Member for

5 years 8 months
Points
640.00

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
12/01/2016 - 2:00pm From the article

Rogers Redding, national coordinator for NCAA football officiating, says referees are human but unfailingly scrupulous. “I can unequivocally say that I have never seen any sign of bias on the part of officials at any level,” says Redding, who officiated NCAA football for 18 years.

He has "never seen any sign of bias" in 18 years. That is impossible.

If you can't even acknowledge a problem sometimes occurs, how would it ever get fixed?

11/15/2016 - 10:50am Seems to be a lot of

Seems to be a lot of judgement being passed on Wormley on the twitter thread. The video doesn't show what happened to cause the collision, maybe that person came flying out of no-where. Rushing the field is often chaotic

09/09/2016 - 10:17am 2-0 Michigan

2-0 Michigan

 

I gave up trying to find a shutout score that wasn't taken already

01/28/2016 - 4:04pm Sorry

Debate is no allowed on here, only group think and circle jerks.

12/10/2015 - 11:31pm Early Enrollment

I guess I'm a bit ignorant. Can anyone explain:

1.  Why would early enrollment be so important to a player?

2. Why would a university deny early enrollment?

Thanks in advance

12/07/2015 - 11:21pm The weather conditions can be

The weather conditions can be different at different airports, particularly for fog.

12/03/2015 - 12:09am Maryland has the disadvantage

Maryland has the disadvantage of being hated by the ACC

11/26/2015 - 11:17am Patreon?

Has Brian considered joining Patreon? I support a couple websites on there

11/22/2015 - 2:51pm AWS?

I've been looking into AWS lately to figure out if that'd work for hosting a server I need - is there a reason (that you can share) that you didn't go that route? I thought AWS was designed to handle load spikes, but on the other hand I thought they only billed you for CPU time instead of number of "active instances"

11/21/2015 - 4:04pm The ref that threw the flag

The ref that threw the flag was about 3 feet from the play, directly in front of him, so maybe he had a better view than us   /s

11/21/2015 - 4:00pm We're playing with house

We're playing with house money now!

11/16/2015 - 1:35pm Wow

I'm sure Rudock would appreciate the award, even if you guys done like Manning or whatever

11/11/2015 - 12:29pm What's true is heavily

What's true is heavily influenced by the public's opinion - I guess now is the time to start lobbying for ND to be treated like an ACC member.

If ND's SoS is so great, maybe they should take ND over Clemson

 

11/11/2015 - 10:29am Notre Dame is ACC

Notre Dame is an ACC team. They're ACC for every other sport and they play half of their season against the ACC. The committee won't send both an ACC team and Notre Dame, that's ridiculous

Maybe in an 8-team playoff both could go, but not in a 4-team playoff.

11/10/2015 - 8:31pm ND is basically part of the

Exactly, ND is basically part of the ACC and they'd already be sending Clemson as conference champion. They shouldn't be sending both Clemson and ND, especialy since ND lost to Clemson - that's just rewarding ND's shenanigans.

11/07/2015 - 5:35pm based on the holding and pass

based on the holding and pass interference calls, yes

11/01/2015 - 3:41pm Clearly more ACC favoritism

Clearly more ACC favoritism for Duke. The refs made a dozen erroneous calls against Miami, none of which has been mentioned by the ACC. They had a historic 27 penalties against Miami. The ACC has been a Duke/UNC conference for a while now - now they want it to be that way in football as well as basketball

10/29/2015 - 7:00pm The CFP wants to avoid

The CFP wants to avoid controversies, I doubt they would skip taking a conference champion but still take a team from that same conference.

10/29/2015 - 4:07pm 35-0 Michigan

35-0 Michigan

10/29/2015 - 1:44pm It's time to chill out

It's time to chill out - it's a funny article if you can learn to relax a bit

10/23/2015 - 3:49pm The worst part about losing

The worst part about losing the game was (or has been) everyone on this board throwing their perpetual hissy fit and telling everyone else to not post anything relevant

10/22/2015 - 6:41pm Misclick

It was a misclick (j/k)

I actually saw the UT Austin version of this at the UT Austin version of M-Den recently and we were disappointed that there was no Michigan equivalent. It must have just come out in the last couple days

10/22/2015 - 6:38pm The box says that they're

The box says that they're "Compatible with Major Brands"

 

10/22/2015 - 1:20pm Random

People don't know what a series of coin flips usually looks like. 10 coin flips in a row is usually not going to be 5-5 or even 6-4. There are often long streaks of one side or the other.

You can play with a 50 coin flip here:

https://www.random.org/integers/?num=50&min=0&max=1&col=1&base=10&forma…

 

10/21/2015 - 12:35pm Whoops

My only complaint has been about adding up the individual results and getting "23.58 points", which I guess I didn't say explicitly. I agree with how the plays are calculated individually.

10/20/2015 - 11:54pm Not to be a pain in the

Not to be a pain in the ass... I appreciate the article and its analysis and whatnot

From my understanding, in this analysis you're looking at the effect of the expected value of a particular drive. So before the event you have some vector, e.g., (1% safety, 10% punt, 5% downs, 50% touchdown, 34% field goal) and then after the event you have some other vector (0% safety, 5% punt, 2% downs, 80% touchdown, 13% field goal). For easier digestion, this gets multiplied by the change in score from each event (-2, 0, 0, 7, 3) and summed so that we are left with a single number. In this sense, this analysis is done on a drive-by-drive basis.

