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Date Title Body
06/21/2018 - 5:54pm I tend to get hooked on…

I tend to get hooked on Breweries and enjoy exploring their repertoire, so a few of my favorites from the list are:

  • Dogfish Head
    I'm curious the list includes the 3 Timed IPA's (60/90/120 Minute) from Dogfish Head all made the list which are all very similar and could reasonably rated as a single class, but their Shelter Pale Ale did not, which is my favorite of Dogfish Head.
  • New Belgium
    The Ranger and Voodoo Ranger are couple of righteous IPA's. Glad to see the New Belgium Brewery made the list - they make a really good Belgian Ale called Trippel, and a Pilsner called Blue Paddle.
  • Founder's All Day IPA is nice when you planning to drink a lot.
  • Bell's Hopslam is the bombslam, if you can get it. Fortunately, you don't need very many.

Not from the list but worth plugging:

  • DCBrau
    The Corruption IPA, The Citizen Belgian Style. Next time you're in DC, you need to try this. You can find it in local pubs, bars and restaurants, as well as in cans at the store, but it's more fun to go for a brewery tour and fill up yer growler, if you brought one.

 

06/07/2018 - 3:32pm The universe surely has, or…

The universe surely has, or has had, many instances of intelligent life evolving. What separates them quite simply is space-time. The scale of the universe is so vast that over the entire course of the history of a species, that species would not be able travel far enough so as to come across another species in the same time and place, unless by chance two environments evolve in close proximity to each other - but there's still the timing aspect, as appears to be our situation regarding Mars. We see now stars that are 100's of millions of light years away, meaning said light is 100's of millions of years old. The same star systems may well at this very moment hold wonderfully advanced beings, but by the time they (or records of them) reach us, humans and/or the others may both be extinct. That's not to say no two species have ever met up. That probably/surely has happened in consideration of how many species probably exist in the universe (or even a galaxy), but the likelihood remains not terribly great for any single species to come upon another.

06/03/2018 - 11:04am Not to mention that CFP and

Not to mention that CFP and Final 4 are redundant. Final Four also suggests a preceding process of elimination to reach that point, which the CFP is not. It’s the starting point, and if it were basketball, would be equivalent to the Final 68.

05/26/2018 - 10:30am Mrs. Miniver (1942)

About a British family in early part of WWII, with Dunkirk as a backdrop. Best Picture, 1943.

05/26/2018 - 10:01am Apocalypse Now, Paths of Glory & Full Metal Jacket

Apocalypse Now - adapted from a fictional non-war novel to American covert Ops in Vietnam and Cambodia. A story of men’s descent into an amoral morass of madness where the only response to ruthlessness is still greater ruthlessness (“extreme prejudice” in the SpecOps vernacular). Beautiful cinematography. Should have won Best Picture.

Paths of Glory - not about Americans, not about WWII or even Vietnam. It’s a story about French troops fighting in the trenches of WWI. It stars a young Kirk Douglas and is directed by Stanley Kubrick. You can really see Kubrick’s style emerging - a true pièce de résistance!

Full Metal Jacket - Kubrick returns to the war milieu in this bookend to PoG, a contrast between the regimented life in boot camp and the chaos in-country, both of which are pervaded by psychological mind-fucks.

05/26/2018 - 9:37am In the vein of films about

In the vein of films about what war does to people, “Coming Home” and “Born on the Fourth of July” are a couple of good ones.

05/18/2018 - 3:34pm Behold Shiva, the model for

Behold Shiva, the model for the ultimate Michigan CB, who has 4 arms, and blue skin. The skin must be blue - and it's a big plus to be surrounded by a ring of flames, and who can easily balance on one foot whilst standing atop a red Buckeye demon.

Shiva Nataraj

05/15/2018 - 4:27pm ...and here's the 1969

...and here's the 1969 Mustgang Fastback. If too many of the design elements are changed, it doesn't look like a Mustang anymore.

and just for my own personal nostalgia, here's a '64-1/2 Mustang that's identical (color & everything) to the one my father had when I was born, and my older brothers learned to drive in...

05/15/2018 - 4:12pm I agree. My 2014 WRX is the

I agree. My 2014 WRX is the last of the hatchbacks. Looking forward to the VIZIV concept becoming a reality, and hoping they bring the hatches back.

