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Date Title Body
11/20/2013 - 4:22pm Scheme?

Gardner played the last four games last year and had just 1 int per game. M scored 35, 38, 42, and 21 points against Minn, NW, Iowa, ohio.

This year, it was 9 ints in the first 4 games. Since then just 3 in 6 games. The first 3 of those games the offense was still humming with 42, 40, and 63 points.

The last three games the offense has cratered. I don't think the talent level has changed or the level of competition.

It just appears we are being outcoached.

11/12/2013 - 12:15pm Yikes

I messed up my cut and paste. Thanks, I'll make the correction.

11/08/2013 - 5:47pm Turnovers

A lot has to do with turnovers. Akron was -2 TOM, UConn was -3 TOM

2012: ND was -4 TOM, ohio was -2 TOM (both of those games were lost primarily due to TOs).

2011: Iowa was -2 TOM (another loss due to TOs). ND was +2 TOM (yeah, a win due to TOs).

10/22/2013 - 1:34pm Haitian Creole

"I, Fitzgerald Toussaint am half African American and Haitian. My mother is African American and my father is Haitian born and raised there.

https://sites.google.com/site/swc10004/home/fitzgerald-toussaint-s-essay

10/22/2013 - 12:50pm Yikes

How did a POST (i.e. written words -- not spoken words) result in a discussion on how something is pronounced??

I am trying to figure out if my faith in the audacity of the MGoBlog community has been restored or my sense of doom about humanity in general has been magnified.

10/17/2013 - 8:21pm Probability?

With Gardner having a 7% interception percentage, is it more likely to throw an interception or have Gibbons miss a field goal?

Is there a breakeven distance?

10/08/2013 - 5:56pm Of Course

Here are the other B1G TOMs/game:

Nebraska = +1.0
NW = +1.0
MSU = +0.8
ohio = +0.6
Wiscy = +0.2
Minny = +0.2
Iowa = +0.2
Illinois = -0.2
Indiana = -0.2
Penn State = -0.6
Purdue = -1.2

Notice anything? After looking at TOs for the last 5 years, I have concluded that TOs are more a reflection of a team's overall performance rather than a determining factor of a team's performance (good teams have better TOMs, poor teams have worse TOMs).

09/24/2013 - 9:13pm Watch This Space

I am fully aware that MGoBrian and others have stated their e-pinion that turnovers are random. Not buying it.

I challenge anyone to ask/tell Brady Hoke that he is wasting his time talking about turnovers (both to the media and his team). Or ask him why he is wasting so much time in practices with drills that are meant to minimize turnovers.

I challenge anyone who watches Devin Gardner run with the ball to rationally believe that if he fumbles it is just "a random event or just bad luck".

Anyone who is counting on regression to the mean to solve Michigan's turnover problem is going to be very, very disappointed. There are solutions -- but just ignoring the problem and hoping it will all even out, is not one of the solutions.

Since this is the bye week, it is as good as time as any to revisit this question in more detail with some data.

Watch this space next Monday.

 

09/24/2013 - 1:37pm Yup

I posted that in last week's diary. But, to refresh your memory:

Quarterbacks!: In 2011, quarterbacks were responsible for 19 of 21 turnovers. In 2012, quarterbacks were responsible for 23 of 25 turnovers. So far in 2013, quarterbacks are responsible for 8 of 8 turnovers.

After Saturday, make that 11 of 12 turnovers this year.

AAAAAARRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!

09/17/2013 - 5:54pm I Agree

During the game, I also thought the turnovers were more of an impact. In fact, I was shocked when the calculations came out the way they did.

I think the Mathlete did an analysis last year (perhaps the year before?) that indicated the change in momentum due to turnovers was not very significant. But, it seemed like the TOs hurt M a lot more than the EP indicates.

09/11/2013 - 6:20pm Gallon?

Am I missing something or are the stats for Gallon missing on the +/- chart?

09/11/2013 - 11:39am Nada

Nope, I am not a sudent and they did not ask for any ID. Just signed a sheet at the info desk to get a parking pass.

09/09/2013 - 9:39pm Sorry

Did not go to Bo's. The front exhibit is 5 display tables and the continuation in the back is 4 cabinets on the wall.

09/04/2013 - 11:19am Next Column

In the chart the first column (FMB) shows all fumbles by player and the second column indicates if the fumble was lost (FL).

09/03/2013 - 7:53pm Ooops

Thanks for the catch. I'll fix the WMU goof.

11/14/2012 - 1:19pm My Bad

The data is in the table but I forgot to highlight it in maize. Ooops.

Thanks for the catch.

11/07/2012 - 1:17pm This Year Has Been The Exception

Most of the computer ranking systems do NOT even use their own data to predict games on a weekly basis. So, FEI is one of the few systems available.

FEI has a very good track record at predictions in general and for M specifically. But, this year has certainly been an exception. I will ask Fremeau if he has an explanation for this.

