My only nit is I think you undersell Jaylon Smith. I suppose it's understandable based solely on Rice. He had no highlight reel plays in this game, but didn't have much opportunity, either. He was near dominant the last half of last year (ASU, USC), and did make a couple tackles in the Rice game that had me rubbing my eyes in disbelief. One was in the 1st Q, 3rd and 10, and Rice ran a perfect inside draw against an outside blitz. Should've gone for 40-50 yards. Smith ran him down after 6, from absolutely out of nowhere, and forced a punt. That's alot of words to tell you that ND hasn't had an athlete like him on defense in YEARS. He's still a below average blitzer, but I don't think he'll be asked to do that much tomorrow.
If they are cleared, that would mean they were either improperly held out of 3 weeks of practice and the Rice game and should be pissed off, or the transgression was minor enough that it warranted a one-game suspension.
I agree that it would look bad and the national 'hot takes' media would jump on it if they are cleared to play against UM, but that might truly be how the timing works with the Honor Committee process. Either way, like others said, I'm doubtful that this will be clarified today.
MGOBLOG is the best run college football site on the internet, and I do wish ND had an equivalent. The closest is actually nbcsports.com, but they have to be more generalized and unbiased about everything.
The one thing from BK's presser that concerns me a little bit is the hearings "are close to taking place" (read: today). I think there may be something in the Honor Code about 7 days to render a verdict AFTER the hearings, though. It's either 7 days after the investigation or 7 days after the hearing. If it's the latter, then the players are for sure not playing Saturday.
Rationale: The quarterbacking difference for ND over past years is immense. Golson can evade Mattison's blitzes, many of which will surely confuse the ND line.
ND to be very successful running the ball, especially straight up the gut.
ND gets a handful of very large chunk plays against the press man, but will struggle with intermediate conversions.
ND will double Funchess and force Chesson, Darboh, and Norfleet to beat them. Those 3 will get theirs...especially Norfleet on crossing routes which ND has a bizzarre inability to defend for the past 5 years.
Gardner will not be much of a running factor, as Jaylon Smith and Drue Tranquill will slow him down.
UM will not run all that successfully. A couple nice runs, but <4.5 ypc.
UM has one more turnover than ND.
ND makes 1-2 significant returns in special teams.
The investigation was complete late last week. So, the school (academic body, not athletics; athletics was not involved whatsoever) was finished collecting whatever evidence they had and closed the investigation last Thursday/Friday. At that point the issue gets kicked over to the Honor System or Honor Committee, which is made up of students and faculty. As I understand it this committee meets only once per week, and apparently - much to the chagrin of ND fans - cannot be bothered to reschedule or expedite their hearing. This committee is rumored to meet on Thursdays (today). This is all pieced together from various reports, statements from Kelly, statements from Swarbrick, and ex-students that have been through the process.
What else do we know? We know that the four, plus Hardy (the safety who was pulled out of activities late last week just before the Rice game) are not participating in any team activities. This includes film study. They are enrolled in school, I understand they continue to work out, but they are not currently 'with the team' so to speak.
What is a reasonable guess? I think a reasonable guess is the school's investigation found 'something' on each guy, otherwise they would not have to go in front of the Honor Committee. How much 'something', no one knows for sure. The scuttlebutt is that at least Russell is going to be cleared. There is a rumor that he may have known about others cheating, but did not report it. Apparently that is in the Honor Code so he violated a 'no snitchin' policy. F'ing ridiculous, if true. The overall investigation is allegedly centered around Russell's girlfriend typing papers for the players. The whole thing started from an email chain that inadvertantly was cc'd or forwarded to a professor (ouch!) The issue is was she just typing them from handwritten sheets, typing + proofreading and making suggestions, typing + proofreading + editing, how much editing is too much, or did she straight up write the papers? Daniels and his father were quite vocal that it was proofreading only before ND apparently put a radio silence order on all involved.
Personal takeaways: 1)I don't understand why the players are being held out of all practices, film study, etc. The games? Sure, if they think they may be ineligible. But I don't understand why they're held out of everything. They are still enrolled in school, the players (some, if not all) have been seen studying for classes, etc. Seems like a typical ND Administration over-reaction to make a mountain out of a molehill. The initial press conference and press release, in my opinion, was horrible. What was the purpose of volunteering that they will vacate wins in previous seasons, when no one asked or even went there? Issue a statement that X player(s) are being held out and move on. Who has a press conference with the President of the University and AD for something like that? Regardless, that act has appeared to make this a bigger deal than it actually is. Made it look more UNC/institutional thing than a couple guys.
2) Swarbrick must have some sort of iron-fisted 'no leaks' policy, because no one knows $%#* about this. Very reminiscent of the Te'o thing where there was literally nothing leaking out of that investigation until the press conference.
