syracuse) play zone because they want to, and others do so because they have no choice -- the coach doesn't feel his players are athletic enough to play man.  You can't go back and figure out Syracuse's winning percentage if they were to play man.

01/15/2019 - 5:01pm You need to focus on the raw…

You need to focus on the raw values rather than the ranks. Michigan's raw BPI is 14.3, vs Wisconsin's 12.7. That means Michigan is 1.6 points better, which is less than the home court advantage.

KenPom, on the other hand, has Michigan at +26.89 and Wisconsin at +20.77.  Those are both per 100 possessions (I'm not sure what the BPI scale is; I'm thinking per game).  Scale to the 62 possession game that KenPom projects, and Michigan is about 3.8 points better.  Home court is worth about three points, so Michigan is about a one-point favorite in that system.

Anyone who remembers the Northwestern game will refrain from making fun of the BPI.

01/15/2019 - 4:53pm 30-4 is not bearish.  The…

30-4 is not bearish.  The Big Ten is really, really good this year.  KenPom would be something like 28-6 ish (MSU is ahead of Michigan in KenPom right now).

I'm not saying 30-4 is unattainable.  I just think it's slightly optimistic.

If they get to 22-0 (wins @Wisconsin, vs. Minnesota, @Indiana, vs. OSU, @Iowa), 30-4 would start to look bearish.  KenPom has Michigan 3.4-1.6 through the next five games; put another way, a 14% chance to get to 22-0.

I think the most likely records are somewhere between 28-6 and 30-4.  At this point, 7 losses would be a little disappointing.  If they can win four out of the next five, I'd look toward the upper end of that range.

01/15/2019 - 4:45pm I don't think I've ever…

I don't think I've ever heard anyone do that.

Now, don't get me wrong -- if someone plays the song, you can count on everyone within earshot to clap four times at the appropriate spot.  And, they play it during the 7th inning stretch at Astros games (hey, Houston, look at a map!).  I don't know that I've ever noticed it at a UT game, but I've only been to a couple.  It's nothing at all like O-H, which is like "hello" to an OSU fan.

Quick poll, though -- which is more irritating?  O-H or We-Are?  I go back and forth...

01/15/2019 - 10:49am Well, before their first…

Well, before their first real away game at Northwestern, they had a fake away game at Villanova.  I seem to remember that went pretty well. ;)

KenPom has Saturday's game basically a coin flip.  Wisconsin has a very KenPom-friendly résumé, though; they've stomped bad teams and lost close games to good teams.  They do have a set of good wins -- vs. Oklahoma on a neutral court, vs. NC State, and at Iowa.  However, they've been absolutely brutal since their surprising loss at Western Kentucky -- they've lost four out of five.  Last night's game was a mess: they were down 33-15 at halftime -- neither team scored for the last four minutes of the first half -- and then they went through a stretch where they seemingly couldn't miss (32 points in 18 possessions) to take the lead, 60-59!  And then they decided they'd scored enough and lost 64-60.

If Michigan can shut down two of Nate Reuvers, Brad Davison, and D'Mitrick Trice, I like their chances.  Let Happ get his points -- preferably, inefficiently -- and try to shut down the outside game.  All three of those guys shoot 38% or better on 3s with a large number of attempts.  But that's easier said than done, particularly in Madison.  Michigan just hasn't played well there.  They're 26-34 since 1950 (2-13 since 2000).

01/14/2019 - 5:01pm 85 is actually disastrous --…

85 is actually disastrous -- for comparison's sake, that's a little worse than what Michigan has been doing to opponents.  You may notice that Michigan's opponents are, uh, 0-17 on the year.

Winston is an excellent offensive player; he had a bad game.

01/11/2019 - 2:16pm Not in an absolute sense …

Not in an absolute sense (see above).  It's just that other teams are doing better whereas Michigan has performed more-or-less to the (high) expectations set up by the early-season victories.

01/11/2019 - 2:14pm Two reasons:

1 - The result…

Two reasons:

1 - The result of a game is a single data point and isn't necessarily predictive.  In fact, it isn't even necessarily reflective of the game -- you've certainly seen games where the better team lost.

2 - I like to try to understand things at a less superficial level.

To suggest that the team is flawless because they're 16-0 is to demonstrate naïvety bordering on cluelessness.

01/11/2019 - 1:32pm Par for the course.  Some…

Par for the course.  Some posters are one-trick ponies.

01/11/2019 - 12:39pm It's not -- or, at least,…

It's not -- or, at least, not by much.