 

11/06/2012 - 12:03pm Minor Correction

S&P+ is not a Fremeau stat.

FEI is the Fremeau stat and is possession based.

S&P+ is a Bill Connelly stat and is play based.

NCAA F/+ is a combined rating.

Beginning with the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feiplus

10/31/2012 - 10:55am Big Bounce

I just find it hard to beieve a ball would bounce 5 feet into the air if a player was holding on to it and the ball did not hit the ground!

And, if the catch had not been secured when the ball hit the ground, it was immediately an incomplete pass.

10/25/2012 - 6:14pm Yup

I posed the question to Fremeau and he replied that he includes a fake punt as just another offensive play.

Kind of like going for it on 4th down. If you don't make it, it is not considered a TO.

This is where the "official" stats are really not reflecting what actually happened in the game.

10/25/2012 - 6:10pm Raw Scores

For FEI, the GE value represents the "raw scores" before adjustments for opponents.

M is ranked #23 in GE with an SoS of 9

Nebraska is #53 in GE with an SoS of 46

MSU is #47 in GE with an SoS of 38

So, yeah, I am totally confused with the FEI rankings

 

10/25/2012 - 10:18am Weird stats

Yeah, I agree. I think the fake punt ends up as just another play in the official stats. Because the FEI folks actually gave M the advantage in Special Teams (by a whopping 5.2 points!) I assume they do not even include this as a special teams play.

10/25/2012 - 10:14am Not Looking Good

I doubt that M will get close to my predicted TOM for the year. But, TOs tend to happen in very erratic fashion (none for a few games, then one game with a bunch, etc.) so it may happen.

I'm not holding my breath.

10/18/2012 - 12:43pm Your Wish Is My Command

According to the FEI folks:

"Half of all teams finished within 10 ranking spots of their preseason FEI projection last year. 26 percent finished within five ranking spots. 20 percent finished within two ranking spots."

"the correlation of FEI projections to FEI final ratings at the end of the year is .785."

BUT, they also say,

"Projecting team efficiency ratings and game outcomes for 124 teams is relatively easy at the macro level. For the most part, the top teams consistently dominate college football and are easy to identify through the projection factors"

M was ranked #23 in the FEI preseason with 8 FBS wins projected.

http://footballoutsiders.com/fei-ratings/2012/fei-preseason-primer-2012

10/09/2012 - 3:31pm Thanks

The link to BCFToys should be fixed. Thanks.

The trend in defense (both FEI and National Rankings) is very encouraging.

10/03/2012 - 3:14pm Turnovers

Purdue was +3 in turnovers against Marshall with two picks being returned for TDs.

The folks at FEI calculated a 10 point loss by Purdue against Marshall without the TOs.

 

09/27/2012 - 6:17pm Can't Lose

I guarantee we will not lose this Saturday!!!

09/26/2012 - 1:37pm You Sir Are Correct!

You are absolutely correct. TOs are not (and never have been) evenly distributed.

Last year, M had 2 games with zero TOs, 5 games with 1 TO, 2 games with 2 TOs, 3 games with 3 TOs, and 1 game with 4 TOs.

In order by game: 0  3  1  4  0  3  1  2  2  3  1  1  1

Also, NOT random (I too just can't help myself.....)

09/26/2012 - 11:32am Absolutely!

Yes, of course. But I don't have any explanation of why Denard's interception % would improve so dramatically during the last 9 games of last year. Just hope it repeats again this year.

09/24/2012 - 12:58pm Comparable Stats

Uh, let's look at comparable stats:

After 4 games in 2011, DRob had a 8.33% interception rate (ints/pass attempt) and improved dramatically over the last 9 games with a 4.72 int%.

After 4 games this year, DRob has a 8.0% int%. Actually better than last year.

09/19/2012 - 4:29pm Super Slow

In the ND games I watched (Purdue & MSU), their pace was sloooooooow.

Whatever happened to the "up tempo" and "please NBC don't let commercials upset our pace of the game"??

09/12/2012 - 10:39am Oooops

Yes, you are right.

Score without TOs should be: M 31 --- AFA 24.16

Thanks

09/12/2012 - 10:33am Check It Out

Check out the data -- M had double digit NEGATIVE turnover margins in every one RR's 3 years.

So, it is totally consistent with the theory that poor teams have poor TOMs.

09/11/2012 - 7:03pm I'll Keep Saying It

Nope, TOs are not random. Very good teams have good TO ratios, very poor teams have poor TO ratios.

If TOs were random:

1) There would be a 50/50 chance that every team (including M) would have a negative TOM every year. M has had a positive TOM 10 of the last 14 years and that includes the 3 RR disaster years (when M was a very bad team).

2) M has not been a very good team so far this year. Therefore, I am not surprised that the TOM has been poor. If they do not improve significantly, the win/loss record will not be good and the TOM will not be good either.