Subaru WRX VIZIV

04/23/2018 - 4:10pm It was pretty much a sure

It was pretty much a sure thing. He never played a game in which he wasn't the fastest guy on the field, and that includes against that stealin' n' cheatin' MF'er, Terrelle Pryor.

04/13/2018 - 3:49pm A horse is a horse of course

Mr. Ed

04/13/2018 - 3:43pm Expected Win Totals

Last season looked prettier at this time. The key for 2018 is going to be player development and ensuring Patterson is a go, since the schedule is going to be even more a bitch than last year, playing 5 teams in the top 12, 3 of those on the road. Michigan ranks #10 and #11 in S&P+ and FPI, respectively.

S&P+ Expected Win Probabilities (Mean = 8.30 wins):

2018w00_S_amp_P_Michigan_overall_pwins

 

FPI Expected Win Probabilities (Mean = 8.43 wins):

2018w00_FPI_Michigan_overall_pwins

03/23/2018 - 5:27pm (No subject)

03/15/2018 - 5:17pm It usually starts when the

It usually starts when the Tiger players begin winking, striking poses and saying "Ooooh La La!" at the U La-La bench...

02/21/2018 - 6:31pm I've experienced catastrophic

I've experienced catastrophic illness to the point at which my spouse was approaching the lifetime maximum of my employer sponsored policy, which was about $1.5M at the time. I was contemplating the possibility that I might need to seek other employment just to obtain new coverage. Yea - just imagine interviewing for a new job in that situation! Alas, my spouse passed away before that happened, so in the end, I still have the same job AND the house our family lived in.

If you don't like high premiums, you can get catastrophic coverage policies that have very low premiums with high deductibles. As long as you can afford - or somehow finance - the maximum out-of-pocket for whatever policy you have, you're good.

But, unless you can afford the expense of any possible scenerio that might arise, it's socially irresponsible and reckless not to maintain a health insurance policy.

02/18/2018 - 1:04pm Only when they take off the

Only when they take off the snowboard and put on skis.

02/17/2018 - 9:32pm There are several games that

There are several games that are within the margin of home-field advantage, such that the road games at ND and MSU show close losses, and the home games versus Wisconsin and Penn State are narrow wins, and at #1, OSU remains OSU.

Here's the game-by-game breakdown for Michigan per S&P+:

2018w00_S_P_Michigan_overall_pwins

And ... here's the game-by-game breakdown per FPI as well:

2018w00_FPI_Michigan_overall_pwins

02/14/2018 - 5:22pm Nope. Patterson wouldn't

Nope. Patterson wouldn't impact these ratings since he's a transfer, and Peters is already a returning starter at QB anyway.

02/09/2018 - 3:40pm Any track off Marcel

Any track off Marcel Marceau’s Greatest Hits, cranked up to 11.

02/02/2018 - 11:38am Meh. I'm for driving fast and

Meh. I'm for driving fast and taking chances, not wearing seatbelts, and not having car insurance, and as a matter of fact, yes, I DO own the road, so you better get the F out of my way.

Oh wait, it's against the law to not have car insurance? Nevermind then, I've got a good policy that protects me and the others I might endanger when I get behind the wheel, and I even have one of those thingies that tracks my acceleration, speed and stopping force so I can get an even lower premium. Nuff said.

Moving on then ... I'm for not having healthcare insurance, because I'm as healthy as a horse, and hung like one too, and nothing's ever going to happen to me, amirite? Besides, if the law says I don't have to buy healthcare insurance, then I'm not gonna. Health insurance is for suckers who believe all the Surgeon General crap printed on a pack of cigarettes. I'm up to two packs a day, yo!

02/01/2018 - 4:46pm You forgot Chief Bottle

You forgot Chief Bottle Washer.

01/25/2018 - 11:27pm Dr. Marvin! Dr. Leo Marvin!

01/25/2018 - 5:54pm These days, I often start

These days, I often start watching DVR'ed games 30-60 minutes after kickoff, particularly when it's a nooner (the Game being an absolute exception, of course), for the main reason being on Saturday mornings I've got shit to do, yo!

That said, I'm usually caught up to real-time by the close of the 3rd quarter since I can FFWD through commercials, halftime, delays due to injury or reviews, etc., and the TiVo has a nifty mode you can flip in and out of that speeds up playback about 50%, which is handy between plays. You can still hear the announcers, it just goes faster.