Today: +26.28, #7
1/1: +25.27, #4
12/15: +26.24, #4
12/1: +25.14, #6

The answer is that other teams have exceeded their ratings by more than Michigan has recently.

01/11/2019 - 12:05pm This is perfectly reasonable…

This is perfectly reasonable.

It is also true that whenever the nearly-inevitable loss occurs, a certain set of posters will be absolutely up in arms about how terrible the team is.

01/11/2019 - 12:02pm This is sad beyond words.

This is sad beyond words.

Michigan should never be scheduling opponents that have no chance to win.  I don't care about the playoff.  I care about entertaining football and teaching something beyond "game the system and find the path of least resistance" to the players.

To everyone who says that Michigan would have fared better if they hadn't played ND -- you have no idea what you're talking about.  It's possible they would still have won every game.  It's also possible that they would have dropped a couple, because Ed Warinner wouldn't have been able to point to the ND game and say "we need to fix this."

Cupcakes make you soft.

01/10/2019 - 1:17am Michigan was two hundredths…

Michigan was two hundredths of a point per 100 possessions ahead of UNC before the day began. UNC is now one hundredth of a point ahead.  Their opponents had a slightly better day than Michigan’s did. I highly doubt it was connected to this game in particular.

01/09/2019 - 10:21pm Yeah, well, I assume their…

Yeah, well, I assume their pact with Satan covers jinxes too. I daresay Michigan lacks such immunity. :)

01/09/2019 - 9:27pm The hell, man?  Are you…

The hell, man?  Are you trying to jinx Michigan?

01/09/2019 - 9:26pm Username checks out.

The…

Username checks out.

The only problem with the charge rule is that it's not called enough.  Offensive players have way too much of an advantage in basketball.

This is basically the equivalent of somebody named basketballguy saying that they hate the illegal man downfield rule.

01/09/2019 - 11:00am This is a bad take.

This is a bad take.

Michigan's non-conference schedule is not good this year.  People who think otherwise are looking only at the top end of it -- @Villanova and vs. UNC is a great start to any schedule.  Providence on a neutral court is a good game; a home game vs. USC (NTUSC) is fine.

But the rest of the schedule is bad.  It's not as bad as it has been in the past, but it's bad.  Michigan played the #290, #152, #242 (neutral court), #289, #211, #282, and #311 teams in KenPom.  That's 7 of 11 games, only one of which (#152 Holy Cross) is respectable.  (I'll give you #211 Western Michigan if you squint).

MSU has games vs #10, #253, #158, #326, #74, #29, #37, #23, #196, #228, and #124.  In other words, they have 8 games against teams in the top 200, as opposed to Michigan's 5.

Yes, MSU lost two of those games -- but winning and losing isn't included in the strength of schedule metrics.

Last year's Nebraska team is not an indication of bias.  They were deservingly left out of the tournament.  In KemPom A games, they went 1-8 (just the home victory vs. Michigan).  In KenPom B games, they were 5-2.

Compare that to Michigan's 8-5 and 5-2, respectively, or MSU's 5-4 and 11-0.  And, keep in mind, Michigan was a bubble team last year before they started their end-of-season winning streak.  6 of those 8 KenPom A wins were in February or March.

BTW, these metrics are not based on the rank of the teams involved, but rather their underlying characteristics.  If there's really not much of a difference between #200 and #300, then there won't be much of a difference in the calculated SOS either.

01/07/2019 - 6:12pm Ah, the joke that wasn’t…

Ah, the joke that wasn’t supposed to be funny.

Congratulations; you have reached full internet.

01/07/2019 - 4:00pm Not funny.

Not funny.

01/07/2019 - 1:12pm Yes. ‘85-86 and ‘12-13.

Yes. ‘85-86 and ‘12-13.

01/07/2019 - 12:10pm So can a team who’s not…

So can a team who’s not eligible for their postseason tournament for other reasons — currently transitioning to D-I, new in the conference, or finished too low in the standings to qualify.

A D-I independent could also win its last game, but there haven’t been any for the past couple of seasons.

01/06/2019 - 10:29pm Thank goodness you’re here…

Thank goodness you’re here. Somebody finally needs to teach basketball to the guy who’s been a head coach for 45 years and has won more games than any other coach in Michigan history.

You might also mention this to the other coaches who watch Beilein teams so that they can try to learn his offense and pass it on to their teams.

Finally, you should probably relay this to the legions of opposing teams who have failed utterly to stop Michigan offenses. Just go tell them that they don’t know how to play a good man defense. Please start with Izzo, because (a) he’d probably believe the rest of the crap you’re shoveling, and (b) he may stuff you in a locker when you get to that point.