3) I'm not going to venture a guess about who's getting cleared, who, if any, are getting kicked out, etc. No one knows yet.
4) 95% sure that even if cleared they're not gonna play much or at all against UM. Can't imagine they'd be ready from a game plan perspective.
5) Hardy getting added to the other four is terrible news. He was Collinsworth's backup at safety. Then Collinsworth got hurt, Hardy held out, and now Shumate is the starter. Shumate + Redfield making calls for the secondary terrifies the crap out of me, with all of Nussmeier's motions. I foresee mroe than one complete busts this Saturday.
FYI - any carry given to McDaniel is hair-pulling to this ND fan. Bryant and Folston are in another world athletically, especially Bryant, who could be the best ND back since Denson.
The story is that they couldn't keep Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State all on the schedule. The ND-UM contract had recurring 3 year terms, and ND exercised it with an eye on scheduling big out of region games. You'll see that they have home and home with Texas in '15/'16, then UGA, and now in talks with Bama. Also, MSU is no longer annual, but rotating on and off. I'm sure UM-ND will resume on similar rotation by 2020 or so.
Then the hard-core traditionalist ND fans will say "well UM cancelled the series first (Yost) and again later, so whatever".
Wow, that is really disappointing. I've been to dozens of ND games in South Bend (and 1 in the Big House - 38-0 :( ) and haven't heard whistles before. Was hoping that was not a true story.
You'll be amongst more of your brethren in Sections 114-116, although like others have said you are not likely to be bothered much except for random drunk arses.
I'm pretty sure the quote about postseason play is because for any non-BCS bowl game, ND gets thrown into the ACC mix and is eligible for any ACC bowl-tie-in. So, if ND's record would be the equivalent of #3 ACC, they could go to [Insert #3 ACC Bowl Tie-in Here] Bowl. Whereas, currently, ND is only eligible for BCS bowls, Cotton Bowl, or any other low-tier bowl game that allows At-Large teams and are not directly tied to a conference.
Basically, they have access to many more bowl games after this deal than currently.
Recent Comments
Really interesting and well done. For shits and giggles I ran Chaz Weis' numbers at ND since some compare Hoke's tenure with Weis;:
Wins per season differential: +0.33 (slightly below avg)
Year 1 vs Prior 3 yr: +2.0 (similar to Sark, Strong, Franklin)
Year 3 vs Prior 3 yr: -4.0 (similar to Neuheisal, Holgo)
The only overall comp to Weis would be Holgorsen, who was somewhat similar in Year 1 and Year 3.
My only nit is I think you undersell Jaylon Smith. I suppose it's understandable based solely on Rice. He had no highlight reel plays in this game, but didn't have much opportunity, either. He was near dominant the last half of last year (ASU, USC), and did make a couple tackles in the Rice game that had me rubbing my eyes in disbelief. One was in the 1st Q, 3rd and 10, and Rice ran a perfect inside draw against an outside blitz. Should've gone for 40-50 yards. Smith ran him down after 6, from absolutely out of nowhere, and forced a punt. That's alot of words to tell you that ND hasn't had an athlete like him on defense in YEARS. He's still a below average blitzer, but I don't think he'll be asked to do that much tomorrow.
Bra-bleeping-vo, gentlemen!
If they are cleared, that would mean they were either improperly held out of 3 weeks of practice and the Rice game and should be pissed off, or the transgression was minor enough that it warranted a one-game suspension.
I agree that it would look bad and the national 'hot takes' media would jump on it if they are cleared to play against UM, but that might truly be how the timing works with the Honor Committee process. Either way, like others said, I'm doubtful that this will be clarified today.
At the risk of ruining my welcome, what was Lewan purported to have threatened?
MGOBLOG is the best run college football site on the internet, and I do wish ND had an equivalent. The closest is actually nbcsports.com, but they have to be more generalized and unbiased about everything.
The one thing from BK's presser that concerns me a little bit is the hearings "are close to taking place" (read: today). I think there may be something in the Honor Code about 7 days to render a verdict AFTER the hearings, though. It's either 7 days after the investigation or 7 days after the hearing. If it's the latter, then the players are for sure not playing Saturday.
They replaced UM with Texas and Georgia before OSU.
Rationale: The quarterbacking difference for ND over past years is immense. Golson can evade Mattison's blitzes, many of which will surely confuse the ND line.
ND to be very successful running the ball, especially straight up the gut.
ND gets a handful of very large chunk plays against the press man, but will struggle with intermediate conversions.
ND will double Funchess and force Chesson, Darboh, and Norfleet to beat them. Those 3 will get theirs...especially Norfleet on crossing routes which ND has a bizzarre inability to defend for the past 5 years.
Gardner will not be much of a running factor, as Jaylon Smith and Drue Tranquill will slow him down.