09/11/2012 - 6:52pm Not Really

Uh, yea -- we've been in the Blue Lot forever and deliberately moved several times to get away from you guys!

Your music is so loud that even trying to talk is almost impossible. I expect loud music when I go to rock concerts -- not when I am tailgaiting with friends and family and trying to enjoy one another's conversations.

You may think that it is your right to ruin other people's game experience by blasting noise much louder than you possibly need.

If you tried this at your house, I'm sure your neighbors would not appreciate it. In fact, it is certainly against all noise ordinances.

True Michigan fans are more considerate of others than you are.

09/05/2012 - 2:10pm Penn State

Penn State was only at 95.17% attendance in 2011 at 101,427

They just had 97,186 on Saturday. Down to just 90.59% capacity.

 

09/05/2012 - 1:56pm Attendance

Per NCAA: Attendance in 2011 was down only an average of 415 people per game at 45,498 (versus 2010).

As far as I can see, 2008 was the highest ever and was only an average of 46,456.

A dropoff of just 958 seats per game.

Details here:

http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/public/ncaa/resources/stats/footbal…

09/05/2012 - 11:03am FEI

Brain Fremeau at FEI is predicting M 40 - 14 over AFA with a 95% win probability.

Hope he's right.

09/04/2012 - 4:52pm Selective Amnesia

The pass to Gallon was perfect. The pass to Gardner was terrible. If the defender had not already fallen down, that would not have been completed.

And, I suppose the 7.4% interception rate (which I adjusted for the Bellomy int) -- ranked #117 nationally --  will win a lot of games?

 

 

09/04/2012 - 1:03pm One Game

The loss of Countess will result in the loss of one additional game this year. It is just plain silly to believe that "it's not the player, it's the position".

That would say that if Mike Martin, David Molk, etc. had been out for all of last year M would still have won 11 games.

Jeeeez

09/02/2012 - 8:31pm Upset

For the first game of the season, it has been 8 months since the team has played a real football game. Even scrimmages do not come close to actual game speed and conditions. The first game of any season for any team is the game that may be the least indicative of their abilities. So, upsets are more likely.

It sure looks like Alabama was the exception (much to the detriment of M) but look at the other games. Several teams had close calls beating even the cupcakes. Imagine if they had played much tougher competition.

Even though your opponent in subsequent weeks will also have played earlier games, the overall performance of all the teams will be closer to what they are really able to accomplish.

Thus, upsets are less likely after week 1.

09/02/2012 - 2:15pm Risky

I have never seen the holder get injured. The B1G (and NFL) are limiting KO returns because there are so many injuries. Probably the same with punt returns but hard to reduce those.

If you have a lot of depth at a position, then special teams make sense. If you don't have depth, it is very risky to put your starters on the special teams.

Countess was hurt on special teams, not playing his position.

I believe the same thing happened with JT Floyd last year -- hurt on special teams.

09/01/2012 - 11:42pm Easy

The Blue Team, of course!!

09/01/2012 - 11:28pm Oooops

You were too late with the kittens. The DVR is toast. Dish is not going to be happy.

09/01/2012 - 11:24pm Insightful

Yes, if you think about the life cycle costs (cost over the long run, not just immediate gratification), this is likely to be a very high price indeed.

09/01/2012 - 10:07pm Expenses

According to

http://businessofcollegesports.com/2011/06/20/which-football-and-basket…

M is ranked 4th in profit. 63.2 mil in revenue, 18.3 mil expenses, 44.9 profit.

The total expenses for M football is $18.3 million in 10-11. That is only 1.4 mil per game.

This must include equipment, coaches salaries, travel, etc. etc.

I doubt if the incremental cost of a home game is more than a 100K or so.

09/01/2012 - 9:56pm Diversion

Really, almost everyone is trying to forget about the game. Go check out the live blog.

They've switched to crystal meth -- alcohol wasn't enuf. (check the comments)

09/01/2012 - 9:54pm Makes NO Sense

You're wrong.

Uh, M gets the $5.5 million from a home game with a patsy from the MAC that never, ever gets a return date.

Plus, 90% of the people who go to home games were priced out of this one --- me included.

09/01/2012 - 9:15pm Not Enuf

Whatever I'm drinking, it's not enuf. My liver will never forgive Dave Brandon.

Yeah, it's 24-0.

 

08/31/2012 - 11:55am Check It Out

I do a weekly Turnover Analysis during the season in the Diaries. In only 25% of college football games, are TOs a factor in determining the winning team. Turnovers alone will rarely make a poor team (from a W/L standpoint) into a very good team.

Last year M ended the season with a +2 win/loss advantage due to TOM. So, I would postulate M would have ended the year at 9-4 instead of 11-2 without the TOM advantage.

A 9-4 record is still very good (typically top 25). So M was a very good team that was benefited by TOs to be an even better team.