01/06/2019 - 7:33pm I hope this is the year he…

I hope this is the year he wins his first national championship. FTFY. ;)

01/06/2019 - 7:17pm 34-5 over the last 365 days,…

34-5 over the last 365 days, with a chance to make it 35-4 with a win at Illinois.  Not bad. :)

01/06/2019 - 7:14pm He’ll get PT in the game…

He’ll get PT in the game when he earns it in practice.  To “throw him a bone” is to send the wrong message to the rest of the team. If he decides to transfer because things aren’t handed to him on a platter, that’s on him; but to reward selfishness would simply beget more selfishness.

01/06/2019 - 7:09pm Michigan has now defeated…

Michigan has now defeated Indiana in five straight games. That hasn’t happened since at least 1950 (I couldn’t find year-by-year results prior to the 1949-50 season).

12/24/2018 - 1:54pm That's true, but I think a…

That's true, but I think a lot of that is based on preseason numbers still.  Purdue is 7-5, with losses to Michigan, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Notre Dame, and Texas.  None of those are bad losses, but it's not the résumé of a top team.  Their only two category-B-or-better wins are Maryland and Davidson.

Villanova is 9-4, with a nice win over Florida State and a decent win over Oklahoma State. They also have a close loss at Kansas.  However, they have the Furman and Penn losses.

They're both solid wins, but, IMO, they're not as good as they looked at the time.

12/24/2018 - 1:36pm Look, I'm as big a Michigan…

Look, I'm as big a Michigan fan as anybody, but Duke is a better team than Michigan is.

That's not to say that Michigan won't be better by March, or that Michigan couldn't win a game between the two -- but, on a neutral court, Duke would (rightly) be favored right now.

Focusing strictly on the number of losses isn't right in football and it's not right in basketball either.  Neither Purdue nor Villanova look that great this year.  Duke's one loss is by two points to a legitimate top-10 Gonzaga team, and they blew out a Kentucky team that just beat the same North Carolina team Michigan did.

There's a reason that Duke got 35 of 64 first-place votes.  (I can think of no reason, OTOH, that Kansas got 4).

You are correct about one thing, though.  The sudden influx of idiotic Vol trolls aside, Tennessee is not a top-5 basketball team.  KenPom has them 11th; Torvik, 8th; Sagarin, 11th.  (To be fair, Massey does have them 5th).  They're trading on a legitimately good win over Gonzaga and a close loss to Kansas.  Other than that, I guess we're supposed to be impressed that they beat Louisville.

12/24/2018 - 1:28pm Haven't you trolls gotten…

Haven't you trolls gotten bored yet?

Also, I think CBS is ignoring the Vols' rousing victory over Lenoir-Rhyne, which is a real thing that actually happened.  (It's Rick Barnes's alma mater).

KenPom puts Tennessee's and Michigan's schedules into a similar range -- 148th for Michigan and 92nd for Tennessee.

12/22/2018 - 5:23pm Good Lord, what do we have…

Good Lord, what do we have to do to get competent officiating in the Big Ten?

So far in the second half, I've counted two obvious missed calls against Michigan -- Iggy traveled and didn't get called, and there was absolutely a loose-ball foul on him on the way to his dunk.

And I've counted *six* on Air Force -- four (!) missed travels and two missed push-offs.  How is this possible?

12/21/2018 - 10:10pm So, now jokes about one of…

So, now jokes about one of the worst public health tragedies in our country's history, huh?  Fly that ugly orange proud, son.

12/21/2018 - 8:50pm So, eleven years old it is,…

So, eleven years old it is, then.  Carry on.

12/21/2018 - 8:32pm Do you people seriously have…

Do you people seriously have nothing better to do?  Is your entire fanbase eleven years old?

This reminds me of the one joyous moment at that horrible Citrus Bowl -- seeing the two drunken Tennessee co-eds get ejected from the middle of the Michigan section after they spent the entire first half standing up and taunting people they didn't know.

Nothing but class in Knoxville, I see.

12/19/2018 - 2:21am You must be new here. :)…

You must be new here. :) Check out the game threads -- or the postgame threads -- for anything since Purdue.

Or, heck, this nugget.

 

12/18/2018 - 11:22pm Also, the #3 one seed on the…

Also, the #3 one seed on the Bracket Matrix, #4 on KenPom, #3 on Torvik, #5/6/3/1 on Sagarin (Overall, Predictor, Golden Mean, Recent), #1 on Massey...