UM will not run all that successfully. A couple nice runs, but <4.5 ypc.
UM has one more turnover than ND.
ND makes 1-2 significant returns in special teams.
The investigation was complete late last week. So, the school (academic body, not athletics; athletics was not involved whatsoever) was finished collecting whatever evidence they had and closed the investigation last Thursday/Friday. At that point the issue gets kicked over to the Honor System or Honor Committee, which is made up of students and faculty. As I understand it this committee meets only once per week, and apparently - much to the chagrin of ND fans - cannot be bothered to reschedule or expedite their hearing. This committee is rumored to meet on Thursdays (today). This is all pieced together from various reports, statements from Kelly, statements from Swarbrick, and ex-students that have been through the process.
What else do we know? We know that the four, plus Hardy (the safety who was pulled out of activities late last week just before the Rice game) are not participating in any team activities. This includes film study. They are enrolled in school, I understand they continue to work out, but they are not currently 'with the team' so to speak.
What is a reasonable guess? I think a reasonable guess is the school's investigation found 'something' on each guy, otherwise they would not have to go in front of the Honor Committee. How much 'something', no one knows for sure. The scuttlebutt is that at least Russell is going to be cleared. There is a rumor that he may have known about others cheating, but did not report it. Apparently that is in the Honor Code so he violated a 'no snitchin' policy. F'ing ridiculous, if true. The overall investigation is allegedly centered around Russell's girlfriend typing papers for the players. The whole thing started from an email chain that inadvertantly was cc'd or forwarded to a professor (ouch!) The issue is was she just typing them from handwritten sheets, typing + proofreading and making suggestions, typing + proofreading + editing, how much editing is too much, or did she straight up write the papers? Daniels and his father were quite vocal that it was proofreading only before ND apparently put a radio silence order on all involved.
Personal takeaways: 1)I don't understand why the players are being held out of all practices, film study, etc. The games? Sure, if they think they may be ineligible. But I don't understand why they're held out of everything. They are still enrolled in school, the players (some, if not all) have been seen studying for classes, etc. Seems like a typical ND Administration over-reaction to make a mountain out of a molehill. The initial press conference and press release, in my opinion, was horrible. What was the purpose of volunteering that they will vacate wins in previous seasons, when no one asked or even went there? Issue a statement that X player(s) are being held out and move on. Who has a press conference with the President of the University and AD for something like that? Regardless, that act has appeared to make this a bigger deal than it actually is. Made it look more UNC/institutional thing than a couple guys.
2) Swarbrick must have some sort of iron-fisted 'no leaks' policy, because no one knows $%#* about this. Very reminiscent of the Te'o thing where there was literally nothing leaking out of that investigation until the press conference.
3) I'm not going to venture a guess about who's getting cleared, who, if any, are getting kicked out, etc. No one knows yet.
4) 95% sure that even if cleared they're not gonna play much or at all against UM. Can't imagine they'd be ready from a game plan perspective.
5) Hardy getting added to the other four is terrible news. He was Collinsworth's backup at safety. Then Collinsworth got hurt, Hardy held out, and now Shumate is the starter. Shumate + Redfield making calls for the secondary terrifies the crap out of me, with all of Nussmeier's motions. I foresee mroe than one complete busts this Saturday.
FYI - any carry given to McDaniel is hair-pulling to this ND fan. Bryant and Folston are in another world athletically, especially Bryant, who could be the best ND back since Denson.
The story is that they couldn't keep Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State all on the schedule. The ND-UM contract had recurring 3 year terms, and ND exercised it with an eye on scheduling big out of region games. You'll see that they have home and home with Texas in '15/'16, then UGA, and now in talks with Bama. Also, MSU is no longer annual, but rotating on and off. I'm sure UM-ND will resume on similar rotation by 2020 or so.
Then the hard-core traditionalist ND fans will say "well UM cancelled the series first (Yost) and again later, so whatever".
Wow, that is really disappointing. I've been to dozens of ND games in South Bend (and 1 in the Big House - 38-0 :( ) and haven't heard whistles before. Was hoping that was not a true story.
You'll be amongst more of your brethren in Sections 114-116, although like others have said you are not likely to be bothered much except for random drunk arses.
I'm pretty sure the quote about postseason play is because for any non-BCS bowl game, ND gets thrown into the ACC mix and is eligible for any ACC bowl-tie-in. So, if ND's record would be the equivalent of #3 ACC, they could go to [Insert #3 ACC Bowl Tie-in Here] Bowl. Whereas, currently, ND is only eligible for BCS bowls, Cotton Bowl, or any other low-tier bowl game that allows At-Large teams and are not directly tied to a conference.
Basically, they have access to many more bowl games after this deal than currently.
I think...