I have an iPhone, so step one is flipping the mute switch. Step two is activating low-power mode, which is a quick-and-dirty way to shunt many of the notifications (via app refresh) as well as email fetches.

The hazard of course is starting too late, and not getting caught up to real-time before the DVR reaches the set time limit, which can be an issue if say, the game goes into OT or is just advancing slowly. For that reason, I will now add 60 mins. to the end of the scheduled recording. Once or twice, even 30 mins. has not been enough. Games take a solid 3:30 mins, nevermind what the program guide says.

01/19/2018 - 1:20pm It’s always been my

It’s always been my understanding that a 5* rating indicates a player who is able to make an immediate contribution at the college level without additional development. Since the kid is still a Sophomore in high school, his making an immediate contribution as of now is unlikely.

01/13/2018 - 1:44pm What a magnificent legacy

What a magnificent legacy he’s left us, and so it goes another legend enters Football Valhalla.

01/05/2018 - 3:45pm I agree. Steve Clarke does a

I agree. Steve Clarke does a fine analysis in his own right and would make an excellent addition to the Roundtable.
 

Also, in defense of Craig Ross, he does look at some advanced stats in his assessments, most notably his favorite being Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt.

01/05/2018 - 3:13pm A Few Meta-Observations

1) QB Kevin Doyle (DC St. Johns) remains unsigned, so shouldn't he technically remain in the "Commits/Awaiting Processing" column?

2) Shouldn't Shea Patterson have an asterisk and be listed in the "Sophomore" column until his waiver comes through? If it doesn't, he will be sitting out a year and would join the same class as Peters.

3) Shouldn't Solomon, Mone, Furbush & JBB be italicized? They started 4, 4, 4 and 7 games, respectively, this season.

12/28/2017 - 4:25pm Before he took the Wazzu job,

Before he took the Wazzu job, Mike Leach was a frequent guest-host with Jack Arute for many months on the SiriusXM College Football Playbook (now sadly overrun by ESPNU). He would extemporize on issues of the college-football day as well as a multitude of other subjects. Always a gut-busting hoot!

Here's a wide-angle take of the presser.  Skip ahead to about 7:30 for the best part:

12/26/2017 - 2:44pm This doesn't make a lot of

This doesn't make a lot of sense.

An Over/Under proposition does not get weighted with a probability (or odds). For example, if I take the under on #1, are you going to pay me 3 to 1 if I'm right? Also, one does not bet on the over/under of a probability of a quantity of things, just on the number of the things themselves being above or below a threshhold. Besides, how would one even know what the probability was after the event occurs in order to settle the wager? Moreover, an over/under is only applicable to things that can be counted or measured over a reasonably wide range of values such that a threshhold can be set and adjusted. Otherwise, it should be formulated as a binomial probability of one event occurring (or not occurring), such as with #4. This is not an over/under, it's a binomial probability: "what is the likelihood that Patterson or the field starts vs. Notre Dame?" Also, did you mean "start the season against Notre Dame", or any game in 2018?

The concept of the Over/Under is a straight 50/(50+juice) wager. A line-maker establishes a threshhold that balances the betting market evenly. If one side gets more action, then the threshhold is adjusted to compensate, with the losers taking the hit for the line-maker's juice.

The only scenario that seems approachable as an O/U proposition is #3 (which coincidently was put at 50%, as a normal O/U would be). Realistically, the threshhold would be set at a rank of say, 49.5, to avoid pushes:

  • O/U on rank in final offensive total years = 49.5

The others end up being something like the following (but are not easily amenable to the the O/U construct):

  • O/U on # of 1000-yd. rushers = 1.5
  • O/U on # of QB's that start at least one game next season = 1.5
12/24/2017 - 12:42am I agree with the Four Roses

I agree with the Four Roses Single Barrel (in the tapered rectangular bottle). Mind you the mash bill for this has a high rye content, making it a bit less sweet and more spicy.

Blanton's has the cool spherical bottle with the horsey ornament on the stopper. Makes a really noice gift! I gave to my uncle for his 70th which coincided with the Preakness a few years ago.