So while I agree that on a philsophical level, as soon as one event in the entire game changes, everything else in the game will also be affected through the butterfly effect, my point is that the expected value of a given drive cannot exceed 7 points. If the expected value of an entire drive cannot exceed 7 points, then the cumulative *changes* in expected value for a given drive also cannot exceed 7 points.

I made some attempt to address that by multiplying the probability of later events by the inverse-probability of earlier events, but I agree that's not perfect.

10/20/2015 - 10:29pm Sorry. All I meant was that

Sorry. All I meant was that if two of the penalties analyzed in this article are from the same drive, a change of one penalty would affect the other, i.e., they are not independent.

So let's say you have penalty A and penalty B where penalty A is a missed hold call on 3nd down and penalty B is a phantom pass interference call on the next set of downs. In this article the change in expected points is calculated as if these are independent, so the change in value is (VA*PA + VB*PB) where VA = Value(A) and PA=Probability(A).

What I'm saying is if these two penaltys are from the same drive, then Penalty B would only have an effect if Penalty A was not called correctly. So the formula should be (VA*PA+VB*PB*(1-VA)). So each later contribution is dampened by the earlier penalties.

 

 

10/20/2015 - 8:21pm I know you're multiplying by

I know you're multiplying by probability factors to get expected points, but you still may have a double-counting issue if two fouls came from the same drive

10/20/2015 - 7:04pm Double-Counting

@Seth

I haven't dug into it, but make sure you're not double-counting penalties from the same drive. I know at least two plays happened in a row, and you cant say one cost us 3 points and the next one cost us 4 points so together they cost us 7 points.

10/20/2015 - 5:01pm Opposing wants

Fans want to make the playoffs

Fans want the programs to have lots of money

Fans want to watch interesting games

#1 and #3 are easily resolved if the conference champion gets to go the playoffs and the conference championship does not depend on OOC games (as it currently does). #2 may or not be an issue since better games bring in more money, but we'd have fewer home games.

10/16/2015 - 10:51am It's directly between the

It's directly between the north campus diag and the giant fountain by lurie. It's between the winding path and the stairs between those two places.

Here it is on google maps:

https://www.google.com/maps/@42.2916494,-83.7145371,3a,75y,231.53h,81.29t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sSOmlBXW9iiC-8tlyidrOig!2e0!7i13312!8i6656!6m1!1e1

10/15/2015 - 6:02pm That coach does not sound

That coach does not sound like a competitor.

10/14/2015 - 3:06pm 42-0 Michigan
42-0 Michigan
 
--------------
 
Edit: Someone took my score (but I posted it on MGoBoard!). So I guess I have to go with
49-0 Michigan
10/14/2015 - 1:52pm 42-0 Michigan

42-0 Michigan

10/12/2015 - 9:59am Just Win

If Michigan just wins with a large enough margin (e.g., 38-0), even injuries cant be an excuse

10/11/2015 - 9:26am Luckily

Luckily, this team gets better every week, and it would be many weeks before we'd play Baylor

10/08/2015 - 2:06pm Michigan Wins 6-0

Michigan Wins 6-0

10/07/2015 - 9:54pm Can confirm all of this

Can confirm all of this

10/06/2015 - 4:32pm Hilarious, but why?

Hilarious, but why did they waste that play on a game where they were up by a million? The score is 48-13 at that point

10/06/2015 - 3:45pm Yeah, once the ball hits the

Yeah, once the ball hits the ground it can't be fairly caught, can it?

10/01/2015 - 3:32pm 42-0

42-0

10/01/2015 - 1:33pm -

> Only two in the top 25 of the rankings.

Three if you count Chicago as an emeritus

 

10/01/2015 - 1:32pm It's weird how the game has

It's weird how the game has been played so long but there's still such an obvious error in the logic of the rules

10/01/2015 - 1:26pm This is a good move - I'd

This is a good move - I'd rather deal with heavy rain during the day than heavy rain at night. I can't imagine the # of accidents that would be caused by Hurricane Weather + Out of Towners + Night

09/29/2015 - 10:14am The defense could start

The defense could start scoring. They should aim for at least 1 TD per quarter. That would be similar to negative points.

09/28/2015 - 10:47pm The Onion is practically the

The Onion is practically the Big Ten version of The Every Three Weekly

Edit:

Here is a list of locations that it was distributed in print:

09/28/2015 - 10:20am Special Teams Practice

You have to admit, it'd be good practice for special teams.

09/26/2015 - 3:28pm Shutout

Go Blue!

I called the shutout :)

09/25/2015 - 3:38pm Shutout

I believe in the shutout. Our team will be disciplined and BYU will not get on the board.

09/22/2015 - 1:54pm I'd be okay with them getting

I'd be okay with them getting paid like how other students get paid, which is hourly at $8-10/hr when working for the university. That rate is true even for engineering students who are working for the university but could instead go on internship and make a lot more money.

If they could go pro and make more money, then let them go pro. Forcing them to go to college and make litlte money... that's not right. College should be a choice

Coaching salaries should probably be considered a separate issue