Don't look now guys, but this team is off to a pretty good start this year. :)

That won't stop certain posters on the board from dumping on them when they fail to become the first undefeated college basketball team in 42 years (or, if they do, when they fail to score on every possession or allow a four- or five-point run).

12/18/2018 - 11:16pm The NET is updated daily.

The NET is updated daily.

12/18/2018 - 4:03pm Saban always makes a Crazy…

Saban always makes a Crazy Ivan to starboard in the bottom half of the hour.

12/18/2018 - 3:59pm Wait, I see the problem. …

Wait, I see the problem.  The divisor in the last term should be m-sub-(q-minus-1) factorial, not m-sub-q factorial.  That's crazy talk.  No wonder you got the wrong answer! ;)

12/17/2018 - 11:24pm It wouldn't help.  An IP…

It wouldn't help.  An IP address doesn't really identify anyone.  Some ISPs will provide someone with a new IP address extremely frequently (mobile ISPs in particular); meanwhile, that IP address gets recycled and so you end up banning the innocent.

That's even before you get into corporate networks.  At my company, all Internet traffic is routed through a small number of outbound gateways. When I make requests from the office, my IP comes back to a location over a thousand miles away at our main campus, where it's in a pool that's shared with thousands of people.

12/17/2018 - 3:00pm Huh?  Irregardless isn't a…

Huh?  Irregardless isn't a word -- regardless is correct -- but irreplaceable is absolutely a word; it's an antonym for replaceable.  Merriam-Webster dates it to 1807.  The ir- prefix comes from Middle English in- (meaning not: example, incapable), used with certain initial sounds to prevent awkwardness.  "in-regardless" sounds weird, so it got morphed to "irregardless."  Similar changes occur with words like "improper" (not "in-proper").

12/16/2018 - 5:15pm I can't decide if this is…

I can't decide if this is more A Few Good Men:

Get me the President on the phone. We're surrendering our position in Cuba.

or Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure:

Bill: Ted, while I agree that, in time, or band will be most triumphant, the truth is, Wyld Stallyns will never be a super band until we have Eddie Van Halen on guitar.

Ted: Yes, Bill, but I do not believe we will get Eddie Van Halen until we have a triumphant video.

B: Ted, it's pointless to have a triumphant video before we even have decent instruments.

T: Well, how can we have decent instruments when we don't really even know how to play?

B: That is why we need Eddie Van Halen!

T: And that is why we need a triumphant video!

Both: Excellent!

 

12/15/2018 - 6:45pm Yeah, Michigan had 32 points…

Yeah, Michigan had 32 points on 35 first-half possessions, followed by 38 points on 32 second half possessions.  The offense never really flowed great, but the first 15 minutes were an absolute slog. If they scored with the same efficiency in the first half as the second, they'd have been up 42-30 at the half and finished with a comfortable 18 point win, 80-62.  And still missed the KenPom number. :/

12/15/2018 - 6:42pm The defense gave up 0.93 ppp…

The defense gave up 0.93 ppp and actually dropped in efficiency -- they're now #2 DRtg on KenPom behind Texas Tech.  And that doesn't even account for the difficulty level of some of those makes -- in a world where WMU's garbage shots don't fall quite as frequently, this is a 70-52 win instead of a 70-62 win.

That said, I stand by the same point I made in the game thread -- Michigan is going to see a lot more garbage shots go in against them than they're going to make themselves, and that's because Michigan's defense is forcing a lot more garbage shots than their opponents are.

12/15/2018 - 6:35pm Nevada game?  Michigan didn…

Nevada game?  Michigan didn't play Nevada last year...

12/15/2018 - 5:15pm And, in fact, that's right…

And, in fact, that's right about how much Michigan fell, taking into account the bump they had gotten from Villanova keeping it close with Kansas earlier.  They're now #6 in KenPom, and their expected Big Ten record dropped by a win, to 14-6, tied with MSU.  #3, and still 16-4, on Torvik, though.

12/15/2018 - 4:20pm Michigan just won a game…

Michigan just won a game shooting 17/36 from 2, when they couldn't buy a call inside the paint for the last ten minutes of the game.  (Meanwhile, WMU made 56% (!) from 2, thanks in large part to garbage shots falling).

I'm not sure a dozen of those misses were at the rim, but it sure seemed that way.  And, I agree, it's not particularly likely to repeat itself.

Michigan won this game largely by getting up 8 more shot attempts and taking 5 more free throws.  It's good to have an offense built around avoiding turnovers. :)