Lately, however, I've been very keen on the Eagle Rare, which is much lower rye content, (Knob Creek is comparable). Very smooth neat, and great with a splash of water or over a block of ice.

Bookers is also a low rye mash bill that is very smooth, yet will evaporate your esophagus the proof is so high. It's appropriate for special occasions, the most memorable for me being when my uncle brought it to my father's wake. It really cut through and hit the spot at the time, and helped repair the damages of the day.

12/19/2017 - 3:58pm Aww, isn't that sweet? It's like...

Although I' would surmise that Mr. Bell doesn't look quite as nice as Ms. Minogue does in a wifebeater.

12/16/2017 - 9:53pm MSU hasn’t beaten Michigan

MSU hasn’t beaten Michigan since Harbaugh has been here, however, that fact hasn’t sufficed to keep Michigan from finding ways to lose a couple of the games in that timespan.

12/11/2017 - 6:46pm Straight from the Douche's Nozzle
12/11/2017 - 4:11pm In all fairness, unless the

In all fairness, unless the 2016 class had spots left unfilled (which I don't think was the case), in order to add the two players to the 2016 class two other players would need to be dropped. Most likely the dropped players would be at the same position, particularly regarding QB, which would mean swapping Peters for Patterson.

That said, M still gets both because ostensibly Patterson will count toward the 2018 class, so it would be more appropriate to add Patterson's 2016 rating to the 2018 class, but I don't think 247 allows for that, and who knows what the hell the formula is that they use?!

12/07/2017 - 12:50am I’m sure the big fat NFL

I’m sure the big fat NFL contract Mo hauls in will more than compensate for the lack of any butt-trifling chrome-plated trailer hitch the B1G calls a trophy.

12/05/2017 - 7:34pm I see little reason for even

I see little reason for even an 8-team playoff, much less 16. Having 16 would pretty much eliminate the attraction of the bowl-game-as-vacation-destination concept. Attendance would be terrible, not to mention it would take a month to play all of those rounds. And for what? To have some 3-loss team that gets lucky by say, avoiding injuries after 15 games, and gets a National Championship dropped in its lap? No thanks.

I'm fine with a 4 team playoff, as long as it manages to capture all of the teams that have a rationale going in to be one of the top two teams playing in the final game. There's rarely been more than 4 teams in any year that could make such a claim (only twice since 1998). So far in the CFP era, there hasn't been any team left out that had a reasonable argument to being one of the top two teams. That's the ultimate purpose of the CFP: to pit the best two teams against each other in the final. It's overkill to create a pool of 8 (or even 6) to be able do that, especially with the Committee.

That said, I wouldn't mind going back to the BCS era computer rankings and just taking the top four and leaving it at that. The mind-numbing weekly rankings double-talk from the committee and the googly-eyed ESPN pundits is ... not worthwhile.

Furthermore, the Committee will always say it's their mission to "select the four very best teams", but that's just the polite, politically correct way of saying, "select all the teams that might be considered one of the two best, and beyond that, who gives a shit?"

12/05/2017 - 2:13pm MOAR SEC VULTURE MEAT!

WOOHOO! MOAR SEC VULTURE MEAT!

Vulture 1:  "I never knew they had zebras in Mississippi. We should dine here more often!"

Vulture 2:  "Yea, they sure are tasty..."

Vulture 3:  "Hey fellas! I call the eye ball!"

 

12/05/2017 - 2:03pm Florida de-commit?

Florida de-commit? Woohoo!

MOAR SEC VULTURE MEAT!

12/05/2017 - 2:00pm A 16 Team Playoff?! Bwa-ha-ha!

I see little reason for even an 8-team playoff, much less 16. Having 16 would pretty much eliminate the attraction of the bowl-game-as-vacation-destination concept. Attendance would be terrible, not to mention it would take a month to play all of those rounds. And for what? To have some 3-loss team that gets lucky by say, avoiding injuries after 15 games, get a National Championship dropped in its lap? No thanks.

I'm fine with a 4 team playoff, as long as it manages to capture all of the teams that have a rationale going in to be one of the top two teams playing in the final game. There's rarely been more than 4 teams in any year that could make such a claim (only twice since 1998). So far in the CFP era, there hasn't been any team left out that had a reasonable argument to being one of the top two teams. That's the ultimate purpose of the CFP: to pit the best two teams against each other in the final. It's overkill to create a pool of 8 (or even 6) to be able do that, especially with the Committee.

Furthermore, the Committee will always say it's their mission to "select the four very best teams", but that's just the polite, politically correct way of saying, "select all the teams that might be considered one of the two best, and beyond that, who gives a shit?"

12/04/2017 - 4:09pm You beat me to it!

I remember that issue vividly as well from my Sophomore year.

And don't forget the back page, with the "Choking the Rooster" super-heading:

https://digital.bentley.umich.edu/midaily/mdp.39015071754761/208

That 1985 team was something special. It did not allow a point-after-touchdown until the tenth game of the year!

11/29/2017 - 2:41pm Interim Head Coach.

Interim Head Coach. Ba-dum-bum.

11/29/2017 - 9:06am Kevin Wilson.

Maybe the Vols will go for him now that even the Mullet has turned them down? Assuming they can negotiate a background check with their fan base.

11/29/2017 - 9:00am So much for the Big Ten

So much for the Big Ten saying M would not go to a Florida bowl game this year?

11/28/2017 - 8:37pm He didn’t. All claims as such

He didn’t. All claims as such are based on hearsay (from McQueary) that has been refuted by other testimony, including the person from whom McQ said he heard it.

11/28/2017 - 3:05pm Use over time for the word

Use over time for the word "obdurate":

It's on the upswing!

11/28/2017 - 2:14pm It was Finebaum who started

It was Finebaum who started it up on Sunday morning. Claiming Harbaugh's a better NFL coach, he's underperforming at M, M fans are dissatisfied, he's worn out his welcome, his "antics" are wearing thin, yadda-yadda-yadda ... the usual detached media drivel.

A lifetime contract would make sense in lots of ways. M could front load the salary where the base declines, so that as time progresses, more funds are available to cultivate and retain assistant coaches who might eventually replace JH. M could even structure it so that instead of a buyout, JH is awarded a pension where M just continues to pay him (on the condition he doesn't coach anywhere else) while he transitions to a sort of head coach emeritus.

11/28/2017 - 11:29am Sure that would be great, but

Sure that would be great, but it wouldn’t come close to mitigating the ill effects of those who choose to seek out and vent their own personal frustrations on the players. Frankly, for that reason, I think the school should consider if not an altogether ban on social media accounts for players, then perhaps a blackout period during the season, or some other restrictions on public access to their profiles during that timeframe. There are just too many hot heads with no self control lurking about, and many of the players are still relatively young and impressionable, and are NOT headed toward multimillion dollar NFL contracts. Anyway, this has become an embarrassment that could have deleterious effects on recruiting going forward.

11/27/2017 - 4:11pm Florida de-commit?

Florida de-commit? Woohoo!

MOAR SEC VULTURE MEAT!

11/27/2017 - 3:47pm Saban's 2002 LSU Tigers?

I can only surmise you left out Saban's LSU teams since they predated the emergence of the S&P+ metrics. Of course, Eye of the Tiger's post you referenced mentions this important team w.r.t. the subject of re-building (not to mention, National Championships). I would also bet dollars to donuts that Eye of the Tiger has a dual-allegiance with the Cajun-Brady Hoke-lovin' Bayou Bengals, but I digress.

The 2002 LSU team was in its 3rd season under Saban, and went 8-5 (62%), after going 10-3 the year before. LSU was 8-4 in Saban's 1st season, a 5-win improvement over Gerry DiNardo's last team, who went 3-8. Of course, LSU went 13-1 (93%)  and won the National Championship in Saban's 4th season, which might be argued as a successful rebuild. Leading up to that, during the 2002 rebuilding year, LSU went 1-3 against ranked opponents, including 0-2 against top ten opponents.

Applying your Quality & Margin of Wins schema, the losing percentage of 2002 LSU's victorious opponents was 27% (much worse than UM Team 138). The winning percentage of its losing opponents was 44% (the same as UM Team 138). Also, LSU had an average margin of loss of 18 points (4 pts. worse than UM), and and an average margin of victory of 22 points (4 pts. better than UM).

11/27/2017 - 11:34am LSU. He’d fit right into Matt

LSU. He’d fit right into Matt Canada’s offense there now on the heels of Purdue transfer Danny Etling, who’s been slinging it around there lately.